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If there are fans who are hoarding coins, this wave of hoarding ETH in the second half of the year may be a disaster.

[Hotspot on September 18] - Fed cuts interest rates
The market's two-year interest rate hike has finally come to an end, and the road to interest rate cuts has begun in September.
At 2 a.m. on September 19, the Fed will announce the interest rate. The current interest rate cut forecast is: the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 68%, and the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 32%.
The market has different interpretations of different interest rate cuts. A 25 basis point cut is in line with expectations, but a 50 basis point cut will trigger concerns about an economic recession.
However, I personally believe that as long as the interest rate is cut, the hot money circulating in the market will increase in the overall environment, and the short-term sharp drop will provide opportunities for spot trading. No matter how much the interest rate is cut, it will not affect the arrival of the second half of the year.

When will Binance launch Merlin? I have made some money from Merlin recently.
Merl, around 0.3-0.31, you can continue to sell some spot, the band is rising

BTC first time 60000u eth3800u
BTC second time 60000u eth3100u
BTC third time 60000u eth2800u
BTC fourth time 60000u eth2400u

I can only say that holding eth is a numb

[Hotspot on September 16]
#BTC☀
Trump was attacked again. He was unlucky. In just two months, he was attacked twice. He was strong enough and safe.
BTC began to pull back. From the daily level, it was suppressed by the long-term moving average. This is not a good sign. Wait for the pullback before and after the interest rate cut. Then there will be another good opportunity to enter the market.
The current BTC may have a door.

The support below is 57500--55500. The first pressure of the rebound is at 59500, and you can short it with a light position.

ETH: I won’t say it anymore. Xiao V is unreliable. The strong support below is around 2100, and the value coin is not valuable. There is only one sin in the currency circle, and not pulling the market is the original sin.

Copyright: #sats , 2641-23 is a better spot position.

The ETH/BTC exchange rate has reached its lowest point again, at 0.04, which means that exactly 25 ETH is exchanged for one BTC.
In 2022, it was 12.5 ETH for one BTC. Two years have passed, and if you hold the currency standard, the return is far less than BTC.

If there is only one sin in the currency circle, then not pulling the market is the biggest sin.

TON has also rebounded from the bottom by nearly 20%+.

From the current data, in the second half of the year, TON is still the fastest growing public chain, without a doubt. The price-performance ratio of 4.6 TON is still very high, and 5.6 TON is actually not high either. The key point is how to judge the founder.

If a coin rises very quickly, it has been said in September that if it falls, it will be a golden pit.

Look, Bitcoin said it would rise in a matter of minutes, and it has reached the 60,000 position again.
Merl spot rose by 30%, and the first pressure position is around 0.3. I will make a wave at this position.

Ton also rebounded strongly, and positions were built in batches at 4.6. Ton has two more projects listed on Binance. This also shows that Binance is very optimistic about TG's traffic and wants to take this batch of traffic into its pocket.

#BNX is the leader of the blockchain game sector of Binance. In February, I continued to recommend it. To be honest, I only got one wave, and it was sold around 0.6-0.7. I basically missed some opportunities later.

The market value of BNX has fluctuated violently, with a large fluctuation range. Recently, there has been a positive news, and it has become the payment token of BN's meme platform, which means that it provides more usage scenarios.

But the intention is too obvious. The main force is to ship out goods by taking advantage of the good news. BNX is like this, rising in expectations and selling when expectations are realized.

BTC is still in the bullish trend, but this position is falling instead of falling. The picture is very clear, and the market is also waiting for further stimulus from the news. The interest rate cut data currently has a high probability of a 25 basis point cut.

If it meets expectations, there will not be too much fluctuation. As for the market performance after the interest rate cut, I think it will fall first and then rise. The market in the second half of the year will definitely come.
#BTC☀

Exposing Ouyi’s pitfalls

On August 27, a fan brother of mine operated Ouyi’s account normally and opened a long order of sol, 30 times long order, 155 open, originally wanting to operate short-term.

Then a fan brother’s friend transferred 20260U to his account.
Ouyi’s tricky operation was opened. After receiving the U, the account was directly controlled by risk control, unable to log in to the account, and unable to perform any operations. In the middle, he contacted Ouyi’s customer service, and the customer service only had three words: wait, wait, wait. In this way, the fan brother watched his account being liquidated.

The explanation given by Ouyi was: There was a problem with this 20260 U, but there was no clear reason. It was just said that there was a problem and asked the customer service, which was a mechanical answer: wait patiently.

It lasted for 10 days. Now the account has been unlocked and logged in, but the 20260 U is gone. . . . The key point is that it is gone. . . . The system showed a correction, but I can't find it. Can you believe it's 2024? In a so-called big exchange like Ouyi, u disappeared, and Ouyi's reply email was just "wait, wait, wait". .

When the fan brother told me, I was numb. First, it was controlled by risk without reason, and more than 20,000 u were liquidated, and then 20,260 u were transferred by Ouyi, and the system showed a correction of 20,260, which added up to hundreds of thousands. This kind of operation is only done by pig-killing schemes, and it actually happened in Ouyi.

This matter has been going on for more than 2 weeks, and there is still no news, don't say anything.

What I want to say is: if there is really a problem, Ouyi should handle it faster, instead of almost three weeks later, there is no substantive news, and the customer's U is directly seized, and there is no explanation. When asked, just wait patiently. Just ask who will be very annoyed if hundreds of thousands of dollars are seized.

The CPI data is basically certain, and the interest rate will be cut next week, officially starting the road to interest rate cuts.
As for the market, the interest rate cut may also cause a drop, and then a drop. Retail investors know that interest rate cuts are good news, so will the main force let the bulls get on board so easily?

TON rebounded strongly. Although I am optimistic about it, I dare not enter the market. It is indeed controlled by a powerful market maker. I am worried that the founder will be tricked again and get cut on the spot.

【Analysis on September 6】
Golden September and silver October, if you don’t plan well in September, you will basically miss the market in the second half of the year, pay attention to 2008.

The SAT of the inscription sector is really good, very strong, and it also becomes the burning fee of Uniswap, which has a realistic use scenario.
If there is an opportunity to enter the market at the bottom in the future, the aggressive spot point is: 2665-27 (decimal point is not typed)
Building a position before the rise is the real position.

BTC: The weekend volatile market, after the BTC plunge, the market of the moving average repair, the short-term pressure position is at 54700, the market may continue to fluctuate at a low level, the operation is mainly rebound short, long, unless the pin falls rapidly,

ETH: The trend is coordinated with Bitcoin, as mentioned in the analysis last night, the short-term pressure position is at 2300, there is no good market on the weekend, take a good rest.

#美国8月非农就业人数不及预期 #BTC走势分析 #内容挖矿btc

September 7 Market Analysis
Saturday was a day with average trading volume. The market also said yesterday: BTC will accelerate its decline in the short term and hit 52,500. Normally, when BTC falls by 5%, the cottage industry does not fall sharply. The reason is very simple. The previous decline is enough, and many cottage industries have returned to the starting point of the bull market.
The Matthew effect between cottage industries is getting stronger and stronger. The strong will always be strong, and the weak will only go to hell.
There is another reason. The cottage project parties are also waiting for the market in the second half of the year. At this point in time, if the market continues to fall, the chips may be distributed. At this time, the project parties, the serious project parties, do not distribute chips (except for the unserious ones, those who just want to sell the project).
Add and analyze the market:

BTC:

The general trend is still short-selling, and the moving average diverges downward. The first pressure position here is 55,500. The previous support position turns to the pressure position. The 4-hour level is a rebound market.
The 15-minute BTC market has gone from small to large, and there may be an upward spike in 15 minutes. Note: I analyzed the trend at a macro level and then looked at the trend at a micro level.

ETH:
The trend is similar to BTC. The first pressure point is 2300, but this point can be easily broken. The spot bottom position is 2000 US dollars. If this position is reached, it will be a very ideal position in the second half of the year.

At 20:30 on September 5, the Federal Reserve released the non-farm data for August:
The unemployment rate forecast for August was 4.2%, and the published data was also 4.2%, which was in line with expectations. The forecast value of non-farm data was 16, and the published value was 14.2, which was neutral news, further providing data support for the interest rate cut. The non-farm employment data in August rebounded from the weakness in July, but at the same time, the data for the first two months were revised down.

It can only be said that the Federal Reserve has played the interest rate cut expectations clearly. If it wants to cut interest rates, but does not want to cut interest rates too quickly, it needs data support. It starts with 25 basis points and cuts interest rates slowly. It does not want to cut interest rates quickly because of the economic recession.

At present, the market expects the scale of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut to be 25 basis points. The general consensus within the Federal Reserve is that it will cut interest rates multiple times; it still hopes to achieve a "soft landing". #BTC☀

At 8:30 p.m., the non-farm data for August will be released.
The interest rate will definitely be cut, but the question is how much? 25 basis points or 50 basis points.
If the unemployment rate rises, the probability of it rising to 50 basis points will increase.

The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending August 31 was 227,000, which was expected to be 230,000. The previous value was revised from 231,000 to 232,000. #BTC☀ is still in line with expectations