Web3投研江南雨
前Web3投资机构研究员。目前全职做合约超短线交易，一天交易几十次。推特同名。
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About the AI public chain tau.net (token name AGRS)
Tau
Tau is a universe built from your ideas, suggestions and knowledge. It is the first-ever decentralized blockchain social network capable of gaining consensus from its users and updating its own software in real time, allowing all users to control what the software does for them.
All in all, Tau can aggregate the ideas, suggestions and knowledge of various users, and upgrade its own code in real time, using logical artificial intelligence to bridge the gap between humans and machines.
Notice the difference? If you have recently learned about artificial intelligence and used ChatGPT, you will know that most AI uses machine learning, which relies on huge Internet data sets and makes it difficult to grasp the correct meaning and knowledge of interpersonal communication.
What about logic-based Al? It is more effective than machine learning in:
1. Explainability: Logic-based AI provides clear and transparent explanations of how decisions are made, which can be useful in certain applications, such as legal or medical diagnostics. In these application scenarios, accountability and explainability are important.
2. Predictability: Logic-based systems are deterministic, meaning that given the same input, they always produce the same output.
3. Efficiency: For simple tasks, logic-based AI can be faster than machine learning algorithms because they require no training to make decisions based on a small number of well-defined rules.
4. Adaptability: Logic-based AI can be easily modified and updated to adapt to new knowledge or environmental changes.
These advantages form Tau's moat. Artificial intelligence using logic has uniquely created a model of communication between people with machines as the mediator.
A team of PhDs and professors with expertise in artificial intelligence, logic and mathematics has been working on Tau since 2015. Founder and CEO Ohad Asor is a software developer and machine learning expert with a background in mathematics and experience at GE Healthcare.
Tau
Tau is a universe built from your ideas, suggestions and knowledge. It is the first-ever decentralized blockchain social network capable of gaining consensus from its users and updating its own software in real time, allowing all users to control what the software does for them.
All in all, Tau can aggregate the ideas, suggestions and knowledge of various users, and upgrade its own code in real time, using logical artificial intelligence to bridge the gap between humans and machines.
Notice the difference? If you have recently learned about artificial intelligence and used ChatGPT, you will know that most AI uses machine learning, which relies on huge Internet data sets and makes it difficult to grasp the correct meaning and knowledge of interpersonal communication.
What about logic-based Al? It is more effective than machine learning in:
1. Explainability: Logic-based AI provides clear and transparent explanations of how decisions are made, which can be useful in certain applications, such as legal or medical diagnostics. In these application scenarios, accountability and explainability are important.
2. Predictability: Logic-based systems are deterministic, meaning that given the same input, they always produce the same output.
3. Efficiency: For simple tasks, logic-based AI can be faster than machine learning algorithms because they require no training to make decisions based on a small number of well-defined rules.
4. Adaptability: Logic-based AI can be easily modified and updated to adapt to new knowledge or environmental changes.
These advantages form Tau's moat. Artificial intelligence using logic has uniquely created a model of communication between people with machines as the mediator.
A team of PhDs and professors with expertise in artificial intelligence, logic and mathematics has been working on Tau since 2015. Founder and CEO Ohad Asor is a software developer and machine learning expert with a background in mathematics and experience at GE Healthcare.
Some people say that Bitcoin has already dropped to the right level and should start rising.
But I don't think so.
There are three types of people who buy and sell Bitcoin:
(1) People who need Bitcoin not for investment purposes, but to buy or sell.
(2) People who treat Bitcoin as something similar to gold for investment. Building positions or closing positions.
(3) Speculators.
If there were no speculators, at the current price level, Bitcoin should be rising.
But speculators manipulate the market.
The market is unreasonable; just because Bitcoin is already very cheap doesn't mean it won't drop.
Currently, although the price of Bitcoin is significantly lower than it should be, the pace of capital entering the market is slow.
At this time, large speculators can easily make money by shorting. Speculators don't care whether the Bitcoin price is reasonable; as long as they can make money by shorting, they will maliciously crash the market.
Therefore, I think there is a high probability it will go towards $45,000.
#比特币 $BTC
But I don't think so.
There are three types of people who buy and sell Bitcoin:
(1) People who need Bitcoin not for investment purposes, but to buy or sell.
(2) People who treat Bitcoin as something similar to gold for investment. Building positions or closing positions.
(3) Speculators.
If there were no speculators, at the current price level, Bitcoin should be rising.
But speculators manipulate the market.
The market is unreasonable; just because Bitcoin is already very cheap doesn't mean it won't drop.
Currently, although the price of Bitcoin is significantly lower than it should be, the pace of capital entering the market is slow.
At this time, large speculators can easily make money by shorting. Speculators don't care whether the Bitcoin price is reasonable; as long as they can make money by shorting, they will maliciously crash the market.
Therefore, I think there is a high probability it will go towards $45,000.
#比特币 $BTC
#AI $TAO Well-known VC fund Pantera says that this year's biggest opportunity in the WEB3 track has also seen explosive growth points:
The year of AIAGENT, it is not that Crypto needs AI, but rather AI needs Crypto,
To be more precise: what AI truly needs is a payment system between machines.
1️⃣ Payment issues:
AI Agents will certainly require a large amount of interaction, the trading market for AI assistants may reach trillions in the coming years, but if automatic trading, API calls, purchasing computing power, and buying data are needed, the traditional banking system is almost unusable.
To achieve permissionless + programmable payments, currently only crypto can solve this.
2️⃣ Global settlement issues
AI is a global network,
At that time, your AI agent in Germany and my AI agent in South Korea, the payment system must be part of the international financial system.
Blockchain is inherently a cross-border settlement layer.
3️⃣ Digital scarce assets
The biggest problem in the AI era is: proving ownership of data, models, and computing power.
Token / blockchain is the solution.
The year of AIAGENT, it is not that Crypto needs AI, but rather AI needs Crypto,
To be more precise: what AI truly needs is a payment system between machines.
1️⃣ Payment issues:
AI Agents will certainly require a large amount of interaction, the trading market for AI assistants may reach trillions in the coming years, but if automatic trading, API calls, purchasing computing power, and buying data are needed, the traditional banking system is almost unusable.
To achieve permissionless + programmable payments, currently only crypto can solve this.
2️⃣ Global settlement issues
AI is a global network,
At that time, your AI agent in Germany and my AI agent in South Korea, the payment system must be part of the international financial system.
Blockchain is inherently a cross-border settlement layer.
3️⃣ Digital scarce assets
The biggest problem in the AI era is: proving ownership of data, models, and computing power.
Token / blockchain is the solution.
Jane Street pays traders $400k to achieve this
Top quant experts at Polymarket use the same method
Immediately stop trading when calibration fails
**Brier Score** can accurately tell you when to stop.
Formula: \bm{\sum (\text{predicted\_probability} - \text{actual\_outcome})^2}
• Perfect prediction = 0.00
• Random blind guessing = 0.25
Why Wall Street values it so much
• Citadel tests this in interviews.
• Top traders at Polymarket self-check every 50 trades.
Even if you have a 70% win rate, your probability calibration can still be terrible.
For example:
You claim to have 90% confidence in 10 trades.
If you only win 6 in the end, you were overconfident.
Your so-called 90% confidence is actually only 60%.
The Brier Score will immediately expose this illusion.
Discipline of top experts
• Quant firms will fire traders who cannot calibrate probabilities.
• The same goes for the top 20 traders at Polymarket: they track the deviation of predicted probabilities from actual outcomes.
• When the Brier Score starts to rise, they will stop trading.
This is not out of fear, but because math tells them: your edge has disappeared.
The dividing line between amateurs and professionals
Imagine this: you made $5000 in a week, but your Brier Score jumped from 0.12 to 0.19.
• Quant experts: decisively exit.
• Amateur retail traders: continue trading and lose back all their earnings.
Why do most traders ignore this?
Because tracking the Brier Score feels like doing extra homework. You might think, "Whether I win or lose, don't I have a sense of it?"
Wrong.
• Calibration is poor but you won: it means you were just lucky.
• Calibration is good but you lost: it means you were just unlucky.
Only the Brier Score can tell you the truth.
The real moat
Trading is not about "predicting correctly," but about **"knowing when you predicted incorrectly."**
The moment your prediction no longer matches reality, you should stop betting. Quant experts have established a system that measures not only profit but also their own accuracy. #预测市场
Top quant experts at Polymarket use the same method
Immediately stop trading when calibration fails
**Brier Score** can accurately tell you when to stop.
Formula: \bm{\sum (\text{predicted\_probability} - \text{actual\_outcome})^2}
• Perfect prediction = 0.00
• Random blind guessing = 0.25
Why Wall Street values it so much
• Citadel tests this in interviews.
• Top traders at Polymarket self-check every 50 trades.
Even if you have a 70% win rate, your probability calibration can still be terrible.
For example:
You claim to have 90% confidence in 10 trades.
If you only win 6 in the end, you were overconfident.
Your so-called 90% confidence is actually only 60%.
The Brier Score will immediately expose this illusion.
Discipline of top experts
• Quant firms will fire traders who cannot calibrate probabilities.
• The same goes for the top 20 traders at Polymarket: they track the deviation of predicted probabilities from actual outcomes.
• When the Brier Score starts to rise, they will stop trading.
This is not out of fear, but because math tells them: your edge has disappeared.
The dividing line between amateurs and professionals
Imagine this: you made $5000 in a week, but your Brier Score jumped from 0.12 to 0.19.
• Quant experts: decisively exit.
• Amateur retail traders: continue trading and lose back all their earnings.
Why do most traders ignore this?
Because tracking the Brier Score feels like doing extra homework. You might think, "Whether I win or lose, don't I have a sense of it?"
Wrong.
• Calibration is poor but you won: it means you were just lucky.
• Calibration is good but you lost: it means you were just unlucky.
Only the Brier Score can tell you the truth.
The real moat
Trading is not about "predicting correctly," but about **"knowing when you predicted incorrectly."**
The moment your prediction no longer matches reality, you should stop betting. Quant experts have established a system that measures not only profit but also their own accuracy. #预测市场
Some say that the current candlestick pattern of Bitcoin is very similar to that of 2022, $BTC .
In 2022, a typical "bull trap" appeared, where there was a rebound in a downtrend, followed by a continued decline.
I believe that in addition to the candlesticks, the macro environment should also be considered.
Now, unlike in 2022, U.S. regulatory policies are favorable for cryptocurrency, interest rates will decrease in 2026, and monetary policy is becoming more accommodative. Concerns about inflation also benefit Bitcoin, and ETFs bring a large influx of capital. The wealth of the Trump family is deeply tied to cryptocurrency.
Therefore, this time, the probability of continuing to decline is only 50%.
Although a 50% probability seems to say nothing. But if we only look at the candlestick pattern, the obvious downtrend allows us to judge that the probability of decline is 70%.
Why is there still a 50% probability of decline? Because there is a possibility:
Although the current macro environment is favorable for Bitcoin, the buying funds are gradually entering. At this time, short sellers may massively short the market, pushing the price down when the inflow of buying funds is relatively slow. #比特币 $BTC
In 2022, a typical "bull trap" appeared, where there was a rebound in a downtrend, followed by a continued decline.
I believe that in addition to the candlesticks, the macro environment should also be considered.
Now, unlike in 2022, U.S. regulatory policies are favorable for cryptocurrency, interest rates will decrease in 2026, and monetary policy is becoming more accommodative. Concerns about inflation also benefit Bitcoin, and ETFs bring a large influx of capital. The wealth of the Trump family is deeply tied to cryptocurrency.
Therefore, this time, the probability of continuing to decline is only 50%.
Although a 50% probability seems to say nothing. But if we only look at the candlestick pattern, the obvious downtrend allows us to judge that the probability of decline is 70%.
Why is there still a 50% probability of decline? Because there is a possibility:
Although the current macro environment is favorable for Bitcoin, the buying funds are gradually entering. At this time, short sellers may massively short the market, pushing the price down when the inflow of buying funds is relatively slow. #比特币 $BTC
#预测市场 introduces a method to bet on sports events in prediction markets.
Betting on sports events is similar to playing options.
Simply betting on which team will win is very difficult to profit from. Because the betting price for strong teams is high, and even if you win, you won't earn much.
There is a way to play that is similar to spread trading in options.
Specifically, it goes as follows:
Team A competes against Team B. Team A is the strong team. The market on PolyMarket shows that Team A winning is $0.8.
This means that betting on Team A requires a payment of $0.8, and if Team A indeed wins, you can only gain a profit of $0.2, which is too low.
There is another type of market where Team A's score is compared to Team B's after deducting N points, at which point the probabilities are roughly 5:5.
This is called a point spread. The result after the strong team gives points is compared to the weak team.
Friends who have played sports betting must be familiar with this type of play.
At this point, you can combine the win/loss bets with the point spread betting.
For example, I can establish the following positions.
Position X: bet on Team A winning, with a cost of $0.8.
Position Y: bet that Team B's score is greater than Team A's score minus N points, with a cost of $0.5.
Based on the match results, my gains and losses are as follows:
(1) Team B wins. Position X loses $0.8, Position Y wins $0.5. The net loss is $0.3.
(2) Team A wins, but Team A's score minus N points is less than Team B's score. Position X wins $0.2, Position Y wins $0.5. A total profit of $0.7.
(3) Team A's score minus N points is greater than Team B's score. Position X wins $0.2, Position Y loses $0.5. The net loss is $0.3.
So, in cases (1) and (3), I lose $0.3.
In case (2), I earn $0.7.
The profit and loss ratio is 7:3, which is quite high.
Then, through analysis, you can determine whether the probability of situation (2) occurring is high or not.
Especially since the probability of situation (1) occurring is very low, because the market predicts that the weak team has only a 20% chance of winning. Team A has a significant lead.
Through analysis, if you find that the probability of Team B winning is almost nonexistent, you can rule out situation (1). This way, you can gain an advantage in probability.
Betting on sports events is similar to playing options.
Simply betting on which team will win is very difficult to profit from. Because the betting price for strong teams is high, and even if you win, you won't earn much.
There is a way to play that is similar to spread trading in options.
Specifically, it goes as follows:
Team A competes against Team B. Team A is the strong team. The market on PolyMarket shows that Team A winning is $0.8.
This means that betting on Team A requires a payment of $0.8, and if Team A indeed wins, you can only gain a profit of $0.2, which is too low.
There is another type of market where Team A's score is compared to Team B's after deducting N points, at which point the probabilities are roughly 5:5.
This is called a point spread. The result after the strong team gives points is compared to the weak team.
Friends who have played sports betting must be familiar with this type of play.
At this point, you can combine the win/loss bets with the point spread betting.
For example, I can establish the following positions.
Position X: bet on Team A winning, with a cost of $0.8.
Position Y: bet that Team B's score is greater than Team A's score minus N points, with a cost of $0.5.
Based on the match results, my gains and losses are as follows:
(1) Team B wins. Position X loses $0.8, Position Y wins $0.5. The net loss is $0.3.
(2) Team A wins, but Team A's score minus N points is less than Team B's score. Position X wins $0.2, Position Y wins $0.5. A total profit of $0.7.
(3) Team A's score minus N points is greater than Team B's score. Position X wins $0.2, Position Y loses $0.5. The net loss is $0.3.
So, in cases (1) and (3), I lose $0.3.
In case (2), I earn $0.7.
The profit and loss ratio is 7:3, which is quite high.
Then, through analysis, you can determine whether the probability of situation (2) occurring is high or not.
Especially since the probability of situation (1) occurring is very low, because the market predicts that the weak team has only a 20% chance of winning. Team A has a significant lead.
Through analysis, if you find that the probability of Team B winning is almost nonexistent, you can rule out situation (1). This way, you can gain an advantage in probability.
This is the exact reason why Bitcoin is skyrocketing (Pumping) right now:
• Binance bought 5,539 BTC
• Coinbase bought 4,199 BTC
• Kraken bought 2,028 BTC
• Satoshi Whale bought 2,775 BTC
• Galaxy Digital bought 2,555 BTC
Major exchanges and funds have bought over $4.2 billion worth of $BTC in the past 30 minutes!
This is a purely coordinated pump action!!#比特币
• Binance bought 5,539 BTC
• Coinbase bought 4,199 BTC
• Kraken bought 2,028 BTC
• Satoshi Whale bought 2,775 BTC
• Galaxy Digital bought 2,555 BTC
Major exchanges and funds have bought over $4.2 billion worth of $BTC in the past 30 minutes!
This is a purely coordinated pump action!!#比特币
Trading insights on Polymarket's BTC 5Min contracts
As a short-term trader who trades cryptocurrency contracts dozens of times a day, I recently started researching the BTC 5Min contracts on Polymarket.
Here are my insights:
*The robots that make big money in this market mainly engage in micro order book arbitrage. Ordinary manual traders like us cannot profit using the same method.
*As a subjective trader, I have personally found two methods that can make money:
(1) When the market opens and the price is around 50 cents, if I subjectively judge that there is a 60% probability of it rising or falling, I bet in the direction I predict. If I'm correct, I earn 50 cents; if I'm wrong, I lose 50 cents. As long as the number of correct bets is more, I can make money. If I trade for 4 hours a day and make 20 bets, getting 12 right and 8 wrong, the risk-reward ratio is decent.
(2) If UP or Down falls to around 20 cents, and I subjectively judge that there is no less than a 50% probability of a reversal, I buy around 20 cents. Then, I sell when it rises to 50 cents.
If I'm wrong, I lose 20 cents; if I bet correctly, I earn 30 cents. For example, if UP falls to 20 cents, with 2 minutes left until close, and if the market is random, there's a 50% chance of a reversal. If a reversal happens and the price rises back to 50 cents, I can sell it. #预测市场龙头polymarket
As a short-term trader who trades cryptocurrency contracts dozens of times a day, I recently started researching the BTC 5Min contracts on Polymarket.
Here are my insights:
*The robots that make big money in this market mainly engage in micro order book arbitrage. Ordinary manual traders like us cannot profit using the same method.
*As a subjective trader, I have personally found two methods that can make money:
(1) When the market opens and the price is around 50 cents, if I subjectively judge that there is a 60% probability of it rising or falling, I bet in the direction I predict. If I'm correct, I earn 50 cents; if I'm wrong, I lose 50 cents. As long as the number of correct bets is more, I can make money. If I trade for 4 hours a day and make 20 bets, getting 12 right and 8 wrong, the risk-reward ratio is decent.
(2) If UP or Down falls to around 20 cents, and I subjectively judge that there is no less than a 50% probability of a reversal, I buy around 20 cents. Then, I sell when it rises to 50 cents.
If I'm wrong, I lose 20 cents; if I bet correctly, I earn 30 cents. For example, if UP falls to 20 cents, with 2 minutes left until close, and if the market is random, there's a 50% chance of a reversal. If a reversal happens and the price rises back to 50 cents, I can sell it. #预测市场龙头polymarket
Cointelegraph reports:
The selling pressure of altcoins has reached extreme levels not seen in five years. On centralized exchanges, altcoins have been in a net selling state for 13 consecutive months, and there are limited signs of institutional accumulation.
However, looking at the daily candlestick charts of several blue-chip altcoins (XRP, SOL, SUI), the trading volume has not increased in the past week, and the prices are in a sideways state.
So the report mentioned above about the selling pressure reaching extreme levels not seen in five years is already in the past. In the market, past facts are of little use.
Therefore, I am slightly bearish on altcoins, but not extremely bearish.
If Bitcoin finds a bottom around $50,000, altcoins will surge.
$XRP
The selling pressure of altcoins has reached extreme levels not seen in five years. On centralized exchanges, altcoins have been in a net selling state for 13 consecutive months, and there are limited signs of institutional accumulation.
However, looking at the daily candlestick charts of several blue-chip altcoins (XRP, SOL, SUI), the trading volume has not increased in the past week, and the prices are in a sideways state.
So the report mentioned above about the selling pressure reaching extreme levels not seen in five years is already in the past. In the market, past facts are of little use.
Therefore, I am slightly bearish on altcoins, but not extremely bearish.
If Bitcoin finds a bottom around $50,000, altcoins will surge.
$XRP
Bitcoin's rise to $120,000 is somewhat related to the Trump family. The Trump family has made a fortune through cryptocurrencies, so they will actively promote related policies.
It is said that Trump’s eldest son is a popular candidate for president three years from now.
Previously, Vance was mentioned as a strong candidate, but in the eyes of MAGA, Trump’s eldest son is the true heir to the MAGA ideology.
Moreover, the eldest son is quite articulate and has a good appearance. A typical image of a white elite.
If, three years from now, Trump’s eldest son is elected, it would be a significant boost for cryptocurrencies.
It is said that Trump’s eldest son is a popular candidate for president three years from now.
Previously, Vance was mentioned as a strong candidate, but in the eyes of MAGA, Trump’s eldest son is the true heir to the MAGA ideology.
Moreover, the eldest son is quite articulate and has a good appearance. A typical image of a white elite.
If, three years from now, Trump’s eldest son is elected, it would be a significant boost for cryptocurrencies.
ETH is currently forming a very typical triangle. The upward fluctuation from the bottom is Wave A, the triangle being formed is Wave B, and the next is the upward Wave C. After completing Waves A, B, and C, there will be a continuation of a decline.
During the decline, it is highly likely to break through the lowest price on February 6. #以太坊 $ETH
During the decline, it is highly likely to break through the lowest price on February 6. #以太坊 $ETH
The environment surrounding Bitcoin is changing, so historical data may not accurately reflect the future.
The greatest value of Bitcoin is that it is digital gold. Storing gold is cumbersome, security costs are high, and it can be stolen. Gold is suitable for governments and large compliant financial institutions.
Ordinary wealthy individuals, if they hold a large amount of gold at home, must worry about being robbed.
Gold is also not easy to carry.
Wealthy individuals entrust large precious metal warehouses to store their gold, which carries trust risks and cannot ensure asset privacy.
Bitcoin is the best value storage tool in the world.
Currently, with the improvement of cryptocurrency-related regulations and systems, the environment for the public to use cryptocurrencies is also becoming more and more complete. Next, Bitcoin will at least not experience a significant drop. #比特币 $BTC
The greatest value of Bitcoin is that it is digital gold. Storing gold is cumbersome, security costs are high, and it can be stolen. Gold is suitable for governments and large compliant financial institutions.
Ordinary wealthy individuals, if they hold a large amount of gold at home, must worry about being robbed.
Gold is also not easy to carry.
Wealthy individuals entrust large precious metal warehouses to store their gold, which carries trust risks and cannot ensure asset privacy.
Bitcoin is the best value storage tool in the world.
Currently, with the improvement of cryptocurrency-related regulations and systems, the environment for the public to use cryptocurrencies is also becoming more and more complete. Next, Bitcoin will at least not experience a significant drop. #比特币 $BTC
At the current stage, external factors are driving the Bitcoin market. These external factors include the yen carry trade, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, the U.S. stock market trends, and the fluctuations in gold prices. Looking only at the Bitcoin candlestick chart cannot provide a definitive judgment. There are two possibilities: it has already formed a bottom or it has not yet.
My prediction is: currently, it is a pullback in a downward trend, pulling back to just under $80,000, then resuming the decline. If the decline exceeds the low price of $60,000, it will drop to around $50,000, which is considered a diamond bottom. Alternatively, if it declines to around $60,000 and stops falling, that would indicate a secondary bottom formation.
If you have patience, you can currently buy spot and hold it; just be sure not to use leverage.
#比特币 $BTC
My prediction is: currently, it is a pullback in a downward trend, pulling back to just under $80,000, then resuming the decline. If the decline exceeds the low price of $60,000, it will drop to around $50,000, which is considered a diamond bottom. Alternatively, if it declines to around $60,000 and stops falling, that would indicate a secondary bottom formation.
If you have patience, you can currently buy spot and hold it; just be sure not to use leverage.
#比特币 $BTC
The current price of Bitcoin is quite delicate. It may drop again to around $50,000. The $50,000 mark should be a strong bottom.
If it doesn't break the recent low of $60,000, it won't rise immediately and will likely stay flat for a long time.
Once the price breaks through the upper limit of the flat range, it can be a good time to go long.
I am currently holding one-third of my position to go long.
What drives significant price changes are macro big events.
#比特币
If it doesn't break the recent low of $60,000, it won't rise immediately and will likely stay flat for a long time.
Once the price breaks through the upper limit of the flat range, it can be a good time to go long.
I am currently holding one-third of my position to go long.
What drives significant price changes are macro big events.
#比特币
Going long on the AZTEC contract
I went long on the AZTEC contract on Binance, and the AZTEC token will have its TGE at 3 PM Beijing time today.
Aztec Network is a privacy-first Layer 2 network built on Ethereum, utilizing Zero-Knowledge Proofs technology, aimed at bringing 'programmable privacy' to blockchain.
Specifically, Aztec's products and core functionalities can be summarized in the following aspects:
1. Core product positioning: Privacy Layer 2 Rollup (zk-Rollup)
Aztec is not just a simple privacy transfer tool (like the early Tornado Cash), but a complete second-layer network. It acts like an 'invisible layer' covering Ethereum, allowing users to enjoy Ethereum's security while gaining privacy protection and lower transaction costs.
Aztec Network is a privacy-first Layer 2 network built on Ethereum, utilizing Zero-Knowledge Proofs technology, aimed at bringing 'programmable privacy' to blockchain.
Specifically, Aztec's products and core functionalities can be summarized in the following aspects:
1. Core product positioning: Privacy Layer 2 Rollup (zk-Rollup)
Aztec is not just a simple privacy transfer tool (like the early Tornado Cash), but a complete second-layer network. It acts like an 'invisible layer' covering Ethereum, allowing users to enjoy Ethereum's security while gaining privacy protection and lower transaction costs.
Ethereum's new upgrade ERC-8004: Your personal AI private secretary has arrived!
🚀
In the past, playing DeFi, staking ETH, and dealing with meme coins required opening wallets, connecting to official websites, repeatedly authorizing, and switching chains, with so many steps that it drove people crazy. With ERC-8004, you just need to say: 'Help me earn the highest yield from the 10 ETH sitting idle in my wallet' or 'Recently the hottest meme coin on X, help me buy 100 dollars worth' and the AI Agent will automatically run errands in the background, execute contracts, and complete all operations while you only see the final result. Even cooler, ERC-8004 provides a universal protocol that allows different developers and users' AI secretaries to securely 'recognize each other' and collaborate. The blockchain has truly become humanized, allowing even those who do not understand technology to easily get started. The future is not about us learning blockchain, but rather AI 'rolling up' the technology for us. Ethereum is no longer just a ledger, but is about to become a super financial brain that can think and get things done. #加密货币
🧠💰
🚀
In the past, playing DeFi, staking ETH, and dealing with meme coins required opening wallets, connecting to official websites, repeatedly authorizing, and switching chains, with so many steps that it drove people crazy. With ERC-8004, you just need to say: 'Help me earn the highest yield from the 10 ETH sitting idle in my wallet' or 'Recently the hottest meme coin on X, help me buy 100 dollars worth' and the AI Agent will automatically run errands in the background, execute contracts, and complete all operations while you only see the final result. Even cooler, ERC-8004 provides a universal protocol that allows different developers and users' AI secretaries to securely 'recognize each other' and collaborate. The blockchain has truly become humanized, allowing even those who do not understand technology to easily get started. The future is not about us learning blockchain, but rather AI 'rolling up' the technology for us. Ethereum is no longer just a ledger, but is about to become a super financial brain that can think and get things done. #加密货币
🧠💰
Looking at the K-line, Bitcoin's price is still below the downtrend line. Continue to short. Currently, it's a half position short.
As for how much it will drop, it will at least drop to 80,000 USDT.
In terms of the macro economy, there is a Federal Reserve interest rate decision meeting on Wednesday, no rate cuts will be made, but the market is focused on the content of the Federal Reserve Chairman's speech after the meeting, whether it hints that inflation pressures continue to exist (= the pace of rate cuts will slow down) or that inflation pressures are easing.
Also, there are quite a few U.S. stock earnings reports being released this week. I expect many positive outcomes.
The trend of the yen's exchange rate appreciation still exists. The closing of yen arbitrage trades may lead hedge funds to sell Bitcoin to repay yen loans. It is reported that hedge funds have borrowed about $380 billion in yen with high leverage. How much of that is invested in Bitcoin is unknown. But the scale is at most a few tens of billions of dollars.
If positions are to be closed, U.S. stocks and gold should also decline. Therefore, the impact of closing yen arbitrage trades on Bitcoin can be observed simultaneously with U.S. stocks and gold.
#比特币
As for how much it will drop, it will at least drop to 80,000 USDT.
In terms of the macro economy, there is a Federal Reserve interest rate decision meeting on Wednesday, no rate cuts will be made, but the market is focused on the content of the Federal Reserve Chairman's speech after the meeting, whether it hints that inflation pressures continue to exist (= the pace of rate cuts will slow down) or that inflation pressures are easing.
Also, there are quite a few U.S. stock earnings reports being released this week. I expect many positive outcomes.
The trend of the yen's exchange rate appreciation still exists. The closing of yen arbitrage trades may lead hedge funds to sell Bitcoin to repay yen loans. It is reported that hedge funds have borrowed about $380 billion in yen with high leverage. How much of that is invested in Bitcoin is unknown. But the scale is at most a few tens of billions of dollars.
If positions are to be closed, U.S. stocks and gold should also decline. Therefore, the impact of closing yen arbitrage trades on Bitcoin can be observed simultaneously with U.S. stocks and gold.
#比特币
#比特币 How to view the trend of Bitcoin currently?
The high point formed on January 5 near 94800 is the support line.
The broken high point becomes the support line for the pullback, which is basic knowledge of technical analysis.
The trading volume on January 13 and 14 was also quite high, at a qualified level.
The current pullback is still relatively mild.
Overall, the upward trend has not been broken.
In terms of the external environment, the US stock market is maintaining an upward trend due to TSMC's positive performance, and the state of interest rate cuts and monetary easing of the dollar is also favorable for Bitcoin.
Conclusion: Go long on Bitcoin with half a position and see where it stands at the end of the month.
The high point formed on January 5 near 94800 is the support line.
The broken high point becomes the support line for the pullback, which is basic knowledge of technical analysis.
The trading volume on January 13 and 14 was also quite high, at a qualified level.
The current pullback is still relatively mild.
Overall, the upward trend has not been broken.
In terms of the external environment, the US stock market is maintaining an upward trend due to TSMC's positive performance, and the state of interest rate cuts and monetary easing of the dollar is also favorable for Bitcoin.
Conclusion: Go long on Bitcoin with half a position and see where it stands at the end of the month.
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