I've collected opinions from top influencers to answer these questions
BTC crash, U.S. sales, Bitcoin's super cycle and more
Full analysis + $BTC forecasts 👇🧵

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On the evening of July 29, 2024, Bitcoin briefly broke through the $70,000 level
However, it soon entered a correction phase, dropping more than 6%, resulting in a price plunge to $66,000

To begin, let’s discuss how Bitcoin managed to reach the $70,000 mark
Ryan Lee, the chief analyst at Bitget Research, identified three primary reasons for this milestone:
1. Donald Trump’s speech at the Bitcoin 2024 crypto conference
2. Expectations of stock market growth and the Federal Reserve’s potential move towards lowering the key interest rate
3. Increased investor interest in high-risk assets, such as cryptocurrencies

Why BTC couldn't hold at $70,000
The primary reason was news that the U.S. government began moving its BTC to different wallets
Many believe the U.S. might start selling its Bitcoin
If this happens, it would create market pressure similar to what occurred with Germany

The total value of all BTC owned by the U.S. is estimated at $12 billion
However, recent transactions involved only $2 billion
Interestingly, during the crypto conference, Trump promised not to sell government-owned Bitcoins

It’s worth noting that the threat is very real
In Germany's case, the market reacted more to the news about potential sales than the actual sales themselves
However, the U.S. holds an amount four times larger, nearly 1% of the total supply

Will $BTC Resume its Growth?
Many in the crypto community believe that news of potential Bitcoin sales by the U.S. government is the last hurdle for BTC's growth
Here are $BTC forecasts from influencers 👇
Charles Edwards, the founder of the investment fund "Capriole Fund," outlined a comprehensive list of positive factors driving the growth of BTC
Tweet:

DrProfitCrypto
believes that Bitcoin's next target could be the $86,000 level
According to him, $BTC is on the verge of entering a cycle that will trigger significant growth
Tweet:

StockmoneyL
is also confident in Bitcoin's growth
He even wrote an excellent thread listing 10 reasons for Bitcoin's rise
I highly recommend reading it:

2. ETF Game - Part 1
Bitcoin ETF inflows are robust, and their long-term impact on $BTC is being underestimated at this point. With over $1 billion in inflows this month, ETFs provide a strong, ongoing demand that isn't fading anytime soon. This is game changing and the full demand is not there yet.

2. ETF Game - Part 2
At the #Bitcoin2024 in Nashville, Blackrock said the big money hasn’t arrived yet, “they haven’t turned it on yet, they are expediting the process”👀

2. ETF Game - Part 3
And other ETF crypto assets will also drive further adoption and pave the wave #Bitcoin and the bull run.

3. US elections in November
The likelyhood, that Trump will win is not to bad and his re-election will heavily push the markets including crypto. He is pro-crypto and Trump is speaking at the #Bitcoin2024 in Nashville.

4. Growing confidence of a Fed rate cut in September
Current US data give confidence that inflation is heading to 2% and a ‘soft landing’ should be possible. And the market is already anticipating those rate cuts

5. Stock-to-Flow
credits to
@100trillionUSD ♥️
The S2F model predicts Bitcoin's price by calculating the stock-to-flow ratio, which divides the current stock of Bitcoin by the annual flow. This might be the most cited and referenced price prediction for #Bitcoin. Similarly, the price prediction for the current cycle is very high (roughly over $300k in 2025), but it remains valid until proven otherwise.

6. The Global Liquidity Cycle
The cut rates in the US not only influence the available money pool but also affect other countries, such as China and the European Union. According to the extrapolated data, the Global Liquidity Cycle should next peak around September 2025, following its December 2022 trough. This fits PERFECT for the the anticipated #Bitcoin peak.

7. Bitcoin cylce repeat
(1) - All time high
(2) - Correction and Bear market rally
(3) - Bear market
(4) - Bear market bottom
(5) - Uptrend and consolidation
(8) - New All time high
These time zones are based on the Fibonacci sequence, a mathematical series where each number is the sum of the two preceding ones (e.g., 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, ...).
In trading, Fibonacci time zones are created by segmenting the vertical price movement (from a notable low to a notable high) into several equal parts using Fibonacci ratios. Commonly used ratios include 1, 1.618, 2.618, 4.236, and others. Each ratio represents a distinct time zone.

8. Crypto Adoption
Perhaps the strongest argument for the current cylce. So far, the real use case for crypto for the masses is missing. But no one other than
@elonmusk
might bring the first crypto-based payment system with this app
@X💸

9. #Bitcoin network
The Bitcoin network has now processed $110 trillion in transaction volume in its lifetime. The Lightning network is high-performance and ready for the future. source: http://blockstream.com

10. Technical analysis
You cannot predict the future by looking in the rear-view mirror? Yes we can. Use our Stockmoney formula🦎
y = 923.49 x^2 - 4×10^6 x + 4×10^9k
Similarly, this model is different from the S2F model (reason 5), but both fit into the narrative of a parabolic bull run.

Found the article helpful? The biggest compliment you can give me is by liking and reposting!

#Bitcoin❗ #Bitcoin_Coneference_2024 #BullRunAhead #cryptopm

Understanding market manipulations is what separates winners from losers.
Many will charge $1,000 for this info, but not me.
Here's a 🧵 on how whales take money from ordinary people and how to avoid their traps 👇

It's well-known that whales and insiders significantly influence and manipulate our market.
However, few realize the extent and frequency of this manipulation.
Traders lose funds daily, becoming their exit liquidity.
That's why I decided to investigate and expose their tactics.

Whales often aim to stay unnoticed, but their trading typically follows this model:
1. Asset accumulation
2. Pump
3. Reaccumulation
4. Pump
5. Distribution
6. Dump
7. Redistribution
8. Dump
By studying this pattern, I identified the main manipulations of whales.

① Faking the patterns:
Whales create chart patterns by buying at resistance or selling during bounces. These manipulated patterns mislead retail traders who rely on them as market indicators, creating false levels and influencing market direction.

② Stop loss hunting:
Whales identify clusters of stop-loss orders at key price levels.
They then drive prices toward these levels by executing significant buy or sell orders, triggering the stops and causing rapid price fluctuations.

③ Range manipulation:
Whales reduce their entry price by pushing prices, causing some traders to exit at a loss.
Consolidation phases usually end after 4-5 touches, breaking the top or bottom lines.
If the price hits a breaking point but then reverses, it's likely manipulation.

④ Fair Value Gap (FVG):
FVGs occur from intense buying or selling, leading to notable price shifts and chart gaps.
After a good pump, prices usually does a pullback, benefiting major players and prompting latecomers to exit positions.

⑤ Stop runs:
Large players push prices past critical support or resistance points to trigger stop orders, creating cascading movements.
They then swiftly reverse within the range, capitalizing on stop liquidations and catching traders off guard.

⑥ Wash trading:
Wash trading is a market manipulation technique where traders artificially inflate an asset's value by increasing its trading volume. A wash trader typically moves crypto between wallet addresses or exchange accounts they control to create the illusion of high trading activity and demand.

⑦ Spoofing market orders:
Spoofing involves placing and canceling fake orders to deceive traders and bots, impacting price movements and posing detection challenges.
To not fall into this trap, just use limit orders and avoid reacting to transient walls.

⑧ "Closing the jaws":
This is when whales place significant buy and sell orders at closing prices to influence the market.
Remember that descending buy walls and ascending sell orders compress prices, trapping retail longs and benefiting shorts.

⑨ Two-sided market:
Whales place large orders on both bid and ask sides, manipulating prices by pushing them up and selling. This creates rallies or presses prices down while buying dips.
And retail traders, limited to one direction, get overrun by rapid price swings.
⋆ In the end, bonus ⋆
Here's a handy "cheatsheet" to keep you from being outplayed by these market movers 👇
➬ Avoid setting stop-losses at key levels.
➬ Wait for confirmation of price movement before investing.
➬ Allow a key support or resistance level to break.
➬ Resist the urge to buy into sudden pumps or low-volume trades.
➬ Examine the bid and ask spreads closely.
➬ Maintain patience, stick to your plan, and wait for the right opportunity.
If you found this thread helpful, don't forget to:
➬ Follow me @Crypto PM for more.
➬ Like/Bookmark/Repost if you can:

#WhaleAlert #Whale.Alert #MarketManipulation #cryptopm #Market_Update