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Midcap/Others

Any index will also be dependent on $BTC. If BTC makes new lows, so will the Others. If $BTC reverses and holds 66K-65K, most indexes will also break the trend. Most indexes will look the same, but I will use the Others index as an example of exactly what I am looking at right now. Basically, on HTF, we are in a range of volatility without any lower or higher confirmation. Buying spot here for long term investment is risky because you are gambling without a clear directional bias. There is a 50% chance that you will be right.

On the other hand, if $BTC makes new lows, the Others index will reach the 135B area, which to me would be a safer area to buy spot, with a better RR. If we don't go that low and don't bottom, then the safest thing for you to do is to look for a breakout of the 224B area, which is the high that Others recently reached. In this case, you will see a move similar to what I have drawn in the chart below: higher lows and higher highs strongly suggest a trend change and the midcaps start a new uptrend. Both options are safer than buying here without clear confirmation.

Before I saw the trend change, my assumption was that mid-cap coins were in a bear cycle. A trend change would signal a new bull cycle. Of course, being 50% correct is not too bad, but I am just suggesting other options that may be safer for you if you are looking for long-term spot investment. In the end, all I can do is discuss all possible scenarios and the risks involved, and you need to decide which scenario to follow.

Total 3: HTF Analysis - Update

Total 3 also confirmed lower highs after rejection on the diagonal trendline, which is what I suspected yesterday. Very similar pattern to other indices. If it can make higher lows here or at least in the 546B area, then we can consider a change in trend. Otherwise, I would also be eyeing a bear range high, as shown in the chart below.

For new mid/long term spot investing, I only have two HTF triggers, a bear range high or a trend change, which is a breakout of the diagonal trendline. Anything else is more suitable for scalping and swing trading, but not for the long term. Remember, these are very HTF plans, so they should not confuse you when trading on LTF.

Also remember that I am neither bearish nor bullish. I want to focus entirely on the data and not build a strong bias in any direction.

Midcap/Others: HTF Analysis

Others is forming a bearish pattern on the HTF. As has been said multiple times, it has been making lower highs and lower lows since March 2024.

I said that for the trend to change, it would need to see at least higher highs, but that has not happened as the index is blocked at 224B. Over the past few months, every time the index has made a lower high, it has dropped 40% in the following weeks. This is of course also influenced by the $BTC PA.

If the index cannot make a higher low here or at least in the 180B area, I think it is reasonable to assume that it will make lower lows again and reach the area I discussed between 140B and 130B, which would be the high of the bearish interval. This would also be a 40% drop from the recent highs. Of course it would also take another#BTClow to make for that to happen. That would be the area where I would allocate all my capital to the market.

Not a certainty that it will happen, but certainly a possibility that I will monitor over the coming months. If we don't want this idea to unfold with a higher probability, then there is a big level here that needs to hold for others. Holding 192B on the HTF, marking a local bottom, the possibility of a trend change can be discussed from here.

On the other hand, I still believe it would be safer to allocate more funds once the trend changes. For example, it would be a flip of the 240B area, or at least a flip of the recent high of 224B.

This is probably one of the most controlled sell-offs I have ever seen

Continuously going lower and higher, most of the time not even able to make a 1% bounce.

When this happens, we always like to mention things like stairs going up, elevators going down. Sadly, when it is just slowly going down, it usually can't take the elevator back up.

There is no edge or insight in this price action. Better to let it play out ​​​

$BTC

Total 3: HTF Analysis

The HTF charts for Total 2 and Others were discussed earlier to get a better idea of ​​where the altcoins stand on the market right now. As explained, neither Total 2 nor Others have shown signs of a trend change so far, which is why I advise against entering new positions simply out of fear of missing out. This is also part of the reason why I took profits.

Looking at Total 3, we can see that it got rejected right at the diagonal trendline, which means that it has not been able to break the HTF downtrend. It has been making lower lows and lower highs since April, with 623B being the latest local high. Right now, my key LTF levels for Total 3 are 579B and 545B. Holding the 579B area and establishing it as a local bottom would be positive for the altcoin as it would suggest a possible change in trend. This would be the most bullish option at this point.

Going forward, my two triggers for the altcoin would be a pullback to the suggested area or a trendline flip. Ultimately, only if Total 3 breaks this downtrend will altcoins see significant movement. This of course also depends on BTC. If BTC manages to hold the range lows at 62K-60K, I think Total 3 lows will be higher. Lose the range lows and I think a lower low is likely, confirming the downtrend. If you zoom out on the chart, you'll see that the chart is very simple.

AI Token has been showing quite a bit of strength over the past few days. AI has been the strongest sector over the past week for the following reasons:

- Others dominance is finally showing strength.
- NVDA stock has been performing well since the August 2nd crash.
- Nvidia report is coming out on August 28th and is expected to be a positive report.
- Apple event is coming up on September 10th and there are rumors that ChatGPT will be integrated into Apple products.

It’s nice to see spot positions like #TAO and #FET finally moving. That being said, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some outflows from AI Token on the day of or after Nvidia earnings. This doesn’t necessarily mean AI Tokens will plummet, it just means they could lose some relative strength to other narratives, either up or down. This is something to consider if you’re trading on LTF.

Earnings are coming out Wednesday evening. Revenue expectations for the previous quarter were $28.71 billion, more than $4 billion higher than the previous quarter. Nvidia's strong performance also drove the surge in AI tokens. Anything equal to or above that value would be considered NVIDIA's excess gains, while anything below that value would be considered unrealized gains. However, I don't think it matters whether Nvidia has excess gains or not, as funds can rotate regardless of the results.

Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) has been released from prison

CZ has reportedly been transferred to a "halfway house" and is expected to be fully released in September. This suggests that he is gradually regaining his freedom, but the specific details of any conditions or legal provisions related to his release have not yet been fully disclosed.

#IO If people want to use IO GPU, they need IO staking
This may bring a "shock" to the supply
So wait for a recovery or lower price to enter

#今日市场观点

Mediumcap/OTHERS

Mediumcap is finally showing some relative strength against high market cap coins after its dominance index flipped the 9.4% area. I have been watching the 9.4% level for weeks.
Looking ahead, OTHERS is approaching the 212B area, which is a critical area to monitor. According to OTHERS’ plan, this is the area that needs to flip in order to potentially change the trend. Rejecting from this area, Mediumcap will only make one more low, which is not so bullish from a macro perspective. If you bought at the August 2 low, this is a big target area for medium-term trading. Flipping this level, we can retest the 212B area and potentially look for higher highs, which would indicate a change in trend and start a bullish cycle for Mediumcap.
Unless it flips, buying more medium- to long-term spot below the 212B resistance is risky. Scalping is possible on LTF, though.

#今日市场观点
Price action continues to be volatile and quick profit taking remains a priority for day traders. The reason for the price volatility is the low volume and tight trading range that the market has been in over the past few weeks. BTC has reached its previous range low but has once again failed to reclaim that area which remains worrisome to me, although it is not surprising given the low volume in the market.

Going forward, a clear flip in the 61800 area is key to moving higher. If you want to avoid intraday price action, keep an eye on key levels. $BTC The key levels for BTC will be around 61800 and around 57600. The more we fail to reclaim higher highs, the more I believe BTC will move lower in the coming weeks. I would try to avoid initiating new long positions as we approach range highs or short positions as we approach range lows. Moving above the upper band or below the lower band could lead to impulsive moves after which you can position accordingly.

As far as altcoins are concerned, mid-cap coins are starting to see some nice relative gains after a few months. There are some outliers that have performed exceptionally well in this volatility, such as AVAX or AAVE. Dominance has increased over the past few hours, which is also reflected in the price action of some altcoins. Dominance is at its highest level since the market crash on August 2, which is a good sign for mid-cap coin holders.

Refer to the order pushed by the community woo, and do a long order again, the risk is relatively high
I have closed the long order before, but I didn’t open a short position because I was playing games. . . .

Looking at the weakness in the USD Index and the stock market (ES is only 1.3% below new highs) I feel like this picture is similar to the one from mid-May this year
The initial buyback in stocks is where BTC lagged badly, but once stocks approached its previous all-time highs, it started to catch up strongly
In my opinion, this makes the rest of August more bullish for market risk than I initially expected, as it is still summer and August has not been a good month for markets
So if I had to summarize my thoughts on the intraday and HTFIntraday: Caution below the weekly line, LTF's flow looks volatile and unable to attract late-stage bulls.
HTF: Bullish for the rest of August

#今日市场观点
61.4 is the major weekly level
Looking for signs of LTF spot distribution
OI has increased by over 6% since the 60k rally (this may include top shorts, but looking at perps cvd and OI and funding moving back above positive as price slowly rises leads me to believe there was a lot of late longs being caught since the morning, and more shorts) ​​​

All the take-profit orders I placed while sleeping have been executed. Let’s see if it can hold. If not, go short.

Time to go to bed, XDM. Today's Monday range is like this, very boring trend
I don't plan to move my current position. I see that several traders in the community feel that it will be boring before September, and the volatility will be very small.
I asked for a day off from Mr. Cu and fought on Black Myth!

Mid-cap coins/Others

My long-term holdings remain the same regardless of my plans for the next few weeks. However, I will only increase my holdings if I reach the level of Others, which has been discussed several times so far. Given the weak dominance of mid-cap coins, I do not want to increase my holdings right now. If the highlighted scenarios come to fruition, I would like to buy more mid-cap coins in one of the two areas shown in the green box below. If my plan does not work, I will use my current spot holdings and will look to increase my holdings when I see a trend change, as shown in scenario 1 in the figure. Very simple plan. BTC, ETH and SOL purchases are not part of this plan. If I get the trigger, I plan to increase the following holdings:

$TAO : Current main AI holdings. Good token economics and halving cycle.

$PEPE : Main holdings ETH and meme. Easy and safe to play meme.

BEAM: The biggest game. I think it will become one of the top mid-cap coins in the future.
$INJ : L1 beta after SOL.

I don’t want to focus on too many tokens. I’d rather build large positions for 3-4 tokens than have to manage multiple positions. No plans to add any low market cap or on-chain tokens in the near term. There may be a rotation at some point once mid-cap coins gain more strength, but I don’t see much point in adding high risk tokens in a risk-off environment.

DXY x BTC

A weaker USD due to the expectations of rate cuts in the coming months could also be a positive catalyst for the crypto market. The reason why I didn’t list it in the first two articles is that a weak USD right now doesn’t necessarily mean it will be a catalyst for the crypto market given the macroeconomic uncertainty.

Of course, a break below the 102.4 level is quite bullish as it means that the market could be turning more risk-on and money is moving to other assets. However, if recession fears increase in the coming weeks, the USD will regain strength. When the US economy faces a recession or investors are concerned that a recession might occur, the demand for the USD increases.

Since we don’t know what the macroeconomic developments will look like in the coming months, we can’t assume that the USD’s current PA will be positive. However, if the macroeconomic data remains good, a weak USD will be a positive for risk assets. We still need to confirm if the USD breaks below the diagonal line shown in the chart below, but it is definitely still weak.