老王盘币

73000-73500 this is quite critical, breaking through and stabilizing is expected to reach around 78000 $BTC

It is highly likely that I will go near 76K later, and then choose 📉$BTC

The rebound brought by the four-hour level morning star is a rebound in the process of decline, not a reversal. The market is still in a range-bound adjustment. The future short-term trend of the four-hour chart is highly likely to form a head and shoulders bottom pattern. The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in the early morning will bring certain fluctuations, so everyone should pay attention to risk control. The market is simple; as long as you can control yourself and avoid making impulsive and frequent trades, operating around the range will allow you to outperform most people. Don't fall before dawn. The key position for Bitcoin in the medium term is around 85500. If Bitcoin really forms a head and shoulders bottom in the short term, then we need to pay attention to whether the weekly K line will form a head and shoulders top pattern $BTC .

January 26: The adjustment of Bitcoin lasting for more than two months: Is it a correction of wave 4 or the end of wave 5?

Today, let's talk about Lao Wang's perspective on the market trend and the three scenarios for the future development: First, wave 5 starts (wave 4 ends); if the wave 4 correction ends, wave 5 main rise begins: then Bitcoin will break the historical high and reach 145,000-150,000. Second, wave 4 continues; if wave 4 hasn't ended, it will continue to consolidate within the correction range: Third, wave 5 ends (wave A begins) if the weekly K breaks below 82,000. If the weekly continues to break below 78,000, then 126,000 will be the top of wave 5, entering a large wave A. For those in physical trading holding onto a longer cycle, it is advised to continue to observe and wait patiently.

Since the price dropped from 126,000 to 80,000, it has undergone a consolidation lasting for more than two months, and the short-term coin price has reached a critical point at the EMA 100-day moving average. If this position is broken down, we need to prevent the bears from continuing to test previous lows. Those who have entered the market need to get off the bus in time. Personally, I believe that setting up a position near the 100 moving average is still a good value-for-money opportunity. I placed an order for 86,500 last night, as I prefer this contrarian direction. Taking a small risk for a potential gain is still feasible. The MACD moving average line at the four-hour level is turning upward; if the bulls produce a strong bullish candle that engulfs the previous bearish candle, there is a high probability of challenging 90,000 again. Whether it is the end of wave 5 or the correction of wave 4, we can wait patiently. Figure 1 shows the end of wave 5 leading to a large wave A, while Figure 2 shows the correction of wave 4 leading to wave 5: Short-term operators should manage risk well, layout around the range, and get off in time when a breakout occurs: This week, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with a probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at 2.8%; maintaining the current rate at 97.2%
$BTC

As long as the bottom support holds, it will prevent a rebound at the 0.618 position for the big pie, liquidating a wave of bears. This week, it is highly likely that we will continue to consolidate around the EMA 50-100 daily moving averages, so let's continue to patiently wait $BTC

I changed the year 2022 to 2020, brothers, everyone can take a look

History does not repeat itself but it can be quite similar. Looking back at the drop on January 17, 2020, after hitting the bottom, it began to rebound and fluctuate. On March 28, 2023, it peaked at 48200 and started a major bear market. Now looking at November 17, 2025, it also shows a bearish candle indicating a drop, followed by a rebound and consolidation. Bitcoin is highly likely to enter a prolonged consolidation phase before entering a major bear market again. The larger trend has not reversed, so do not be deceived by the rebound; small-scale rebounds are normal. The gap above in Bitcoin futures is in the range of 92900-93700, and I believe that after filling this gap, it will enter a major bear market 📉. Tonight, I will analyze and simulate the future trend for everyone through a recorded video $BTC .

December 18: Market Fluctuations: Victory or Defeat is Approaching?

The daily candlestick for Bitcoin closed with a long upper shadow and a bearish candle: There is a certain selling pressure above. It was mentioned in yesterday's article that it did not break the key support below, which prevents a rebound to around 90. Liquidation of the shorts: Last night, the price reached around 90300, liquidating a wave of shorts, followed by a rapid decline to around 85300, continuing to test the most critical support level for the bulls. There isn't much good to say about the market; this week is likely to follow the same trend mentioned in yesterday's article. Currently, the market is adjusting with accumulation, and in the short term, it appears relatively weak. It is important to note that there will be continued rebounds to liquidate the shorts. The key position below remains around 85000; if this level is broken, Bitcoin will test around 81300. If this level cannot hold, it will continue to drop towards around 76888: Currently, it is still fluctuating within a range, and there is a probability that it will continue to move above 90: For those trading on a larger cycle, there is no need to watch the market every day; take some time to cultivate your mind and patiently wait for that day to come. Yesterday's fear index was 15: Today's fear index has risen by 3 points.

A message for my brothers: Believe in your own rhythm, rather than envying others' “myth of easy profits.”
$$BTC $ETH

December 8: Interest Rate Cuts vs. Hikes: This week and next week will become the focus

As the dovish tones of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts intertwine with the hawkish cries of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes in December, this could be the most complex policy cycle divergence faced by global capital in over a decade. The market has priced in an over 84% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates on December 11.

However, traders' concerns have shifted eastward. A statement from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda that they "will make a decision at their meeting on December 18-19 at their discretion" has caused market expectations for a rate hike in December to soar from 20% to over 80% in just ten days.

On December 11 at 3 AM Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce its December interest rate decision, with the market generally expecting a cut of 25 basis points. If true, this would be the Federal Reserve's third rate cut within 2025, bringing the total cut to 75 basis points: it is estimated that the results announced at 3 AM on December 11, combined with the weekly K-line's bullish close mentioned in yesterday's article, could lead to a rebound this week.

Weekly K-line closes with a doji bullish line: If the major currency does not break below the 100-day moving average and previous lows this month, attention should be paid to whether a weekly K-bottom pattern forming a morning star will emerge here: conversely, if it fails to hold and breaks below, prices will continue to decline. In summary, a bullish weekly close combined with the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is a good signal.

The 12-hour K-line shows a ladder-like upward indicator MACD moving average line forming a golden cross running near the 0 axis. As long as a strong bullish crossover occurs with volume, this rebound will first reach the EMA50 moving average. If it can hold here, the major currency will attack the 12-hour EMA100 and the daily EMA50 moving averages this week, with both prices being quite close to the target level around 97300.

Combining the above data and the technical indicators on the market, this week is primarily bullish: this article is based on personal opinions for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.

May everyone who traverses the market find wisdom in volatility and meet calmness in time. 🌱$BTC

December 7: Upcoming Weekly Close: Can Bitcoin Hold the EMA100 Moving Average in the Short Term?

Long time no see, brothers. It's been a while since I shared Bitcoin's trend with everyone. As expected, Bitcoin's performance will be very similar to history around mid-November: the predicted peak of this bull market at 128000 was off by more than 1000 points: the overall prediction is still good. If you have been following my articles and videos since the end of April, I believe everyone has managed to sell at the top during this round. This week, Bitcoin's price has been fluctuating between 94000 and 86000, with both bulls and bears pulling in different directions. If the bulls want to reverse the weak situation, they must stabilize around the naked K-line at 92000. The second key level is at the weekly KEMA50 moving average: if it breaks and stabilizes here, there is a possibility for the bull market to continue. Conversely, if the entity breaks below the EMA100 daily moving average, Bitcoin will test around 77500. The attached MACD indicator shows a temporary sign of decreasing bearish momentum; it is crucial to see if we can close with a bullish line tomorrow. If we close bullish, there is a high probability of a rebound next week to test 94000 again: some time ago, after the black swan event, Old Wang mentioned in his social circle: Bitcoin is filling the gap. Once the gap is fully filled without large inflows or positive news, Bitcoin will continue to oscillate downwards: overall, the entire market is in a weak state, with no signs of bullish divergence in the short to medium term: to position for a larger cycle, we need to continue waiting patiently; the time is not yet right: bulls are long and bears are short: everything has its certain rules: Figures 2 and 3 show the trend I predicted for my brothers back in April #比特币VS代币化黄金 $BTC