Let's talk about why there is a possibility of a short-term decline before and after the interest rate cut. The cryptocurrency market is completely likely to be dragged down by the US dollar, US stocks and US bonds. At 2 a.m. on September 19, if the interest rate cut is confirmed, it means that the arbitrage point is low, and the US dollar will also depreciate. Therefore, if you make money on the US dollar, you will also lose the exchange rate. Why doesn't capital run away? A 25% interest rate cut may be okay, giving capital time to slowly transfer. Most capital has also prepared for the interest rate cut, but the funds must have a place to go if they want to change their layout, and the relevant industrial chain must be established. Otherwise, even if the interest rate is cut, the funds will not know where to go. If the interest rate is cut by 50%, it will force capital to flee the United States, because the US dollar may depreciate too quickly, and US dollar assets need to be quickly abandoned, which may cause a series of financial stampedes that affect the cryptocurrency market.
A shares have been falling, and the economy has not been able to open up. In fact, A shares are controlled by state-owned enterprises, so the reason for its decline is that state-owned enterprises have taken funds to the United States to make profits, whether it is arbitrage, buying treasury bonds, or buying gold and US stocks. In short, technically they are making money. There are 6 trillion US dollars in foreign exchange, of which 3 trillion foreign exchange is not converted into foreign exchange. It is conceivable how much power is involved.
However, in the long run, everyone has cut interest rates, all at low interest rates, and there are no stable hedging products in the market, so capital will turn to relatively risky investments and will begin to be invested in the real industry. #降息 #降息前后走势 #比特币挖矿难度创历史新高 #降息影响 $BTC $ETH $BNB

Some people say that the Fed will not cut interest rates on September 19, while others say that it will even raise interest rates. I personally do not agree with this view. In terms of time, it is too late to cut or raise interest rates because it is not in the interests of those in power.
The Fed has three interest rate meetings left this year, on September 19, November 8, and December 19, respectively. The results of the US election will be announced on November 5. Before the election, the Democratic Party has only one chance to cut interest rates to win votes, end the global economic winter during their term, stabilize the global economic order, stabilize the US financial market, and achieve what they call a soft landing for the US economy. Otherwise, there will be financial chaos in the United States before the election, which is extremely unfavorable to the election of those in power. The Democratic Party will not do this.
Now let's take a look at the major capitals that are now buying government bonds and pursuing cash flow. The issuance of tens of billions of USDT has not been touched, which shows that the September 19 interest rate meeting is extremely important. It depends on how much the interest rate will be cut. If the interest rate is cut by 25bp, then the Americans will lose a lot and the interest rate will be raised in vain, because the market may not experience a particularly large decline, and then let many other countries' funds slowly flow out, everyone will be well fed, and the Americans will lose a lot of money. If the interest rate is unexpectedly cut by 50bp and short the US dollar, US stocks and US bonds, then many foreign funds will not have time to withdraw and become trapped funds. They may still lose money if they sell, making financial investors miserable and desperate. Then it will be an alternative harvest for the Americans. At this time, if the people in power introduce a series of effective policies to stabilize the economy, and it seems that the economy is about to prosper, then the election support rate for the people in power will undoubtedly be stable. What do you think the politicians will choose? Leave a message to discuss. #美降息25个基点预期升温 #美国经济软着陆？ #美国大选如何影响加密产业？ $BTC $BNB $ETH

There will be a lot of data next week. There will be some economic data released from Tuesday to Friday. Among them, the non-agricultural data on Friday is the most important. It can determine the decision and extent of the interest rate cut in September. The data released in August basically had an impact on the trend of the currency circle. Then, we can simulate the market trend of September for several important data in September.
The first type: On Friday, the 6th, the non-agricultural data was seriously lower than expected, the market panicked and sold US dollar assets, the US stock market was circuit-breaker, the trading day ended, and foreign capital had no time to withdraw, basically locking in low prices. On Monday, the market opened, either selling meat or taking over. On the 10th, the candidates debated, and some good news will be released. Then on Wednesday, the 11th, the CPI data will be released, and there should be a small positive news, but it will still fluctuate at a low level. The Mid-Autumn Festival holiday here will be from the 15th to the 17th, and the interest rate will be cut by 50 on the 19th to save the market. Funds will enter the market, the market will start to pick up, and the currency circle will rise sharply. Biden gave this credit to Harris, and Harris's chances of winning the election will increase.
The second type: The non-agricultural data on the 6th basically meets expectations, the market is still selling, and the market will still fall at the opening of next week. The candidate debate on the 10th is positive, and the CPI on the 11th is in line with expectations. The market stops falling and smoothly transitions to the interest rate cut date on the 19th, with a rate cut of 25%. US stock funds begin to flow into other markets, and the currency circle bottoms out and starts to rise.

What do you think? How will the market go? #美联储降息悬念 #九月行情预测 #山寨季何时到来？ $BTC $ETH

In August, FOMO lasted for a weekend. The good news could not pull the market, and the bad news was released as soon as it was released. The US interest rate cut will not necessarily bring about an increase in the short term, not to mention that it is an opportunity before the election. The purpose is obviously to drive employment data and win votes.

In September, non-agricultural data will be released on the 6th, CPI will be released on the 11th, and the interest rate will be cut on the 19th. Japan should not raise interest rates on the 20th, so there should be an increase from the 20th to the 21st, but I don’t know what will happen on Monday, the 23rd. In September, we will first see what the non-agricultural data is like, which will determine whether it will cut interest rates by 25 or 50. If it is serious, the interest rate will be cut by 50 on the 19th, and it is estimated that there will be a big drop. ETH may really go to 1800-1600. International arbitrage funds will start to sell US dollar assets, which will definitely have an impact on the currency circle. The small positive news of CPI on the 11th is not very effective. Whether the interest rate cut on the 19th is 25 or 50, it feels like both will fall, and if it is 50, it will fall more.

In fact, from the recent decline of the US dollar and the rise of the RMB, we can see that a lot of funds have been withdrawn, but it seems that these funds have only been used to buy gold, and they are not very interested in the cryptocurrency circle. The excess US dollars will be invested in industry. In an unstable environment, if you want to buy, you should buy Bitcoin first. Of course, if the interest rate is cut this time, the market should start to rise slowly, but after the election, it should be the time when the bull market starts, the interest rate reaches about 2, and the CPI stabilizes at about 3, and the interest rate may stop cutting. Compared with the last round of zero interest rates, I don’t know how fierce this round will be, but RWA should be what capital and the government will plan. #降息后行情 #加密何时止跌 #牛市前兆 $BTC $ETH

The interest rate cut is coming up on September 19th, but the US has not received any benefits. So how will the US treat the external funds stranded in the US? Did the arbitrage funds already pay back on August 5th? Can anyone give me an answer? #美联储何时降息？ #降息前后

After the release of CPI data, there is a high probability that the market will rise. Even this August will be a FOMO month. The altcoins will also pick up. This month, many altcoins will exceed the rebound strength of Bitcoin and Ethereum. Sui may reach $1.5 this month. The altcoins of ETH have waited too long. The rotation market has not been seen for the time being. Many strong coins will pull the market. Now, I don’t know if meme coins can charge first like last time, but the altcoins should indeed pull up. $BTC $SUI $ETH

It seems that the night session of the U.S. stock market will not open. It should be waiting to see the market reaction. Then relevant personnel will come out to talk about the good news. There may be an emergency interest rate cut, and then expand the balance sheet and inject more capital. The best thing, of course, is to find an alternative investment target for U.S. stock investors, announce that Bitcoin is a national strategic reserve asset, and then issue treasury bonds to match Bitcoin. After all, the current digital currency bankrupt companies repaying debts can not only make investors make money, but even have some left over. The issued treasury bonds will also appreciate with the rise of Bitcoin. Just keep unlocking and issuing more. Bitcoin in hand means the value of treasury bonds in hand. Step by step, the U.S. debt bubble will be transferred to Bitcoin. The world will still follow up, and the status of the U.S. dollar can still be stabilized. Otherwise, I really don’t see how to stop the collapse. #加密市场急跌 #美联储紧急开会 $BTC $ETH

It's dead, the long positions are almost cleared, but there will be another wave before the Americans speak tonight. I don't want to say this depressing thing, but the currency circle is like this. We predicted before that it would rise after a wave of despair, but this is too desperate. How can this be a bull market? It's even more down than the bear market. It's really killing people.#TheAmericans are going to be good people tonight. #星期一行情

Guess if the US will pass the bill to make Bitcoin a strategic reserve next week, and then Buffett's company, with nearly 300 billion US dollars in cash, is still looking for a suitable investment target. Will there be any action? If the US passes the strategic reserve status of Bitcoin next week, Buffett will say that Bitcoin is awesome and a great invention, then cash flow will come, and everyone will benefit. Hopefully, otherwise it will be too painful to copycat, and for the US dollar and US stocks, it is just a change of pool, no loss, leaving this backhand, then other countries will follow suit. $BTC $ETH #山寨季何时到来？

Now the only hope is to see the response measures of the Americans on Monday. After Japan raised interest rates again, it deliberately released non-agricultural data on Friday to create Sam's Law. What is the purpose of this deliberate action? But the Americans must be prepared. Microsoft had a downtime test before. Maybe there will be a method similar to the currency circle pulling the network cable to clear a wave of US stock leverage. The best way for the currency circle is that Harris also expressed the view that Bitcoin is a strategic reserve of the United States, and then the overflow funds of the US stock market will be transferred to the currency circle. However, this view depends on how much influence the Americans have in the currency circle now, whether they can influence the trend of the currency circle, as well as the layout of RWA and how deep the tokenization of US debt has entered. Alas, this round of bull market is difficult, and copycats are even more difficult. Also, during the day on Monday, the Asian session may also be very fierce. $ETH #星期一行情

Monday's surge to 70,000 hit the shorts, and they won't give up so easily. The transfer of Bitcoin by the U.S. Department of Justice can be said to have saved the shorts. The interest rate meetings of Japan, the United States, and the United Kingdom at the end of the month were basically expected. It is clear that Japan will raise interest rates and the United States will maintain interest rates unchanged. However, the short sentiment is very strong, and many people still choose to reduce their positions and wait and see. The short position of 72,000 is likely to explode after tonight. After the August non-agricultural data, there is no negative fundamentals. The local dog is also not good, and the cottage has no room to fall. If the sentiment is right, there will be a wave of rush. $ETH $SOL $XRP #美国政府转移BTC #美联储何时降息？ #MtGox钱包动态

Many people think that the pressure of US debt on the US government is very great, so they come to the cryptocurrency circle to harvest and repay debts, push up the price of Bitcoin, and then sell it to repay debts. This idea is unrealistic, because after the ETF is listed, it is already a compliant financial asset allocation and an asset affirmed by the government. When the US government sells a large amount, it is not a matter of selling. It will cause a serious stampede and cut directly to the ankle. What can it cut? Cut contracts? Cut its own shareholders? Then let the cryptocurrency circle fall into a slump? Let the government's credibility and influence disappear in the cryptocurrency circle? Don't worry, it can't do that. What they have to do is to strategically stockpile goods, firmly grasp the control of the cryptocurrency circle in their hands, so that the cryptocurrency circle can go on stably, and make the cake bigger, so that assets can be expanded. Think about what Ondo does.
Issuing US debt does not necessarily mean paying back so many US debts, as long as the interest can be paid back, as long as the military strength is strong enough, US debts and the US dollar are still liquid assets. The biggest problem of the United States is domestic conflicts. If it disintegrates or has a civil war like the Soviet Union, that will be its doomsday crisis.
Think about it, if the US debt is split and the RWA is used to anchor the US debt, the coins you hold are equivalent to holding US debt. Will you ask the US to pay you back? You will only sell the coins to the next person in the market. In this way, the US will never have to pay back the US debt, and it can issue more US debt indefinitely. It is not impossible for Bitcoin to eventually be worth one million. $BTC $ETH $SOL #美债代币化 #比特币大会 #美国大选如何影响加密产业？ #特朗普立场

I said this yesterday and the day before yesterday in the Square. Looking around the global financial market, almost all of them are in decline. Since capital is withdrawing, where will it go? What high-quality assets can attract them? Yesterday was the last trading day and it was still declining, so some funds must have flowed to other places. Since the decline in the past few days has not had much impact on Bitcoin, I was not surprised by the rise this morning. Of course, some retail investors should choose to take profits tonight and tomorrow and wait and see. Next week will be the real market. If capital takes a look here, it will not be so difficult to choose. After several months of washing, there are too many high-quality assets for them to choose from. The listing of Ethereum ETFs next week is almost certain. If this largest copycat can pass the formal regulatory channels and eliminate legal risks, there is this The sample is here, and the altcoins that should be configured will be configured. There will also be more other currencies listed on ETFs one after another, and it is even possible to list a basket of altcoins. In addition to ETH, the next coin to speculate on ETFs is also on the way, SOL, RWA, Binance also has permission to purchase US bonds, and the role of BNB will become bigger. If it can buy US bonds, the United States will allow Binance to grow. The more users and funds there are, the more money will flow into the US bond market, which will also be beneficial to the circulation of US bonds. It can be seen that after the United States dealt with Zhao Changpeng and Binance, it should have mastered most of Binance's authority, which is equivalent to recruiting Binance. It is said that the pressure on US bonds is too great, but when he digitizes US bonds and global users can buy them, does he still need to pay them back? $ETH $SOL $BNB #以太坊ETF批准预期 2631123520#Nextweek's market trend forecast

Looking around the entire global financial market, the major financial markets have basically been falling during this period. The United States, Europe, Asia Pacific, Japan and South Korea, and US bonds are also in a state of selling. Even gold has fallen for three consecutive days. On the last trading day of this week, more US dollars are needed to sell US assets. The US index has rebounded. The expectation of interest rate cuts is approaching. The market has reacted early. Funds are withdrawing on the last trading day. Capital will find a way out by itself. So which pool can hold such a large amount of funds? In recent months, the altcoin market has been very miserable. Most of them are at the lowest price in history. Do you feel that capital will take a look here and find that there are many high-quality assets that can be bought at the bottom. Ethereum's ETF is expected to be listed next week. With Ethereum, the largest altcoin, as an example, it is only a matter of time for other coins with backgrounds, narratives and applications to apply for ETFs. Maybe the big one is really coming. To say a little more, A-shares seem to be a very good pool. A 10% increase is not much. $SOL $ARB $ETH #以太坊ETF批准预期 #大的要来了 #美联储何时降息？
It seems to be okay, there seems to be a sign of capital inflow, the cottage industry has recovered collectively, it seems that the capital knows what to do after taking a look at this, and it is a waste of resources to leave it alone

The big one is coming soon, and it will appear as early as next week. We have already seen the signs.
We can see that the US bond yield is much lower, and it has fallen for three consecutive months and has reached the position of March this year. The US index has also fallen below the 200-day line to 103, and the European and Japanese and Korean stock markets are all weakening. Now the US technology stocks are also weakening. The Dow Jones has been strong for a while. Where has the money gone? Now gold is soaring. The reason for the rise of the Dow Jones is related to the increased possibility of Trump's return to power, because the Dow Jones is more related to the real industry and is related to Trump's return to manufacturing. If the US stock market still cannot pick up by Friday, it means that capital is already taking practical actions for the expectation of interest rate cuts. The interest rate cut has an impact on the US stock market. If it can be digested slowly in advance, it will be a very good thing for Bitcoin.
It can be seen that the decline of US stocks and technology stocks has no major impact on Bitcoin, and A shares are still hovering around 3,000 points. The news I saw today is that the Ethereum ETF may be launched next Tuesday, and Grayscale's Ethereum fund and mini-fund may be able to switch between each other. In this way, Grayscale's selling pressure will be reduced. Let me ask again, where did the money go? Where will it go? Maybe next week, if a little bit flows in, it will be a big deal. $ETH $SOL $ARB #meme板块关注热点 #rwa赛道继续强势 #以太坊ETF批准预期

It has been said that every time the price rises, meme coins take the lead, and every time it is pepe that goes berserk. Next, meme coins will start to rotate floki, wif, not, and then the rwa sector will begin. Among them, ondo is the leader of this sector. The current price of ondo is around 1.1, and it may rush to the price of 2 next. Then other rwa coins will also start to rotate, such as OM, TRU, polyx, RIO, etc. If you miss the rise of meme, you can layout rwa, which will be this sector soon. Then according to reliable information, Ethereum ETF will be listed on the 23rd, and then the Ethereum system will be hyped. At this time, ARB, OP, UNI, LINK, ENS, LDO, SSV, etc., and some Ethereum-related coins are now very low, and many are almost the lowest price in history. After Ethereum is listed, the cottage will also rise. The low enough coins can be laid out now. There are many that you can find by yourself. After the European Cup, there are still the Olympics. The market in August and September may be the market of cottages. Let us wait and see. $ETH $PEPE $ARB #Ondo #币安7周年 #美联储何时降息？

The four engines of the bull market, the approval of Bitcoin ETF, Bitcoin halving, the US election, and the US dollar interest rate cut, have already achieved two, and the remaining two are coming soon.
Then look at the AI ​​prediction of Bitcoin price trends. It will start to climb in October and surge all the way. By the beginning of April 2025, it will rise to about $190,000, and then start to fall to about $150,000, and then fluctuate for a period of time until it reaches its peak on September 27, 2025, and then go down all the way. According to this idea, now is the best time to lay out.
Of course, this is just a prediction of Bitcoin. Will this round of bull market be the last bull market for ordinary people to break through the circle? Not necessarily. Bitcoin's increase is not big. If it relies on copycats, this round is different from the previous ones. More copycat ETFs need to be passed. Many currencies should not die. Ecological currencies among the currencies that can pass ETFs may be the last chance for ordinary people to break through the circle. The recent spot returns are not good. To engage in contracts, you still need AI intelligent quantitative trading, to achieve a scale that can avoid handling fees, and to continuously optimize and adjust the strategy to make stable money in the recent market. You can watch the video on my homepage. I will reveal a little bit. $BTC $SOL $ETH #meme#pepe#floki#sui