The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point on Wednesday and signalled more reductions would follow, launching its first easing cycle since the onset of the pandemic.
The US central bank’s first cut in more than four years leaves the federal funds rate at a range of 4.75 per cent to 5 per cent. Michelle Bowman, a member of the Federal Open Market Committee, voted in favour of a quarter-point cut — the first Fed governor since 2005 to dissent from a rate decision.
The bumper half-point cut suggests the US central bank is seeking to pre-empt any weakening of the US economy and labour market after more than a year of holding rates at their highest level since 2001.
The last time the Fed cut rates by more than a quarter point was when Covid-19 tore across the global economy in 2020.
“The US economy is in a good place and our decision today is designed to keep it there,” Fed chair Jay Powell said at a news conference on Wednesday.
“This recalibration of our policy stance will help maintain the strength of the economy and the labour market and will continue to enable further progress on inflation as we begin the process of moving towards a more neutral stance,” he said.
However, Powell said rates were not on a “preset” path, noting that if inflation proved sticky the Fed could “dial back policy restraint more slowly”. Equally, the central bank was “prepared to respond” if the labour market weakened unexpectedly, he added.
“We do not think we are behind [in cutting rates],” Powell said. “But you can take this as a sign of our commitment to not get behind.”
In a statement on Wednesday, the FOMC said it had gained “greater confidence” about inflation, even though it remained “somewhat elevated”.
US stocks rallied immediately after the announcement but peaked shortly after Powell began his press conference. The S&P 500, which was steady earlier in the day, jumped as much as 1.1 per cent, briefly surpassing its intraday record high but eased to trade unchanged on the day.
Treasury yields dipped slightly. The yield on the two-year note, which is particularly sensitive to monetary policy, slipped 0.06 percentage points to 3.59 per cent following the Fed’s announcement, having risen slightly before the news. Lower yields reflect higher prices.
In the latest “dot plot” of officials’ forecasts, most expected the policy rate would fall to 4.25 per cent to 4.5 per cent by the end of 2024, suggesting another large half-point reduction at either of the two remaining meetings this year or two quarter-point reductions. Overall, that is a significantly larger reduction than the quarter-point cut projected by most officials in June, when the dot plot was last updated.
Two of the 19 officials who pencilled in estimates thought the Fed should hold off after Wednesday’s reduction, while another seven forecast only one more quarter-point cut this year.
US Fed signals further rate cuts by end of 2024
Each dot represents one FOMC participant's projection for the midpoint of US interest rates (%) from every meeting since December 2023

Policymakers also expected the funds rate to fall another percentage point in 2025, ending the year between 3.25 per cent to 3.5 per cent. By the end of 2026, it was estimated to fall just below 3 per cent.
Some analysts said the Fed’s decision pointed to underlying concerns about the economy.
“It’s a very muddy picture out there,” said Jack Manley, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. “The macro data are not nearly as clear-cut as we’d have liked.”
“The Fed is looking at this economy and saying ‘we’re making more progress on inflation than we thought, but we think the labour market is starting to slip and it could get worse’,” Manley added. “That to me is not a good sign.”
Wednesday’s decision is a milestone for the central bank after more than two years battling inflation — and a significant moment in this year’s presidential election.
Falling borrowing costs will be a boon for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, whose campaign has been dogged by voter disquiet over high living costs even as the US economy has boomed.
President Joe Biden welcomed the Fed’s move, saying in a post on X: “We just reached an important moment: Inflation and interest rates are falling while the economy remains strong. The critics said it couldn’t happen — but our policies are lowering costs and creating jobs.”
The cut comes as Fed officials grow more confident that inflation is under control and turn their focus to the health of the labour market.
After peaking in 2022 at about 7 per cent, the personal consumption expenditures price index was just 2.5 per cent in July, closer to the Fed’s 2 per cent target.
Fed makes first rate cut in four years
US federal funds effective rate (%), since 1954, recessions shaded

But jobs growth has cooled in recent months and other measures of demand, such as vacancies, have also slowed, even though the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits remains historically low.
The Fed has made clear it does not want to see further labour market weakening amid concerns it has waited too long to loosen its grip on the economy by lowering borrowing costs.
In projections released on Wednesday, most officials forecast the unemployment rate to peak at 4.4 per cent over the next two years, up from its current level of 4.2 per cent and higher than June’s estimates, while economic growth stabilises at a 2 per cent rate over the next several years.
Officials also forecast a more benign inflation backdrop, with PCE falling back to target in 2026. The median estimate for “core” inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, was revised lower to 2.6 per cent for this year, before falling to 2.2 per cent and 2 per cent over the next two years.
Officials have become more upbeat about the US economy
Median projections by the FOMC of the change in real GDP, core PCE inflation and unemployment for each FOMC meeting since September 2022

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September’s Historical Performance
Bitcoin usually struggles in September. It drops an average of 6.56% in value. This trend makes cryptocurrency investors careful.
“September is a historically negative month for Bitcoin, as data shows it has an average value depletion rate of 6.56%. Thus far this month, the investor sentiment around Bitcoin has been negative as the coin has traded between $49,000 and $66,000,” Innokenty Isers, Founder and CEO at Paybis, told BeInCrypto.
BTC’s price is under $60,000. It fell 7.5% last week. Market swings and rule changes are partly to blame.
Factors Influencing Price
Despite negative outlooks, big financial changes could help BTC. Innokenty Isers, Paybis CEO, told BeInCrypto:
“Should the Feds cut the interest rate in September, it might help Bitcoin re-write its negative history. This is because rate cuts generally lead to excessive US Dollar flow in the economy. This reduces the Dollar’s purchasing power, further strengthening the outlook of Bitcoin as a store of value. Many institutional investors are already proving this point with massive Bitcoin accumulations. If the Fed’s policies weaken the dollar, switching to risk assets with higher growth potential might be inevitable”.
A rate cut could increase US Dollar flow. This might make Bitcoin more valuable. It could lead to more big investors buying cryptocurrency.

Investor Sentiment Indicators
The MVRV Ratio shows how investors feel. Bitcoin’s 90-day MVRV is at -4.8%. This situation suggests people might buy more.
In the past, when Bitcoin’s MVRV was between -2% and -12%, prices often went up. During these times, people tend to buy more BTC.
Potential Price Scenarios
There are two main Bitcoin price predictions. First, BTC might stay under $68,300. It’s had trouble going above this price before.
Or, Bitcoin could go above $68,300. This might lead to a 22% price jump. It could even set a new record above $73,800. But this depends on buying trends and possible rate cuts.
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