牧羊的加密日记

78166 is still the key support for this 4H structure today. The price is currently fluctuating around 78500. Let's see if this support can hold.

If 78166 holds, we might see a small pullback followed by a bounce, aiming first at 79213, and if it breaks higher, then at 79801.
If we break below 78166, the structure will weaken, and we’ll first look at 77748, then 77331.

Small-scale trading strategy:
If we stabilize around 78166 after a pullback, we can go long and look for a bounce, targeting 79213; if we hit the resistance zone without volume, consider scaling back.
If we face resistance around 79213, we can try a light short position, looking back at 78166.

If the 4H closes above 79213 and holds, the momentum will turn bullish, and we’ll look for continuity around 79801; if we break below 78166, the momentum will remain bearish, and we’ll look for pullback confirmations at 77748 and 77331.

Resistance levels: 79213 / 79801
Support levels: 78166 / 77748 / 77331

$BTC macro perspective: range-bound and slightly weak, looking for a bounce first, with the resistance zone being crucial.
#BTC走势分析

$BTC This wave on the 4H has a need for a bounce correction, but the daily timeframe remains bearish. Therefore, this upward move is better viewed as a pullback resistance.
Long Strategy:
As long as it holds above 76,500, if it dips without breaking, you can catch a bounce. For long positions, first target 77,380, then look at the 78,220 area.
Short Strategy:
If the price rebounds to the resistance zone of 77,380 - 78,220 and shows signs of stagnation, a peak and drop, or weakens again, that’s a better spot to look for short opportunities. First target down to 76,580, then look at 76,120.
In the short term, expect a bounce, but the higher timeframe still leans bearish. This upper move looks more like a pullback and redistribution; after the pressure zone is tested, keep an eye on further downward movement.
Resistance Levels: 77,380 / 78,220
Support Levels: 76,580 / 76,120
#BTC走势分析

$BTC 4H We’ve hit a critical divergence zone here, and the key support to watch right now is 77770.
After a recent pump up to the 79485 range, the price started to pull back from the highs, hitting a low near 77770. Now it’s back around 77900, indicating this area has become a short-term pivot point. As long as the 4H chart stays above 77770, it’s likely we’ll see a retest of 78070 before aiming for 78500, and only when it strengthens significantly will we test the previous high at 79485.

If we effectively break below 77770, this pullback isn’t over yet. Next support looks at 77000, and if buying pressure weakens further, we could see a move down to the stronger support at 76300 to find balance.

On smaller timeframes: It’s currently best to make rhythm assessments around 77770. If we hold above this line, we’ll look for a pullback strategy; if we break below it, the rhythm shifts to a weaker consolidation, and chasing longs will noticeably decrease in value.

On larger timeframes: We’re still in the confirmation phase of the first deep pullback after the high. As long as the price doesn’t consistently drop below 76300, the overall structure remains in a high-level range, not indicating a complete trend reversal; moving forward, the real test for the larger timeframe strength will be whether we can reclaim levels above 78500 and challenge 79485 again.

Resistance levels: 78070 / 78500 / 79485
Support levels: 77770 / 77000 / 76300
#比特币突破7.9万美元

$BTC 4H We're still consolidating at this high level, and the key point is the recent support at 77506.

After the previous surge, the price has started to range and digest. Currently, it's still under strong resistance but holding above the recent support, so structurally, it's still leaning towards strong consolidation without showing direct weakness. Moving forward, as long as the 4H stays above 77506, we might see attempts to test 77993 and 78374. For real upward movement, we'll need to watch 78824, which is a stronger resistance.

On the lower timeframes:
First, let's see how well 77506 holds up. If it holds, the market will likely continue to consolidate before making another push; if it breaks, it could easily drop to 76070 to find some support.

On the higher timeframes:
This phase can still be understood as a high-level consolidation. The main structure is intact. As long as we don't see a sustained drop back below 75019, the overall sentiment remains in a strong consolidation range. The focus will be on whether we can reclaim the resistance zone from 78374 to 78824.

Resistance levels: 77993 / 78374 / 78824
Support levels: 77506 / 76070 / 75019
#BTC走势分析

$BTC 4H This is still a rebound structure within a fluctuation, the key is whether 74600 can hold.

The previous pullback just hit 74095, and then it was quickly pulled back above 75000, indicating that there is still support in this range of chips. As long as 4H continues to stay above 74608, the price will still have the action to try 75389 again. Once it stabilizes, we will continue to look at 76485 above.

If 74608 is lost again, the short term will first return to 74095, and if it is weak, we will look at the support zone of 73744-73496.

Resistance levels: 75389 / 76485 / 77079
Support levels: 74608 / 74095 / 73744 / 73496

$BTC Previously, the highest reached was 76,038, close to 76.8K but it didn't break through and came down.

Currently, the funding rate is still slightly negative, and the shorts haven’t fully exited. In this position, both long and short have their reasons, but the high points are moving down, leaning slightly more towards short in the short term.

Combined with the variables from Yimena's side, it is not suitable to chase highs and cut lows right now; let's see if there are any support signals around 72.9K.

If it can't rebound above 74.9K: → still weak recovery → continue to test 72.9K later.

If 72.9K cannot be held: → continue to look for support at 71.1K/70.5K.

Support: 72.9K, 70.7K
Resistance: 74.9K, 76.1K

$BTC The funds are very tight, and this funding rate at this position is a bit abnormal.

Currently, it is unclear whether there are large funds with insider information desperately building short positions, or if retail investors are all rushing to short.
I tend to lean towards the former; both long and short positions make sense at this level, but do not easily chase peaks and valleys. I believe that in conjunction with the Yimei incident, a clear market trend will soon emerge.

Support: 72.6K, 70.7K
Resistance: 76.1K
#BTC走势分析

$BTC In this round 4H, the target level I looked at yesterday was 76.8k. The market did indeed go up, but it didn't pull back directly before going up again; instead, it went up and then came down. After reaching around 76K, it didn't continue, so the short-term looks more like a downward fluctuation after a high-level retreat.

Now the key level to watch is 72.9K, which is the recent main support in this round. Above, 75.9K is still the main resistance. Until it stands back above that, don't rush to see the rhythm as turning strong again.

If it fails to rebound above 75.9K: → It looks more like a weak recovery → It will continue to test 72.9K later.

If 72.9K cannot hold: → It will easily continue to seek support around 71.1K / 70.5K.

Resistance: 75.9K
Support: 72.9K
#BTC走势分析

$BTC and the outcome is the same as yesterday's predicted line. Although the process was much more decisive than expected, several lines pushed up directly! Now it still tends to be volatile and slightly bullish, the key is whether 73.8K can be maintained.

This 4H wave is not a reversal structure, but more like digestion after hitting the pressure zone. As long as 73.8K holds, there will be opportunities to continue testing 76.8K upwards.

If 73.8K holds: → First continue with volatile consolidation → After the consolidation, then go for 76.8K

If it breaks below 73.8K: → The current bullish logic will fail first → It may easily turn into a deeper pullback

Resistance: 76.8K
Support: 73.8K
#BTC走势分析

$Binance life, the contract opened at 0.045, exited at 0.07!
Now it's at 0.3, going crazy!
In this kind of market, how on earth do you catch a mad dog?
It's making people anxious.

$BTC ,70.5K Five attempts did not break, the bulls are still supporting.

Sideways for four days, the MACD green bars are starting to narrow, and the bearish momentum is weakening. MA7 is running below, short-term is weak, but it is not a trend-based short.

Holding 70.5K → First look for a rebound at $71.5K, stabilize before pushing 72K, so 70.5k is the last line of defense for the bulls, five bottoms have not broken, the bears are temporarily unable to smash it, it is an important position!
The current MACD histogram is starting to narrow, and the bearish momentum is weakening. Wait for the market to choose a direction, no need to rush.
Break below 70.5k: → First catch at the psychological level of 70k → If broken, look at 69k.

Resistance: 71.5k / 72.8k / 73.8k
Support: 70.5k / 70k / 69k
#BTC

$BTC This part may seem complicated, but the core focus is on 71.3k.
Hold this level, the structure is still in a high position, and there will be opportunities to test 73.8k later;
Once it breaks down, the short-term may easily weaken, first watch for support around 70k.
Now is not the time for mindless chasing,
It feels more like waiting for the market to choose its direction.
Resistance: 73.8k
Support: 71.3k
#BTC走势分析

Today's main news in the market revolves around regulation, payment, and spillover risks from the Middle East.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced today the first batch of stablecoin licenses, with only two issued: HSBC and the consortium of Standard Chartered/ANZ Group/HKT's Dots Financial Technology. This signal is very direct: stablecoins are officially entering a phase of high barriers, strong licensing, and strong institutional endorsement, where the competition is not just about the ability to issue coins, but also about clearing, compliance, channels, and real application scenarios.

On another front, the European Central Bank has also expressed support for further concentrating cross-border financial regulatory authority, including crypto asset service providers, under ESMA. In the U.S., the focus continues on advancing digital asset industry network threat intelligence sharing and the regulatory framework for stablecoins and market structure. Looking at these various lines together, the industry is transitioning from "barbaric growth" to "regulatable financial infrastructure."

The payment and asset sides have not stopped either. Circle responded tonight to the USDC asset freeze controversy, emphasizing that operations would only occur if required by law enforcement agencies; Bitget launched U.S. stock IPO subscription services, continuing to direct on-chain funds toward traditional financial products. $ETH is hovering around $2,200, indicating that mainstream assets are still being pulled between risk appetite and policy expectations.

On a macro level, the larger variable remains the Middle East. Today's disputes over the Strait of Hormuz, attacks on Saudi energy facilities, and ongoing expectations for U.S.-Iran talks continue to stir the market; these are not just emotional noise, but upstream variables that will directly affect oil prices, inflation expectations, and the pricing of risk assets. In the short term, the crypto market will continue to be driven by both geopolitical and regulatory factors.
#香港首批稳定币牌照出炉

War and negotiations, is this playing house?
$BTC 's fluctuations are completely controlled by the news now.

Before yesterday's negotiation news came out, a mysterious fund shorted crude oil with 50 million US dollars, easily harvesting profits. Who placed this order? It's hard to guess!

A makeshift troupe, TMD. The liquidity in the crypto circle is really hard to look at. I took a look at Binance's spot market, and there are a bunch of cryptocurrencies with a market cap under 10 million. Could you have imagined this before?

Recognize the reality, the crypto circle really has not much activity now. The market needs a thorough cleansing and reshaping to possibly welcome a new wealth effect, which could awaken those who are playing dead and just watching the excitement.

Still do not believe that a big bull market will start at this point in time; a complete washout is still needed! $BTC will still break 60K! #霍尔木兹海峡再次关闭

Today, the sentiment in the market can be summarized in one sentence: some cryptocurrencies are rising independently, not a broad market increase; do not mistake the local for the whole.

The top two in the gainers list have both increased by over 50%, but the macro situation between the US and Iran is escalating, and risk appetite is declining. This market condition is suitable for light-position tracking, not for heavy-position speculation.

Gainers List 1: $JOE

Current Price: USD 0.0708
Today saw a breakout in volume, with gains approaching 100%. JOE is an established DEX token in the Avalanche ecosystem, and the ecosystem is sound, but the short-term gains are excessive.

Support: USD 0.055 / 0.045
Resistance: USD 0.078 / 0.085

How to view: Not recommended to chase. Wait for a pullback to the USD 0.055-0.06 range to see if there is support.

Gainers List 2: $CREAM (+65.35%)
Current Price: USD 2.10
CREAM is an established DeFi lending protocol. It has not had much volume in the past two years, possibly due to a rebound after an oversold condition. The volatility of such small tokens can be significant.

Support: USD 1.80 / 1.50
Resistance: USD 2.30 / 2.60
How to view: Heavy positions are not recommended. Positions should not exceed 5%; if it stabilizes above USD 2, it can be held.

Observation Pool

$NOM (+53.14%): Gains are excessive, wait for a pullback
$PNT (+45.23%): Low trading volume, light-position tracking
$EDU (+29.93%): Education concept, can be monitored

━━━━━━━━━━
Macroeconomic Situation

• US-Iran situation escalates → Risk appetite declines
• Tether raised 500 billion → Long-term positive for stablecoins
• Quantum computing threat → Sentiment impact greater than actual

Overall Strategy
1. The top 2 gainers are not recommended for chasing highs
2. Wait for a pullback to see if there is support
3. Keep positions light, as macro risk appetite declines
4. Wait for confirmation signals in the observation pool before participating

In summary: individual cryptocurrencies are showing independent trends; do not mistake the local for the whole, wait for a pullback and do not chase highs.
#加密市场反弹

Geopolitics (US-Iran Conflict) is the greatest uncertainty, the Tuesday midnight deadline set by Trump is a key moment

Today the market is mainly trading these matters:
1. The US-Iran geopolitical conflict continues, Trump has set a Tuesday midnight deadline, the market is waiting for clarity in the situation / If the conflict escalates, short-term volatility will significantly increase
2. Bitcoin spot ETF saw nearly 500 million dollars inflow in one day, institutional funds are an important medium-term support / ETF flows can serve as a short-term sentiment indicator
3. MicroStrategy continues to increase its Bitcoin holdings, with a portfolio value exceeding 58 billion dollars, the trend of corporate treasury allocation continues / Saylor's purchasing pace can serve as a reference signal

#Strategy增持比特币

The market is very confusing
$BTC broke a downward trend on the 4-hour line yesterday and filled the previous 4-hour gap
Currently, it is not advisable to blindly chase short positions; the focus is on the 69500 level. The short position I placed at 69500 has been executed, and I have set a breakeven stop loss for now to see how today's daily close turns out.
If it successfully stands above the 4H EMA120 moving average, I will shift to a bullish mindset.

There isn't much time left for $BTC
After a rebound, it filled the gap on the four-hour chart and then came under pressure
The market is being tightly constrained by the downward trend line
69500 is a strong pressure that suppresses it; how can so many people be bullish at this position?
I think it will soon go down to find a new low point
It's just a matter of these few days..

Today's news, took a glance

ETF fund flows:
$BTC ETF net inflow of 22.2 million USD this week, $ETH ETF net outflow of 42.1 million USD. Funds are diverging—BTC is seeing a slight return, while ETH is still being sold off. What does this indicate? It indicates that funds are seeking safety, and the risk premium for ETH has been compressed.

Large on-chain funds:
Dragonfly experienced its first outflow in two months, transferring 2.12 million USD MNT to Bybit. This is a signal of institutional position adjustment and is worth being cautious about.

Macro big events:
The geopolitical conflict between Trump and Iran is still fermenting. In this situation, the first reaction of funds is to seek safety—USD is strengthening, and risk assets are under pressure. In the crypto space, BTC's safe-haven attribute is being discussed, but the actual performance... is just so-so.

Financial market environment:
On the US stock side, the trend of QQQ is improving, but there is a lack of breadth, making the rebound foundation unstable. The Asian and European/American stock markets did not have significant movements today, but geopolitical issues remain an uncertain factor. In this environment, don't expect the crypto market to have an independent trend.

Positive news:

• Continuous net inflow for BTC ETF
• EIGEN releases AgentKit Beta version

Negative news:

• Continuous net outflow for ETH ETF
• Drift Protocol was attacked (suspected North Korean hackers, loss of 285 million)
• Geopolitical risks

Macro remains Risk-Off, liquidity neutral, credit tightening. In this market, position size is more important than coin selection. Don't be too aggressive; wait for clear direction before making moves.
#Drift称攻击事件疑为朝鲜黑客策划

Today, let's take a look at some hot altcoins.

$ADI has become the official prediction market partner for the FIFA World Cup. This is the first time on-chain prediction markets are entering the World Cup, and there's a story to tell.

$SNDK is more straightforward; Binance has launched perpetual contracts for stocks, tracking Sandisk's stock price with up to 10x leverage. Traditional stocks and crypto have been connected.

$DRIFT seems off; the team transferred 56.25 million coins to an exchange, worth 2.44 million dollars. This kind of selling signal should be taken seriously.

$INJ's stablecoin AUSD has stopped issuance, and the redemption window is open until September. This is a short-term negative, but it provides a buffer period.

$WLD has had its coin-based perpetual contracts delisted by Binance, with the project team cashing out 65 million. This operation... everyone can judge for themselves.

Binance listed $MU today and delisted $HIPPO, $RLS, and $PUFFER. Old contracts are being phased out to make room for new ones; it's a usual operation.

$LIGHTER rebounded over 50% from 0.77, and the short-term heat is still there. HYPE whales are unlocking, and there's a lot of discussion about trading strategies.

Macroeconomically, it's still Risk-Off, with neutral liquidity, tightening credit, and rising volatility. In this market, don't expect altcoins to take off collectively.

My judgment:

• For ADI and SNDK, which have clear narratives, keep an eye on them.
• For DRIFT and WLD, which have sell-offs or delistings, it's better to stay away for now.
• For LIGHTER, which has rebounded too sharply, don't chase it; wait for a pullback.

In today's market, selecting coins is more important than position size. Don't go all in; spread your holdings and keep an eye on things.