Why are they masters? That is the result of thousands of trials and tribulations. How much time, energy and cost have you spent on learning how to trade? If you have spent nothing or very little, then don't ask why others can get results but you can't. I practiced trading for more than eight hours a day. It took two hours a day to find targets. I researched four projects at the fastest every day, and sometimes I could only finish one. The whole team researched all the currencies of Binance and OK very clearly, which took more than half a year. Most people would be numb after just one look at the Google spreadsheet. With so much information, we think the basic information is clear at a glance. Next, we will study the K-line pattern, market maker methods, project structure and operation. This is also the reason why currencies are not shared often. The reason is simple. Olympic gold medalists only have a few minutes or one chance to go on stage, but they have studied and practiced hard for more than ten years! When you see people sharing coins, your cognition is not at the same frequency and level as theirs, and you can't even tell whether the person sharing is an expert or not. So many people often suffer a lot in this regard. They call it paying a lot of tuition fees, but in fact, they have wasted their hard-earned money. They wanted to change their fate in the coin circle, but ended up becoming fuel for others.

Learning is important, and practice is more important. There is a gap in the middle that needs to be crossed. It is very difficult to integrate knowledge and practice.

My confidence comes from the fact that the entire team has been deeply involved in the coin circle for many years and has experienced the trials and tribulations of the coin circle, and the confidence brought by continuous learning and practice. That's why I say that each coin has its own temper, because in my heart they are not just a string of letters but people with life and feelings.

Investing is about risk management; those who manage risk well can survive long-term. Analyzing the market has only three directions: up, down, and sideways. We need to estimate which probability is greater; if the risk is large, the position should be small, and if the risk is small, the position can be large. Based on predictions, we should control our positions wisely. For example, Bitcoin at 73777 is at a high point, and the risk is obviously large; going all-in is unlikely to make money. Bitcoin at 20000 is clearly at a low point, and the risk is relatively small, so we can go in with a large position!

The perception of risk varies for each person. Newbies have no risk awareness, so they tend to go all-in. However, after spending a long time in the crypto space and seeing more, the awareness of risk becomes stronger. I am willing to reduce my position around 71000 but am not willing to increase my position at 72000. This is very clear; even if technical analysis suggests it could reach 84000, it could also drop to 60000 or 50000, with a significantly higher probability of falling. Therefore, entering the market carries high risk, and strategies like not entering or reducing positions should be adopted.

Why I do not recommend altcoins: many altcoins were already low when Bitcoin was at 68000. If Bitcoin continues to pull back, they could drop to the price levels when Bitcoin was at 15400, and such coins are basically doomed.

The strong coins mentioned in the live broadcast, $ARKM $SUI $OM , are worth paying attention to. Bitcoin has hit a point to buy in; for now, observe and do not enter.

The weekend big coin is declining, indicating that there is neither buying volume nor selling volume; selling exceeds buying, leading to a decline. The defense level of 68888 has broken, and if 66500-65250 breaks next, the entire trend may change. However, it is possible that the big coin could suddenly surge before the election, but I think the likelihood is low.
The ETF bought at high points three times: 73777 with nearly 1 billion inflow, around 72000 with nearly 1 billion inflow, and around 73600 with nearly 1 billion inflow. Each time there is high inflow, a decline follows; ETF inflow decreases and begins to flow out, causing the price to drop. This kind of trend is a normal back-and-forth fluctuation. Last Thursday, the ETF inflow was 432 big coins, and on Friday, there was a net outflow. The support level must not break, and we will continue to monitor on Monday.

The trend of this large pancake is like playing with a turf dog, pulling it from 69000 to 71500, then suddenly smashing it back down. It wants to tell us that it's hard to pull it up, but easy to drop it back down. So! Forget it, I can't keep writing, just watch the show. With such a pull and smash, the imitation has collapsed again, and the imitation is very helpless and innocent!

The unemployment rate is 4.1, the same as the previous value, and the non-farm payrolls is 1.2, the lowest in recent years. The Federal Reserve's Beige Report emphasizes that the US economy, especially the manufacturing environment, is still sluggish, basically pointing to the fact that the interest rate will be cut by 25 basis points in November.

$TIA release has ended, you can slowly enter the market. The only risk to prevent is that the big cake's pullback lowers its price.

$PYR also shows signs of starting like $TROY . Now that it has risen, do not enter; observe first, and wait for a proper pullback before entering. Take profits and leave. There is also a possibility of being trapped, so pay attention to risk management.

The U.S. election is essentially a competition among capital. No matter who comes to power, they will only do things that benefit the U.S., just through different means. I remember back when Hillary and Trump were running, everyone thought Hillary had a higher chance, but in the end, Trump won.

Behind presidential elections are interests being pushed out, and this time it is very obvious. Exchanges in the cryptocurrency space and VCs have provided benefits to candidates. With the approval of the Bitcoin ETF, the world's largest capital is entering; behind them are all interests. Regardless of who is elected, they must repay their benefactors, so no matter who wins, it will be beneficial for the cryptocurrency space in the long term. The variables in between are just reasons for temporary price surges and dumps! Once big capital enters the cryptocurrency space, they will certainly push U.S. policies to develop in their favor.

Trump clearly stated on his Twitter on July 13, 2019, that he does not like cryptocurrencies, and he also criticized Facebook's Libra stablecoin project. Now he is making statements about betting on Bitcoin and even starting a family fund project to raise funds (the project is a public sale, and upon seeing it, I immediately gave up; it’s just a money-grabbing venture).

Let’s just leave it at that; you can ponder it yourself.

Tomorrow, the U.S. non-farm payroll data looks bearish from now, September 14.2, October 25.4, and the value to be announced tomorrow in November is predicted to be below 20, which is bearish, and it is very likely to continue to drop tomorrow.

If the unemployment data remains at 4.1, that's fine, but if it goes above 4.1, it would also be bearish. This bearish sentiment could directly affect the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut probability in November, making it much less likely. If something unexpected happens and they don't cut, it would be a significant bearish signal!

Today, the Nasdaq plummeted, hoping the Nikkei index can hold strong tomorrow, although there is no inevitable relationship.

The probability of a strong rebound after a drop is not high; these are fundamental data rather than news.

During the live broadcast, @肥猫 and I thought there would definitely be a pullback, which should happen at the end of November or in December, but I didn't expect it to come early. If the pullback during this period is not significant, stabilizing between 68000-69500, there is a high probability of a rally to 74000 and 84000. However, if the pullback is deep, like the last time at 49000, it could actually be a good thing, and this time the rebound will be stronger, but it will take longer.

These two weeks are certainly not peaceful; it's better to watch more and act less.

Today, the morning was pretty good as there was no interest rate hike, maintaining the rate at 0.25. I hope Bitcoin can stabilize around 72000 and push towards 74000.

Data will be released at 9:30 PM, but I ended up dozing off and missed it. When I woke up, half an hour had passed, and it had already started to drop, missing the Nasdaq opening.

After reviewing, no interest rate hike is a good thing. The number of weekly unemployment claims is 21.6, which is positive. The PCE annual index is 2.7, unchanged from before, with not much impact, just slightly higher than expected, and the revision from 2.6 to 2.7 isn’t good. The increase in PCE from 0.2 to 0.3 in September may be the reason for the upward revision, which will affect the CPI data and the Federal Reserve's decision. This clearly indicates that inflation is likely to rebound. The Federal Reserve definitely cannot lower by 50, only by 25, and there’s also a possibility of not lowering at all. If they lower by 25, it would naturally be a good thing, but the impact would be much smaller than a 50-point cut. A 50-point cut is unexpected, while a 25-point cut is anticipated. The CPI data is likely to not drop significantly.

The Nasdaq has dropped 2% so far, which is a substantial decline, indicating that the mainstream market in the U.S. also has a bearish sentiment.

I watched for an hour as $ETH dropped continuously, and from the daily level to the 15-minute level, I really couldn't find its support level, it just kept falling.

Let’s wait for the closing, the Bitcoin position at 70900 is very critical.

Binance Square has been updated, updated to version 2.9 or above, live chat is now available, so if there are issues, you don't have to wait for the mic.

The cryptocurrency $SEI $PENDLE that we shared earlier is gradually being sold off. The higher it rises, the more we sell. If any friends have bought in, it's advisable to gradually recover the principal. If Bitcoin can reach 79000-84000, consider taking profits. If there is a direct pullback, profits can also be taken, and then re-enter after the drop.

Previously, during a live stream, a currency friend asked about the project $MKR , when it would be a good time to enter. I just took a look, and the project has changed its name to SKY. In the past few days, institutions have almost finished offloading their assets, so you can start to enter slowly. At the same time, be aware of the potential dip caused by Bitcoin's pullback; don't blindly go all in!

The live stream shares that this wave of growth was accurately predicted; the team had forecasted it earlier and benefited from it, predicting from around 59,000 to 71,000-72,000, and subsequently to 83,000-84,000, which is a long-term cycle. The 71,000-72,000 mark has basically been reached, and whether it can hit 83,000-84,000 will depend on future results. The conclusion has been mentioned in previous posts.

Why not share charts, only share opinions and points?
First, you need to have basic technical knowledge, otherwise, you can only remember the conclusions.
Moreover, you need to understand the principles behind the charts, as deriving conclusions has prerequisites and logical content. If there are internal changes, the conclusions may also change.
Finally, based on the results of the derivation, the entire team and students formulate strategies and position management.

It looks quite simple, but it’s not that easy in execution. You need to learn and possess basic knowledge, be able to understand the drawings, know the principles and logic behind predictions, and at the same time, make good strategies and position management based on your actual situation. In between, risk control must also be done, which means how to respond and execute if such predictions go wrong. This cannot be done without experiencing market friction and professional training.

If I post that many crypto friends made a fortune by going all in, it might start off well, but later, when I post again, those who made money previously might think, 'Last time was so accurate, let's go all in and leverage this time.' As a result, if our analysis fails, you could lose everything. We don’t have significant issues because we have strategies and risk control in place and have prepared contingency plans.

Trading is a game of controlling risks and increasing the reward-to-risk ratio.

The previous pattern was that Bitcoin rose, leading to capital inflow into Ethereum, then Ethereum rose, and after that, the funds flowed into Ethereum-related assets, followed by sector rotation, and so on in a cycle of ascending. This time, the ETF inflows are into Bitcoin, Bitcoin is surging, and the incoming funds will not flow into ETH, therefore subsequent rotations will not occur. Most altcoins cannot rise as much as Bitcoin, and when they fall, they fall harder than Bitcoin. The wide fluctuations of Bitcoin have eliminated many altcoins, and the surges do not involve any capital flow into altcoins.

Today, the livestream ended with Bitcoin reaching 73620.12, but it didn't break 73777. If it stabilizes at 74000 without a pullback, it will be a vast ocean of stars. Yesterday at six o'clock, I watched BTC break through 70000. Will it surge like yesterday at six o'clock again?
Bitcoin has surged over 6000 in two days, nearly 10%. A rapid rise will inevitably lead to a sharp decline. If it can't stabilize around the defensive area of 70900, it will pull back further.

I personally think the following are relatively certain:
1. BTC will become a reservoir for the United States. In fact, BTC emerged quite early, possibly as a preemptive layout by the U.S. to prepare for current entry and to channel more dollars into BTC later.
2. BTC could reach 150,000 USD, comparable to the U.S. stock market. If compared to gold, it could reach 600,000 USD.
3. BTC can be viewed as a stock in the U.S. stock market, and the U.S. will use all financial means to reap profits.
4. The cryptocurrency market will be like the U.S. stock market, where only a few leading players account for a large proportion of the market value.

Tomorrow night at 8 PM, the tentative topics for the Binance live stream are as follows:
1. Community member coin analysis (APE TIA GTC)
2. Market analysis and future trend predictions
3. Analysis of the international financial situation
4. Analysis of the international political situation
5. Explanation of new trends
6. Community interaction

The first five topics will not have open microphones, but in the sixth topic, community members can join the microphone.

There are over 10 coins collected, and we have selected 3 for analysis. For those not selected, we will filter and answer them in the next session. Also, every Saturday night at 8 PM, Fat Cat's live stream is open for participation and questions, and we will help answer questions from community members. During the interactive session, please prepare your questions in advance, keeping them concise so that more community members can have their questions answered.

Our host is still Brother Bo with the ID @BTB投研 , and we have invited Fat Cat with the ID @肥猫 as a guest for contracts. You can consult him about contract content, while Brother Bo and I will handle spot trading, and spot trading questions can be discussed with us.

A few days ago, the AI sector surged, then the fan tokens surged, recently on-chain #goat saw a 1000x increase in seven days, #ai16z also saw over a thousand times, $SOL on-chain meme coins are making money, driving up Sol, funds returned from exchanges to the chain to retain users, Binance's token has started surging again, mainly represented by low market cap with $TROY , market cap below 20 million, basically fully circulated. These coins can only be ambushed, not knowing who will pull them up; as soon as big funds enter, follow immediately.

The coins are as follows: oax vite juv vib five amb

Good news came out today. BlackRock's shareholder meeting will vote today, on Monday, to decide whether to explore buying Bitcoin. If approved, this would be a significant positive for Bitcoin, likely boosting the market and greatly reducing the chances of a downturn, as BlackRock provides liquidity.

What we see with BlackRock's ETF inflows is not BlackRock buying; it's American retail investors buying BlackRock's ETF, with BlackRock using retail funds to buy BTC, representing a flow of retail capital. The real news would be if BlackRock itself starts purchasing Bitcoin, using its own funds—that's what we call institutional involvement!!!

Several points to note:
1. The decision from tonight's vote, if approved, could lead to a FOMO rally with resistance levels likely to break through 68,500-69,500, possibly pushing towards 70,000 or even previous highs, and the sentiment might spread throughout the week. This is very positive news.

2. If approved, we need to pay attention to when they start entering the market. If it's in half a year, a year later, or if they're waiting for a specific low point, this FOMO rise could lead to a pump-and-dump scenario! If they enter the market soon, then BlackRock's entry price would be above 68,000, increasing the certainty of BTC rising by 50-100%. Altcoins might not necessarily benefit; such a decision could drain liquidity from altcoins, with major funds flowing into Bitcoin.

3. Institutional entry is a long-term investment; they won't just buy during a bull market and then sell off. Even if the market turns bearish, they'll continue to buy. So if BlackRock enters around 68,000, even if the price drops to 40,000, 30,000, or 20,000 later, they will gradually enter the market, with holding periods of 5-20 years, or even longer.

4. Both BlackRock and MicroStrategy have their own stocks. Recently, MicroStrategy's stock inflows were 5.9 billion in a day (data from international friends), which is even more than Bitcoin's inflow. So they are very likely positioning themselves in BTC to boost their stock prices, especially since the returns from BTC are far less than those from stocks.

Rationally view all of this, and I advise all coin friends to take profits first when prices rise, to protect the principal.