Menjadi Trader

BTC UPDATE 30 APRIL 2026

BTC is still moving unevenly, down about -0.6% in the last 24 hours. The market looks to be 'losing direction' again in the short term.

Behind that, the big demand is actually still strong. Fund flows into crypto investment products exceeded $1B in a week, with BTC being the main contributor. Total assets under management have also returned to the highest levels seen in the past few months.

Corporations are also continuing to accumulate. In recent weeks, BTC purchases by large entities have been quite aggressive, strengthening the mid-term foundation.

Technically, there are early signs of recovery. Momentum is starting to turn bullish after previously weakening.

But the pressure hasn't lifted.

• ETFs have recorded outflows → a sign of short-term distribution
• RSI has dropped drastically in a short period → buyers are losing steam
• Large short positions with high leverage are starting to emerge → potential for extreme volatility

Interestingly, the 77K level is now the center of attention. Many are waiting for a reaction in this area to determine the next direction.

On the derivatives side, options players are still quite optimistic, with targets far above the current price. This indicates medium-term expectations remain bullish.

Conclusion:
The overall structure is still strong, supported by institutions & corporations,
but the short term is fragile and full of noise.

The current area is more suitable for observation than for aggressive entries.

The market is in a determining phase, and reactions at key levels will dictate the next direction.
$BTC

Last FOMC with Powell, Is the Market Ready to Face a New Era for The Fed?

This week marks a pivotal moment. The FOMC now is the last under Jerome Powell before his term officially ends on May 15, 2026.

Interestingly, the next meeting won’t happen until mid-June. This means that the interest rate decision and statements this time will be Powell's 'last legacy' before the baton is passed to the new chairman.

For the market, this isn't just another meeting. Typically, during transitional phases like this, policy direction starts to be read more deeply. Will Powell stay hawkish until the end, or will he start giving dovish signals as an opening act?

Insight for traders
If Powell remains tough at the end of his term, the market might shift into a risk-off mode temporarily. But if there are hints of easing, that could trigger the start of the next rally.

Moreover, after this, the policy direction will be heavily influenced by the new chairman. So the market is likely to start 'pricing in' expectations for future policies from now.

Conclusion
This FOMC shouldn't be taken lightly. It could be the starting point for a change in macro direction. Get ready for high volatility and avoid positions without a clear plan.

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$BTC

UAE Exits OPEC, Signals Break in Oil Cartel, What’s the Impact on Crypto?

UAE’s move to distance itself from OPEC has taken many by surprise. They’re not a small player; UAE is one of the top producers, even ranking in the top 3 for oil production contributions within OPEC.

According to the latest data, UAE’s contribution exceeds 10% of the total OPEC production. This means if they actually exit or reduce their commitments, the global supply balance could shift.

This isn’t just an oil drama. For the market, it could act as a major trigger. If OPEC loses control over production, oil prices could become more volatile. And if energy prices surge, the ripple effect could lead to global inflation.

Insights for Traders
Rising inflation = the likelihood of rate cuts being delayed. This usually puts pressure on crypto in the short term due to liquidity constraints.

However, on the flip side, global instability often strengthens the narrative of crypto as a safe haven. So the effects could go both ways, depending on how the market reacts.

Conclusion
This isn’t news that will move the charts today, but it’s an early signal of significant changes in the global macro landscape. It’s essential to keep an eye on this as it could trigger a domino effect in the crypto market.

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$BTC

US Set to Announce Bitcoin Reserves, Major Bullish Catalyst on the Horizon?

Hot news is coming from the White House. The US government is reportedly gearing up to announce strategic Bitcoin reserves soon. This isn't just talk; it's a top priority and could be accompanied by official regulations.

If this happens, the impact could be massive. Just imagine, a country as big as the US starting to treat Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, not just a speculative asset. This could be a turning point for global adoption.

Moreover, there's momentum from the bill proposed by Senator Cynthia Lummis. If this regulation passes, it won't just elevate legitimacy but also potentially strengthen institutional demand.

Trader Insight
This is high-impact news, but caution is still advised. The market often “prices in” events before the official announcement. So, there’s a possibility of a buy the rumor, sell the news scenario.

On the flip side, if the government actually goes through with buying BTC, it could lead to a long-term supply shock. That means selling pressure decreases while demand increases.

Conclusion
This is one of the most awaited bullish catalysts in the market right now. But don’t FOMO before an official confirmation. Wait for market reactions post-announcement.

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$BTC

Iran Set to Open Hormuz, But the US Refuses, Crypto Market Growing Uncertain?

Iran has thrown a peace proposal into the mix, ready to open the Strait of Hormuz if the US lifts the blockade and stops the conflict. The problem is, the US hasn't given any signals of agreement. In fact, some officials have openly rejected this scenario.

This means the chances of a deal are slim, and geopolitical tensions remain high. This isn't just a regional issue; Hormuz is a vital global oil distribution route. If it gets disrupted, the effects could ripple through to inflation, interest rate policies, and risk assets including crypto.

In the midst of this, BTC is still holding around 76K after failing to break 79K. This shows the market is currently on pause, with no strong conviction to either push higher or correct.

Insight for Traders
The current situation is a mix of macro and geopolitical factors. If the conflict heats up, typically risk assets can take some pressure first. However, if there's a sudden de-escalation, the market could trigger a relief rally.

So, it's not just about the technicals, but also headline news that can act as a sudden catalyst.

Conclusion
The market is in a wait-and-see phase with high volatility potential. Avoid over-leverage and it’s better to focus on key levels while keeping an eye on global developments.

Follow the Menjadi Trader account for sharper crypto insights.
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$BTC

FOMC Just Days Away, Plus US–Iran Conflict, Is the Market Ready to Shake?

With just 2 days to go until the last FOMC meeting under Jerome Powell, the market is nearly certain at 99% that there won't be a rate cut this time around. This means short-term liquidity remains unchanged, interest rates are still high, and this usually keeps the market a bit 'stuck'.

However, what's intriguing is what comes next. With the potential shift in chairmanship to Kevin Warsh, a rate cut scenario remains very much on the table. Many are expecting gradual interest rate decreases, just waiting for the right timing. For crypto, this is clearly a potential bullish catalyst, but not just yet.

On the other hand, geopolitical tensions are heating up again. The US has sent a total of 3 warships to the Middle East, a level not seen since the Iraq invasion in 2003. This is no small signal. The market is typically very sensitive to escalations like this.

Insight for Traders
We're currently facing two major pressures. From a macro perspective, there's no easing in sight. From a geopolitical angle, risks are on the rise. This combination can lead to a volatile market filled with fake moves.

If the FOMC comes in hawkish and the conflict intensifies, risk assets could face pressure. However, if we start to see signs of a rate cut moving forward, this could be the trigger for the next big rally.

Conclusion
Short term remains prone to chop and volatility. It's not the right time to go all-in. It makes more sense to wait for confirmation of direction after the FOMC and geopolitical developments.

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$BTC

Whale BTC Awakens from Slumber, Profits Rp303 Billion, Is Distribution Signal Starting?

A Bitcoin whale suddenly became active again after being dormant for 2 years and immediately sent 300 BTC to Binance. The value is around Rp370 billion, with profits of approximately Rp303 billion from a position taken 3 years ago at the 19K level.

Movements like this usually make the market alert. Why? Because deposits to exchanges are often interpreted as potential sell signals. This means there's a chance distribution is starting, especially after BTC has risen significantly from the previous cycle.

On the flip side, this also serves as strong validation for long-term holding strategies. From 19K to the current price, this whale basically just held on, without needing to overtrade, yet still achieved maximum results.

Insight for Traders
Don't just look at the profits, but also consider the timing. This whale didn’t sell halfway, but waited for the right momentum. The question now is, is this the start of a major distribution or just a small profit-taking move?

If many whales start sending BTC to exchanges, selling pressure usually increases. But if it’s only one or two wallets, the market can still absorb it.

Conclusion
The market is currently in a sensitive phase. Whale movements can be an early signal, but it doesn’t necessarily mean immediate bearishness. Keep an eye on exchange inflows and volume.

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$BTC

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$BTC

$BNB Running entry 2

Why I Built the MT Dashboard: Tired of Looking at Indicators Without Data

1/ Take a look at the indicators you're using now.

Do you know what your Win Rate is? Profit Factor? Max Drawdown?

No?

Congratulations, you're trading blind. 🧵

2/ I used to be the same way.

Placing MA, RSI, Stochastic. Layer upon layer. Charts look "professional."

The result? Random. Sometimes profit, sometimes loss, no clue why.

Because regular indicators just give SIGNALS, not DATA.

3/ Then I realized: if I don't know the stats of the tools I'm using, I'm not trading, I'm gambling.

So I built the MT Dashboard.

Not just a regular indicator. This is a FULL DASHBOARD on TradingView.

4/ What's all on one screen:

• Signal Score 0-100 (not just green/red arrows)
• Setup Quality A/B/C
• Probability %
• MTF Confluence (0/3 to 3/3)
• Entry/TP/SL automated + Distance %

5/ Plus COMPLETE market context:

• HTF Trend
• Volatility
• Money Flow (MFI) inflow or outflow
• Macro
• Correlation BTC | BTCDOM | USDT.D

You can't enter without knowing the big picture.

6/ And backtested stats PER COIN:

• Win Rate
• Profit Factor
• Expectancy
• Max Drawdown
• Max Losing Streak
• Average Trade Duration

Tracking 10 coins simultaneously: BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP, DOGE, ADA, TRX, SUI, HYPE.

7/ And the MOST important:

NON-REPAINTING.

Signals that appear in real-time are what they are. They don't change. No lies. Can be verified.

That's data integrity. Without this, all stats are meaningless.

BTC UPDATE 26 APRIL 2026

BTC is up slightly (+0.21%), but this movement feels more like a 'hold position' rather than the start of a new rally.

There's an interesting push from the political side. The pro-crypto narrative from the US government is gaining traction, even entering strategic realms. This could be a major catalyst if it translates into real policy.

On the demand side, institutions are still consistently entering. ETFs are recording inflows of hundreds of millions this week, indicating that the capital flow hasn't stopped.

Long-term holders are also starting to show strength. After being under pressure, they are back in profit. Usually, this signals that the market structure is starting to get healthy again.

However, the conditions aren't completely safe yet.

Some pressures are starting to show:
• There's potential for liquidity to shift to other sectors like major IPOs
• The market remains sensitive to global geopolitical issues
• Fund outflows have recently increased, followed by price drops

This means that while the foundation looks strong, short-term disruptions still frequently arise.

Community sentiment is also not solid:
Some see this as the start of a new bullish phase
While others view it as 'fake strength' before a correction

Interestingly, there's an expectation that the 80K level is an important area, potentially a trap before the next move.

Conclusion:
The market is still in a transitional phase. There's no truly strong dominant direction yet.

Bullish in narrative and structure,
but still vulnerable to noise and fake moves in the short term.

The focus now isn't on finding quick entries, but on reading market reactions at key levels.

$BTC

BTC UPDATE 25 APRIL 2026

BTC is experiencing a slight correction (-0.7%), but it’s not just the price that’s changing; the momentum is also starting to weaken.

Behind this decline, strong demand is still holding up. ETFs have been consistently recording inflows for over a week now, totaling over $2B. This signals that institutional money isn't leaving the market.

Even on the accumulation side, big players are getting more aggressive. The latest data shows significant increases in BTC holdings by strong hands, which usually indicates long-term confidence.

Companies aren’t lagging either. Some corporations are starting to increase their exposure by making large-scale BTC purchases, signaling that adoption is widening, not just hype.

However, the sell pressure is real:

• Miners are starting to distribute BTC to the market, increasing supply
• Funds from exploits are beginning to convert to BTC, potentially to be dumped on the market
• Technical indicators are starting to weaken (upward momentum is losing steam)

This is making the price action choppy and not as clear as before.

Market sentiment right now is leaning cautious:
Many are starting to suspect this could be a bull trap
Even though fundamentally it still looks strong

Conclusion:
The foundation remains bullish (supported by institutions & accumulation),
but in the short term, we are starting to lose direction.

Phases like this often become distribution or consolidation areas before the next big move.

The main focus now: don’t get caught up in euphoria, and wait for confirmation on the next direction.

BTC UPDATE 24 APRIL 2026

BTC is still inching up (+0.28%), but behind the scenes, the market is full of tug-of-war.

On a macro level, demand still looks strong. ETFs continue to record inflows, even for 7 consecutive days with a total of almost $2B. This shows institutional money isn't exiting; in fact, it's leaning towards increasing exposure.

What's more interesting is that long-term holders are still accumulating. In the last 30 days, about 130K BTC has been pulled from the market. Supply on exchanges is getting tighter — usually, this serves as fuel for a price increase.

In terms of momentum, BTC still looks “hot.” The short-term RSI is already high, meaning the upward trend is still in play, but it's also at risk of overheating.

Now, here’s where the risks start to emerge:

• There’s a big fund movement (ETH → BTC) from a suspicious wallet → potential selling pressure if liquidated
• Profit-taking is becoming aggressive, already breaking through levels that often signal local tops
• Macro factors are not entirely secure → interest rates & inflation are still looming shadows

Current market sentiment is really split:
Some are confident this is the start of a big rally to new levels
Others are starting to build short positions, expecting a drop

Conclusion:
The structure still leans bullish due to institutional support & supply squeeze.
But in the short term, it’s starting to get “noisy” → susceptible to shakeouts or quick corrections.

Phases like this aren’t about guessing direction; it’s about patiently waiting for a clear moment.

Ceasefire Extended, But Blockade Continues, Calm Market or Just Delay Panic?

Trump officially extended the ceasefire with Iran without a clear deadline, while waiting for a peace proposal from Iran. But interestingly, at the same time, the naval blockade continues and the military remains fully on standby.

What does this mean? This is not a total peace. This is just a "pause" with tensions still high.

On one hand, this can give a breather to the market because the potential for direct war is held back. But on the other hand, since there is no final deal yet, uncertainty is still very high.

For traders, this is the trickiest condition. Sentiment may seem positive at first, but it can easily turn negative if there is bad news from the negotiations.

Especially since Trump has previously changed his stance on extending the ceasefire. This makes the market direction even harder to predict.

An important insight, this is a delay phase, not a resolve. The market is usually prone to fake moves in conditions like this.

If a deal is reached, risk assets could rally. But if it fails, the potential dump could be deeper because expectations have already risen.

So right now, the focus is not on predicting the direction, but on reading the market reactions.

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$BTC

The Fed's Future Boss Confuses the Market, Crypto Also Under Pressure

The US market experienced a dump after a statement from Kevin Warsh, a strong candidate to replace Powell. What causes panic is not just the content of the statement, but the direction of the policy that has become unclear.

On one hand, Trump encourages interest rate cuts. But Warsh emphasizes the independence of The Fed. This means future decisions can no longer be predicted as easily as before.

This is what makes the market shaky. When the direction of interest rates is blurred, investors immediately hit the brakes due to drastically increased uncertainty.

Moreover, this coincides with ongoing geopolitical tensions. So now the market is being hit by two major factors at once: macro and global conflict.

For crypto, this is a tricky condition. Liquidity can be held back because investors are waiting for clarity. Volatility also has the potential to become wilder due to being headline-driven.

And tomorrow is an important moment. Warsh is scheduled to undergo Senate confirmation. If the next statement is more assertive or changes direction, the market could react significantly.

An insight for traders: this is not a phase for guessing direction. Focus on market reactions, not opinions.

Uncertainty is now double: geopolitical and The Fed's policy.

Maintain your position, do not over-leverage, and wait for a clearer direction.

Follow Becoming a Trader for updates that are directly related to market movements.

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$BTC

Gold Gives Strange Signals, Is the Market Pricing Something Again?

There is an interesting narrative from the movement of gold recently. In theory, gold is a safe haven. It should rise if geopolitics heat up.

But what happens is quite the opposite.

Since tensions between the US and Iran began to rise, gold hasn't continued its strong rally. In fact, right now in terms of price action, it is forming a rising wedge that tends to be bearish.

This is strange. When oil rises and geopolitics heats up, gold remains stagnant and even has the potential to decline.

If we draw the underlying thread, it could be that the market is pricing something ahead. It seems that this uncertainty will not last long, or there are other scenarios that are not yet visible.

For example, when Hormuz was briefly opened, the S&P 500 hit an ATH, but gold didn't drop significantly. Then, when it was closed again, gold also didn’t pump strongly.

This indicates a lack of synchronization among assets.

For crypto traders, this is important insight. If gold as an indicator of fear is actually bearish, the market might be preparing for a shift in sentiment.

Usually, this creates a tricky phase, because prices can move contrary to the expectations of the majority.

The strategy is not to be too rigid with the narrative. Pay attention to intermarket correlation. Sometimes signals from gold can provide clues about the broader market direction.

Follow Becoming a Trader for deeper insights beyond just the crypto chart.

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$BTC

Whale Enters $100M Long ETH, Very Confident or Just Setting a Trap?

The whale connected to Matrixport is making a big move again. After previously profiting around 59 million dollars, they are now entering again with a long position of 44,000 ETH worth approximately 100 million dollars.

This is not a small entry. This size can affect market sentiment.

Wallets that can be monitored:
https://hypurrscan.io/address/0x6C8512516Ce5669d35113A11Ca8B8DE322fD84F6#perps
https://hypurrscan.io/address/0xa5B0eDF6B55128E0DdaE8e51aC538c3188401D41#perps

The question is, is this a bullish signal or just a setup for a trap?

The timing is interesting. The position is opened just before the ceasefire deadline on April 22-23. If the situation calms down, the market could immediately have a relief rally, and this position would greatly benefit.

But if the conflict continues, the market could drop quickly, and such a large position is also at risk of pressure.

An important insight for traders, don't just follow the whale. They have different risk management, hedging, and capital.

What needs to be observed is the market reaction after this large entry. If the price rises and sustains, that’s confirmation. But if it weakens, be careful it could be a trap.

The market is currently full of external factors. So focus on price action, not just who is entering.

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$BTC

LST Solana From Euphoria to Correction, Is Liquidity Fleeing or Is the Market Resetting Again?

The Liquid Staking ecosystem in Solana exploded throughout 2025, with TVL reaching around 14B at its peak. Almost all players rose together, from Jito to Marinade, a clear sign of large liquidity entering and yield becoming attractive again.

But after that, the market changed. TVL plummeted drastically to around 6B in early 2026, and the decline was uniform. This is not just a matter of competition between projects, but there is indeed liquidity leaving this sector.

There are several things that can be read. First, it is highly likely that this is the effect of profit-taking after a phase of high yield. Second, funds may have moved to other more attractive sectors, such as trading or new narratives. Third, this could be a normal phase after the market has overheated too much.

For traders, this is important insight. When one DeFi sector starts losing liquidity, there is usually a rotation to another sector. So it doesn’t mean the market is dead, but the money is just moving elsewhere.

If later TVL starts to stabilize and rise again, it could be an early signal that this sector is ready for a comeback. But as long as there are no strong signs, it's better not to expect a quick recovery.

Focus on where liquidity is moving now, not where the hype used to be.

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BTC Breaks 74K, Peace Fails, Market Enters Panic Mode Again?

Bitcoin has fallen below 74,000 again after Iran rejected the continuation of peace talks with the US. Sentiment changed drastically, from hope to uncertainty.

This shows one thing, the market is now super sensitive to geopolitical headlines. Hopes for peace briefly pushed BTC up, but once it failed, it was immediately hit down again.

Even the global market was affected. Stocks fell, oil surged sharply, a sign that investors are starting to enter risk-off mode again.

For traders, this is a tricky condition. Movements are no longer purely technical but driven by news. One headline can change the direction of the market in a matter of minutes.

An important insight, as long as the conflict's direction is unclear, BTC tends to be volatile and prone to fake moves. Support can be broken quickly, but it can also rebound fast if there is positive news.

The strategy now is not to chase direction but to maintain positions. Reduce leverage, wait for confirmation, and avoid FOMO amid chaos.

This is not a market for guessing, but for surviving.

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$BTC

Massive Cash Outflow, Is the Risk-On Signal Starting to Reverse?

The money market fund has just recorded the largest outflow in history. In one week, funds have exited cash positions at a scale far exceeding withdrawals since 2017.

This is an important signal. When money flows out of safe assets, it usually indicates a search for higher returns in riskier assets like stocks and crypto.

Although partially influenced by tax factors, the magnitude of this outflow still indicates a shift in investor mindset. Risk appetite is starting to rise.

For the crypto market, this could be fuel. New liquidity has the potential to enter, but remember, this flow of funds does not always have an instant impact on prices.

Insight for traders, this is an early signal, not a trigger for entry. If combined with improving macro sentiment, the potential for an upward trend could form.

But if it coincides with hot geopolitical issues or tight policies, the effects could be restrained.

So continue to wait for price action confirmation before joining the flow.

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$BTC