零下十三度

All fans of Shisan:
If you register an exchange with Shisan's Binance link, you can directly get a 30% commission rebate.
Among them, the link automatically returns 20%; Shisan manually returns 10%.
Shisan's status is not big, so the platform's rebate ratio for me is not very high, 30% is already the limit.
If you have a large trading volume and many contracts, registering with Shisan's link is the best choice.

Shisan's exclusive rebate link: https://www.binance.com/join?ref=CH3VL36C
Just click to register, or directly enter the invitation code: CH3VL36C

Today, there's been a complete 180-degree turn between the US and Iran; a ceasefire agreement is officially in place.
On May 29, Tamir Hayman, former head of Israeli intelligence, confirmed that the US and Iran have officially signed an agreement in Oman to extend the ceasefire for another 60 days.

This 60-day temporary memorandum of understanding includes key points like:
Extending the ceasefire for 60 days and initiating negotiations on Iran's nuclear issue;
Iran to clear mines in the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days and restore normal shipping operations;
Lifting the US maritime blockade in the Strait of Hormuz;
Granting Iran a sanctions exemption for oil sales;
Phased unfreezing of Iran's frozen overseas assets.

Negotiations are still ongoing. The US wants Iran to lift the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz first, then they’ll follow suit, while Iran insists that the US should lift its blockade first.
There’s also the issue of nuclear materials; the US demands that Iran abandon its nuclear program, hand over nuclear materials, and destroy them, whereas Iran argues for dilution or transfer to China and Russia within its territory.
On the asset unfreezing front, the US also wants Iran to lift the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, considering the unfreezing of some assets.
Currently, everything is still under negotiation, but there doesn't seem to be significant obstacles to a mutual agreement.
The only uncertainty factor is Israel, the disruptor, which might throw a wrench in the works and stop the agreement from being finalized.
We'll be keeping a close eye on the developments in the upcoming rounds.

Today, there was a complete 180-degree turnaround between the US and Iran, as a ceasefire agreement has officially been reached. On May 29, Tamir Hayman, the former head of Israeli intelligence, confirmed that the US and Iran have formally signed an agreement in Oman to extend the ceasefire for 60 days. The core content of this 60-day temporary memorandum of understanding includes: extending the ceasefire for 60 days, initiating negotiations on Iran's nuclear issues; Iran must clear mines from the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days to restore normal shipping order; the US will lift its maritime blockade of the Strait of Hormuz; the US grants Iran an exemption from sanctions on oil sales; and there will be a phased unfreezing of Iran's frozen overseas assets. Negotiations are still ongoing, with the US wanting Iran to lift the blockade of the Strait first, and then it will follow suit, while Iran wants the US to lift its blockade first. Also, regarding the handling of nuclear materials, the US demands that Iran abandon its nuclear program, hand over nuclear materials, and destroy them, while Iran insists on diluting or transferring them to China and Russia within its territory. As for the unfreezing of assets, the US also wants Iran to lift the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz while considering the unfreezing of some assets. Currently, discussions are still underway, but there are no major obstacles to the willingness of both parties to reach an agreement. The only uncertainty factor is Israel, which might throw a wrench in the works and hinder the achievement of the agreement. We'll be closely monitoring the situation over the next thirteen rounds.

The market keeps sliding down, and the sentiment has entered a zone of absolute panic. As mentioned in yesterday's article, the reasons for the drop remain unchanged. Let's throw out some additional factors for everyone to consider.
=First off,
we're seeing the largest options expiration in history.
Around $6.3 billion to $9 billion worth of BTC and ETH options are expiring today, with a notional value approaching $7.5 billion.
Current prices are significantly below the $75,000 pain point, with put options outnumbering call options over 3 to 1, leading to a massive gamma and spot sell-off.
Secondly, there’s a chain reaction of leverage long liquidations.
In the past 24 hours, the total amount liquidated across the board ranges from $228 million to $342 million, with long positions accounting for over 50% of the liquidations, and the largest single liquidations are concentrated in retail accounts.
Finally, panic sentiment is escalating.
The Fear and Greed Index is hovering around 23, remaining in the "extreme fear" zone for three consecutive days, while on-chain activity has dropped to a months-long low.
These three points are for your reference~

Today someone in the group said something that really hit home: "Brother 13, every time I see extreme fear, I think it's the bottom, but after I buy in, I find it goes even lower. Now that I see a 22, I'm hesitant to act."
Brother 13 replied with a simple statement: "The extreme fear reading itself has never been a signal for you to buy the dip.
It's just a signal to take a look at your position and confirm how many bullets you have left."
The fear index at 22 is an effect, not a cause.
Geopolitical tensions rising are the cause, short-term ETF outflows are the cause, investors pulling out regardless of cost are the cause, and emotions simply reflect the total pressure of these factors faithfully.
But you need to understand one thing: wallets holding over 1,000 BTC are increasing, and Bitcoin is flowing from exchanges to cold wallets.
Bitcoin dropped to 72,800, but the whales are still buying.
Saylor paused his purchases this week, but he hasn't sold.
While ETFs have seen outflows for eight consecutive days, Morgan Stanley's MSBT is the only ETF recording net inflows, and in Q1 2026, U.S. banks are also increasing their IBIT holdings.
Though the number of these contrarians is small, their demonstration effect in the institutional circle is more important than anything else.
What the market lacks is not money, but confidence.
Before you decide to cut your losses, ask yourself one question: who is picking up the chips you are throwing away? When we throw shade at each other, who is the real sb?
So manage your position well and hold on, waiting for the news to clear up completely.
Brother 13's circle is still recruiting. We don't do free trades, and we don't play tricks. You pay, I provide analysis.
In this market of extreme fear, a calm and rational voice is invaluable.
The above is personal investment analysis and does not constitute investment advice. The market is risky, and decisions should be made cautiously.

Keep it up, crypto folks,
Welcome to follow Brother 13, let's navigate through the bull and bear markets and see through the happenings in the crypto world.

As of May 25, Strategy still holds 843,738 BTC, with a market cap of about $65.25 billion and a total cost of $63.88 billion, averaging around $75,700 per coin.
That's right, after Bitcoin dropped below $73,000, Strategy's position has been at a paper loss, but Saylor hasn’t sold a single coin and hasn’t made any new buys.
This week, Strategy chose to repurchase convertible bonds maturing in 2029 with about $1.38 billion in cash, which Saylor described as a way to build liquidity for a new round of accumulation.
More importantly, Strategy's scale is far larger than small-cap listed companies.
Among eight U.S. listed companies, the one that increased its holdings the most last week, Strive, only bought 500 BTC.
In contrast, Strategy's holdings are thousands of times that amount, making these small purchases completely ineffective against the daily outflows of ETFs.
If real big buyers return, the impact would be hundreds of times greater than these small buys.
Saylor mentioned that selling some Bitcoin by the end of 2026 is "not impossible," but if even Strategy's pause in buying is interpreted by the market as "the bull is gone," it’s not that the data is wrong, but rather that the sentiment is too fragile.
Will an avalanche come? No one knows.
Right now, the recommendation is for everyone to remove all leverage from their positions, even if it's just one or two times, and to hold only spot.
The current market has entered a decisive price zone.
FameEX data shows that if Bitcoin's price drops below $70,110, the cumulative long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $837 million.
Conversely, if it can challenge the resistance at $76,752, it would trigger up to $2.403 billion in short liquidations.
As for Ethereum, if it loses the support at $1,883, $353 million in long positions will face liquidation risk, while if it can break above $2,078, it corresponds to $1.225 billion in short liquidations.
The intensity of the battle at these two price levels will far exceed the current situation, and any breakthrough by either side could trigger large-scale cascading liquidations.
The market is unpredictable and too chaotic, so everyone should reduce their trading activity.

ETF data overall shows institutions are retreating, but smart money is absorbing in the opposite direction.
ETF data is one of the most concerning signals on the charts, but we must look through its two sides.
On May 27, the US Bitcoin spot ETF recorded a net outflow of $733 million in a single day, marking the largest single-day redemption scale in nearly six months, with net outflows continuing for the eighth consecutive trading day.
BlackRock's IBIT saw a single-day net outflow of $528 million, the second-largest in IBIT's history, accounting for over 70% of the total outflow that day.
Grayscale's GBTC had an outflow of $105 million, while Fidelity's FBTC saw a $60.3 million outflow.
Morgan Stanley's MSBT was the only ETF with a net inflow that day, bringing in just $4.29 million.
More critically, the cumulative net inflow for Bitcoin spot ETFs in 2026 has been compressed to around $536 million, approaching the critical point of turning from positive to negative for the year.
However, we must remind our peers of a fact that the market often overlooks: the massive outflow from ETFs does not contradict the accumulation of wallet addresses.
On-chain data shows that during the drop from $75,000 to $72,800, the number of addresses holding over 1,000 BTC actually increased by 12.
The net flow of Bitcoin on exchanges recorded a net outflow of about 15,600 BTC over the past 48 hours, indicating that a large number of chips are moving from trading platforms to cold wallets.
This divergence of price decline alongside on-chain accumulation is a typical characteristic of market differentiation under macro shocks.
Short-term leveraged traders and panic retail investors are getting washed out as prices fall, while funds with a longer holding period perspective are using liquidity shocks to gather chips.
The market is not a single-direction panic sell-off, but rather different funds with varying attributes making completely opposite operational decisions within the same price range.

The core drivers behind this drop aren't issues within the crypto market itself, but rather two major macroeconomic headwinds hitting at the same time.
First mountain: The US-Iran situation escalated overnight.
In the early hours of May 28, there were reports of explosions in the southern Iranian port of Abbas.
A US official confirmed to Reuters that the US military launched new strikes against Iranian military bases threatening shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and intercepted multiple Iranian drones.
President Trump stated that the US will continue to control Iranian assets, adding that if things don't go well, 'we could quickly end the war with Iran, and may have to do so.'
The previously established framework for understanding between the US and Iran instantly became worthless.
Even though the market had partially priced in some positive aspects of a peace agreement, the reality of military strikes exposed at dawn stripped all premiums out of the price structure.
Geopolitical uncertainty has boosted demand for the dollar and US Treasuries while suppressing risk appetite, leading to accelerated capital outflow from the crypto market.
Brent crude oil slightly rose to $97 per barrel, gold fell below $4,400 per ounce, and safe-haven assets diverged; Bitcoin is showing more attributes of a risk asset in this environment, rather than acting as digital gold.
To truly become digital gold, it's a long and winding road ahead.
Second mountain: The expectations for interest rate hikes have broken through a critical point.
On May 22, Kevin Warsh was officially sworn in as the new chairman of the Federal Reserve.
Originally, the market was hoping for rate cuts, but the sentiment flipped; federal funds futures show that the expectation for a 25 basis point hike in September has surged to 67%, while the 10-year Treasury yield remains above 4.6%.
It's worth noting that back in February, the market was pricing in three rate cuts in 2026; it took less than three months for the expectation to shift from three cuts to a potential hike.
With PCE data set to be released this week, the trimmed mean PCE (only 2.4% in March 2026) that Warsh advocates has a huge discrepancy compared to the traditional core PCE (which was as high as 3.2% during the same period); this difference could become Warsh's reason to press the pause button on rate hikes at the June FOMC—this is one of the most important unknown variables recently.
These two mountains are the main reasons for today's market crash.

Today's market is looking pretty grim. Bitcoin has officially lost the psychological barrier of $75,000, sliding down to around $74,000, and even dipped below $73,000 at one point.
As of this writing, Bitcoin is priced at approximately $73,200, with a further increase in its 24-hour decline.
ETH is also dropping, hovering around $2,000 and fluctuating back and forth, while previously strong altcoins like NEAR, WLD, and ONDO are all pulling back.
In the past 24 hours, there's been a liquidation of $470 million across the network, with long positions liquidating $420 million.
The Fear and Greed Index has plummeted to 22, officially entering the extreme fear zone.
The current market is heavily influenced by news; whether it goes up or down doesn't truly reflect the current bull or bear state.
A genuine bear or bull market requires extreme panic and frenzy, with everything being driven by investor sentiment.
Right now, the market cycle is such that good news from the States causes a rally, while bad news leads to a drop, resulting in high randomness.
This is also why I've been stressing in previous articles that the current candlestick charts have lost their reference value, as almost all technical indicators have failed.
When making trades, everyone needs to be cautious because there isn't much to rely on; just hope for a bit of luck.
Of course, our circle of friends is mostly playing dead right now, including myself.

Bank of America increased its holdings in IBIT for Q1, while Morgan Stanley continues to accumulate MSBT.
In a generally bearish market, there are still some contrarian signals worth noting.
According to Bank of America's latest 13F filing, its crypto ETF holdings for Q1 2026 are close to $53 million, primarily in BlackRock's IBIT (increased to about 972,590 shares, worth approximately $37.3 million), showing a significant rise compared to the previous quarter.
At the same time, Bank of America holds about 3.96 million shares of MicroStrategy stock (which translates to a notable indirect exposure to Bitcoin), while reducing its exposure to Ethereum and Solana.
Morgan Stanley's MSBT is also continuously attracting capital, having accumulated approximately $264 million in net inflows since its listing on April 8, with last week being the only net inflow BTC spot ETF (MSBT had a weekly net inflow of $1.11 million), surpassing some older products in the same sector.
The contrarian accumulation by these two Wall Street giants sends a signal:
While most funds are tactically withdrawing, some long-term institutional capital is still using this adjustment phase to position themselves, opting for the lower fee structure of ETPs to execute their strategies.

Thirteen Circle is still recruiting. No free signals, no gimmicks. You pay, I provide insights.
In this uncertain market, a calm and rational voice is incredibly valuable.
The above is personal investment analysis and does not constitute investment advice. The market has risks; decisions should be made cautiously.

Keep pushing, crypto fam,
Welcome to follow Thirteen, let's navigate the bull and bear markets together and see through the complexities of the crypto world.

What are the bulls and bears positioning for? On-chain data reveals the core structure of the game.
CryptoQuant data shows that the 30-day apparent demand is about 147,000 BTC, marking the weakest reading of 2026, meaning that over the past month, the selling flow outpaced buying by approximately 147,000 BTC.
At the same time, whales are accumulating at a yearly high.
The number of entities holding at least 1,000 BTC reached 1,282 on May 22, matching the yearly peak set on May 3.
The divergence between whales and retail investors is the strongest since November 2024, indicating that smart money is accumulating on the dips while retail is retreating.
Regarding the Fear and Greed Index, different data sources show slight variations: Alternative.me reports 34, while Baiyi reports 39.
The trends across different data point in the same direction, slowly recovering from last week's extreme fear (25), but still falling in the fear zone, far from optimistic levels.
In terms of funding rates, the current 8-hour average funding rate for BTC is about 0.004%-0.01%, at a very low level, with no short squeeze catalyst in the form of negative rates and no signs of excessive bullishness.
Exchange reserves remain close to a decade low, with supply-side structure still leaning supportive, but as noted by Enflux, tightening supply alone is not enough to push prices higher; if buyers don't step in further, any upward momentum is hard to sustain.

The latest update from May 26 indicates that the situation in Hormuz remains volatile.
The US military confirmed "defensive strikes" against Iranian missile facilities and minesweepers, while Iran accused the US of violating the ceasefire agreement, highlighting a significant gap between the so-called peace framework and actual stability.
Although several media outlets have reported on the draft framework, which includes restoring navigation within 30 days, relaxing Iranian oil export restrictions, and extending the ceasefire for another 60 days, both sides still haven't fully reached consensus on nuclear enrichment, lifting sanctions, and control over the Strait.
Market sentiment towards the peace agreement has shown a "wolf is coming" fatigue reaction. However, over the weekend, the market responded positively to news of a potential US-Iran agreement.
After Trump confirmed that both sides were advancing the memorandum of understanding draft, oil prices reacted by dropping; Brent crude fell back into the $90-96 range, while WTI stabilized around $90, effectively reducing the geopolitical premium that had accumulated earlier.
The decline in oil prices directly alleviated the "oil → inflation → interest rates" transmission chain that has made the crypto market anxious, providing a crucial push for Bitcoin to rebound from a low of 74,500 to above 76,000.
In the words of a Bitunix analyst: the essence of the Strait of Hormuz is "negotiating, gaming, and applying pressure"; the real uncertainty has never vanished, and the market is just beginning to realize this.
The latter part is the key: if the market cannot confirm that the oil price and interest rate environment have truly stabilized, the window for institutional funds to flow back in will be continuously delayed.

Saylor hits the pause button, shocking the market, but the reality might not be that scary.
Today, another bombshell in the crypto space: Strategy reported for the first time since its 2020 pivot that it hasn’t increased its Bitcoin holdings in the weekly update, instead opting to spend about $1.38 billion in cash to buy back zero-coupon convertible bonds maturing in 2029 with a face value of about $1.5 billion.
This news triggered a sell-off in crypto-related stocks like MSTR and Coinbase after hours last Friday, with Citigroup cutting MicroStrategy's target price from $314 to $274.
A tactical shift from a single institution sparked cross-market emotional contagion, indicating that the market is in a highly sensitive phase where one move can be over-interpreted.
As of May 25, Strategy still holds 843,738 BTC, valued at approximately $6.525 billion, with an average cost of about $75,701.
Since August 2020, it has made 110 buying transactions.
Based on current holdings, it's still about 156,000 BTC short of its goal to hold 1 million BTC by the end of the year.
That 61,000 BTC demand gap needs to be filled one way or another, so from this perspective, Saylor's pause is essentially optimizing the buying timing, not a strategic abandonment.
Moreover, while Strategy and BitMine hit the brakes, four other listed companies, including Strive and The Smarter Web Company PLC, collectively added 612 BTC (about $47.5 million) last week, showing that corporate Bitcoin purchases haven’t completely stopped.
We all know Saylor will make a comeback and buy back Bitcoin; there’s no rush!

From the weekly structure, last week's market movement was pretty typical. It spiked up to $78,300 on May 20-21, then quickly dropped to around $74,500 on May 22-23. This was Bitcoin's deepest correction since March and the lowest level in about two months. Then over the weekend, it gradually rebounded, entering a consolidation zone between $76,000 and $76,600.
In other words, the price center this week is slightly below last Friday's $77,000, actually sinking by less than $500.
Traders on Polymarket believe that BTC is likely to hold above $74,000 this week, with a 60% chance of closing above $76,000 by the weekend.
However, Enflux, a market maker in Singapore, told CoinDesk that buying pressure is still there, but no one has been adding to their positions, as the market waits for the next macro catalyst.
From a technical standpoint, if $76,000 continues to consolidate but fails to break through the $78,000 resistance with volume, the scenario of repeatedly testing the $74,500 support remains possible in the short term.
In the near term, the market will continue to struggle, so my fellow traders in the圈 can just sit back and watch.

Everyone's often glued to the internet, soaking up a lot of info. Each person has their own take, especially when it comes to comparing China and the West. Some pro-Japan folks are brainwashing everyone on the Chinese internet through various means.
When you come across this kind of news, be super cautious and listen to different viewpoints. You'll realize there are many angles to see things from.
Never let someone else’s ideology sway you; there's no place that's absolutely free. Western universities might not have gates, but they do have lecture halls and classrooms. Many of these schools aren't even in one independent area, they could be scattered all over the city.
Where are the gates? A lot of so-called educated elites, after being brainwashed by Western ideologies, think this means they’re unfree, that academia isn’t open, and even claim that having open gates is a reason for America's strength.
But we need to think critically about a question: if our academic achievements are so low, why do we become America's biggest competitor?
How did some national treasures come to be?
Alright, let’s dive into today’s topic.
Bitcoin is currently sitting around $76,900, down about 0.6% in the last 24 hours, with a trading range of just over $1,000—narrow enough to make you drowsy.
Ethereum is also sliding down to below $2,100, with SOL and XRP taking heavier hits; the overall market is lacking direction.
The market might be boring, but there are some undercurrents brewing beneath.

Saylor locks in 843,738 BTC, still holding onto the belief of buying the dip
As market sentiment approaches a state of panic, Saylor remains the biggest bull.
As of May 24, the Strategy holds a total of 843,738 BTC, valued at approximately $64.45 billion, with an average cost of around $75,701.
In the recent buy on May 18, Saylor invested about $2.01 billion to purchase approximately 25,000 BTC at an average price of $80,985.
This total holding now accounts for over 4% of the global Bitcoin supply.
JPMorgan predicts that the Strategy's total accumulation for the year could reach $30 billion, while TD Cowen raises its target price to $400.
It's worth noting that Saylor has been buying all the way from $11,000 in 2020 to now. He faced countless doubts of 'the bull is gone' along the way. Every buying point seemed like a top at the time, but in the long run, the strategy of dollar-cost averaging and holding strong has proven itself.
This belief is something all members of the community should seriously consider.
Many in the community feel lost; after Saylor entered at $80,985, he still smiles.
What are you anxious about at your $65,000 cost?
When Bitcoin dropped to $74,100, you were scared. When oil prices fell from $110 to $94, you were confused.
When the CLARITY bill was advancing, you were still on the sidelines.
This reflects the crypto market’s mirror effect; what drives prices is always the resonance of differing expectations, not what you already know.
Geopolitical risks have mostly been mitigated; only the position of Powell remains, which is being recalibrated. Don’t dump your cheapest positions before the direction is clear.
U.S.-Iran negotiations won’t be stuck forever, U.S. Treasury yields won’t stay above 5% indefinitely, and ETFs won’t always be flowing out.
The FOMC meeting in three weeks will provide the first complete policy direction of the Powell era. Until then, maintaining your positions is the best chip to combat uncertainty.
Hold on, patiently wait for the macro fog to fully clear.
The above is a personal investment analysis and does not constitute investment advice. The market carries risks; decisions should be made cautiously.

Keep it up, crypto folks,
Welcome to follow along with us, as we navigate through the bull and bear cycles and gain insight into the crypto world.

Waller's Potential Threat to the Market
There's a seriously undervalued undercurrent in the market.
On May 22, Waller was officially sworn in as the 17th Chair of the Federal Reserve, personally overseen by Trump at the White House.
However, his monetary policy won't immediately flip just because of a mild inauguration speech.
The first FOMC meeting after Waller's appointment is set for June 16-17, and until then, the macro outlook will largely revolve around whether Waller tightens policy ahead of schedule.
The current pricing in the interest rate market isn't looking great, with the probability of at least a 25 basis point rate hike by December nearing 68%.
Earlier data showed that the market's pricing for rate cuts before December 2026 has basically dropped to zero.
One key statement from Waller's inauguration speech is worth dissecting word by word: "Congress has entrusted the Federal Reserve with the mission of ensuring price stability, with no excuses, hesitation, controversy, or pain. Inflation is the Federal Reserve's choice, and the Federal Reserve must be held accountable for it."
This statement means that the inflation above 3% over the past few years, in Waller's view, is a result of the Fed's decision-making errors, and after taking office, he aims to steadfastly execute the highest principle of stabilizing prices back to 2%.
The market is proactively pricing in the policy uncertainty brought about by this central bank power transition; it’s not that Waller himself has already changed anything.
This is precisely the market actively repricing its risk exposure.
From an asset allocation perspective, even if the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield falls back to around 5%, the risk-free return above 5% is still there. BlackRock's IBIT has seen net outflows for 6 consecutive days, and Jane Street has reduced its ETF holdings by about 70%—these are institutions reducing risk in light of the uncertainty surrounding Waller's policy direction, rather than completely liquidating.
There are still three weeks until the June FOMC meeting, and this period is the real vacuum for the market, with expectations of no dramatic surges or drops, just a consolidation pattern.
If there are no sudden macro shocks during this time, then the day three weeks from now when Waller provides a clear policy direction will be the most critical moment.

The rebound is due to a complete easing of geopolitical risk premiums. Over the past five days, the most significant change is the rapid decline in threats to navigation in the Strait of Hormuz that have persisted for weeks. On the evening of May 24, the US and Iran reached a principled understanding framework, with both sides coming to a consensus on core issues, now entering the final approval stage. Once the memorandum is signed, shipping in the Strait will fully resume within 30 days. The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson also confirmed that both sides have reached an agreement on most core issues, with final approvals expected in the coming days. Trump himself sent clear signals on May 25 regarding the smooth progress of negotiations, leading to an immediate crash in oil prices. During the Asian trading session on May 25, Brent crude's main contract saw a significant pullback from previous highs, dropping to $94.11 per barrel, over a 14% decline compared to earlier peaks above $110. WTI crude fell to $90.32 per barrel, with Brent's drop exceeding 8% at times and WTI dropping over 5%. On the 25th, WTI hit a low of $90.68 per barrel, and Brent fell to $97.22 per barrel, both shedding the geopolitical risk premium accumulated since the supply disruption in Hormuz in April. As oil prices plummeted, the 30-year US Treasury yield fell from around 5.19% to about 5.0%, while the 10-year dropped to approximately 4.55%. The shift from conflict to negotiation has stripped the war premiums accumulated since April from the pricing structure of oil and cryptocurrencies. This process not only directly reduced the urgency of macro tightening but also indirectly transmitted to a decline in Bitcoin prices, easing inflation expectations marginally, and causing a drop in Treasury yields, thereby repairing risk sentiment. Bitcoin's bottom at 74,100 was discovered this way, and the weekend's rebound was pulled up accordingly.