小熊oo7
村里某机构镰刀手！拥有丰富实战经验以及资金管理交易员，: BTCyhh
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The market situation has been discussed for a whole week. Starting from the initial 3800 points, it reached 3950 points after a wave of rise, and now it has pulled back to 3750 points. I still stick to my point of view. Only when the daily line tests around 3500 points again, can we really think that this adjustment is over. And to achieve this, I am afraid that those who are keen on chasing ETFs with ten times leverage will need to suffer a heavy blow.
In my opinion, the price of big cake is roughly around 65,000 points, while the second cake fluctuates around 3500 points. Regarding the trend of the entire bull market, I divide it into five stages. First, big cake led the market and ended the long bear market, which took a year; next, the second cake began to exert its strength and led the altcoins to rise together, which lasted for half a year; then, big cake rose again and started a new bull market cycle, which lasted another half a year; then, the second cake continued to lead, and the altcoin market also entered the bull market, which lasted another half a year; finally, it will usher in a one-year bear market adjustment. At present, we are in the second stage, and there is still a long way to go from the peak of the market.
In my opinion, the price of big cake is roughly around 65,000 points, while the second cake fluctuates around 3500 points. Regarding the trend of the entire bull market, I divide it into five stages. First, big cake led the market and ended the long bear market, which took a year; next, the second cake began to exert its strength and led the altcoins to rise together, which lasted for half a year; then, big cake rose again and started a new bull market cycle, which lasted another half a year; then, the second cake continued to lead, and the altcoin market also entered the bull market, which lasted another half a year; finally, it will usher in a one-year bear market adjustment. At present, we are in the second stage, and there is still a long way to go from the peak of the market.
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The market has been turbulent recently, and the reasons for the surge have gradually surfaced. It is rumored that the SEC is expected to make a major change in the issue of spot Ethereum ETF. Once this news comes true, it will be a major positive for the market, and ETF funds will pour in, further driving up the market value.
In addition, the news of the US dollar interest rate cut has also spread in the market. Although it has not been officially announced, many small and medium-sized banks in the United States have made preparations for the interest rate cut in advance. The interest rate cut means that funds will flood into the market like a flood. Among them, high-quality assets will become a hot spot for funds to chase, and the Bitcoin market has attracted much attention.
In such a market environment, ETH, as a leader in digital currency, is worth looking forward to its future performance. Although there are some pessimistic voices in the market at present, the main funds are still secretly laying out, waiting for the right time to raise the ETH/BTC exchange rate in one fell swoop. The market is always full of variables. Without the manipulation of the main force, it is difficult to form a large fluctuation, and fluctuation is the source of profit.
Want to know more about the dynamics and cutting-edge information of the currency circle? You might as well pay attention to Tianmeng. We publish market analysis every day and recommend high-quality potential currencies for you to help you grasp the pulse of the market and realize wealth appreciation. $BTC $ETH
In addition, the news of the US dollar interest rate cut has also spread in the market. Although it has not been officially announced, many small and medium-sized banks in the United States have made preparations for the interest rate cut in advance. The interest rate cut means that funds will flood into the market like a flood. Among them, high-quality assets will become a hot spot for funds to chase, and the Bitcoin market has attracted much attention.
In such a market environment, ETH, as a leader in digital currency, is worth looking forward to its future performance. Although there are some pessimistic voices in the market at present, the main funds are still secretly laying out, waiting for the right time to raise the ETH/BTC exchange rate in one fell swoop. The market is always full of variables. Without the manipulation of the main force, it is difficult to form a large fluctuation, and fluctuation is the source of profit.
Want to know more about the dynamics and cutting-edge information of the currency circle? You might as well pay attention to Tianmeng. We publish market analysis every day and recommend high-quality potential currencies for you to help you grasp the pulse of the market and realize wealth appreciation. $BTC $ETH
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Blockchain Thinking Phased Market Analysis
Recently, as Bitcoin (BTC) has successfully broken through and maintained high volatility, while many altcoins have generally fallen, the market atmosphere seems quite dull, making many investors anxious. Here, I would like to share with you my recent observations and thoughts.
Recently, the helicopter carrying the Iranian president had an unfortunate hard landing, and the specific circumstances are still unclear. At the time of the accident, Iran was experiencing heavy fog and extremely low visibility, which undoubtedly increased the possibility of the accident. However, there are endless speculations about this incident on the Internet, and some people even suspect that there are shadows of Israeli and American intelligence agencies behind it. After all, during Trump's administration, he once commanded drones to carry out air strikes on Iranian military leader Soleimani. Whether this incident was an accident or a human plan, it undoubtedly brought tension to Iran, and this fluctuation in national sentiment is likely to affect the decision-making of the country's top leaders.
Recently, the helicopter carrying the Iranian president had an unfortunate hard landing, and the specific circumstances are still unclear. At the time of the accident, Iran was experiencing heavy fog and extremely low visibility, which undoubtedly increased the possibility of the accident. However, there are endless speculations about this incident on the Internet, and some people even suspect that there are shadows of Israeli and American intelligence agencies behind it. After all, during Trump's administration, he once commanded drones to carry out air strikes on Iranian military leader Soleimani. Whether this incident was an accident or a human plan, it undoubtedly brought tension to Iran, and this fluctuation in national sentiment is likely to affect the decision-making of the country's top leaders.
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$PEPE Today, Meme coins are widely recognized, but don't invest blindly. Meme coins may increase tenfold or a hundredfold when they rise, but once they collapse, they are likely to be the first to return to zero.
Among the old Meme coins, DOGE and SHIB are worth considering; among the newcomers, PEPE and FLOKI have great potential.
In addition, I personally like WIF, although it may be questioned, please be patient and time will prove everything. $BTC
Among the old Meme coins, DOGE and SHIB are worth considering; among the newcomers, PEPE and FLOKI have great potential.
In addition, I personally like WIF, although it may be questioned, please be patient and time will prove everything. $BTC
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I will give another speech tonight at 8:30.
There are three possible trends in inflation:
First, if it rises beyond expectations, the market may fall briefly, but the decline will be limited. It may fall rapidly by 10% and then gradually stabilize;
Second, if it meets expectations, the market is expected to rise sharply, and the increase may reach 5%;
Third, if it falls beyond expectations, it will trigger a surge in the market, and expectations for interest rate cuts in July and September are strong, and a bull market is gradually emerging. $BTC $ETH $BNB
There are three possible trends in inflation:
First, if it rises beyond expectations, the market may fall briefly, but the decline will be limited. It may fall rapidly by 10% and then gradually stabilize;
Second, if it meets expectations, the market is expected to rise sharply, and the increase may reach 5%;
Third, if it falls beyond expectations, it will trigger a surge in the market, and expectations for interest rate cuts in July and September are strong, and a bull market is gradually emerging. $BTC $ETH $BNB
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Bitcoin failed to successfully hit the 64,500 mark yesterday, and the one-hour rebound trend has ended. It is currently in the one-hour level callback stage, focusing on the 62,000 point. As long as it does not fall below, the market will remain stable.
It is expected that this callback will be completed today and the third wave of one-hour rebound will start.
In general, it is likely to hold 62,000 today. Even if it falls below, it is expected to stabilize around 60,000. I have mentioned many times before that a moderate callback to around 60,000 will help stabilize the market pattern, so there is no need to worry too much.
If it really pulls back to 60,000, the shock time may be extended. For the subsequent rebound, I firmly believe that it will break through the pressure level of 64,000 and challenge the new high of 67,000.
It is expected that this callback will be completed today and the third wave of one-hour rebound will start.
In general, it is likely to hold 62,000 today. Even if it falls below, it is expected to stabilize around 60,000. I have mentioned many times before that a moderate callback to around 60,000 will help stabilize the market pattern, so there is no need to worry too much.
If it really pulls back to 60,000, the shock time may be extended. For the subsequent rebound, I firmly believe that it will break through the pressure level of 64,000 and challenge the new high of 67,000.
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Control your emotions and become a leader in the cryptocurrency world.
A compulsory course for cryptocurrency trading
1. Don't sell impulsively at highs, don't blindly buy at lows, and don't trade easily during consolidation. Choose the time to buy at the negative line, and choose the positive line to sell. Going upstream shows the true qualities of a hero. In the face of market fluctuations, you need to be patient, consolidate at highs and then rush higher, seize the opportunity to act decisively, and when the lows consolidate and hit new lows, it is the right time to buy all positions.
The second golden rule of cryptocurrency trading: Buy bravely when the market plummets in the morning, and sell decisively when it rises sharply. Don't blindly chase high prices when it rises sharply in the afternoon, and wait until the next day to buy when it plummets sharply. Don't sell easily when it plummets sharply in the morning, and rest assured when the market is stable.
1. Don't sell impulsively at highs, don't blindly buy at lows, and don't trade easily during consolidation. Choose the time to buy at the negative line, and choose the positive line to sell. Going upstream shows the true qualities of a hero. In the face of market fluctuations, you need to be patient, consolidate at highs and then rush higher, seize the opportunity to act decisively, and when the lows consolidate and hit new lows, it is the right time to buy all positions.
The second golden rule of cryptocurrency trading: Buy bravely when the market plummets in the morning, and sell decisively when it rises sharply. Don't blindly chase high prices when it rises sharply in the afternoon, and wait until the next day to buy when it plummets sharply. Don't sell easily when it plummets sharply in the morning, and rest assured when the market is stable.
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The retracement adjustment of Bitcoin is usually between 20% and 30%, that is, it is reasonable to bottom out in the range of 59,000 to 48,000.
The previous price increase has been considerable, shouldn't there be some adjustment? Although there is some rebound at present, it is only temporary, and the market will eventually return to stability.
It is a normal market phenomenon that the weekly line has five consecutive negative lines and occasionally positive lines.
At the same time, 10 ETFs are slowly outflowing funds, and the market seems a little weak. I tend to adopt a low-buy strategy and wait for a clear bottoming signal.
Whether it is an accelerated decline or a long-term bottom shock, it usually takes about three months to adjust from the highest point of Bitcoin. Please be patient, time will reveal the answer.
Of course, if you think the market is about to enter a bear market, it is a wise choice to leave in time.
Just be responsible for your own investment decisions. I firmly believe that the main upward wave of the bull market has not yet arrived, and it is expected to gradually recover in June and July.
Therefore, it is recommended to prepare funds in advance and build positions in batches when prices fall. This will be a wise choice.
The previous price increase has been considerable, shouldn't there be some adjustment? Although there is some rebound at present, it is only temporary, and the market will eventually return to stability.
It is a normal market phenomenon that the weekly line has five consecutive negative lines and occasionally positive lines.
At the same time, 10 ETFs are slowly outflowing funds, and the market seems a little weak. I tend to adopt a low-buy strategy and wait for a clear bottoming signal.
Whether it is an accelerated decline or a long-term bottom shock, it usually takes about three months to adjust from the highest point of Bitcoin. Please be patient, time will reveal the answer.
Of course, if you think the market is about to enter a bear market, it is a wise choice to leave in time.
Just be responsible for your own investment decisions. I firmly believe that the main upward wave of the bull market has not yet arrived, and it is expected to gradually recover in June and July.
Therefore, it is recommended to prepare funds in advance and build positions in batches when prices fall. This will be a wise choice.
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A letter from the banker to the leeks!
If you want to rebound early,
What you want now
What you have to do is give up the chips in your hands.
Let me acquire enough chips.
You guys are dreaming of me while I'm collecting chips
Rob, sorry, I will use the chips I received
The code is suppressed again so that you can't see it
Until you hand over your chips.
You hand over all your chips and I will increase the volume
Lift,
This is to tell you that I am going to go long, no
I'm telling you to buy. If you buy now
If I lose the profit, I will suppress it again.
You can only buy when there is a breakthrough in volume.
Cooperate with me to go long. When I want to sell
What you want now
What you have to do is give up the chips in your hands.
Let me acquire enough chips.
You guys are dreaming of me while I'm collecting chips
Rob, sorry, I will use the chips I received
The code is suppressed again so that you can't see it
Until you hand over your chips.
You hand over all your chips and I will increase the volume
Lift,
This is to tell you that I am going to go long, no
I'm telling you to buy. If you buy now
If I lose the profit, I will suppress it again.
You can only buy when there is a breakthrough in volume.
Cooperate with me to go long. When I want to sell
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There is no shortage of opportunities in the market; what is truly scarce is firm patience.
As people often say, those who know how to buy can only be considered entry-level disciples, while those who truly know how to sell can be considered masters. If one can wait and hold empty positions, then he is simply a ancestor-level existence.
At present, the situation of the pie is clear, and it has fallen below the key position. In this situation, it is recommended to abandon the long-term thinking. Instead, it may be wiser to find a suitable rebound point to short. Especially when approaching the key point of 59800, set a good stop loss, and shorting may bring you good returns.
A hunter who is good at hunting always knows how to wait for the best time. If you hold spot, fixed investment is undoubtedly the most reliable strategy. With the large-scale unlocking of currencies such as dydx, op, and meme this month, the liquidity pressure of U.S. Treasury bonds has become increasingly apparent this year. In particular, in 2024, up to $8.9 trillion of U.S. Treasury bonds will mature, and the U.S. Treasury will face more than $10 trillion in Treasury bond auctions.
At present, the situation of the pie is clear, and it has fallen below the key position. In this situation, it is recommended to abandon the long-term thinking. Instead, it may be wiser to find a suitable rebound point to short. Especially when approaching the key point of 59800, set a good stop loss, and shorting may bring you good returns.
A hunter who is good at hunting always knows how to wait for the best time. If you hold spot, fixed investment is undoubtedly the most reliable strategy. With the large-scale unlocking of currencies such as dydx, op, and meme this month, the liquidity pressure of U.S. Treasury bonds has become increasingly apparent this year. In particular, in 2024, up to $8.9 trillion of U.S. Treasury bonds will mature, and the U.S. Treasury will face more than $10 trillion in Treasury bond auctions.
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Another leek has stepped onto the rooftop!
As the early morning bell was about to ring, the Fed's interest rate decision came as expected. As I had predicted in the group, gold, US stocks and the cryptocurrency market all showed a strong rebound. Faced with the inflationary pressure in the United States, the Fed chose to keep interest rates stable, which undoubtedly brought a little comfort to the market.
However, the three consecutive declines of the big cake and the second cake, with a drop of an astonishing 13%, seem to have foreshadowed the market trend in advance. At this moment, they are experiencing a volatile market with a high and a low, which has injected confidence into the spot holders and also increased the market activity. Despite the market situation, my personal view is still bearish.
However, the three consecutive declines of the big cake and the second cake, with a drop of an astonishing 13%, seem to have foreshadowed the market trend in advance. At this moment, they are experiencing a volatile market with a high and a low, which has injected confidence into the spot holders and also increased the market activity. Despite the market situation, my personal view is still bearish.
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5.2 In-depth analysis of market conditions
Yesterday, the market experienced a frustrating decline. US spot ETF funds outflow exceeded $500 million, setting a new record. However, as we expected, the market began to rebound gradually after Powell's speech.
Regarding the Fed's interest rate decision last night, Powell's speech has the following key information: First, unless the inflation rate moves towards the 2% target, no rate cut will be considered. Second, he hinted that the next meeting is unlikely to raise interest rates, which is good news for the market because once the rate is raised, BTC may fall another 10%. Finally, regarding the timing of the rate cut, Powell said that unexpected weakness in the labor market may be one of the factors that prompted the Fed to cut interest rates. The Fed will only consider cutting interest rates if the unemployment rate rises by more than 0.2% (currently 3.8%).
Regarding the Fed's interest rate decision last night, Powell's speech has the following key information: First, unless the inflation rate moves towards the 2% target, no rate cut will be considered. Second, he hinted that the next meeting is unlikely to raise interest rates, which is good news for the market because once the rate is raised, BTC may fall another 10%. Finally, regarding the timing of the rate cut, Powell said that unexpected weakness in the labor market may be one of the factors that prompted the Fed to cut interest rates. The Fed will only consider cutting interest rates if the unemployment rate rises by more than 0.2% (currently 3.8%).
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BTC, risk death and then rebirth!
Based on the current market trends, it is expected that BTC and ETH may continue to fall in the next two weeks.
The specific extent of the decline is difficult to predict, but I think Bitcoin may fall to around 5, and in extreme cases may reach 4.
However, at this time, I choose to enter the altcoin market because many altcoins have bottomed out and have limited room for decline.
An investment today may bring unexpected rewards at some point in the future, just like a seed that blooms quietly without anyone noticing. $BTC $ETH $BNB #5月市场关键事件 #BTC下跌分析
The specific extent of the decline is difficult to predict, but I think Bitcoin may fall to around 5, and in extreme cases may reach 4.
However, at this time, I choose to enter the altcoin market because many altcoins have bottomed out and have limited room for decline.
An investment today may bring unexpected rewards at some point in the future, just like a seed that blooms quietly without anyone noticing. $BTC $ETH $BNB #5月市场关键事件 #BTC下跌分析
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#5月市场关键事件 #美联储利率决议即将公布 Mr. Bao's remarks tonight reveal the future direction of monetary policy. First, regarding interest rate cuts, we should not expect too much, considering that the inflation rate has not yet fallen below 2%. Based on the situation in the first quarter, the possibility of a rate cut at the end of the year that was previously predicted has been greatly reduced, and even the election results are unlikely to change this situation.
Second, regarding interest rate hikes, if the inflation rate exceeds 4% (although it is still fluctuating in the range of 2%-3%), or if inflation is not effectively reduced for a long time, then a rate hike strategy may be put on the agenda. However, the Fed is currently confident in the existing data, so Mr. Bao made it clear that the next interest rate policy adjustment is unlikely to be a rate hike.
Furthermore, regarding the maintenance of interest rates, Mr. Bao believes that unless there is a major change in the data, the interest rate policy will remain relatively stable. But if the inflation data remains unchanged for a long time, then the Fed may be more inclined to take interest rate hikes.
In general, the adjustment of interest rate policy will mainly depend on changes in data. Rate hikes or cuts are unlikely to be achieved in the short term, but in the long run, we may see policy changes around 2025. If inflation still fails to fall below the key 2% target, the possibility of a rate hike remains.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
Second, regarding interest rate hikes, if the inflation rate exceeds 4% (although it is still fluctuating in the range of 2%-3%), or if inflation is not effectively reduced for a long time, then a rate hike strategy may be put on the agenda. However, the Fed is currently confident in the existing data, so Mr. Bao made it clear that the next interest rate policy adjustment is unlikely to be a rate hike.
Furthermore, regarding the maintenance of interest rates, Mr. Bao believes that unless there is a major change in the data, the interest rate policy will remain relatively stable. But if the inflation data remains unchanged for a long time, then the Fed may be more inclined to take interest rate hikes.
In general, the adjustment of interest rate policy will mainly depend on changes in data. Rate hikes or cuts are unlikely to be achieved in the short term, but in the long run, we may see policy changes around 2025. If inflation still fails to fall below the key 2% target, the possibility of a rate hike remains.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
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Is this the final trough of the market? My answer is for reference only, please do not be too rigid. At present, it is highly unlikely, and it may not even be close to the edge of the final trough.
This is not to say how much the market will fall, or to what point it will fall, but to say that the current situation is far from the worst situation, and in fact it is still quite far from the worst result.
Why? Because the expectation of interest rate cuts is still far away, we have not yet seen a channel for inflation to steadily decline. At present, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts has dropped from three times in the dot plot to two times, and even more pessimistic expectations are one interest rate cut.
In this case, the risk of economic collapse is increasing. Even if it does not collapse, many investors are afraid to invest boldly due to concerns about economic problems.
This is not to say how much the market will fall, or to what point it will fall, but to say that the current situation is far from the worst situation, and in fact it is still quite far from the worst result.
Why? Because the expectation of interest rate cuts is still far away, we have not yet seen a channel for inflation to steadily decline. At present, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts has dropped from three times in the dot plot to two times, and even more pessimistic expectations are one interest rate cut.
In this case, the risk of economic collapse is increasing. Even if it does not collapse, many investors are afraid to invest boldly due to concerns about economic problems.
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I firmly believe that the price of Bitcoin will fluctuate around 57,000. This position seems to be a key support point. If it continues to fall, it may hit the range of 52,000 to 49,000. But from the daily chart, 57,000 is likely to be a short-term bottom. It is expected to fluctuate here for a few days before trying to fall again, and it may be accompanied by a rebound. As for Ethereum, although it failed to fall below the previous low of 2,880, and it is possible to rebound to the range of 2,950 to 3,000 tonight, forming a double bottom rebound pattern, I still have reservations about its gains. $BTC $SOL #5月市场关键事件
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I guess it may be that domestic futures investors have begun to enter the market in large numbers. The recent market trend is extremely fierce, and they are not afraid of the impact of good news. According to Coinglass data, in the past 24 hours, the total amount of liquidation in the entire network reached 112 million US dollars, of which long positions were liquidated for 91.4937 million US dollars and short positions were liquidated for 20.2029 million US dollars. This situation is shocking, and it also forces us to re-examine the risks and opportunities of the market. #5月市场关键事件 $BTC $ETH
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Can Bitcoin hold its key position? What will happen next?
If the price of Bitcoin reaches 59,200, you need to pay close attention to the key point of 59. If you plan to get involved in the copycat spot market, you can give it a try, but you need to make clear the conditions: you can only try with a light position, and you need to be mentally prepared to withstand a 20-50% drop. Otherwise, you may encounter a liquidation at 59 or 51. The recent market seems to show a pattern of rising early and falling late. However, to gain a foothold in the market, you must not only have a flexible strategy, but also have the courage to face risks. After the halving, the market will gradually resume the real-time point issuance, bringing new opportunities to the spot market. After May Day, there may be a wave of market conditions, but you must act cautiously to ensure that you can survive steadily.
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Master these key points to stay on top of the cryptocurrency world.
1. Be wary of bubbles in popular coins: In a bull market, those hot coins may experience astonishing gains in the short term, but once the market trend changes, they may also fall quickly.
2. Discover the treasure of potential coins: Really valuable cryptocurrencies are often hidden from the public eye. They may be unknown for the time being, but they may bring you rich returns in the future.
3. Accept the ups and downs of the market: The cryptocurrency market is volatile, with ups and downs. Don't expect to get rich overnight, and don't panic over a small pullback.
4. See through the tricks of altcoins: Many altcoins are controlled by market makers, who often deceive investors by means of market crashes and price hikes. Stay vigilant and avoid being fooled.
2. Discover the treasure of potential coins: Really valuable cryptocurrencies are often hidden from the public eye. They may be unknown for the time being, but they may bring you rich returns in the future.
3. Accept the ups and downs of the market: The cryptocurrency market is volatile, with ups and downs. Don't expect to get rich overnight, and don't panic over a small pullback.
4. See through the tricks of altcoins: Many altcoins are controlled by market makers, who often deceive investors by means of market crashes and price hikes. Stay vigilant and avoid being fooled.