Currently, ETH has support at 1980, but the rebound trend remains weak. Tomorrow is the weekend and it's almost the end of the month. Today, it is expected to touch the bottom at 1920-1870.
After touching the bottom, the weekend may see a rebound to 1900+, so next month could be bullish. Otherwise, it will continue to explore down to 1800-1600, even 1500#美国加密法案再次遇阻 #美伊和谈陷僵局 .
Now around 2050, nearly 70m USD bulls will face liquidation. Just now, the first wave at 2061 was held off by a few points. There is less than an hour until the latest unemployment claims will be released. From a geopolitical perspective, the data should be bearish. But in the current market, it will be bullish.
Yesterday, the pillar reached 2200, which seemed very strong, but from the market logic perspective, this is a typical trap. Today during the day, ETH fell to around 2130, after consolidating, it is now at 2170 in the evening facing resistance. Currently, there are sell orders at 2188/2230 above. So as long as it doesn't stabilize above 2200, it will come down the same way it went up this week.
【In-depth Analysis】ETH Breaks Through 2300 Level: Is It a Trap or the Start of a Major Uptrend? 1. Market Review: A Month-Long Consolidation Since the market tested around 1730 during the Spring Festival, ETH has entered an extremely tedious 'grinding' phase. It has undergone a month-long sideways consolidation around the 1800 level, which not only represents a handover of positions but also wears down the will of retail investors. • Range Span: This 500-point wide fluctuation from 1800 to 2300 is essentially building a solid bottom formation. • BTC Correlation: Currently, BTC has reached the critical historical resistance level of 74400, which resonates strongly with ETH's 2300 level. 2. On-chain Data and Binance Indicator Analysis 1. Short Liquidation: Binance contract data shows that with these two peaks at 2300, the previous concentrated short positions around 2200-2250 have been 'liquidated almost entirely'. Currently, the resistance on the chart has weakened, and short momentum has shown a gap. 2. Whale Movement: Observing on-chain data, there have been several large amounts of ETH withdrawn from exchanges to cold wallets recently, and well-known whales like 0x15a4 have shifted from perpetual contracts to spot accumulation, with an average cost around 2058. This indicates that institutions and large holders have a very clear medium-term expectation of 2500+. 3. Funding Rate: The current rate remains in a healthy range and has not shown extreme bullish overheating, indicating that the current breakout has significant substance. 3. Key Path Evolution (Strategy Reference) Today, ETH made two peaks breaking through 2300, demonstrating the strong offensive desire of the bulls. Tonight's operations need to focus on the following two scenarios: • Scenario A: Healthy Pullback (Continuation of Bulls) If tonight's pullback does not drop below the 2200 support, it belongs to the typical 'break and pullback confirmation'. After consolidation, it will directly initiate the second sprint, targeting the area of 2500 - 2588. • Scenario B: False Breakout Trap (Extreme Liquidation) If it falls back to around 2230 and slightly resists, then later rebounds to 2350 but fails to stabilize and turns back down, one should be wary of a deep pullback test. Look for support in the 2050 - 1950 range. Note: This deep pullback is intended to clear the last floating positions, without changing the larger trend looking up to 2500+ this month.
Is it a breakthrough to continue shorting online at 2200, or will 2200 deceive and drop down to 1700-1600 to continue the rally? Summary of this month's large range 2500-1700 or 2700-2000$
Let's leave it at this for now. The general direction is upward pressure at 2130-50, and if it breaks, we will continue to go long. On the downside, there is too much congestion around 1900-1850.
Moreover, it has already fallen for 8 months. From 4900 down to 1700, it has dropped about 3200 points.
Although it's 10 points short, I went to bed early yesterday. This morning, I originally wanted to reduce my position, but I pressed the wrong button. Do you think I exited too early? Is there still a chance to go down and re-enter today?
1. Market Review: The 'flash crash' triggered by geopolitical events
Today is the last day of February, and the sudden tension in global geopolitical situations (such as the escalation in the Middle East) became the 'last straw' that broke the market. Panic emotions triggered a short-term leveraged cascade:
• BTC (Bitcoin): Instantaneously dropped to the 63,000 mark, testing the most critical psychological support this month.
• ETH (Ethereum): Showed even more volatility, directly plunging to around 1,830, and from the chart, this forms a clear 'double bottom' pattern compared to the lows in mid-month.
2070-2080 emptied greedily Just now a needle 2080-2030, at 40-30 I wanted to sell and think about entering the market again, but now it seems there's no opportunity. If it doesn't drop below 2000 and comes back up, 2080 might be a bit low to enter again.