LIVEEuroChartCreator
@EuroChartCreator
Focus on #BTCEUR and #BNBEUR charts, occasionally also EURUSD and STOXX. Big fan of #Elliottwave.
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BTC Aug.2024 review
#BTCEUR remains in bull flag since the March ATH, with a quick hit-n-reverse ~45k #EUR which is well telegraphed before July 24Q2 review. While the path toward that Aug. low is more complexe then I initially expected, it exactly fits the corrective characteristics of a 4th #Elliottwave labeled in yellow.
To the upside, 90k region is a very good conservative target, it would make orange (5) roughly 0.618 of (3), and yellow V 0.618 of III. Additionally 2.236 is a common target for a 5th wave, in this case for the yellow V. 2.618 or 116k can be an outsize target but we will only evaluate its possibility after the March ATH is taken out.
For now the Aug. low is important to watch as it happened to test the lower limit of the most bullish interpretation. By no means the longterm bullish potential breaks if BTC gets lower, but making a higher low in Sep. would be a nice confirmation of an immediate bull run. Under 40k EUR would be a red flag for bulls and under 36k the impulsive upside potential will no longer be viable. Longterm hodlers can use the 50/55WMA combo or the 89WMA as guidance to manage risk.
Looking closer, the action off the Aug. low is rather corrective, but that's ok as we are looking for a wave 1 which can be an LD, and the entire 5th can also be an ED. For shortterm traders 50k-47k is a decent long entry and fibs support for bulls, with defined risk of 46.9k stop. Bears on the other hand can use 55k and 56k as aggressive short stops.
TLDR: maintain $BTC target 90k #euro as long as 45k holds.
To the upside, 90k region is a very good conservative target, it would make orange (5) roughly 0.618 of (3), and yellow V 0.618 of III. Additionally 2.236 is a common target for a 5th wave, in this case for the yellow V. 2.618 or 116k can be an outsize target but we will only evaluate its possibility after the March ATH is taken out.
For now the Aug. low is important to watch as it happened to test the lower limit of the most bullish interpretation. By no means the longterm bullish potential breaks if BTC gets lower, but making a higher low in Sep. would be a nice confirmation of an immediate bull run. Under 40k EUR would be a red flag for bulls and under 36k the impulsive upside potential will no longer be viable. Longterm hodlers can use the 50/55WMA combo or the 89WMA as guidance to manage risk.
Looking closer, the action off the Aug. low is rather corrective, but that's ok as we are looking for a wave 1 which can be an LD, and the entire 5th can also be an ED. For shortterm traders 50k-47k is a decent long entry and fibs support for bulls, with defined risk of 46.9k stop. Bears on the other hand can use 55k and 56k as aggressive short stops.
TLDR: maintain $BTC target 90k #euro as long as 45k holds.
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BNB longterm review 24Q2
#BinanceTurns7 and I remember vividly the days BNBUSDT was trading under 10 bucks around the 2020 crash. For reference, $BNB went ICO in July 2017 for $0.15 or 2700BNB/ETH. As per the yellow fibs below, BNB went parabolic to the May 2021 top and got through a flat #Elliottwave correction till June 2022, where a new rally phase as per the orange fibs can be observed.
That context is important when evaluating #BNBEUR as trading against #EUR didn't start until 2020 so we miss some info for the yellow fibs. Nonetheless the long term posture of both pairs is rather bullish, since parabolic move typically does not end with a long flat top. This sideways consolidation of more than 3 years is more likely building a firm base for more upside.
Looking closer at the orange fibs, one can see the strong resistance around 580 euro where BNB had a failed breakout, slightly missed the 1.618 extension. The reversal was swift into the low 400 region where support was expected:
6/14 BNBEUR hourly 530 vs 5806/20 BNBEUR still below 580 cluster
The action since the March 2024 top has been very messy, as demonstrated on the daily chart, but one can argue for yet another sideways consolidation after a parabolic rise.
The reaction off this July low at 421.2 has been constructive so far but I will not be surprised by a lower low. My bias remains bullish above 350 EUR, going under that will be a red flag and under 300 I will have to look for an exit.
#BNBAnalysis
That context is important when evaluating #BNBEUR as trading against #EUR didn't start until 2020 so we miss some info for the yellow fibs. Nonetheless the long term posture of both pairs is rather bullish, since parabolic move typically does not end with a long flat top. This sideways consolidation of more than 3 years is more likely building a firm base for more upside.
Looking closer at the orange fibs, one can see the strong resistance around 580 euro where BNB had a failed breakout, slightly missed the 1.618 extension. The reversal was swift into the low 400 region where support was expected:
6/14 BNBEUR hourly 530 vs 5806/20 BNBEUR still below 580 cluster
The action since the March 2024 top has been very messy, as demonstrated on the daily chart, but one can argue for yet another sideways consolidation after a parabolic rise.
The reaction off this July low at 421.2 has been constructive so far but I will not be surprised by a lower low. My bias remains bullish above 350 EUR, going under that will be a red flag and under 300 I will have to look for an exit.
#BNBAnalysis
#BTCEUR looks more constructive now with arguably an #Elliottwave impulsive structure. A 5th wave push into 54k #EUR will be a much better signal but $BTC should hold above 48.5k #euro for the immediate bull case to be viable. Personally I'm already moving the stop up to 49.8k for at least 75% of the long position to protect more gain. Dropping under 50k without reaching 54k first will practically invalidate the impulsive character of this really.
LIVEEuroChartCreator
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#BTCEUR got into the hourly buy zone as expected, stop can now be moved up to last low ~47.4k #EUR or your entry break-even. If still wish to initiate a non-zero position, one might delve into 15min and long against 47.7k tight stop. Given the action off the low is not clearly #Elliottwave impulsive, $BTC bear certainly has good argument to short against 50.5k/51.2k/54k #euro depending on risk tolerance.
#BTCEUR got into the hourly buy zone as expected, stop can now be moved up to last low ~47.4k #EUR or your entry break-even. If still wish to initiate a non-zero position, one might delve into 15min and long against 47.7k tight stop. Given the action off the low is not clearly #Elliottwave impulsive, $BTC bear certainly has good argument to short against 50.5k/51.2k/54k #euro depending on risk tolerance.
LIVEEuroChartCreator
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BTC Aug.2024 review
#BTCEUR remains in bull flag since the March ATH, with a quick hit-n-reverse ~45k #EUR which is well telegraphed before July 24Q2 review. While the path toward that Aug. low is more complexe then I initially expected, it exactly fits the corrective characteristics of a 4th #Elliottwave labeled in yellow.
To the upside, 90k region is a very good conservative target, it would make orange (5) roughly 0.618 of (3), and yellow V 0.618 of III. Additionally 2.236 is a common target for a 5th wave, in this case for the yellow V. 2.618 or 116k can be an outsize target but we will only evaluate its possibility after the March ATH is taken out.
For now the Aug. low is important to watch as it happened to test the lower limit of the most bullish interpretation. By no means the longterm bullish potential breaks if BTC gets lower, but making a higher low in Sep. would be a nice confirmation of an immediate bull run. Under 40k EUR would be a red flag for bulls and under 36k the impulsive upside potential will no longer be viable. Longterm hodlers can use the 50/55WMA combo or the 89WMA as guidance to manage risk.
Looking closer, the action off the Aug. low is rather corrective, but that's ok as we are looking for a wave 1 which can be an LD, and the entire 5th can also be an ED. For shortterm traders 50k-47k is a decent long entry and fibs support for bulls, with defined risk of 46.9k stop. Bears on the other hand can use 55k and 56k as aggressive short stops.
TLDR: maintain $BTC target 90k #euro as long as 45k holds.
To the upside, 90k region is a very good conservative target, it would make orange (5) roughly 0.618 of (3), and yellow V 0.618 of III. Additionally 2.236 is a common target for a 5th wave, in this case for the yellow V. 2.618 or 116k can be an outsize target but we will only evaluate its possibility after the March ATH is taken out.
For now the Aug. low is important to watch as it happened to test the lower limit of the most bullish interpretation. By no means the longterm bullish potential breaks if BTC gets lower, but making a higher low in Sep. would be a nice confirmation of an immediate bull run. Under 40k EUR would be a red flag for bulls and under 36k the impulsive upside potential will no longer be viable. Longterm hodlers can use the 50/55WMA combo or the 89WMA as guidance to manage risk.
Looking closer, the action off the Aug. low is rather corrective, but that's ok as we are looking for a wave 1 which can be an LD, and the entire 5th can also be an ED. For shortterm traders 50k-47k is a decent long entry and fibs support for bulls, with defined risk of 46.9k stop. Bears on the other hand can use 55k and 56k as aggressive short stops.
TLDR: maintain $BTC target 90k #euro as long as 45k holds.
#BNBEUR reach 0.618 retracement of the Jun.'24 ATH, arguably an almost full #Elliottwave 5up as per yellow fibs suggested and the angle of ascent is flattening. In the short term 470 #EUR is a key signal for whether it strikes a temporary top.
While I'm still mindful of the risk of the pink fibs A=C, the relatively muted pullbacks along the rally off the Aug. low reminds us $BNB is still in a bullmarket overall, as long as that Aug. low holds, so the 420 region support becomes important for all timeframes now.
Also the weakening USD is positive for all dollar denominated assets, it will be interesting to see how crypto and #euro react relatively. #BNBAnalysis
While I'm still mindful of the risk of the pink fibs A=C, the relatively muted pullbacks along the rally off the Aug. low reminds us $BNB is still in a bullmarket overall, as long as that Aug. low holds, so the 420 region support becomes important for all timeframes now.
Also the weakening USD is positive for all dollar denominated assets, it will be interesting to see how crypto and #euro react relatively. #BNBAnalysis
LIVEEuroChartCreator
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#BNBEUR is taking its time for consolidation, aggressive bears should have their stop down to 492/486 #EUR while bulls can have some limit orders ready between 440-455, with a defined stop at 437 for the #Elliottwave azure path. If $BNB rises above 492 #euro one can attempt a break-out trade. Larger degree support remains around 400 for the yellow path.
#BTCEUR remains in range and after the spike yesterday 49k #EUR has increasingly better fibs alignment for the #Elliottwave yellow ABC of 2. Just be mindful that $BTC is still in a larger degree bull market so aggressive bear should keep position size slight and stop tight at 55k/57k. Aggressive bull can certainly attempt long against 52k but I much prefer a 49k/48k/47k entry with 46k stop.
Also note the weaking dollar as #euro is trying to break out, we might get a rising tide lifts all boats situation for the coming months.
Also note the weaking dollar as #euro is trying to break out, we might get a rising tide lifts all boats situation for the coming months.
LIVEEuroChartCreator
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The 53k #EUR stop has spared bulls many hassle as #BTCEUR is still hanging around the same level after it triggered.Bears on the other hand should have their stop down to 56.5k and take partial profit ~54.5k. The #Elliottwave azure path is at its limit as ii of 3 is getting deep and the reaction off the 51k low is quite overlapping. The range high & low of the past 24h can be decent stop with speculative RR for both sides, while 50k #euro region remains larger degree support for $BTC as action off the 57k top has been clearly corrective.
The 53k #EUR stop has spared bulls many hassle as #BTCEUR is still hanging around the same level after it triggered.Bears on the other hand should have their stop down to 56.5k and take partial profit ~54.5k. The #Elliottwave azure path is at its limit as ii of 3 is getting deep and the reaction off the 51k low is quite overlapping. The range high & low of the past 24h can be decent stop with speculative RR for both sides, while 50k #euro region remains larger degree support for $BTC as action off the 57k top has been clearly corrective.
LIVEEuroChartCreator
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#BTCEUR has #Elliottwave 3up(yellow), tighten up your stop to 53k #EUR if went long, 57k is now a reasonable stop to short against. $BTC
#BNBEUR is taking its time for consolidation, aggressive bears should have their stop down to 492/486 #EUR while bulls can have some limit orders ready between 440-455, with a defined stop at 437 for the #Elliottwave azure path. If $BNB rises above 492 #euro one can attempt a break-out trade. Larger degree support remains around 400 for the yellow path.
LIVEEuroChartCreator
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#BNBEUR holding 450 #EUR will be immediately bullish for the azure path, but I much more prefer a deeper pullback into #Elliottwave yellow (ii) for cheaper $BNB
Either way bull can try to long against 437 or 393, while aggressive bear can try to short against 505 and 535.
Either way bull can try to long against 437 or 393, while aggressive bear can try to short against 505 and 535.
$EUR has an official daily close above 1.10 per ECB data, #EURUSD should no longer drop under 1.077 for the immediately bullish path and preferably not under 1.088 to keep the pressure up for the #Elliottwave 1-2-i-ii set-up. Move your stop to at least break-even if entered from lower, otherwise 1.094 and 1.088 are interesting *intraday* stop to long #euro against #dollar or wait for a weekly close above 200wma, a failed break-out i.e. a weekly close below 200wma after a previous close above it, like in July 2023 will be a red flag for bulls.
Back on Binance EURUSDT seems to be respecting fib ratios, eyeing 1.16 as first #EUR upside target.
Back on Binance EURUSDT seems to be respecting fib ratios, eyeing 1.16 as first #EUR upside target.
#BNBEUR holding 450 #EUR will be immediately bullish for the azure path, but I much more prefer a deeper pullback into #Elliottwave yellow (ii) for cheaper $BNB
Either way bull can try to long against 437 or 393, while aggressive bear can try to short against 505 and 535.
Either way bull can try to long against 437 or 393, while aggressive bear can try to short against 505 and 535.
LIVEEuroChartCreator
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#BNBEUR rally exceeding 0.618 retracement off the July top and closing in 2.236 extension off the Aug low, #Elliottwave 5up(yellow) almost complete, or already further along as 1 of C(azure).
Any sizable correction should now hold 390 #EUR for the immediate bullish outlook, aggressive bull can also try 440 long stop while aggressive bear should watch 515 and 555 for short stop. $BNB #BNBAnalysis
Any sizable correction should now hold 390 #EUR for the immediate bullish outlook, aggressive bull can also try 440 long stop while aggressive bear should watch 515 and 555 for short stop. $BNB #BNBAnalysis
#BTCEUR has #Elliottwave 3up(yellow), tighten up your stop to 53k #EUR if went long, 57k is now a reasonable stop to short against. $BTC
LIVEEuroChartCreator
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#BTCEUR now has a decent looking #Elliottwave 5up, watching 58k #EUR for a potential top then holding 51k or 46k for the bullish interpretations. Bear on the other hand can try to bet against the 57.5k top or wait for 58k to strike against 61.5k.
$BTC weekly keeps looking bullish as long-term review shows.
$BTC weekly keeps looking bullish as long-term review shows.
#BNBEUR rally exceeding 0.618 retracement off the July top and closing in 2.236 extension off the Aug low, #Elliottwave 5up(yellow) almost complete, or already further along as 1 of C(azure).
Any sizable correction should now hold 390 #EUR for the immediate bullish outlook, aggressive bull can also try 440 long stop while aggressive bear should watch 515 and 555 for short stop. $BNB #BNBAnalysis
Any sizable correction should now hold 390 #EUR for the immediate bullish outlook, aggressive bull can also try 440 long stop while aggressive bear should watch 515 and 555 for short stop. $BNB #BNBAnalysis
LIVEEuroChartCreator
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#BNBEUR looks 3 #Elliottwave off the low while one can certainly argue for 5 waves. The proof of the pudding is in holding 378 #EUR which can be the stop for aggressive long.
Stop of short taken from above should at least partially be moved down to 471/490/501, these are also potentially shortable levels.
Stop of short taken from above should at least partially be moved down to 471/490/501, these are also potentially shortable levels.
#BTCEUR now has a decent looking #Elliottwave 5up, watching 58k #EUR for a potential top then holding 51k or 46k for the bullish interpretations. Bear on the other hand can try to bet against the 57.5k top or wait for 58k to strike against 61.5k.
$BTC weekly keeps looking bullish as long-term review shows.
$BTC weekly keeps looking bullish as long-term review shows.
LIVEEuroChartCreator
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While it certainly feels like pickpocketed as stop got breach but recovered quickly, trading plan need to be followed with discipline. Bigger picture though 45k #EUR bottom for #BTCEUR has been there for months and the bullish #Elliottwave pattern is now rather full on the weekly. Notwithstanding a minor lower low, the weekly close of this week will need to be treated with respect as a close below 50 weeks SMA ~46k will hurt the longterm bullish trend. Closing above 55k is a good signal of the 5th wave starting.
#BNBEUR looks 3 #Elliottwave off the low while one can certainly argue for 5 waves. The proof of the pudding is in holding 378 #EUR which can be the stop for aggressive long.
Stop of short taken from above should at least partially be moved down to 471/490/501, these are also potentially shortable levels.
Stop of short taken from above should at least partially be moved down to 471/490/501, these are also potentially shortable levels.
LIVEEuroChartCreator
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1. That's why you always need a stop for trading.
2. Unlike BTC, #BNBEUR didn't post a convincing impulse #Elliottwave off the July low and is now approaching 0.618 retracement ~468 #EUR w/o much support on the quoted levels, be prudent if taking this long trade, lower size but wider stop: layer in between 470-450 w/ 430 or 420 stop gives 7%-9% defined risk.
3. Short stop can now be safely move down to 500 or even 490, or both to take profit in tranches.
4. Be mindful of the red pah potential on the daily, if 420 breaks measured move lower targets 350 without invalidating the bullish potential of $BNB to new ATH. #BNB_Market_Update
2. Unlike BTC, #BNBEUR didn't post a convincing impulse #Elliottwave off the July low and is now approaching 0.618 retracement ~468 #EUR w/o much support on the quoted levels, be prudent if taking this long trade, lower size but wider stop: layer in between 470-450 w/ 430 or 420 stop gives 7%-9% defined risk.
3. Short stop can now be safely move down to 500 or even 490, or both to take profit in tranches.
4. Be mindful of the red pah potential on the daily, if 420 breaks measured move lower targets 350 without invalidating the bullish potential of $BNB to new ATH. #BNB_Market_Update
While it certainly feels like pickpocketed as stop got breach but recovered quickly, trading plan need to be followed with discipline. Bigger picture though 45k #EUR bottom for #BTCEUR has been there for months and the bullish #Elliottwave pattern is now rather full on the weekly. Notwithstanding a minor lower low, the weekly close of this week will need to be treated with respect as a close below 50 weeks SMA ~46k will hurt the longterm bullish trend. Closing above 55k is a good signal of the 5th wave starting.
LIVEEuroChartCreator
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#BTCEUR getting close to 54k #EUR & potential #Elliottwave 2 of V support region, layer in long positions between 55k-52k with 51k stop gives defined risk of max. 2.5k or less than 5%, conservative upside target roughly 80k-90k.
#EURUSD on watch for the #Elliottwave 1-2-i-ii breakout, rejected on first trial and need to hold above mid triangle to keep the pressure up, below 1.075 threatens to breakdown instead.
Can't make this up but the $EUR USDC trading pair keeps making 0.618 swings. Overall #euro seems to be bull flagging against #dollar on the hourly, need to reassess if red line breaks. #EUR
Can't make this up but the $EUR USDC trading pair keeps making 0.618 swings. Overall #euro seems to be bull flagging against #dollar on the hourly, need to reassess if red line breaks. #EUR
LIVEEuroChartCreator
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#EURUSD closing July around 1.085 in an increasingly tight triangle, looks like still more chop ahead. Watching 1.103 for breakout to the upside; while I'm not expecting #EUR to breakdown, under 1.068 will be a red flag and 1.055 stop for the #Elliottwave 1-2-i-ii setup.
The $EUR USDC trading pair with all the slippage is yet at another 0.618 level, see if it can find support between 1.079-1.072 for the immediate bullish path.
Maintain strong bullish bias for the #euro against the #dollar on the weekly until 1.01 is threatened.
The $EUR USDC trading pair with all the slippage is yet at another 0.618 level, see if it can find support between 1.079-1.072 for the immediate bullish path.
Maintain strong bullish bias for the #euro against the #dollar on the weekly until 1.01 is threatened.
1. That's why you always need a stop for trading.
2. Unlike BTC, #BNBEUR didn't post a convincing impulse #Elliottwave off the July low and is now approaching 0.618 retracement ~468 #EUR w/o much support on the quoted levels, be prudent if taking this long trade, lower size but wider stop: layer in between 470-450 w/ 430 or 420 stop gives 7%-9% defined risk.
3. Short stop can now be safely move down to 500 or even 490, or both to take profit in tranches.
4. Be mindful of the red pah potential on the daily, if 420 breaks measured move lower targets 350 without invalidating the bullish potential of $BNB to new ATH. #BNB_Market_Update
2. Unlike BTC, #BNBEUR didn't post a convincing impulse #Elliottwave off the July low and is now approaching 0.618 retracement ~468 #EUR w/o much support on the quoted levels, be prudent if taking this long trade, lower size but wider stop: layer in between 470-450 w/ 430 or 420 stop gives 7%-9% defined risk.
3. Short stop can now be safely move down to 500 or even 490, or both to take profit in tranches.
4. Be mindful of the red pah potential on the daily, if 420 breaks measured move lower targets 350 without invalidating the bullish potential of $BNB to new ATH. #BNB_Market_Update
LIVEEuroChartCreator
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Moving #BNBEUR stop up to 515 #EUR with expanded flat #Elliottwave (azure labels) as the most immediate bullish path, but great RR either way for both aggressive long and short.
Look for 500 and 480 below if 515 breaks. #BNBAnalysis
Binance just announced that "Launchpool Supports DeFi BNB Assets in Binance Web3 Wallet" which should support $BNB future growth, so keep watching out for buy-the-dip chance in the weeks ahead but of course we're facing FED decision today with potentially extremly high volatility. #BNBToken
Look for 500 and 480 below if 515 breaks. #BNBAnalysis
Binance just announced that "Launchpool Supports DeFi BNB Assets in Binance Web3 Wallet" which should support $BNB future growth, so keep watching out for buy-the-dip chance in the weeks ahead but of course we're facing FED decision today with potentially extremly high volatility. #BNBToken
#BTCEUR getting close to 54k #EUR & potential #Elliottwave 2 of V support region, layer in long positions between 55k-52k with 51k stop gives defined risk of max. 2.5k or less than 5%, conservative upside target roughly 80k-90k.
LIVEEuroChartCreator
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#BTCEUR July'24 review: BTC chose the orange path, briefly peeked below 58k #EUR and is currently defending 0.382 retracement of the July rally. If this mini pullback on the 15min chart holds 59.5k to make a higher high, preferably above 61k we will have a clean impulsive #Elliottwave to work with.
Bigger picture on the hourly, aggressive short should move stop down to 62k while 58k becomes interesting for aggressive long.
More context for July:
- from July 22 : "We're now at the 2.618 extension off the July low coincides with the 0.764 retracement off the March ATH. Expect more resistance for $BTC " => signaled limited upside potential;
- from July 26 : "I believe a better chance to buy $BTC is going to present itself soon" => it was 62k then and went briefly above 64k, getting sub 60k now;
- from July 29 : "the 0.618 retracement of this July rally currently coincides with the Apr.2021 top around 54k" => 52k-54k should be strong support;
So with weekly levels from BTCEUR 24Q2 review still applies, we now have a more immediate bullish setup to work with. As long as 51k holds, new ATH should be seen by 24Q4.
Bigger picture on the hourly, aggressive short should move stop down to 62k while 58k becomes interesting for aggressive long.
More context for July:
- from July 22 : "We're now at the 2.618 extension off the July low coincides with the 0.764 retracement off the March ATH. Expect more resistance for $BTC " => signaled limited upside potential;
- from July 26 : "I believe a better chance to buy $BTC is going to present itself soon" => it was 62k then and went briefly above 64k, getting sub 60k now;
- from July 29 : "the 0.618 retracement of this July rally currently coincides with the Apr.2021 top around 54k" => 52k-54k should be strong support;
So with weekly levels from BTCEUR 24Q2 review still applies, we now have a more immediate bullish setup to work with. As long as 51k holds, new ATH should be seen by 24Q4.
#BTCEUR July'24 review: BTC chose the orange path, briefly peeked below 58k #EUR and is currently defending 0.382 retracement of the July rally. If this mini pullback on the 15min chart holds 59.5k to make a higher high, preferably above 61k we will have a clean impulsive #Elliottwave to work with.
Bigger picture on the hourly, aggressive short should move stop down to 62k while 58k becomes interesting for aggressive long.
More context for July:
- from July 22 : "We're now at the 2.618 extension off the July low coincides with the 0.764 retracement off the March ATH. Expect more resistance for $BTC " => signaled limited upside potential;
- from July 26 : "I believe a better chance to buy $BTC is going to present itself soon" => it was 62k then and went briefly above 64k, getting sub 60k now;
- from July 29 : "the 0.618 retracement of this July rally currently coincides with the Apr.2021 top around 54k" => 52k-54k should be strong support;
So with weekly levels from BTCEUR 24Q2 review still applies, we now have a more immediate bullish setup to work with. As long as 51k holds, new ATH should be seen by 24Q4.
Bigger picture on the hourly, aggressive short should move stop down to 62k while 58k becomes interesting for aggressive long.
More context for July:
- from July 22 : "We're now at the 2.618 extension off the July low coincides with the 0.764 retracement off the March ATH. Expect more resistance for $BTC " => signaled limited upside potential;
- from July 26 : "I believe a better chance to buy $BTC is going to present itself soon" => it was 62k then and went briefly above 64k, getting sub 60k now;
- from July 29 : "the 0.618 retracement of this July rally currently coincides with the Apr.2021 top around 54k" => 52k-54k should be strong support;
So with weekly levels from BTCEUR 24Q2 review still applies, we now have a more immediate bullish setup to work with. As long as 51k holds, new ATH should be seen by 24Q4.
LIVEEuroChartCreator
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Hope you enjoyed the chop while #BTCEUR was completing a larger degree 5th #Elliottwave labeled in orange with a 64k #EUR top as of writing.
Now a highly speculative setup presents itself as per azure labels, though I personally am more confident with the orange interpretation, the RR in azure is insane with tight stop 59k slightly under the Nov.2021 top.
Either way, the action off the July low is constructive for a new ATH sooner than I previously expected in my $BTC 24Q2 review, as long as 52k holds. For reference, the 0.618 retracement of this July rally currently coincides with the Apr.2021 top around 54k.
So until breakout to new ATH, prudent longterm holders still need to be mentally prepared for a revisit under 50k: as per the 24Q2 review, even a drop into 45k can be very bullish with a 6-12 months outlook.
Now a highly speculative setup presents itself as per azure labels, though I personally am more confident with the orange interpretation, the RR in azure is insane with tight stop 59k slightly under the Nov.2021 top.
Either way, the action off the July low is constructive for a new ATH sooner than I previously expected in my $BTC 24Q2 review, as long as 52k holds. For reference, the 0.618 retracement of this July rally currently coincides with the Apr.2021 top around 54k.
So until breakout to new ATH, prudent longterm holders still need to be mentally prepared for a revisit under 50k: as per the 24Q2 review, even a drop into 45k can be very bullish with a 6-12 months outlook.
#EURUSD closing July around 1.085 in an increasingly tight triangle, looks like still more chop ahead. Watching 1.103 for breakout to the upside; while I'm not expecting #EUR to breakdown, under 1.068 will be a red flag and 1.055 stop for the #Elliottwave 1-2-i-ii setup.
The $EUR USDC trading pair with all the slippage is yet at another 0.618 level, see if it can find support between 1.079-1.072 for the immediate bullish path.
Maintain strong bullish bias for the #euro against the #dollar on the weekly until 1.01 is threatened.
The $EUR USDC trading pair with all the slippage is yet at another 0.618 level, see if it can find support between 1.079-1.072 for the immediate bullish path.
Maintain strong bullish bias for the #euro against the #dollar on the weekly until 1.01 is threatened.
LIVEEuroChartCreator
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EURUSD 24Q2 review
Take the super long term #EURUSD chart with a grain of salt, but beside the usual fib levels, the region around 1.15 also seems interesting.
For the next few months or even years, the Jul.2006 top is much more relevant. Off that top the #euro falls against the #dollar in a very corrective fashion and I can argue for a #Elliottwave diagonal being completed. As long as 1.05 holds, immediate path to the upside should reach 1.16 minimally, while 1.24 seems to be a strong resistance.
Back on Binance one can take advantage of the Zero Fee Promotion for the EUR/USDC trading pair. Even with sippage due to low volume, it still has a very interesting structure on the hourly: a flat correction retracing 0.618. I would watch the last two lows, 1.06 and 1.03, closely if attempting long #EUR
$EUR $USDC
For the next few months or even years, the Jul.2006 top is much more relevant. Off that top the #euro falls against the #dollar in a very corrective fashion and I can argue for a #Elliottwave diagonal being completed. As long as 1.05 holds, immediate path to the upside should reach 1.16 minimally, while 1.24 seems to be a strong resistance.
Back on Binance one can take advantage of the Zero Fee Promotion for the EUR/USDC trading pair. Even with sippage due to low volume, it still has a very interesting structure on the hourly: a flat correction retracing 0.618. I would watch the last two lows, 1.06 and 1.03, closely if attempting long #EUR
$EUR $USDC
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The Fed meeting is today, ,
At the moment, the expectations are as follows:
â« ~64% - the rate will be reduced by 0.50%.
â« ~36% â the rate will be reduced by 0.25%.
Unexpectedly, the market expects a 0.50% decline, which is not fully priced in. Therefore, such a move by the Fed could trigger a short-term rise in the market. But 0.25%, given market expectations, could, on the contrary, lead to a short-term decline.
At the same time, former head of BitMEX Arthur Hayes said from the stage of Token2049 that the Fed will collapse the market by lowering the key interest rate.
What are your expectations?
The rate will be reduced by 0.25% âđ„
The rate will be reduced by 0.50% â đ
Pause / raise âđ±
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