K线人生汤米

| Hot News |
1: 【UBS Group CEO: Blockchain is the future of traditional banking, integration is inevitable】
2. 【Chairman of the U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee Releases New Draft of Cryptocurrency Market Structure Legislation, CFTC to Gain New Regulatory Authority】$BTC
How do Bitcoin and Ethereum look today? Last night was a roller coaster ride, with a direct drop and then a sharp rise. The hourly chart showed a sudden plunge with a large bearish candle, followed by three bullish candles, and then another unexpected surge. It all happened so fast that it caught many off guard. Those who had tight stop-losses were basically wiped out. Ethereum dropped to a low of 2860, then quickly rebounded to 3060, swinging 200 points. Bitcoin's movement was even more exaggerated, dropping to around 87200 last night before bouncing back above 90000. This kind of market behavior is what we've always emphasized: if the entry point isn't right, you won't just miss out on profits; you'll also get hit from both sides. In the past 24 hours, the entire network saw liquidations amounting to $875 million. This isn't just a purely technical move; it's the news that ignited the emotions, further amplified by high leverage, directly increasing the volatility.#比特币2026年价格预测

| Hot News |
1: [Trump may announce the new Federal Reserve Chairman before the end of January, and the U.S. may not be taking the potential trade war with the EU seriously.]
2: [CZ: The NYSE's introduction of a tokenized platform is good news for cryptocurrencies and crypto trading platforms.]
What do we think of Bitcoin and Ethereum today? From the drop on the morning of the 19th to the sideways movement on the 20th, a second crash occurred yesterday afternoon, which also confirmed what we mentioned yesterday: the entire market is still dominated by bears. As geopolitical tensions around Greenland escalate, cracks appear in U.S.-European ally relations, and Japanese bonds face heavy selling, this calm is being rapidly shattered. Last night, the three major U.S. stock indices opened lower collectively, and the global market turned green. The expanding market volatility indicates a change in the previous selective ignorance towards a series of shock events. Previously, whether it was the White House's tough actions on Venezuela or renewed pressure on the Federal Reserve, the financial market showed strong resilience. But the latest trends indicate that the market's capacity to bear is gradually being consumed. #比特币走势分析

|Hot news|
1: [The independence of the Federal Reserve faces a 'century trial': credibility at stake]
2: [The Reserve Bank of India proposes interconnectivity of BRICS countries' digital currencies for cross-border payments]
How to view Bitcoin and Ethereum today? This recent pullback on Saturday is not just a simple decline, as Bitcoin has just retested the critical 12-hour line. The current real-time price of Bitcoin is 93000, and Ethereum's real-time price is 3211. To conclude, today we won't speculate on the strength of the rebound or the bottom-fishing position. If it holds, it will rebound; if it doesn't, it will continue to drop. The overall market's rebound is still far from the anticipated bull market. Market sentiment remains very poor, with significant pressure at Bitcoin 98000-100000, unless there is extremely strong buying power to forcefully push prices up, or the downtrend will continue. Data from options has verified this point, with implied volatility continuing to decline, and skew remaining negatively biased. The large volume of bearish options continues to account for the largest transaction ratio, all signaling a weakening market.#比特币走势分析

Hot news|
1：【David Sacks: Legislation on crypto market structure is closer to passage than ever, and the crypto industry should use the current buffer period to resolve remaining differences】
2：【Hassett: If appointed as Federal Reserve Chair, I will commit to maintaining independence】
What to make of Bitcoin and Ethereum today? On Thursday, Bitcoin hit a high near 98000 before experiencing a short-term pullback, reaching a low of around 94200, a decline of 3.72%. I mentioned in my Thursday article that this wave of rising prices was a typical market bull restart driven by sentiment. Friday's pullback seemed more like a digestion of the momentum from Thursday when traders couldn't help but chase the highs. #加密市场观察

Hot News & Updates |
1: [Vitalik: Decentralization Revival Is Coming]
2: [Spanish Bank Bankinter Has Invested in Crypto Exchange Bit2Me]
How to view Bitcoin and Ethereum today? Those who've been following Tommy are already counting profits, while those hesitating are still asking what happened. In the evening, Bitcoin once again hit a two-month high, peaking at 97,700, while Ethereum has reclaimed 3,400 after two months—breaking through all previous key resistance levels. As I indicated on January 8th, the real breakout has only just begun. Although the market has pulled back slightly after the midday session, many bears are rushing in. I clearly and publicly stated in the morning that any pullback is an opportunity for those who haven't yet acted. Right now, there's no need to over-focus on technical analysis, because this move is clearly driven by market sentiment, marking the restart of the bull market. After last week's consolidation, when everyone had lost all emotion, I repeatedly warned: as long as support holds, the structure isn't broken. Looking back now, we see that the real surge often happens precisely during the most unexciting phase. #MarketRebound

Hot News |
1: [SEC Chair: Confident (Clarity Bill) Will Be Submitted to the President for Signature This Year]
2: [Thai Prime Minister Orders Tighter Regulation on Gold Trading and Digital Assets]
How to view Bitcoin and Ethereum today? Last night, after days of consolidation, Bitcoin finally broke through. I've repeatedly warned over the past week: a narrowing 4-hour range with no breakdown below support means a big move is brewing. Let's start with the macro view: the past few days in the crypto space have been packed with high-density events—so many developments it's hard to keep up. This could potentially shift the entire financial market's macro trend and trigger a new wave of movement. A few days ago, CZ, founder of Binance, tweeted that the crypto super cycle is coming. Many are wondering if this is just another call to buy, old talk recycled, or if the great bull market is back. But I actually believe he truly sees something we haven't yet realized. When Fed Chair Powell openly criticized Trump, and if the situation escalates to the point where Powell is actually convicted, the independence of the Federal Reserve would be undermined. This would be the biggest black swan of 2026. It wouldn't just cause short-term volatility—it could trigger a systemic collapse of confidence in the financial system. The sharp rise in gold prices and the frantic gold buying by central banks worldwide aren't coincidences—they're preemptive defenses. Such a level of chaos isn't good for financial markets. Markets truly thrive on clear rules, predictable policies, and stable order. Right now, is it a super cycle or super chaos? Tommy believes it's more like super chaos. But we must remember: every super cycle is born from repeated episodes of super chaos. The hallmark of the chaotic phase is extremely high volatility, a lot of fake moves, and very high costs for mistakes. It doesn't reward recklessness—it punishes侥幸. It rewards long-termists who truly understand market structure.#MarketRebound

|Top News|
1: [The US Senate will consider a cryptocurrency market structure bill this week (January 15), which could be a major turning point for regulation.]
2: [South Korea ends 9-year ban on corporate cryptocurrencies, allowing listed companies to invest 5% of their equity in cryptocurrency purchases]
How to view Bitcoin and Ethereum today? Many people have been confused by the volatile market these past few days. Tommy's predicted range of 90400-91500 yesterday was successfully captured, yielding 1000 points. Ethereum's range of 3080-3180 also yielded 100 points. Recently, the incremental funds in the Bitcoin and Ethereum markets have been limited. Coupled with the surge in A-shares and small-cap stocks, speculative funds have been withdrawn from the market. The A-shares market has seen 17 consecutive days of gains, with daily trading volume exceeding 3 trillion again. Bitcoin is currently in a range-bound consolidation after a pullback confirmation. Structurally, it's not advisable to blindly chase the rally or panic sell. #加密市场观察

|Hot News|
1: [Thirty Democratic lawmakers including Pelosi jointly push for the 'Prediction Market Anti-Insider Trading' bill]
2: [European high-net-worth investors have accepted buying European real estate through crypto assets]
Bitcoin and Ethereum outlook today: Bitcoin has been consolidating in a narrow range over the weekend without significant volatility. The large coin remains in a tight range of 90,000-91,000, while Ethereum is consolidating between 3,060 and 3,100. Although there was a brief breakout signal yesterday evening, the 91,500 level still presents resistance. In the previous article, Tommy pointed out the short-term multi-directional trading opportunity within the small range over the weekend, which was successfully captured. This week, we still need to monitor whether Bitcoin breaks through the upper resistance at 90,400-91,500 or holds the support below, to determine the new medium-term direction. For Ethereum, the 3,080-3,150 range is key to watch.#加密市场观察 $BTC

$BTC
|Hot News|
1: [Russian Ruble Stablecoin A7A5 Supply Surges by $90 Billion, Exceeding USDT and USDC]|
2: [U.S. Crypto Market Structure Bill Negotiations Hit Roadblock: DeFi Regulation and Stablecoin Yields Main Points of Disagreement]
Bitcoin and Ethereum today: the recent pullback on Thursday was actually a very standard daily-level correction. The BTC price dropped to a low of 89,200, while ETH reached a low of 3,050—both levels align with key 4-hour support zones. We've repeatedly highlighted these levels in previous articles. If following Tommy's trading plan, most traders aren't panicking now but are already profiting. The market reaction to Thursday's initial jobless claims data and last night's non-farm employment data showed minimal short-term impact. The afternoon move yesterday already cleared short-term market sentiment, and the overall structure hasn't deteriorated. Therefore, this weekend, we just need to remember: focus on buying during pullbacks, with proper stop-losses placed below.

Hot News |
1: [Negotiations on the U.S. Crypto Market Structure Bill Hit a Roadblock: DeFi Regulation and Stablecoin Yields Are Key Points of Disagreement]
2: [The selling spree in Japan's bond market continues into the new year]
What to expect from Bitcoin and Ethereum today? The opening-day rally for Bitcoin may already be over, with the rebound halted at 95,000, and the downward correction continues. From this week's market performance, Bitcoin spot ETFs remain under continuous outflows.

Let's start with a story about MicroStrategy. As the first company in the Bitcoin era, its main business is holding Bitcoin. Recently, its stock has been continuously declining, even dropping to the level of the MSCI index. It's commonly said that this stock should be removed from the index list, but yesterday MSCI suddenly stated that they will temporarily not remove it. As soon as this statement was made, MicroStrategy's stock surged 6% after hours. At present, this only indicates that MicroStrategy is temporarily not in immediate danger. However, from a long-term perspective, the risks have not disappeared. Even so, after this turmoil, market confidence in the company has significantly weakened.

Hot News |
1. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (in thousands) for the week ending January 3 will be released at 21:30 on January 8
2. U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (in thousands), seasonally adjusted for December, will be released at 21:30 on January 9
Review: After a半个月 of consolidation, BTC delivered a strong start to the Year of the Horse in 2026, surging from 87,800 to a peak of 94,700 within a week—an increase of 7,500 points, or +8.6%. Tether also rose from 2,930 to around 3,310, reaching the target level we highlighted before the holiday. Although the market showed impressive performance in the first week of 2026, the current consolidation phase still lacks sustained liquidity supply. The supply-demand balance remains relatively unbalanced. Additionally, the U.S. Senate is scheduled to review the Cryptocurrency Market Structure Bill on January 15. This could trigger a real breakout. The outcome of this legislation will determine BTC and Tether's status—BTC will no longer be seen merely as an alternative asset, but rather become a core component of the global financial system. If passed, this legislation could elevate BTC to a true sovereign-level asset, placing it at the center of the global asset stage. Our focus for the second week of 2026 will be on economic data releases as well as political developments in the U.S. Stop blindly chasing those few candlesticks on the chart—don't just follow price movements blindly. #BTC#加密市场观察

| Hot News |
1: [Bitwise CIO: Bitcoin returns may trend steadily upward over the next decade, but explosive growth is unlikely]
2: [Strategy to establish a $2.2 billion cash reserve, strategy shifts to defensive mode]
How do you see Bitcoin and Ethereum today? The US stock market is closed on Saturdays and Sundays, and market liquidity is still relatively low. The fluctuations in the market remain quite small. The 4-hour and 12-hour charts are narrowing. Even though Bitcoin is facing the largest liquidation day in history, it has not led to significant market fluctuations. Bitcoin is still consolidating in the range of 87200-88000, with intraday fluctuations of less than 1000 points. Ethereum is also hovering in the range of 2920-2960, with intraday fluctuations of less than 50 points. Fortunately, those with heavy positions will not face liquidation risks, but the awkwardness is that the intraday trading space is too small. Therefore, Tommy reminded everyone on Friday to wait if we are not at key levels, and on Saturday and Sunday, we chose to be lazy and take a break. The 3000 points have not been reached, and the 2970 that I repeatedly mentioned last week is currently the short-term resistance level. Currently, the entire market is affected by gold's capital absorption, and overall liquidity remains weak. Bitcoin is currently in the accumulation phase, and there are no obvious trend signals given.

Hot News |
1: [Bitcoin payment system fully launched in Lugano, Switzerland; residents can pay taxes with cryptocurrency]
2: [Barclays: Expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates in July and December next year]
How to view Bitcoin and Ethereum today? First, let me share a real success story. Last night, a fan gave me feedback that in less than a month, they made $17,000 from an investment of $1,400, solely using the pressure support levels I provided in my articles as a reference. I was truly happy to hear this. It shows that my daily sharing is valuable and can actually help you make money. The U.S. stock market continues to be closed for a few days during Christmas, and liquidity remains low. I also took a break yesterday because the market was completely within Tommy's operational range, so even on Christmas Eve, we emphasized that both bulls and bears have opportunities; the key is to patiently wait for the right entry point. Many fans reported that both sides are enjoying profitable trades these days. Therefore, the market will not behave like usual with sharp rises and falls; it is currently mostly consolidating in a sideways trend on a 4-hour cycle. During such times, we should avoid chasing highs and selling lows; we should take a little profit and run, and make good use of this downtime to refine our basic skills. When the market comes, we will be able to hold without panic.

Hot news|
1: The EU's Digital Asset Tax Transparency Act will come into effect on January 1, 2026
2. "BTCOG insider whale" continues to hold positions, total unrealized loss reaches $53.23 million
How do we view Bitcoin and Ethereum today? Today we won't talk about feelings, only about levels and direction. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum are entangled near key support and resistance levels, so market sentiment remains cautious, with weak volume and intense long-short battles.
Three sentences to summarize today's market on Christmas Eve
First: Bitcoin has not escaped the bearish fluctuation pattern. If support is broken, we need to look for a deeper correction.

Christmas week market, pulling the rug from under
| Hot news |
1: December 24th 21:30 US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 20th (10,000 people)
2. Atlanta Fed expects Q4 performance growth
Entering Christmas week, both gold and silver have reached historic highs, even the US stock market is smiling, only cryptocurrencies are lagging behind, hesitating, and can even be said to be quite bleak. Will Bitcoin be able to partake in this year's Christmas market? In yesterday's reference strategy, the main idea we provided was still to focus on short positions, with the upper level to watch being around 3070, which is the entry point for the first short position. We mentioned the significant decrease in the number of Bitcoin addresses on-chain, indicating that the short-term bearish sentiment has been fairly well released. Funds increasing their holdings in ETH have also seen some increase in the past couple of days, and both Bitcoin and Ethereum are expected to welcome a decent rebound this week, but due to the new highs in gold and the US stock market attracting a lot of attention and liquidity, the crypto market appears less impressive. However, I believe there will still be a Christmas market, although a big profit may not be on the table, getting a taste of the soup is still possible. Figure 1 shows the Christmas holiday, so don’t come asking Tommy why the market hasn’t opened at that time and make a fool of yourself.

Hot News |
1. On December 18th at 21:30, the U.S. November unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate will be announced.
2. On December 18th at 21:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending December 13th will be announced (in ten thousand people)
Review: Last night after the U.S. stock market opened, the three major indexes opened higher, but then quickly fell due to Oracle's market performance. The three major indexes continued to decline, and Bitcoin and Ethereum also experienced sharp short-term fluctuations. In the previous sharing, Tommy gave everyone a reference range of 2880-2830 for long positions, accurately hitting the target of 3030. Profiting 150 points.
The white pancake of Ethereum is also showing a low-level sideways oscillation. From the current transaction volume, the main force's order position is constantly low-balling near 2800. In the evening operation, we only need to pay attention to the release of CPI and wait for the main funds to confirm the bottom repair and choose to act decisively and quickly. In summary, the next two days are the news showdown days. If you slightly stand on the wrong side, you will be taken away by the main force.

Hot news |
1. On December 18 at 21:30, the U.S. will release the non-seasonally adjusted CPI annual rate for November.
2. On December 18 at 21:30, the U.S. will announce the number of initial unemployment claims for the week ending December 13 (in ten thousand).
Review: On Tuesday (December 16) local time, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released a report stating that the non-farm employment numbers for November slightly exceeded expectations. The Federal Reserve will hold its first interest rate meeting of 2026 in January next year. The market generally expects that the probability of the Federal Reserve continuing to cut interest rates is low. After the non-farm data was released, Bitcoin quickly fell, hitting a low around 86000, while Ethereum dipped to a low of 2880.
The market has once again confirmed that it must fall every Monday. Yesterday, Bitcoin also had a rebound at the support level I provided, but then quickly fell again when it reached the pressure level at a high point, further indicating that the overall market liquidity remains weak. In the previous article, Tommy emphasized that ahead of Thursday's CPI and Friday's announcement of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, the market's funds are more inclined to hedge in advance. The ups and downs you see in the market are also due to short-term speculative funds coming in and out quickly. Those who followed our trading rhythm this week made significant profits, and of course, those talented traders who did not keep up should not regret it. Today, Tommy will go over the dividing lines for Bitcoin and Ethereum once again.