In the past few days, Bitcoin has fallen sharply, almost 10% has been lost, and those copycat and MEME coins have also fallen, and the entire crypto market has been hit to pieces. Why is this? You will understand after reading this!

First, the fighting broke out in the Middle East. The United States even asked its embassy staff to flee. Once there was chaos in the Middle East, the financial market was like the rewind button was pressed, and it fell rapidly. Others fired missiles, but our accounts were blown up! Is it outrageous? It was definitely painful. The rally brought about by the interest rate cut was suddenly brought back to its original state.

Nothing in this world can escape the 80/20 rule, which is the so-called “8 losses, 1 draw, 1 win”. The same is true for the financial markets, including the cryptocurrency world. 20% of people control 80% of the wealth. After all, only a few people can make money by speculating in cryptocurrencies, and most players are just leeks.

If you are in a state of loss but are unwilling to accept it, cannot find the reason, and are very confused, then instead of wasting time on yourself, why not find the reason first? First think through a few questions and find the rules of the currency circle.

Before I start this article, I would like to ask you a few questions for you to think about.

First ask yourself:
Am I one of the 20% or the 80%?

This month, as the Fed meeting approaches, market sentiment has quietly warmed up, like a spring breeze, sweeping away the previous haze. On September 17, BTC was like a wild horse that had broken free from its reins, advancing for two consecutive days from below $58,000, and unstoppably broke through the $61,000 mark. When the heavy news that the Fed announced a substantial interest rate cut landed, the cryptocurrency market seemed to have ushered in a long drought and all worries and uncertainties disappeared in an instant. BTC was even more full of firepower, performing an extremely rare feat of six consecutive positive daily lines, with an impressive weekly increase of 7.52%, and the price approaching $65,000, demonstrating a strong recovery momentum.

Gold is going crazy, breaking through all-time highs. Bitcoin rose by $4,000 in the past week, and Ethereum rose by nearly $300. The crypto industry experienced its best week since September. If it can keep up, the Bitcoin decline curse in September will be broken. Some analysts even said that this is just the beginning, and the next October or even the entire Q4 will usher in a bigger explosion.
What are the factors driving Bitcoin's recent rise?
1. The Fed cuts interest rates, kicking off the rise of Bitcoin

In the early morning of September 19th, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve started a radical interest rate cut, the first in four years, and a direct 50BP reduction, which exceeded many people's expectations. Bitcoin quickly soared and broke through the $62,000 mark.

This is the first time that US presidential candidate Kamala Harris has made positive comments about the cryptocurrency space.

According to Bloomberg, Kamala Harris, the current US Vice President who is running against Donald Trump in this November’s election, has for the first time revealed a positive view of the cryptocurrency industry and the technology being developed.
Specifically, at a campaign fundraising party just held on September 22, US time, Ms. Harris promised to "promote advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence and digital assets while protecting investors and ordinary consumers." The Vice President also promised to create a safe business environment for companies and formulate clear and consistent regulations.

On September 19, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve officially announced that it would cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 4.75%-5.00%, which was the first rate cut since March 2020. Under the influence of the rate cut news, the crypto market surged, and BTC broke through $62,500, outperforming U.S. stocks and spot gold.

What is most worth looking forward to is that experts from multiple institutions have stated that the 50 basis point interest rate cut in September is just the beginning, and it is possible that interest rates will continue to be cut throughout the year, and the cumulative interest rate cut may reach 76 basis points by the end of 2024.
The Fed will continue to cut interest rates in the coming months
This rate cut far exceeded the market's general forecast of 25 basis points, directly cutting interest rates by 50 basis points. Powell emphasized at the press conference that he did not think that the sharp rate cut indicated that the US economy was approaching a recession, nor that the job market was on the verge of collapse. The rate cut was more of a preventive action aimed at maintaining the "robust" status quo of the economy and the labor market.

Let’s analyze the logic behind the rise and fall of the cryptocurrency market this week.

Although the market crashed unexpectedly due to Trump's recent announcement, the market is likely to regard the interest rate cut at 2 a.m. on Thursday as a positive event. The price of the currency soared before the interest rate cut meeting, from 52,000 to more than 60,000. According to this logic, Bitcoin will continue to rise in the next few days, and then when the interest rate cut is announced in the early hours of Thursday morning, the good news will be exhausted, and a small correction will begin.
However, the above is normal, because there is a very big uncertainty this time, that is, whether the interest rate will be cut by 25 or 50 basis points. If the result is 0.25%, instead of the 0.5% that everyone expects, then the market will most likely usher in a wave of declines.

Is the bull market still here? Or is the bear market slowly approaching?
▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰
┇ Multi╮ Quiet period before FOMC meeting        ➠ Volatility ┇
┇ Short┆ Fed cuts interest rates by 25 basis points vs. 50 basis points ➠ Volatility ┇
┇ 建┆ Economic hard landing VS soft landing      ➠ Fluctuation ┇
┇ 仓╰ Trump VS Harris debate ➠ 流体 ┇
▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰
☘️September is the golden month, which has historically been the month of rebound after a sharp decline.

The public chain sector has always been a battleground since the birth of blockchain. As the foundation of blockchain development, a successful public chain will not only gather most of the funds and popularity in the market, but also influence the development trend of the market through its own ecological construction.
After the birth of the Ethereum chain, smart contracts began to prevail, and everyone could issue coins. After the Binance chain became popular, the Pink Platform could sell up to 9,000 projects a day, and the subsequent success of chains such as SOL opened up the Layer2 technology competition, with low fees and high speed becoming the new public chain standards.

The much-anticipated 2021 "Copycat Season" did not arrive as expected.
Here, I’ll explain why and offer some tips for optimizing your copycat strategy.
First, let’s define “copycat season”.
Definition: When alts outperform $BTC and the overall value surges.
This was a boom period for the copycat market, fueled by the frenzy of the market.
Think of it as a rising tide that lifts all boats.
That’s what a strong copycat season does — it boosts nearly every industry.
But the approval of this Bitcoin ETF has changed the landscape of the altcoin market.

According to coinglass data, in the past hour, the entire network had a liquidation of 93.64 million US dollars, long positions had a liquidation of 91.65 million US dollars, short positions had a liquidation of 1.99 million US dollars, BTC had a liquidation of 26.48 million US dollars, ETH had a liquidation of 16.97 million US dollars, and SOL had a liquidation of 4.81 million US dollars.

Nearly $100 million in liquidations hit investors in one hour
According to Coingecko, the price of Bitcoin plummeted to $55,555, with the sudden drop within an hour of Asian stock market going live. Earlier, the US stock market performed poorly, with technology giant Nvidia dragging the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 600 points. Across the Pacific, the Nikkei index opened 1,000 points lower than the previous trading day's close. Bitcoin rebounded slightly and is currently trading at $56,463, down nearly 3% on the day.

As Alex revealed in an interview in early August, the mainnet will be launched within 30 days. Later, the project released the latest progress of the long-awaited "mainnet journey" on X. At 5:30 am on August 31, the Aleo core developer meeting discussed the preparations before the mainnet launch:

Canary and testnet resets completed
September 3: Dress Rehearsal
September 4: “Genesis Event”, the official launch of the Aleo mainnet!
The mainnet beta will be launched on September 4th, and the mainnet and token will be launched on September 4th. The airdrop has been confirmed.

The core of this meeting is to make final preparations for the official launch of the Aleo mainnet. The "Genesis Event" on September 4th may mark the official launch and start of operation of the Aleo mainnet.

Recently, the blockchain field is about to usher in a major event - the official launch of the Aleo mainnet, which is expected to be launched in late August or early September. Industry expert Frank Fung once predicted that the "hackathon competition" will be launched in June-August, and the mainnet will be officially launched in September.
The main reasons are: first, optimizing the code to prepare for the launch; second, continuing to build momentum to achieve a win-win situation; third, finding the best launch time in the bull market. aleo estimates and analysis are for reference only.
The launch of Aleo’s mainnet, a privacy-focused blockchain platform, represents a significant achievement in technology implementation and adoption.

Last night, Nvidia's financial report, which attracted global attention, was released. Nvidia's sales and profits exceeded expectations. After the release, the stock price fell by 5%. Good news is bad news. The cryptocurrency market fell along with the US stock market.
Every time you see a needle in the quotations, there is an unlucky guy behind who is being sniped!
Good news does not necessarily mean an increase in price, and bad news does not necessarily mean a decrease in price. The cryptocurrency world is like a dark forest. Accidents and surprises can happen at any time, so there is no need to pay too much attention to short-term plunges. The long-term trend has not changed. Bitcoin has already entered the mainstream. Perhaps as humans transform from carbon-based to silicon-based in the future, Bitcoin will become the world's only store of value!

Many people think the bull run is over, but I don’t think it has started yet. Here are 4 reasons why.
1. More liquidity is coming

The index tracks new money entering the crypto market. It is far from the levels of previous cycles. The main reason why the cycle peak may not have arrived yet is liquidity. As global macro policies are relaxed, liquidity is expected to surge in 2025. Once liquidity increases, it will drive up cryptocurrency prices.

2. YT Metrics (YouTube Views)

Compared to the previous cycle, the YT indicator is about 5 times lower. In 2021, when Bitcoin was worth $70,000, the number of views per day was 4 million. Now, Bitcoin is worth $70,000, and the number of views per day is about 800,000. This shows that the interest of retail investors is still low and there is room for growth.

Data: In the past 24 hours, the entire network has been liquidated for $318 million

According to Coinglass data, the entire network had a liquidation of US$318 million in the past 24 hours, of which long positions were liquidated at US$287 million, short positions were liquidated at US$31.75 million, Ethereum was liquidated at US$102 million, and Bitcoin was liquidated at US$95.64 million.

Altcoins fell across the board, with 80% of the top 200 tokens by market cap in the red. Sun (SUN) continued its gains, up 9.6%, followed by Helium (HNT) up 8.5%, and Floki (FLOKI) up 7.1%. Echelon Prime (PRIME) led the decline, down 12.3%, Aragon (ANT) down 7.8%, and Ethena (ENA) down 6.5%.

Market Analysis
Market pullback, several reasons

1. The tens of thousands of BTC released by Mentougou continued to bring selling pressure, so the price rose to $65,000 and then fell down;

2. After rising for several days, profit-taking investors flee;

3. The expectation of interest rate cut has been partially released;

4. Big funds are worried about the release of data on Friday and a rebound in inflation.

Before the September interest rate meeting, three important data will be released:

Once PCE, once CPI, and once non-farm.

ETH Analysis:

Although Ethereum is somewhat weak relative to Bitcoin in the recent rebound, judging from the ETB/BTC trading pair, ETH/BTC fluctuated and fell after rebounding to the short-term supply line and conducted three tests.

Now that Mr. Bao’s dovish remarks are over, what everyone is most concerned about is: What should we do after the interest rate cut?

Market crash after rate cut?
Markets set new highs as rate cuts unfold?

Let us review the performance of the U.S. stock market after the three interest rate cut cycles began in the United States since the 21st century.

1. 2001 Internet Bubble

Duration: January 2001 - June 2003

This time, the fund rate was reduced from 6.5% to 1%, which lasted 29 months, with a total of 13 interest rate cuts and a cumulative rate cut of 550 basis points.

What is different about this interest rate cut is that this time it was caused by the bursting of the stock market bubble, which led to an economic recession, and the economic recession in turn triggered the interest rate cut.

PIP Labs, developer of the layer 1 intellectual property blockchain Story Protocol, has raised $80 million in a Series B funding round led by a16z crypto.
PIP Labs said Wednesday that other investors in the round include Polychain Capital, Stability AI senior vice president and board member Scott Trowbridge, K11 founder and billionaire Adrian Cheng, and digital art collector Cozomo de' Medici.
The company is now valued at $2.25 billion. In this article, I will explain why it has become the darling of capital! Why is a16 optimistic about Story Protocol?