The market scenario that I currently consider the most likely:

1. Bitcoin falls to 85-90k
2. Altcoins drop in panic by 15-20% alongside
3. Everything is bought back within 1-3 days
4. Bitcoin consolidates around 100-102k and stays there until mid-January
5. With a stable Bitcoin, altcoins start to gradually recover (by 3-10% per day)
6. After January 20, a bubble begins to inflate, triggered by Trump's team
7. Bitcoin rises to 145k by May. Altcoins give 10-20% per day against this backdrop
8. Mid-May. A series of sharp declines of 20-30% and rises of 10-15%. A bear market begins
9. Sharp declines of 30-50% occur without recovery
10. The market enters a flat phase

Liquidation map for BTC. Blue lines - sets of positions with x25 leverage, yellow with x50. It's scary to see where Bitcoin needs to go to liquidate them. I would even be glad if many short sellers join now - at least there will be some reason to pull Bitcoin up.

Out of curiosity, I checked the wallets of exchanges. I highlighted several coins that have a balance of at least $100 million. This is not a recommendation to buy; such coins can be very strong or crash by tens of percent in a couple of minutes because they are essentially concentrated in the hands of 10-20 large holders. I'm just posting this to save it here and for general knowledge)

FET
LAI
LINK
ENA
OP
POL
PEPE
ARB
Cake
SHIB
LDO
AAVE
MKR

Alta has slightly started to recover, giving about +10% in the last 3 hours. One wants to believe that it has started to reverse. But there is still a chance to dip to the highs of mid-November. And from there, it could reverse, as breaking those levels in a bullish trend would be something bordering on the fantastic.

Recently discovered St. John's Wort for myself. Such a cool herb, you can't imagine) two teaspoons with boiling water and suddenly I don't care about anything at all. Relevant right now 🧘‍♂️

How about a light brainstorming session? Ask about any coin, and I'll tell you where its bottom is from which we can bounce. If you think I'm wrong - correct me.

Well, here we are back at the moment when we were slightly pricked on December 9) only now not as a light jab, but as a slow scalping) I give a 100% guarantee that we will return to previous prices in mid-January, and before that we might go down another 20% (or even 30%, but with a jab like on December 9). Right now, you can invest 25% of the deposit (from the 50% I mentioned to leave for re-purchasing), and allocate the remaining 25% to limit orders at minus 20-30%. And most importantly - completely forget about the market during this time, promise yourself to check the deposit only on January 20-25 😁

Until December 23-24, we will gradually decline in altcoins. Right now, there are many expectations regarding news, everyone is being cautious. The market consists of hodlers and traders who are working with a maximum of a quarter of their deposits. Bitcoin is also pulling a lot of attention. However, after that, any good news could trigger the alt season.

If we rise above 12,000 on the altcoin by December 16, then we just need to buckle up, because it will be a rocket with a warp drive 😄 And if we don't make it, we'll fly down to around 10,000 or a bit lower for a couple of days on December 10 (p.s. this is currently about altcoins with a 'herd instinct', it doesn't apply to link, sui, or xrp, who knows about them)

If we focus on the total cap of altcoins from the last alt season, we are currently at this little red candle. Plus or minus by date (here December 14-21), but always in December. The history has repeated exactly twice already. The question is whether it will repeat for the third time.

Guys, what to do now? I knew that crypto is a scam, I don't understand why I got involved. I'm at a loss, it's terrible!

Alts are now at a standstill waiting for further signals from Bitcoin. If it closes above 102k today, I will be very optimistic, but if it rolls back to 97-99k, then the altcoin sell-off will begin again. Be prepared for both scenarios.

I'm not a conspiracy theorist, but everything is going so smoothly) It's clear that they needed to shake out the longs, but now there are so many passengers almost riding for free in this rocket that it's a bit scary) I don't rule out that they might give another pullback. I've already prepared for this case (in the previous post). Well, if this is just my paranoia, then that's fine too.

Will there be a second shakeout?

All the "experts" have different opinions and their general idea is "maybe it will, maybe it won't" 🫶

In theory, a second bottom as a gift is a common story. On the other hand, what difference does it make if we'll still reach last week's positions anyway

I think right now it's not the analytics that's important, but the right MM. It's important to leave at least 50% of the deposit in stables. Place limit orders at minus 10-30% of current prices, and leave the current purchase as is. Or buy more if you sold yesterday on emotions (I know some people 😅). Place a sale of 50% of the deposit with limit orders at prices above 20-30% of current prices

I think this is the most organized approach so that both growth and fall are an advantage for us

Have a nice day everyone ✌️

I decided to take advantage of the correction and slightly restructured my portfolio

I sold something because I consider it overheated, and bought something else

I posted previous portfolios in earlier posts

Current portfolio:

1. wif
2. sui
3. not
4. 1inch
5. ton
6. bnb
7. twt
8. link
9. pepe

What the hell is diversification for if all altcoins repeat each other one for one 🫠

If you bought the bottom of altcoins - congratulations 🥳

Is this the bottom?

1INCH works all the limits just like clockwork) I don't know how long this will last, but so far it's beautiful. By the way, on the portfolio I sold (which I hurried with), I have already lost 45%... It's a shame, but I have almost recovered everything on trading (although I am a supporter of the buy&hold strategy, but here it's a different case - hamster greed 🥴😄). When selling, I always leave 20% (during trading) in the market so as not to "fob" too much later if it takes off further, and if it starts to fall, then the limits on averaging work. In short, productive days (although it would have been more productive not to sell the portfolio at all a couple of weeks ago, but what can you do now 🫡). The same story with ADA and NOT, but I trade less on them. That's how things are in general. What about you?)

I'm indulging in trading, gathered a combo in the moment) How to understand this 🫡

1INCH someone is gradually pumping, trying not to get caught, but sometimes slipping occurs. It's especially noticeable on the 15-minute charts. It could easily roll up to $1 in the near future. Took a little 🤓