Asen森-美股Alpha

The easiest place to get it wrong this round: it's not that $BTC breaking below 60k is scary, but rather that you think all risk assets are pulling out together.

The market is actually more selective.

Gold breaking below 4000 and oil prices retreating indicate that the Middle East risk premium is fading; however, BTC, ETH, and SOL are still weak, and the Fear & Greed index is at 12, which shows that it's not that no one is watching the news in crypto, but rather that no one is willing to take on leverage yet.

On the flip side, after Micron's earnings report, the storage chain and HBM sector can still be scooped up by capital. Cash hasn't disappeared; it's moved away from the "high leverage narrative" to seek assets that can discuss cash flow and AI bottlenecks.

So today, I don't see this as a full risk-off situation, nor do I see it as a return of the bull market.

It's more like this: money is still in the market, but it's starting to pick and choose who gets on board.

Is the market topping out?｜Yesterday, Hynix $SKHYNIX hit a peak, and today, the KOSPI 200 futures triggered a circuit breaker!

The Korean stock market is the global AI memory barometer; this is the second circuit breaker in June (the first was on June 8).
$SAMSUNG Samsung and $SKHYNIX Hynix took a nosedive.
Reasons for the trigger:
① Departure of Google executives raises concerns over AI competitiveness.
② Regulatory scrutiny on excessive leverage in semiconductor financial products.
③ Forced liquidations on leveraged products, triggering a cascading effect, intensifying downward pressure.

The KOSPI has surged over 93% in 2026, but only 373 out of 835 listed companies have risen, less than half. Samsung and SK Hynix account for about half of KOSPI's market cap, leading to extreme concentration in a single sector. When the chip market fluctuates, the Korean stock market experiences sharp volatility.

This likely indicates a significant cooling off in the AI sector/clearing out phase, entering a period of intense volatility, possibly squeezing out bubbles (removing leverage and speculation), but not necessarily an ultimate crash, as the fundamentals of AI remain intact. Even after the drop, the Korean stock market is still YTD +75% (a normal correction after such a surge).

However, today coincides with Micron's earnings report tomorrow (June 24).
The crash in the Korean market today may signal a shift in AI memory sentiment; if Micron's earnings report falls short of expectations, it could trigger a chain reaction of declines in U.S. storage stocks, significantly increasing the risk of an earnings report curse. #SpaceX股价盘前跌4.6% #韩股6月二次熔断

Looking at valuations rationally, it should dip. From a sentimental standpoint, the Musk effect should pump it up. #SpaceX股价盘前跌4.6%

US stock market in the optical communication sector is surging pre-market | $CRDO is AI Connectivity (AEC copper cables + optical modules transition) true bottleneck

👀 The fundamentals are among the best in this lane, outperforming $LITE /COHR/$AAOI in financial quality:
FY2026 revenue $1.34 billion (+205%)
Net profit +805%
Gross margin 68.6% (top-tier)
5 major clients (3 of them each account for 10%+ of revenue)
Acquisition of DustPhotonics strengthens silicon photonics, entering optical modules
FY2027 guidance revenue +80%.

Worth keeping an eye on long-term 👀 perfectly aligns with Mizuho's term "transition alpha," AEC (active cables) is indeed a beneficiary of the 800VDC transition.

Valuation is already high, control your position! #SK海力士市值超越比特币

From a staggering 10 billion in debt and on the brink of bankruptcy, to now controlling the lifeblood of AI computing power | $SKHYNIX Hynix's past and present

Hynix's predecessor was Hyundai Electronics, founded by the Hyundai Group in 1983.
In '99, the Korean government consolidated the storage industry, but $SAMSUNG Samsung firmly refused, while Hyundai and LG had to bow out.
Soon after, Hyundai Electronics merged with LG’s independent chip division, LG Semiconductors, simultaneously taking on massive debt.
In '01, during the industry's winter season, Hyundai directly spun off its semiconductor division, rebranding itself as Hynix, and relied on a debt syndicate to survive, nearly getting snagged by $MU Micron at a bargain price.
In '12, SK Group took over and rebranded to SK Hynix, going against the tide by heavily investing in HBM development.
Now holding over half of the global HBM production capacity, it has become a core supplier for Nvidia's AI chips, transforming from a chaebol's discarded asset to a leading player in AI storage needs. #SK Hynix's market cap surpasses Bitcoin

The easiest thing to misread here is: just because oil prices didn't keep blasting off, it doesn't mean risk assets are all systems go.

Today, I'm focusing on a mismatch: the US stock market's AI can absorb the risk budget, but the crypto space hasn't caught on yet.

On the Hormuz line, the probability market hasn't given the "full normalization" green light; Brent around $80 still has tail risks. On the other hand, VIX has dropped, yet NVDA/SMH keeps raking in cash, indicating that funds aren't fully risk-on but are picking the strongest AI assets.

Over here at $BTC , it's getting trickier: OI is recovering, funding is turning positive, but extreme fear is still hovering around 20, and spot and ETFs aren't synchronized in strength. Just because leverage is coming back doesn't mean the money has truly returned.

So this isn't about the "bull coming back"; it's more like money is taking a multiple-choice test: first buying into those AI cash flow narratives, then seeing if crypto can confirm with spot action.

Do you think the next move is $BTC catching up, or will AI stocks continue to gobble up the risk budget in crypto?

👀 Using US stock AI patterns | Can we trade back and forth in Hong Kong stocks and A-shares?

Today, some Hong Kong AI stocks are on the rise, with Zhizhu up over 30%, Changfei up over 20%, and MiniMax up over 12%.

Before making a move, one must understand the differences in the US-China AI supply chain.
The US and China are on 【two different paths】.
US: Closed-source big models + top-tier computing power + global capital.
China: Open-source (DeepSeek) + domestic substitution + policy-driven.

🎯
US AI leader = NVDA (chips) $NVDAB .
China's true global AI leader = optical modules (Zhongji Xuchuang/Xinyi Sheng), promising AI applications ahead.

Why?
Chinese chips are limited by manufacturing processes (SMIC falls behind TSMC $TSM ).
But for optical modules, China holds the largest global market share.
NVIDIA's AI clusters also utilize Chinese optical modules.

📌 If we use my three-dimensional stock picking approach to understand the bottleneck logic,
In the Chinese AI supply chain, optical modules are the global bottleneck that cannot be bypassed,
While chips are more about domestic substitution and internal demand logic.

So we can trade back and forth, but the selection of assets should differ.
#Japanese corporate pensions plan to allocate 1% to crypto assets

I'm taking a stance: $BTC this bounce, can't call it risk-on just yet, at most it's just low funding giving the market a breather.

The real choke point isn't the easing of Middle East news, but rather the price of money tightening again. DXY is stuck around 101, and the 10Y is creeping up to 4.5%, predicting the market is still betting on 0 rate cuts in 2026; in this environment, tech stocks can tough it out thanks to AI/chips, but crypto isn't going to fully rally just because someone says 'risk appetite is back.'

It's easy to prove me wrong: BTC needs to reclaim 66k first, ETF flows need to shift from outflows to inflows, and extreme fear has to leave the 20s range.

Until then, I'll keep an eye on $ETH $SOL 's bounce, but I won't prematurely label it as a trend. Money hasn't truly come back, so the market is just catching a quick breath.

Micron $MU 6.24 Earnings Preview｜$WDC , SanDisk $SNDK 's ups and downs rely on it

Recently, many have been comparing Micron to AVGO Broadcom after its 12.59% crash on June 4.
Let’s cut to the chase: the probability of a deep drop being replicated is low, but the risk of a 5%-10% short-term pullback is high.
Both companies share the trait of stock prices being overextended on expectations. Micron has skyrocketed over 270% this year with no safety cushion in valuation; investors are only focused on long-term gross margins and HBM capacity, and even if the earnings report meets expectations, a dull guidance could still trigger a sell-off.

The key difference is that Micron's HBM has a rigid capacity gap of 2-3 years, with all capacity sold out by 2026. During the storage cycle, funds will likely step in at lower prices, making it hard to see a Broadcom-style liquidation.

Key Point: WDC and SanDisk are completely tied to Micron. Micron dictates the storage price increase cycle and AI storage demand; if its guidance weakens, the entire flash memory chain will feel the pressure.

Three scenarios for the earnings report: exceed expectations and continue to rise; neutral results with slight pullback; or a significant downgrade in guidance leading to a deep drop. It’s not advisable to go heavy on bets before the earnings report. #比特币链上活跃度近历史新高

The most easily misread aspect of this rebound: if oil doesn't keep climbing and the VIX isn't in panic mode, it doesn't mean risk assets are getting a free pass again.

What I'm more concerned about today isn’t the cooling news, but that the price of money hasn't dropped yet. After Warsh, the market has already shoved the expectation of 'no rate cuts this year, and even a more hawkish stance can't be ruled out' back into Treasuries, with the 10Y still hovering around 4.45%.

So, while the Nasdaq can rebound, $BTC can still catch a breath; but as long as $ETH /$SOL aren't following suit, the fear index remains in extreme territory, and funding rates are just slightly positive, this isn't a full risk-on scenario.

The real turning point is simple: Treasuries need to make way for liquidity to spread; if Treasuries don't budge, this rebound is mostly just a change in breathing position for risk assets.

The most twisted part of this chart: VIX has dropped, QQQ/NVDA is on the rise, but $BTC hasn’t joined the celebration.

I wouldn't call this a full-on risk-on environment; it feels more like the funds are voting: first buying the US stocks that can clearly articulate cash flow and AI bottlenecks, while temporarily avoiding ETFs that are still seeing outflows in high beta chains.

Three signals are already enough: QQQ is strong, VIX is down; BTC/ETH ETFs are still experiencing net outflows in a single day; prices are dropping but funding remains positive, indicating that the bulls haven't truly capitulated.

So here in crypto, it’s not that there are no opportunities, it’s just that the tickets to enter haven’t been handed out yet. The US stocks have already boarded the train, while the crypto space is still waiting for the risk controls to be lifted.

What are the hot yet not overheated US stock AI sectors?
The answer circles back to the two core players—$NVDA and $TSM .
They represent the only combo in the current semiconductor scene with the toughest bottlenecks + healthiest PEG + sustained hype.

Even if market breadth deteriorates, the semiconductor gains are driven by fewer stocks, and as time goes on, the focus needs to tighten on the hardest bottleneck (NVDA/TSM). Don't risk getting left behind with the small caps. #美联储利率决议后美股下跌

4. Recent US Stock Events to Watch ⏳
a. Next week, keep an eye on Micron Technology's MU earnings report; it's a bit of a curse. Remember earlier this month when AVGO posted better-than-expected earnings but still led to a major pullback in the entire semiconductor sector.
b. The IPOs of these two giants are a leading signal, and the smoothness of the process will trigger a chain reaction in the AI stock market. The hundreds of billions they raise will translate into procurement for computing power/chips/electricity, benefiting the bottleneck sectors like NVDA/MU/power, etc.
Particularly watch for OpenAI's official IPO date, which is yet to be confirmed; the timeline might shift as they need to complete a round of pre-IPO financing at around $83 billion valuation and transition from a non-profit to a for-profit public benefit corporation.

5. De-risking and Shorting Strategies 🛠
While it's not the time to fully exit, it's wise to gradually scale down positions and increase cash reserves in preparation for a potential top. You can start to defend by monitoring ETF fund inflows in the sector; when small stocks drop and leaders hold up, begin scaling back; if leaders stagnate, start significant reductions; and when small stocks plunge, initiate short positions. If you choose to short semiconductors, consider using inverse ETFs like SOXL, which is a 3x leverage tool (only for right-side trades after confirming a trend reversal, use small positions + strict stop-losses, and beginners should avoid). #美联储四度维持利率不变

After Wash's hawkish remarks, can the AI sector in the US stocks still skyrocket without thinking? Here’s a trading framework I’ve been using recently on how to scoop big gains from the scraps🥩:

1. Trading Strategy ☝️
Last night on the live stream, I mentioned that the AI narrative in the US stocks has entered the latter half of the main uptrend, which isn’t the time to go all in. The final stretch is the steepest, making it more suitable to think like a short seller while going long; i.e., short during a pump and long during a pullback.

2. Market Timeline ⏰
The IPO expectations for OpenAI and Anthropic could mark the peak of this phase. Coupled with the midterm elections, there’s a tendency to prop up the stock market, and the market trends are particularly clear. Further out, we can see industry cycles, like the semiconductor supply-demand shift expected around 2027-2028.

3. Stock Selection 📡
a. Focus on stocks that haven’t dropped since last night, despite the index decline; these are undoubtedly strong consensus stocks in the market, making them top picks for rebounds and upward momentum. Conversely, those that have dropped significantly indicate market disagreements and are prime candidates for shorting during pumps.
b. Look for correlated strong stocks, like Western Digital (WDC), which recently rose over 80% due to the narrative link with SanDisk (SNDK) and hit an all-time high.
c. Pay attention to ETFs in the AI supply chain that are on the rise (indicating capital inflow), and from there, pick quality individual stocks, using ETF signals to guide trading actions.
d. As the AI supply chain rotates, the latter part of the main uptrend will enter the relatively lagging nutrient layer, namely power/thermal management (after a previous surge with VRT, ETN, VST, CEG, etc., now in a pullback).
Next stop: New architecture (800VDC/CPO, some already overstretched, with stocks like CRDO/AVGO in pullback), AI applications/software layer (phase 4, waiting for profit realization), and traditional industries benefiting from AI (power grid/industrial automation, still undervalued). #特朗普宣布美国入股英特尔10%股权

I’m making a call today: this isn’t a risk-on vibe after oil prices ease up; it’s the interest rates putting risk assets back in their place.

If I’m wrong, the first to slap me in the face won’t be some news headline but when the 10Y drops back below 4.4%, and after $BTC funding cools off, prices stop making new lows.

The issue now is that the Fed hasn't cooled things down; instead, they’ve put the 'possible rate hike this year' card back on the table; the dollar is back over 100, with the 10Y hovering around 4.46%. US stocks, Hong Kong tech, and crypto are all going to get hit by the discount rate first.

Middle East easing might give oil prices some breathing room, but it can only hit the brakes; it can't push the market's gas pedal. For $BTC to really stabilize, it’s not just about a positive headline; it’s about whether the bulls' leverage has surrendered.

#沃什首次FOMC维持利率
Wosh's debut leans hawkish, presenting a multi-layered balanced strategy! The market timeline is now clear!

First, by signaling a hawkish stance and combining it with dot plot info, they’re keeping the policy static but tightening the screws on rate cut sentiment.

Then, by clarifying the Fed's operational mechanisms and reshaping the decision-making framework, they’re establishing working groups while maintaining central bank independence and softening outside political pressure questions.

On a deeper level, this is also providing cover for Trump's midterm elections, while using institutional reforms to extend the policy observation window.

The entire strategy is to defend the inflation floor in the short term, while maintaining policy adjustment flexibility in the mid to long term, talking professional rules on the surface but leaving enough policy wiggle room underneath, a classic bullish compromise play.

These types of charts are the easiest to misread: when oil prices drop, people think the bull market has hit the gas pedal full throttle.

I prefer to see it as "lifting the brakes" rather than "flooring the gas".

WTI/Brent has dropped nearly 27%-30% over the month, and the 10Y and DXY haven’t pushed higher, so risk assets will naturally catch their breath; however, the semiconductor sector pulled back collectively yesterday, and $BTC is still just hovering around 66k testing the waters, with fear and greed still stuck in extreme fear territory.

So today, I won't view the bounce in $BTC or the fluctuations in AI stocks as a full-on risk-on scenario.

What really matters is not who pumps first, but whether the FOMC will allow the interest rate anchor to be released afterward. Oil prices are just opening the door; whether the funds will flow in depends on the face of U.S. Treasuries and semiconductors.

With the brakes lifted, you can drive, but don’t take that as an invitation to floor it.

Don't just focus on the $BTC rebound by a few points.

What's really interesting today is that money is first flowing into US tech stocks, while the crypto space is still standing at the entrance, waiting to see.

With oil price risk premiums easing and the VIX dropping, the Nasdaq and AI/tech stocks are repairing first, indicating that risk appetite is returning; however, BTC is still stuck at the 67.5k/70k hurdles, and funding isn’t hot, with fear and greed still in the extreme fear zone.

This isn’t a full-on risk-on scenario; it feels more like funds are testing the waters where liquidity is best and narratives are strongest.

So today, I'm not rushing to call the crypto pullback a trend reversal. It's like the US stock market has already got its ticket, while the crypto space is still in line waiting for ticket validation.