-ETH sub 3k before the launch of the spot ETF's feels like a steal. I thought $3100 was good, but $2800?! Mispricing IMO. -SOL relative strength is notable and it is the market showing its hand on what to own when the ship turns around. -Bitmex bids on BTC tell me we are likely close to a local bottom before a bounce/range. -Altcoin OI has been decimated. Perp funding is quite negative. Alts are down over 60% across the board; effectively having a full blown cycle at this point. Pure carnage in the altcoin sector. Have to imagine a bottoming range isn't far out.
Mind your leverage and don't blow up before conditions become favorable once more. Prices trade much higher into years end.
FET is one of the premier AI plays for crypto. With price having been down nearly 70% from the wick high's; this one feels like a no-brainer given the market structure and AI narrative.
Weekly momentum oscillators have gotten a full on reset and price looks primed for higher.
Bitcoin's trajectory is right on schedule when viewed through the correct lens.
Here are a few interesting observations:
By the end of 2024, the Power Law Support (historical floor) will surpass MicroStrategy's current cost basis per BTC.
By the end of 2026, it will be above the current #BTC price.
If the 4-year cycle holds, the next bear market bottom based on the Power Law Support could be between $67,000 and $74,000 around September 2026 to January 2027.
Recent range-bound price action may have been essential for reinforcing the bottom support for the next bear market, aligning with Bitcoin's higher timeframe growth patterns.
Bull case for up and coming L1's is pretty straight forward:
Replacing ADA, DOT, and AVAX which have had 10b or higher marketcaps for an extended period of time.
Incumbents (such as those mentioned prior) are likely to get unseated this cycle by trendy new L1's with powerhouses behind them alongside better tech, better communities, and better marketing.
I suspect the top 10-20 spots will look very different in a few months time.
Looking at it from this lens, several alts have already been deep into bear market territory since March; with several alts down over 40-60% from the wick high to the wick low.
I suppose part of the distortion around sentiment stems from just how much overthrow to the downside there was after the collapse of FTX.
People that bought coins in the months after the FTX collapse are still up multiples; even with a lot of the big name alts being down 40-60% from the March highs.
Very weird cycle so far. Norms from prior cycles have simply not worked very well.
Looking at it from this lens, several alts have already been deep into bear market territory since March; with several alts down over 40-60% from the wick high to the wick low.
I suppose part of the distortion around sentiment stems from just how much overthrow to the downside there was after the collapse of FTX.
People that bought coins in the months after the FTX collapse are still up multiples; even with a lot of the big name alts being down 40-60% from the March highs.
Very weird cycle so far. Norms from prior cycles have simply not worked very well.
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