The altcoin market has reached its target, let's catch the reversals
The market remains quite dull for now, but we are approaching the end of a stable decline and opportunities for growth in altcoins, I think it’s time for another review. First of all, I want to note that there are not enough arguments yet for a move to 75k for Bitcoin, which I recommend keeping in mind since the end of last year for understanding the medium-term market prospects and the depth of the altcoin market.
Increase in purchases against the backdrop of the reversal of monthly candles to bullish
Yesterday, weakly positive statistics for the dollar were released, which has allowed the smooth bullish trend of the second half of the week to continue, increasing the likelihood of a reversal of monthly candles to bullish for many coins, similar to Bitcoin. If the increase in purchases continues over the weekend, one can expect a rise to 2500 for Ethereum with an attempt to test 2750. If this current week closes bullish and above 2500, further purchases are likely on Monday, continuing the momentum of this week; however, one should prepare for a new wave of sales to address the bearish signals left yesterday.
Today, determining the future direction of the market
Today we have passed the middle of the month, I want to consider the market situation. First of all, it is worth noting that the second half of the month on Ethereum opened below 3250, which gives a signal for new attempts to break through 3000. That is, until the end of the month, the prevalence of sales on altcoins remains. Due to this market situation today - tomorrow there is a high probability of a new impulse to 2900. Yesterday's wave of growth is only a retest of the last resistance and an opportunity for buyers to exit. Today, statistics for the USA will play an important role. With negative data, there will be an opportunity to hold 3250 until the end of the week, compensate for sales and go above 3500. With strong statistics, sales will probably be extremely aggressive with a continuation in the new week.
Today, another week of the new year ends and there is an opportunity for purchases. The crypto market, as I expected, began to level out under the growing dollar and the falling currency market. Stable sales began from the retest of 100k on Bitcoin. However, I emphasized the rather positive opening of the year, especially on Ethereum, which will most likely lead to buyouts of large bearish candles. At the moment, there is a high probability of a buyout of the current weekly candle on a retest of its opening level.
The first week of the new year is coming to an end, and I want to consider the market situation. The year for Ethereum and Bitcoin opened in the flat zones of 90-95k and 3250-3500. Thanks to this, the new annual candle is swinging quite calmly. However, in my opinion, this calmness is deceptive. The current wave of purchases is so far only a retest of the key level of 100k for Bitcoin, from where there is a high probability of a bear attack. For many altcoins that have shown growth by today, this is also only a retest of the last resistance.
I would like to remind you that at the start of a new annual candle, the probability of a market drawdown prevails, which is why I recommended reducing positions on Sunday in preparation for the change of year this week. For Bitcoin, there are unfulfilled targets up to 75k, which can be fulfilled in the near future. The year opened below 95k, which gives a signal for the prevalence of sales. Opening above 90k is a positive signal that will smooth out the pace of sales and maintain the probability of maintaining a flat in the range of 85-115k, but positive factors in the form of a falling dollar or rising oil will probably be needed to continue growth. If they are absent, the market will continue to slide.
Tonight, with a continuation tomorrow, there is a high probability of a second wave of sales at the reversal of weekly candles for coins into bearish, which I emphasized on Tuesday. Tomorrow, from the second half of the day, the probability of a new wave of purchases with local peaks for coins over the weekend prevails. However, on Sunday, it is advisable to carefully weigh money management and reduce positions in anticipation of the year change next week. On Sunday and Monday, there is a high likelihood of sharp sales on a pullback on the annual candle with a continuation into the new year, which may lead to prolonged declines.
Active purchases on alts continue today, with a target, like ether, of retesting the opening level of last week. This level is resistance until ether goes above 3750-4000 and then there is a possibility of a reversal of the current weekly candlestick to bearish. Attempts to reversal with active sales can be expected tomorrow and on Friday.
Before the start of a new week, let's consider the market position and the prospects for the new weekly candle. After an aggressive continuation of sales within the annual pullback, as expected, Ethereum is attempting a reversal, aiming for a retest of 4000 at least and a probable consolidation above. Today - tomorrow, the likelihood of a new impulse of sales at 3150-250 remains, with a continuation of growth from the second bottom. From 3750 and 4000, aggressive bounces can be expected due to the low opening of the week and the ongoing probability of transitioning to stable sales from the retest of 4000. The outgoing statistics and dynamics of the currency market will have a significant impact.
Unfortunately, against the background of the forecast for the further dynamics of the US interest rate and strong GDP data, we did not see a reversal of the weekly candles since Wednesday and the market headed for a retest of 3000-3100, which I have been indicating for the past few weeks, this week, and not next week. The target range was reached today, then there is a high probability of a new attempt to reverse the weekly candles for individual alts, in connection with which you can add to the coins. In an optimistic scenario, the pullback for the current week will turn into growth for the new weekly candle and Ethereum will return to the bullish trend with consolidation above 4000. In a less volatile scenario, growth attempts over the weekend will be extinguished with the week closing below 3250. In this case, in the new week you can only count on a retest of 3750-3900, from where sales will continue. In both scenarios, until the end of the month, there is still a possibility for an attempt to reverse the monthly candle for alts. For Bitcoin, the main support this week is the 89-95k range. The move to 75k is still relevant, but the likelihood of working out this target closer to the end of the year or in January prevails.
Today another delisting announcement was made, in connection with which I warned against working with coins of the monitoring tag in the first half of the week. Now the coins that were not included in the announcement are becoming interesting. First of all, this is VITE, which is the most oversold at the moment. Last week, a signal was left for a further re-high and a probable test of the key level of 0.025, opening the way to 0.035-50. Considering the assignment of the monitoring tag, I do not think that the price will easily consolidate above this level, despite the strong signal for a retest near 0.035.
Against the backdrop of maintaining purchases this week, there is a fairly high probability of a new high for VIB, which has already given 6 waves of 25-70% over the last two months. Attempting to grow against the established bearish trend on the monthly chart from most levels results in technical pullbacks to the base of the previous figure, providing new opportunities for scalping while the token remains in a fairly oversold position with low risk of drawdown. For now, the goal in a calm market is to continue the reversal of the annual candle with an attempt to test the range of 0.15-25.
Today we have passed the middle of the month, I want to consider the prospects for the end of the year. The second half of the month opened positively for Ether above 3750 and 3850, which gives signals to exit above 4000 with the goal of testing the range of 4250-4500. For altcoins, this is a positive signal, in connection with which we saw new growth impulses for coins for the upcoming continuation of the trend. Bitcoin opened the second half of the month above 100k, which reduces the likelihood of a retest of 75-85k in the near future. However, opening below 102.5 gives a signal for a flat around 100k with attempts to go lower. With such a picture, a move to test 110-115k is likely with a further return to 100k by the end of the year, which will also lead to a rollback in Ether, even taking into account the positive signals.
As of today, the market has consolidated in anticipation of reaching the middle of the month and determining the direction for the end of the year. The decision regarding the U.S. interest rate may have a significant impact. However, there remains the possibility for growth of individual coins that have technical signals. TROY is showing good performance, aiming to break through 0.0075. In this article, I want to consider OG, which from the second bottom at the key support of $5 can give a trend and catch up with TROY in dynamics. If it successfully breaks above the previously formed trend line, the nearest target will be to test the range of 7.5-9. With a successful opening in the second half of the month above 7.5, one can expect a trend consolidation and further higher highs. There remains pressure from unfulfilled bearish targets at 3000-3100 for Ethereum and 75-85k for Bitcoin, which means that the new wave of sales at the weekly change may be deeper, with buying back already after the decision on the U.S. interest rate, in case of dollar weakening. In this negative scenario, OG may test 3.5-4$ where one could make an addition, as was done with TROY. In the medium term, both TROY and OG are decent instruments with potential.
Against the backdrop of maintaining purchases in the first half of the month, in addition to VIB, I want to draw attention to TROY, which showed a much more confident dynamic. In the last impulse, a clear signal was left to break through the level of 0.0075, which gives a signal to move up to 0.0125-150 in perspective. At the moment, the overtrading on the daily chart has ended with successful extinguishing of further sales. There is a high probability of an attempt to consolidate above 0.0075 by the middle of the month, which would allow to extinguish sales until the end of the year regardless of market dynamics. In a negative market and a reversal of BTC to 75-85k, one can expect at least a retest of 0.0075 for TROY, which would already provide 50%+ profit. The main support at the moment is the range of 0.0025-35, from both boundaries of which additional purchases can be made besides the main position.
Today, the market continues to work according to the planned scenario. However, a rather negative factor is the lack of work on the bearish signal for a rollback of BTC to 75-85k and ETH to 3000-3100. These targets will continue to put pressure on the market and increase the likelihood of sales in the second half of the month for a reversal of the current monthly candle into a bearish one. At the moment, 105k is a strong resistance for Bitcoin, above which we may not go this year.
Today, on the brink of changing the monthly candle, I want to once again consider the market situation and prospects for the coming week. The price this week has once again worked out according to the forecast for a local breakout and test of 3750. Moving forward as planned towards the change of the month, the probability of consolidation around the key level of 3500 predominates, which determines the direction towards 5000 or 2500 in the case of consolidation below it. I think the new month will open above 3500 due to the positive opening of the half-year, quarter, and second half of the quarter, which signal support for purchases. Today, there remains the likelihood of breaking 3750 with an attempt to close the month above, but with lesser probability, as this week the attempt to retest 3000-3100 was bought back, and this target remains for the new month, which puts pressure on the market.
Today GFT reached the planned take profits despite the upcoming delisting, confirming the strength of the project and the technical goals I outlined. Congratulations to those who were not afraid to enter again during the exit pump, making a large profit. From the target range of 0.031-35, there is a prevailing probability of a lower low. It is possible to try selling on exchanges that have such an opportunity for this asset.
New opportunity for purchases after the current correction
After today's delisting, trust in coins with the monitoring tag and Binance's policy has been completely lost. Strong projects that showed decent trading dynamics, such as GFTIRISREN, are being removed from trading just to create a forced correction in each group of altcoins. From now on, I will trade all coins with the monitoring tag with equal caution, regardless of the strength of the project. I will only take such instruments into regular work strictly after the next delisting announcement and until a week after the actual delisting of the announced coins. After a week post-delisting, I will work with these instruments strictly from the second half of the week, as the overwhelming majority of announcements were in the first half. Coins with the monitoring tag still remain an interesting tool to work with, providing sharp and large growth impulses of up to 70-100%, like PROSOAXVITEAKRO, while spending most of the time in an oversold position, reducing the risk of further drawdown during market pullbacks. However, I recommend working with these instruments with sufficient experience and adhering to the protective measures I outlined.