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A historical moment, the opposite of danger and opportunity! Trump's assassination and the reaction of the crypto community, the crypto trend can no longer be stopped

Perhaps Trump has always been concerned about cryptocurrencies, but Arthur Hayes believes that his concern is fake and is just to cater to young, politically active and upstart cryptocurrency users. However, as can be seen from Trump's assassination, there are serious divisions and crises within the United States, and social contradictions are becoming more and more obvious. If this situation continues, it may lead to war, which will further strengthen the status of Bitcoin and other crypto assets as the ultimate global safe-haven assets.

In addition, whether Biden or Trump takes office, they cannot ignore the influence of crypto assets and the young people of Generation Z behind them. As an old man approaching 80 years old, Trump should understand that the world will eventually belong to these young people, and they will lead the arrival of a new era. Whether he likes it or not, the trend of cryptocurrency is unstoppable, and it is better to let it develop legally than to let scams everywhere. Trump's waving fist and shedding blood is not only a classic moment in American political history, but also a sign that the crypto world is moving towards the "compliance era."

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Mentougou's large-scale asset distribution caused the market to plummet horribly. How will the market go next? How can retail investors save themselves?

Last night, the price of Bitcoin briefly exceeded $67,087, and then began to fall back. It failed to effectively step back on the support level during the early morning period, causing the market trend to be affected. The short-term market may decline further, and we need to wait for the shock adjustment after the market stabilizes.

In the market, as Grayscale Capital began to sell Ethereum (ETH) and Mentougou, the impact increased, coupled with the continuous upward trend of European and American stock markets for one and a half years, and amid the uncertainty before the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, capital profit chips fled one after another.
Tesla's performance was significantly lower than market expectations, which also became the trigger for the withdrawal of market capital. An interest rate cut cannot immediately bring about a sharp rise in the market. This requires a gradual process. The main capital will seek opportunities to enter the market and seek buying opportunities at lower prices, rather than blindly chasing the rise like retail investors.
Market volatility has increased significantly this week and risks are higher than last week. For those investors who cannot afford losses, it is recommended to avoid futures trading for the time being.
At the same time, it is recommended that investors pay attention to the market’s trading time nodes: 5:00-7:00 in the morning, 12:30-13:30 noon and 18:30-19:45 in the evening. These periods are the times when there are more intraday trading opportunities. The trading time coincides with the main trading time in America, Asia, Europe and America, and the indicator signals are used to decide whether to enter the market.
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【Industry】Trump is "in good spirits" and will still attend the Nashville BTC conference

BTC Inc. CEO David Bailey said he spoke with the former president's team after the assassination on July 13.

Former US President Donald Trump still plans to attend the Bitcoin conference in Nashville, Tennessee, despite being assassinated in Pennsylvania on July 13. This was revealed by David Bailey, CEO of Bitcoin Magazine, one of the organizers of the conference.

Bailey posted the news on X.com on July 14, saying that he "just spoke with the president's team," referring to Trump, and that the former president was "in good spirits."

He added that Trump was "excited to see you in Nashville and give a speech for the world to hear."

The former president promised to speak at the conference earlier this week, before the assassination. The event runs from July 25 to July 27, and Trump is scheduled to speak on July 27.

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Trump wants to be the first "Bitcoin President" in the United States

On May 22, the Trump campaign team issued an announcement on its official website, stating that its campaign will begin accepting Bitcoin donations. Currently, Trump supporters can use any cryptocurrency accepted by Coinbase Commerce products to donate to Trump.

The announcement reads: "Biden's agent Elizabeth Warren said in her attack on cryptocurrencies that she is building an "anti-cryptocurrency army" to limit Americans' right to make their own financial choices...MAGA supporters now have a new cryptocurrency option, and they will build a cryptocurrency army on November 5 to drive the campaign to victory!"

This move undoubtedly further clarifies the differences in policy tendencies between Trump and Biden on cryptocurrency matters. In this term that is about to pass, Biden and his Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren launched a fierce and comprehensive "regulatory attack" on the cryptocurrency industry, and rounds of regulatory prosecutions have made many practitioners miserable.

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The Future of Cryptocurrency Is in Asia

Asia could be the growth monster of this cycle as US regulation slams on.

Prominent traders such as GCR and Arthur Hayes have long discussed Asia’s long-term impact on cryptocurrencies, with some arguing that investors in the region will be the driving force of the current cycle.

With the brutal US regulatory environment and increasingly positive developments in Hong Kong and mainland China, the case for Asia to lead the crypto industry continues to strengthen.

Hong Kong’s new clear crypto regulations and political ties with the mainland suggest that mainland China is indirectly supporting Hong Kong, positioning it as a regulated crypto hub. Hong Kong’s recent approval of a crypto ETF further supports this view.

In contrast, the US presents a different picture, with the SEC’s recent actions against Metamask and Uniswap, which the FBI warned were a regulatory attack on cryptocurrencies.

These actions reflect the growing scrutiny of crypto businesses within the US, which could drive our more favorable overseas development environment in Asia and bring industry hubs.
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Forecast of China's economy in the next five years, the big bull market will come, doubling is the lowest standard...

The content of the article is very simple,

There is only one table,

If you can understand this table, you can understand the economic cycle.

Why does the economy have cycles?

The most fundamental reason is because:

The supply and demand relationship will always change.

There are yin and yang in the sky, and the law of Tao is always there.

In economics, yin and yang are demand and supply.

The supply and demand relationship will always go from balance to imbalance, and then to balance, and so on and so forth, endlessly.

Yin and yang eventually give birth to the Eight Diagrams,

because of the changes in this yin and yang relationship, according to the combination, there will be 8 situations in the end.

Therefore:

There are also 8 situations in the economic cycle, and 9 years is considered a reincarnation.

The table at the end of my article,

is to interpret the operation of China's economy under this change in supply and demand relationship,

as well as everyone's economic sense and income situation.

The values ​​of demand and supply are just a hint.

Don't ask me why I set this value.

The specific algorithm of each value in this table,

I guess not many people will think deeply about it,

but once you think deeply about it,

I believe you will get more.

I suggest that everyone think carefully about the algorithm behind it. You can take out a calculator and press it twice, or even calculate it with your children, or you can establish a basic economic view for them from an early age.

People who want to see the conclusion directly can also do so.

In fact, I have written the big conclusion in many of my previous articles, and it remains unchanged:

2024 will be the starting point for China's economic turning point.

In the next three years, China will have a 10-year bull market, and doubling is the minimum standard.

I will post it for evidence. We will look at the results again in three years.

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AI finally spoke: Bitcoin price will break through the $77,000 mark｜TodayAI

Recently, a new deep learning model prediction has attracted widespread attention. The model is trained based on 370 different on-chain indicators and predicts that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) is expected to reach a record high in the next 30 days. This prediction immediately caused a heated response in the cryptocurrency market, and various investors and market analysts have invested in analyzing this trend.

Investors have shown great interest in this prediction because the trend of Bitcoin prices has a profound impact on the entire cryptocurrency market. Many people have begun to re-evaluate their portfolios and consider whether they should increase their holdings of Bitcoin. At the same time, professional market analysts are trying to interpret the specific indicators and influencing factors behind this prediction through more detailed data analysis, including trading volume, trading activity and other on-chain behavior patterns, in order to verify the accuracy and reliability of the model.

Posts discussing this forecast have rapidly increased on social media and major cryptocurrency forums, with investors and analysts sharing their insights and strategies and exchanging ideas on how to use this information. Some cryptocurrency news platforms and blogs have also begun to follow up on the report and publish detailed analysis articles to explore the various impacts this forecast may have on the market.

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The conflict between Iran and Israel escalates, the United States harvests 20 countries, 6 trillion withdraws, and India's economy may decline for 20 years

On April 19, the conflict between Iran and Israel continued. Israel promised to respond to Iranian attacks. Immediately afterwards, Iran also stated that it would respond appropriately to any Israeli action. Iran is ready to "use weapons that have not been used so far." This has increased investors' concerns about the continued escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran, and has intensified people's concerns that the conflict in Gaza is spreading further to the Middle East, causing oil, gold and the US dollar to soar.

Just as the continued escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel stimulated the rise in oil prices, which will once again push US inflation expectations out of control, according to a report published by UBS strategists on the 19th, the strong growth in US retail sales in March showed that the combination of strong US economic growth and stubborn inflation increased the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates rather than cutting them, which will cause the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again at the beginning of next year, reaching a federal funds rate of 6.5% by the middle of next year. The agency said that the possibility of US inflation failing to fall to the Fed's target level is increasing, prompting the Fed to raise interest rates again and triggering a deep sell-off in the US bond and stock markets.
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Less than 1 day before the halving, what do the big guys think?
Original: john316 2024.04.19

On April 18, 2024, Google Trends data showed that the search popularity for "Bitcoin halving" hit a new high. Nigeria, the Netherlands, Switzerland and Cyprus are most interested in Bitcoin halving.
Less than 1 day before the halving, what do well-known institutions, users, and KOLs think about the halving?

Bernstein
Analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein expect Bitcoin to resume its bullish trajectory after the halving and reiterated their goal of reaching $150,000 by the end of 2025. "We expect Bitcoin's bullish trajectory to resume post-halving, when mining hashrate has adjusted and ETF inflows resume," Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday. "In addition, we believe that the integration of spot Bitcoin ETH with exchanges, RIAs will continue to provide structural demand for Bitcoin. We still expect Bitcoin to hit a cycle high of $150,000 by 2025."

Crypto.com
The CEO of cryptocurrency company Crypto.com recently expressed his views on the Bitcoin halving event. He noted that the market may experience some selling pressure on Bitcoin during the Bitcoin halving, but stressed that the halving event will be supportive to Bitcoin prices in the long run.

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Halving countdown, what is the current situation in the cryptocurrency circle?

Bitcoin prices have fluctuated violently recently, and on April 14, they once fell below the integer mark of 60,000 US dollars. Affected by this, the crypto market once again ushered in a liquidation amount of over 100 million. As of press time, the price of Bitcoin rebounded to 66,700 US dollars. It is worth noting that there is less than a week left before the fourth halving of Bitcoin. The halving event will lead to a reduction in miners' rewards, which will directly affect the circulation speed of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin halving cycle
Bitcoin halving usually occurs every four years or every 210,000 production. When Bitcoin is halved, the newly produced Bitcoin will be reduced by half. In other words, the reward for miners to verify transactions and add them to the blockchain is reduced by 50%.

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Binance Forecast: Halving is imminent, what will happen in the future?

1. Bitcoin halving, which is designed to regulate the supply of new BTC tokens, has historically influenced the supply dynamics, market sentiment, and adoption of tokens.

2. Halvings tend to increase Bitcoin's visibility, leading to increases in price and adoption. They also stimulate discussions related to blockchain technology, Bitcoin network dynamics, and crypto as a unique asset class.

3. Although historical patterns show that BTC prices rise and adoption expands in the months following halving events, it is important to note that the upcoming halving in April 2024 has proven to be unprecedented in several important ways.
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Hong Kong Breaking News: A large amount of funds from the mainland will flow into ETFs
Original john316
2024-04-17 00:04 Hong Kong, China 37 people have heard

Trading will be simpler
According to TVB News, the Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission has approved at least three fund companies to cooperate with licensed exchanges to allow citizens to purchase spot Bitcoin and Ethereum with securities accounts.

Currently, investors who want to buy virtual currencies need to open an account at a virtual currency exchange. Several fund companies announced that they have been granted licenses by the Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission and have cooperated with two licensed exchanges on the market to launch virtual asset fund products, that is, citizens can directly use securities accounts to purchase spot Bitcoin and Ethereum without opening an account at the exchange. Some industry insiders believe that the new measures will help promote the development of virtual asset transactions and increase tax revenue.

OSL CEO Pan Zhiyong told Foresight News: "It is expected that by the end of April, investors can officially purchase Bitcoin spot ETFs from these three fund companies, just like buying ordinary stocks." People related to VDX and HashKey Exchange also confirmed this information. Unless there are more unexpected circumstances, investors will most likely be able to purchase Bitcoin spot ETFs in Hong Kong in April-May.
#比特币减半 #新币挖矿 #etf
​

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What is the essence of gold and Bitcoin?

Sudden incidents always happen in the dead of night. You cannot predict tomorrow and accidents.

In the early morning of the 14th, Iran launched more than 100 missiles and drones at Israel, just to fight for a breath, the national face-the embassy in Syria was bombed by Israel, and was exported by someone. Uncles can tolerate but aunts can't, just do it. Iran has supported its Middle Eastern brothers behind the scenes and joined the game to defend national dignity to warn Israel, the United States and Western countries not to stretch their hands too far, or they will burn themselves.

When the cannon sounded, gold was worth a lot of money. Gold and Bitcoin fell in response. Could it be that the rockets that the two big guys swiped were squeezed from our leeks? It directly responded to the famous saying: No snowflake is innocent when an avalanche occurs, and every strand of hair in the global village is closely related.

Before the fight in the village, the iron sticks in the canteen were in short supply. The agents with a keen sense of national conflict had already pushed up gold and Bitcoin to reap wealth. The breakthrough of gold and Bitcoin ETF brought crypto prosperity. A sudden regional conflict forced many people's wealth to return.

, in terms of information gap and scarcity, the safe-haven attribute is also a major advantage, but the gold and Bitcoin in the world now are no longer the same as the gold and Bitcoin in the past.
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The truth of millions of people's tears in the currency circle - Will Bitcoin plummet and crash today? Is it a loss or a bold bottom-fishing?

Original: john316 2024.04.15
The currency circle has been ups and downs for seven years. The emperor's appearance is the style of time. Watch the night and call for the return of dawn!

Since the start of the bull market, the number of people who have been liquidated has reached millions. Whose bull market is it? Is it the institution? Is it the dealer? Is it the casino exchange? But it is not the retail investors! The psychology of the leek novice: dare not buy if it falls too fiercely, and dare not buy if it rises too fiercely?

Many people think that "war" has little impact on digital currency. In fact, after the Bitcoin ETF was passed, Wall Street financial institutions joined the battlefield of digital currency. The Pentagon of the US G is used to formulate strategies, Hollywood is used for cultural output, US G universities cultivate talents, Silicon Valley creates technology, and Wall Street - controls capital! In fact, Bitcoin has gradually become the back garden of the US G, and it is the new sickle used by the US G to harvest the world!

I summarize the four direct reasons for the plunge tragedy in the past two days: 1. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has escalated, and the market risk aversion has heated up! 2. The Fed's interest rate cut expectations have not been met! 3. The three major US stock indexes have collectively plummeted, directly leading to the collapse of the currency circle! 4. Bitcoin still has one week to complete the halving, and the good news has turned into bad news! So what kind of big game does the old Americans want to play in the few days left before the halving? Listen to my detailed analysis

I have communicated with many investors since last year. At that time, many people expected that the US G would cut interest rates next, but I thought there was no evidence at all, and it would definitely be postponed, and it would be postponed continuously. Later, the facts proved that I was right. The rumors of interest rate cuts expected by everyone from November to December last year were self-defeating, and even

There is no specific time point, but there are still people hyping this topic. Who is it? Who is taking the opportunity to buy stocks and Bitcoin? Who dares to take real money to bet on an uncertain event without any signs? Why is the smartest Buffett hoarding more and more cash? What is the US doing? 1. In recent months, after two months of stagflation, the US stock market started to suffer, starting with a big negative line!
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Why did Bitcoin plummet before the halving? Has the S3 season begun? Can the spring of the cottage market come again?

Another plunge before the halving?

Entering April, there is less than a week left before the fourth Bitcoin "halving", but in the generally optimistic mood of the market, the market has once again seen a sharp decline. $70,000 seems to have become a difficult barrier for Bitcoin to overcome. After several failed breakthroughs, it has once again ushered in a rapid decline, reaching $600 million last night.

Affected by this, the crypto market has once again ushered in a liquidation amount of over 100 million. According to Coinglass data, in the past 24 hours, the entire network has liquidated $935 million, of which long orders have liquidated $753 million and short orders have liquidated $182 million.

Has the S3 season begun?

On April 13, Iran attacked Israel, and the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East further intensified, with the price of Bitcoin falling by more than 8.2%. Minutes after the attack, the price of Bitcoin plummeted from $67,000 to $61,624, wiping out more than $130 million in market value.

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Bitcoin will be scarcer than gold after halving

Bitcoin is about to usher in its fourth halving event
For the first time since its inception, Bitcoin's annual inflation rate is lower than the inflation rate of gold, a typical means of value storage. When the Bitcoin block height reaches 840,000, Bitcoin's annual supply will be reduced by half, causing its annual inflation rate to drop from 1.7% to 0.85%. In contrast, gold supply is expected to increase by 1-2% each year, depending on technological changes and economic conditions.

To date, Bitcoin has experienced three halving events: November 28, 2012: Bitcoin's block subsidy was reduced from 50 BTC per block to 25 BTC per block. July 9, 2016: Bitcoin's second halving reduced the block subsidy from 25 BTC per block to 12.5 BTC per block. May 20, 2020: Bitcoin’s third halving reduces the block subsidy from 12.5 BTC per block to 6.25 BTC per block.

The upcoming fourth Bitcoin halving is expected to occur on April 20, 2024 at 11:00 EST, and with it, the new supply of Bitcoin per block will decrease from 6.25 BTC to 3,125 BTC. Over this period (210,000 blocks or about 4 years), Bitcoin’s supply will increase by 164,250 BTC (from 19,687,500 to 20,671,875), only 328,124 more Bitcoins away from the maximum supply limit of 21 million.

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[Bitcoin Halving Countdown] The latest Bitcoin Halving Time Forecast and How to Deal with the Impact of Bitcoin Halving

The mining K reward is halved, and the Bitcoin output is halved. Halving is not to cut Bitcoin in half, but to reduce the number of block rewards for issuing Bitcoin by half.
Bitcoin halving is to regulate the money supply and occurs every 210,000 blocks or about every four years. Initially, the mining reward for each block was 50 BTC since Satoshi Nakamoto introduced the Bitcoin protocol until November 28, 2012.

Subsequently, this reward was halved to 25 BTC per block. And as another 210,000 blocks passed, a new block was mined about every ten minutes, so on July 9, 2016, the reward was further reduced to 12.5 Bitcoins. The most recent halving took place on May 11, 2020, bringing the block reward down to 6.25 BTC at the current exchange rate.

The countdown to the fourth halving has begun, with the 210,000th block since the 630,000th block, meaning that from the 840,000th block onwards there will be another halving. Based on the data and the average time it takes for blocks to be mined, we are able to predict the date of the halving fairly accurately, which is expected to occur around April 20th.

As the mining rate of blocks increases, the halving may be brought forward to April 17th, or even earlier. As the halving approaches, the predictions for the halving time become more and more accurate, right up to the last block. After the halving, miners' rewards will be halved from 6.25 BTC per block to 3.125 BTC, which will cause the total mining volume to drop sharply from the current approximately 900 BTC per day to 450 BTC.
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Closing speech of the Hong Kong Web3 Carnival - "Meeting the "1995 Moment" of Web3"
Original: john316999 2024.04.11
On April 9, at the closing ceremony of the 2024 Hong Kong Web3 Carnival, Dr. Xiao Feng, Chairman of Wanxiang Blockchain and Chairman and CEO of HashKey Group, published an in-depth observation on the explosion of blockchain and Web3 industry applications. Dr. Xiao Feng believes that Web3 is about to usher in its own "1995 moment" and comprehensively analyzes the basic framework for the arrival of this moment and the timing of its arrival. In addition, Dr. Xiao Feng released the white paper "The First Principles of the New Economy of Web3" at this carnival.
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