tyj天赢居

今天的直播就到这里，谢谢天友们！

1月29日和3月2日是有色金属稀缺资源第六次上榜《赢家笔记》发出的警报，当天都按照要求胜利大逃亡了。3月12日是煤炭和电力第五次上榜《赢家笔记》发出了调出警报，我们也在当天顺利出局了。现在说这个事情的意义就是提醒天友们，下一次波段出局的时机，还是要按照这个科学的方法来处理。敲了警钟还贪心，那就只有承担亏本的结果。#天赢居[超话]##tyj天赢居[超话]##微博电台计划##大咖说财经##A股[超话]#

我们不是一味地唱多或者唱多，而是努力发现市场的客观规律，上次在五天节点抢了13个小时的反弹，也是很愉快的啊。接下来在3月20日9:33出现右侧信号以后肯定也要好好把握的。只要有钱，机会迟早都是要来的。#天赢居[超话]##tyj天赢居[超话]##微博电台计划##大咖说财经##A股[超话]#

从盘面表现来看，农业、白酒、消费等防御性方向走势相对稳健，渔业、种业、水产品、粮食概念、乳品饮料等板块继续补涨，说明在大盘震荡修复过程中，资金仍然偏好低波动的防御方向，本质上仍是当前风险偏好偏谨慎背景下的避险选择。但是轮动节奏明显偏快，持续性依然不足。#天赢居[超话]##tyj天赢居[超话]##微博电台计划##大咖说财经##A股[超话]#

反抽通常是三段式的，所以尾盘再翘一下也是正常的。最终还是以55日均线4081的得失作为评价的参数。站不稳就继续洗盘到3月20日9:33#天赢居[超话]##tyj天赢居[超话]##微博电台计划##大咖说财经##A股[超话]#

没有任何悬念，甚至没有任何波澜，昨天大盘反弹13个小时之后再次洗盘到下个星期。尾盘的一点卖压，让三大指数分时下杀。在市场里面震荡行情，要忍受轮动，保持耐心，不断总结，不见兔子不撒鹰##tyj天赢居[超话]##天赢居[超话]##微博电台计划##大咖说财经##A股[超话]#

【Stock Friend Interaction】 Tian***shang：
We need to wait for the 13-day point, and then estimate that there will be a rebound next week, right? Teacher
【Teacher's Reply】
We need to take it one step at a time. On March 2, we successfully escaped. During the five days of consolidation, we captured a 13-hour rebound. Next, we will seize another five days rebound at the 13-day consolidation point. We don't mind making less each time, as long as we don't lose money each time. #tyjTianYingJu[Super Topic]##TianYingJu[Super Topic]##Weibo Radio Plan##Experts Talk Finance##A Shares[Super Topic]#

In the past few days, many new friends have joined. To be honest, it's hard to encounter an opportunity like the one in January where there was an increase of 70 to 80 percent in twenty days. Generally, it takes many years to encounter such an opportunity, and some friends have been trading stocks for decades without capturing it even once! However, on March 10th at 9:33, I seized a rebound that lasted for 13 hours. Gaining a few points in two or three days is also quite good. Next week, during the 13-day node rebound, a five-day rebound cycle is expected, and the increase will be more than this time. #tyj天赢居[超话]##天赢居[超话]##微博电台计划##大咖说财经##A股[超话]#

昨天涨满13个小时之后，60分钟K线图就出现了macd与kdj双死叉的调出信号，至今没有好转，所以就继续等洗盘13天的机会。当前最突出的特征仍是板块跷跷板，之前反弹时的科技硬件等进攻方向阶段性休整的时候，防御股补涨。今天的煤炭电力也按计划洗盘了。都是按规矩出牌，挺好的。#tyj天赢居[超话]##天赢居[超话]##微博电台计划##大咖说财经##A股[超话]#

昨天涨满13个小时之后已经处于洗盘周期，所以做完五天节点后反弹，下一次机会就是13天节点#tyj天赢居[超话]##天赢居[超话]##微博电台计划##大咖说财经##A股[超话]#

The individual stocks are basically flat, but there is a lack of a clear main line that can drive the overall market, with funds moving more between different directions for high-low switching and rotational testing.
In the afternoon fluctuations, large and retail investors saw a capital outflow of about 18 billion, but the magnitude is still within a controllable range. Overall, the capital situation is relatively stable: institutions are patiently holding, existing funds are rotating, and short-term fluctuations are more due to style switching rather than panic selling pressure.
Before the box structure has clearly broken out, the key is to control positions and lower expectations. #tyj天赢居[超话]##天赢居[超话]##微博电台计划##大咖说财经##A股[超话]#

会议落幕，主力资金仍以观望为主，未见明显异动，说明情绪暂处于相对平稳区间。结合3月10日短线反弹形成的支撑基础，目前不必急于下手，耐心等待方向明朗更符合纪律。收敛型震荡的本质就是趋势择向过程，因此操作上把握一个核心：仓位管控先行，一旦关键支撑失守，及时控仓回避回撤；在方向未明之前，以谨慎观察为主，不用在震荡区间里追涨抢跑。#tyj天赢居[超话]##天赢居[超话]##微博电台计划##大咖说财经##A股[超话]#

午后分化格局延续，三大指数涨跌不一。大盘整体仍以震荡为主，属于典型的“收敛整理→等待方向选择”的关键阶段。
上证指数大小周期指标普遍处于粘合胶着状态，午后继续在5日均线4121点与13日均线4129点之间窄幅震荡，整体偏绿盘运行。这种走势说明多空双方暂未打破平衡：既没有形成向上突破的合力，也没有出现向下加速的信号，短线仍以“观察与防守”为主。#tyj天赢居[超话]##天赢居[超话]##微博电台计划##大咖说财经##A股[超话]#

今年的春季行情，原本1月29日就因为完成全年任务而采取谨慎态度，但粉丝们太热情，所以2月3日11:21至3月2日分享了一次机会后出局；3月10日9:33至3月12日也按照承诺分享了三天反弹机会。接着打了个13天节点和21天节点处于相对低位的机会。当然，指数洗盘的时候做防御股是可以的，但要设置好止损位，破5日均线就要出来#tyj天赢居[超话]##天赢居[超话]##微博电台计划##大咖说财经##A股[超话]#

日线：MACD维持小绿点，快慢线在零轴上方趋于粘合；KDJ在50附近粘合，说明中期多空力量相对均衡，属于临界观察期。
60分钟MACD死叉之后在零轴上方粘合，KDJ死叉向下，小时级别仍有一定调整压力。
上涨家数接近3000家，但领涨方向集中在防御股和低位修复、持续性偏弱。煤炭电力昨天六次上榜《赢家笔记》之后，今天按计划洗盘。#tyj天赢居[超话]##天赢居[超话]##微博电台计划##大咖说财经##A股[超话]#

昨天涨满13个小时之后开始洗盘，今天沪深京三市成交额约 1.51万亿，较上一交易日同期缩量约884亿，交投活跃度有所下降。上证指数早盘跳空低开后反抽颈线4129点附近，但随后回落，显示上方仍有抛压。短期均线整体走平并交织在一起，多空进入典型的“胶着拉锯”状态。按照《tyj均线的使用》，今后两天在均线密集区之上是五线开花，在密集区之下是毒蜘蛛。由于3月3日4197开始的55个小时洗盘周期尚未结束，所以大概率向下完成洗盘结构。#tyj天赢居[超话]##天赢居[超话]##微博电台计划##大咖说财经##A股[超话]#

在这种“存量博弈 + 轮动加速”的结构里，策略其实就两种：
1）控仓躺平，等轮动：不去猜短线热点，把仓位灵敏度放在第一位，等待主线或指数给出更清晰的右侧信号。
2）小仓位防御股快进快出做价差，严格执行纪律，见好就收，不恋战。
总之，防御板块能涨，但更多是阶段性的“资金避风”，不是确定性主升。真正舒服的机会，仍要等轮动降速、主线完成消化后再出手。#tyj天赢居[超话]##天赢居[超话]##微博电台计划##大咖说财经##A股[超话]#

The focus of early market rotation is clearly leaning towards defensive and low-end consumption directions. The hotel and catering sector has seen a surge, more reflecting a short-term speculation on 'consumption recovery expectations'; daily chemical products with essential attributes in personal care have attracted some risk-averse capital; warehousing and logistics, with both undervalued and consumer service attributes, have also gained capital attention. The tourism sector is additionally catalyzed by the upcoming Qingming holiday, with seasonal catalysts being quite direct; certain sub-sectors of food and beverage have also seen capital inflows. The commonality among these directions is: valuations are mostly below historical averages, exhibiting stronger weak-cycle attributes, and serve as a foothold for capital seeking stability during the oscillation period. #tyj天赢居[超话]##天赢居[超话]##微博电台计划##大咖说财经##大咖说财经#

From the perspective of capital migration logic, during the spring market, the main capital has profited significantly from scarce resources in non-ferrous metals and technology hardware. After the meeting, there is a habitual shift towards low-position defense and consumer sectors, with a clear reversal in risk appetite, continuing to seek structural opportunities in an existing environment. In other words, defensive varieties are more like a "temporary safe haven," rather than a signal of a complete market shift. #tyj Tianyingju [super topic] ## Tianyingju [super topic] ## Weibo Radio Plan ## Experts Discuss Finance ## A-shares [super topic] #

上午盘上证指数冲4138.81失败，MACD快慢线试探0轴未果，现在虽然回到4129附近，但更多是权重托举下的“回收”，缩量回升通常只能定义为修复。指数稳、个股仍弱，说明仍是存量腾挪。防御股补涨显示处于洗盘周期。耐心等待，不奢望还能赚多少，等13天节点到了就再次下手。#天赢居[超话]##tyj天赢居[超话]##大咖说财经###微博电台计划##A股[超话]#