defioasis

Polymarket Builders weekly trading volume exceeded $85 million, reaching a new high after two weeks

betmoar continues to hold a major position, but as more Builders emerge, the weekly market share has dropped to just above 40%

The stolen Polycule fell, while another platform focusing on Copy Trading, PolyCop, rose swiftly to fill its position, with a weekly trading volume exceeding $9.3 million, accounting for 11% of the market share

It is worth noting that the total number of Polymarket Builders has surpassed 100

Opinion's expenses reached a record high of $353,600, accumulating a total revenue of $11,800,000

Fun fact: On that day, Opinion's expenses intervened between Ethereum and BNB Chain. On the same day, Ethereum's expenses were 64.97 ETH (approximately $21,630), and BNB Chain's expenses were 453.98 BNB (approximately $430,000)

Currently, the valuation forecast for Opinion's TGE by Polymarket, Predict Fun, and Probable has risen to 72%-74% for the $1 billion tier, while Aspecta's pre-market valuation for Opinion Key is around $1.1 billion.

It may be stimulated by Kalshi's high growth, and the trading volume of IBKR's ForecastEx has gradually increased in recent months.

The trading volume of IBKR ForecastEx reached $199 million in December last year, and this month's trading volume has also exceeded $100 million, but there is still quite a distance to the election month in 2024.

Similarly, during the election month in 2024, the open interest was the highest, exceeding $300 million, and at one point surpassed Polymarket and Kalshi, but currently, it is only about $4 million.

Since August 2024, IBKR ForecastEx has accumulated over $10 million in fees, with a fee rate of about 1%, generating approximately $3 million in the past two months.

Also as a CFTC DCM market, unlike Kalshi, which dominates sports and retail, IBKR ForecastEx has basically no sports event predictions, seemingly intentionally avoiding regulatory issues, and is more focused on economic politics and institutions.

Apart from Opinion, the funds have already opened Probable

- The number of daily transactions is the most exaggerated, surpassing Opinion and accounting for slightly more than 50% of the BSC prediction market share

- Daily trading volume has soared to over $48 million, accounting for 22% of the BSC prediction market share

- The number of daily independent traders has reached a new high for 5 consecutive days, approaching 5,000, accounting for 18.6% of the BSC prediction market share

- There are two Questions with trading volumes exceeding $10 million, namely: Will SOL drop to $80 before January 31, 2026, and will the Federal Reserve's interest rates remain unchanged after the January 2026 meeting?

It is worth mentioning that, based on the day's trading volume and open interest, the Volume/OI ratio has exceeded 18, giving a bit of the Perp DEX flavor, and zero fees can indeed accelerate the volume.

Is it time to return to the Solana trenches?

The token creation numbers for Pump Fun and Bags App have reached a high point since August-September last year

Looking at the Volume/OI ratio, prediction markets generally remain below 1, and even lower, while Perp DEX can exceed 10 at times. If one interacts with prediction markets using the high-frequency opening and closing strategy typical of Perp DEX, it could lead to significant losses and little to no rewards.

Volume (7-day average) / OI ratio:
Opinion: 95.16%
Kalshi: 85.52%
Predict Fun: 42.18%
Polymarket: 33.61%

Opinion has the highest ratio, which I speculate is due to the current sprint phase before TGE. A notable indicator is that Opinion's weekly and monthly trading volume growth both exceed 30%, with weekly growth notably higher than the two newer platforms, Predict Fun and Probable.

Kalshi's characteristic is its focus on sports events. Trading volume for sports events often concentrates in just a few hours before and during games, resulting in more dynamic and explosive volume patterns, which leads to a relatively higher ratio compared to the static OI metric.

Taking the mature Polymarket as a benchmark, Predict Fun's ratio is slightly higher, which is reasonable for a platform in its early growth stage. For Polymarket, which has nearly zero fees, pure trading volume growth does not directly translate into revenue. Instead, real-world influence, brand value, and ecosystem expansion are more important long-term value drivers.

Real business competition

The liquidity of Predict Fun is widely distributed across prediction events on competitors' Opinion and Kalshi's token TGE timing and valuation forecasts

Additionally, it's worth noting that the probability of predicting Opinion's TGE before March 31 on Predict Fun reached 92.7%

A major player on Predict Fun named riandro has placed a total of approximately $665,000 in YES bets across four Opinion TGE time brackets before 3.31/6.30/9.30/12.30

BSC Prediction Market Cumulative Nominal Trading Volume Exceeds $15 Billion

Opinion Accounts for Over $14 Billion, Growing at an Incredible Pace in Less Than Three Months

Polymarket Builders Weekly Active Traders Exceed 6k for the First Time

Unlike betmoar, which dominates the Builders trading volume share, the user base is fragmented, with multiple different Builders having unique features that attract and retain users.

Currently, four Builders have累计 over 1,000 active traders: Polymtrade, Polycule, Based, and betmoar:

- Polymtrade leads in active traders, capturing approximately 30% of the weekly market share and being the first Builder to exceed 4,000 cumulative active traders.
- Based, with extensive frontend experience on Hyperliquid Builder, holds a share slightly above 10%.
- Polycule unfortunately suffered a theft and may struggle to recover.
- betmoar has the strongest user fund strength, with higher average bet amounts per user.
- Additionally, it's worth noting that Rainbow wallet users are converting quickly, with expected cumulative active traders to surpass 1,000 next week

BSC prediction market nominal trading volume exceeded $400 million for the third time in a single day, with Opinion accounting for 86.7% of the share; Predict Fun reached a new high of $37 million in nominal trading volume, while daily fee revenue set a record at $136,000

The open interest of the three BSC prediction markets continues to reach new highs, with a total scale of $150 million, still about one doubling short of Polymarket and Kalshi

Notably, after the Double Festival event ended, Opinion's trading users and transaction count experienced a sharp decline, but both have now started to rebound from their lows

Venus starts pushing the Probable prediction market, it seems the two have reached a cooperation, not sure if Probable will also introduce interest-bearing features

Another BSC prediction market, Predict Fun, offers interest-bearing positions by depositing funds into Venus – vUSDT

Currently, Predict Fun has deposited approximately $5.85 million (equivalent to 231 million vUSDT) into Venus, accounting for about 40% of its total position size

After the end of the Double Egg event, on the first full trading day, there was a certain decline in Opinion trading users, transaction count, and transaction fee contributions.

Compared to the last full trading day of the event (January 3):
- Trading users declined by 38.2%
- Transaction count declined by 52.6%
- Transaction fee contributions declined by 31.1%

However, from the perspective of holding volume, there was little change, with inflows and outflows remaining within a reasonable range, maintaining at around $115 million. This actually reflects the underlying fundamentals after the significant incentives have faded, indicating that Opinion's overall funding situation and core users remain quite stable.

Polymarket Builders' weekly trading volume reached a new high of $80 million, with a month-on-month growth of 50%

This is mainly attributed to the leading player betmoar, whose trading volume for the week reached $50 million, including two consecutive days with trading volumes exceeding $10 million

Currently, Polymarket Builders has 80 companies, but betmoar's position with approximately 60% market share remains difficult to shake, and its product strength is still unique.

The Opinion double holiday event is coming to an end.

Over 48,000 new user addresses started their first transactions during this event, accounting for more than 30% of the total Opinion user base.

At the same time, these new users made over 2.1 million transactions, accounting for 38.3% of the total number of transactions.

Let's see what the retention rate looks like after the event ends.

Every weekend I count the number of Polymarket Builders, and today I see it has exceeded 70, maintaining an increase of 10-20 new ones each week in recent weeks; at the same time, the number has also surpassed the Hyperliquid Builders as counted by Flowscan.

The increase in the number of Builders is gradually being reflected in the trading volume: Polymarket Builders' weekly trading volume has historically exceeded 50 million dollars for the first time.

Now the landscape of Builders is quite clear, betmoar firmly occupies half of the market; PolyTraderPro, Stand trade, and Polycule are competing for second place. Of course, the Polymarket Builders ecosystem is still in its early stages, and everyone has a chance. A new Builder named Preddy has set an example, already exceeding a weekly trading volume of 3 million dollars during the private phase, ranking fourth for the week.

Sometimes I wonder why Solana has not given birth to a reliable prediction market for so long.

As far as I remember, the prediction markets currently available on Solana include Jupiter Predict, which integrates with Kalshi for on-chain exploration, PMX Trade backed by AllianceDAO, and Melee, which has raised $3.5 million. However, the overall trading volume is very small, only around $10,000 to $20,000 daily, which is still not enough to match Polymarket's daily volume..

I don't know if the Solana community is still immersed in the Meme trenches, or if the Solana Foundation is too busy with DAT and not paying enough attention.

Of course, from another perspective, Solana's on-chain activity is quite good, and there is no local competition, which is indeed suitable for Kalshi to conduct on-chain activities. It's just that I wonder why there has been no news recently? I searched for Toly's tweets, and the last mention of "prediction" dates back to November 6, while "kalshi" has only been mentioned a couple of times in recent months..

Statistics of the ROI situation for major ICO/IDO/IEO Launchpads over the past year:

- Binance Wallet leads with a current ROI of 12.69x and an ATH ROI of 78.01x, proving that mastering liquidity means mastering everything.

- Echo is the most worthwhile non-CEX platform to participate in, with an ATH ROI exceeding 17x (although it has now been acquired by Coinbase).

- Buildpad's ATH ROI is nearly 10x, widely believed to have some resource linkage with Binance, making the probability of new projects reaching Binance relatively high.

- MetaDAO has emerged strongly since Q4, with a current ROI of 4.15x and an ATH ROI of 8.73x, performing well. After the decline of Solana Meme and the restrictions on Solana's coin listing channels, this type of ICM Launchpad is highly anticipated.

- Other situations: Gate Launchpad has the most new projects, but one must sell in a timely manner; OKX Wallet lacks long-term operations for new projects, although its ATH ROI is only second to Binance Wallet, the project supply is too limited; Coinlist has completely fallen from grace, with the lowest ATH ROI.

Overall, participating in new projects without greed and running in a timely manner will generally yield some profits, but if one continues to HODL, they may end up with nothing left. The average current ROI for 8/12 Launchpads is below 2, with 5 having current ROIs that have dropped below 1.

Christmas Points Event Day 1

The number of daily traders on Opinion reached 17,500, setting a record for the second highest in history, accounting for 23.2% of daily traders on Polymarket.

The number of daily transactions on Opinion reached 86,000, pushing the daily transaction count in the BSC prediction market to break the 100,000 mark for the first time.

However, the number of transactions is a significant area where competitors lag behind Polymarket and Kalshi, with the latter two recently exceeding one million transactions per day.

BSC predicted market trading volume second highest single day, with Opinion accounting for 97.6% market share.

The other two emerging platforms Predict Fun and Probable contributed $2.2 million each, splitting the remaining 2.4% share.

Upon closer inspection, Predict Fun's fees are not cheap, charging $450,000 over 5 days, essentially a ~2% take per transaction; Probable has zero fees; Opinion's overall rate is ~0.12%, cumulatively capturing over $5.7 million in fees.

After the Base app fully opened its registration, over 21,000 users surged in just these two days, accounting for more than 10% of the total user base.

As an important distribution channel for the Base web application, this super app that integrates social, trading, and exploration has now approached a total user count of 200,000.

However, the new users from the past two days have not yet been converted into trading users of the Base app, and the trading volume with the built-in Swap remains relatively limited.