起点研社

Today's core focus is on the impact of the US PCE data at 9:30 PM on market sentiment.

The current market faces multiple risk resonances: macroeconomic uncertainty (the US PCE data may delay rate cut expectations), critical technical levels about to be breached (if BTC falls below $80,000, it may trigger a sell-off), signs of institutional capital withdrawal (continuous high net outflows from ETFs), and high-leverage derivative risks (concentrated long positions may lead to a cascade effect). The vulnerability of market sentiment has significantly increased, and we must be wary of extreme volatility under liquidity tightening.

The significant decline in the cryptocurrency market in recent days is the result of multiple factors working together, mainly including: an increase in global economic uncertainty, particularly the pressure on risk assets caused by Trump's 2.0 tariff policy, which, combined with the renewed cooling of expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve due to the tariff policy, has led to a sharp tightening of market liquidity; over the past week, over $2 billion has been continuously withdrawn from the Bitcoin ETF, leading to a substantial decline in investor confidence; the vicious cycle of 'panic-selling-leverage liquidation' has exacerbated the market decline; the widespread use of high-leverage trading has forced liquidations (sales) during price declines, further amplifying the drop; in addition, recent malicious actions by various celebrities issuing coins to exploit investors have led to a decline in the enthusiasm for the ME market and accelerated capital outflow. Currently, everyone should remain cautious and avoid blindly bottom-fishing in the short term, focusing on risk aversion.

Currently, a bearish trend is gradually forming in the market. Be cautious as BTC tests the key psychological level of $85,000; if it falls below this, it may trigger a new round of sell-offs.
Bulls can pay attention to the reversal of ETF capital flows and the bottoming signals from the panic index rebound.
Risk Warning: Recent focus is on risk aversion, with the risks of leveraged contracts increasing; it is recommended to reduce positions to avoid extreme fluctuations.
Macro Aspect: Pay attention to the impact of Friday's US PCE data on market sentiment.

Sorry, I forgot. The article about PCE was not posted in the square, it was sent to the public account instead.

The market has fallen as expected. If there are fans who have been following our articles, they should know that we have been reminding everyone not to engage in long positions since last week. Currently, market liquidity is tightening, and there will certainly be a significant correction. In today's morning report, we also informed everyone that the current market trend is risk-averse, and it is better not to participate. Currently, Bitcoin has broken the consolidation range of nearly three months, and the bearish trend has already begun. The only variable now is the PCE data coming out on Friday night.

As for the importance of the PCE data, you can refer to yesterday's article.

From a technical perspective, it is recommended to pay close attention to the key level of $BTC 8 million. This position is the most important support level in recent times and is a critical point contested by both bulls and bears. If this range is effectively broken, it may trigger greater selling pressure, and the price may have to return to the early stages of the bull market.

Current short-term risks: Big Cake #etf funds continue to flow out, liquidity tightens, SOL unlocks a huge amount, and futures basis narrows.
Under the triple pressure, the market will continue the correction trend.
Long-term narrative: Micro Strategy and major mining companies continue to hoard coins, Trump's policy platform, and the Fed's upcoming end of QT are still the foundation of the bull market.
Operational suggestions: Short-term risk aversion is the main focus, pay attention to the range of 80,000 to 85,000
Mid-term low-level layout of $BTC , $ETH , $SOL and other products.
Ether should be highlighted.

Many bloggers in the industry often use small-scale events and technical indicators to predict the bull and bear markets of crypto assets, but they ignore a key point: the trends in financial markets are driven by liquidity, which is controlled by macroeconomic policies. The bull and bear transitions in the crypto market from 2020 to 2023 are solid evidence of this. In the last cycle, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy dominated the market direction, while small-scale events only affected short-term K-line slopes.
The beginning of the bull market was fueled by the Federal Reserve's QE:
In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic impacted the global economy, causing stock markets to plummet and unemployment rates to soar. Bitcoin fell over 65% from its high at the beginning of the year, dropping to $3,500. To rescue the market, the Federal Reserve urgently cut interest rates by 50 basis points on March 3, followed by another cut of 100 basis points on the 15th, and restarted quantitative easing, planning to purchase $700 billion in government bonds and mortgage-backed securities. By the end of March, it announced unlimited quantitative easing, reversing market expectations, and within a month, the price soared from $3,500 to $8,000.
Under ultra-low interest rates, the yields on traditional assets were compressed, leading funds to flow into crypto assets, with Bitcoin being seen as an 'anti-inflation' tool. At the same time, emerging fields such as DeFi and NFTs surged, attracting a lot of new capital, and traditional financial institutions began to include Bitcoin on their balance sheets. Driven by multiple factors, Bitcoin's price skyrocketed from the March 2020 low to a high of $68,000 in November 2021.
However, the Federal Reserve's large-scale asset purchases from 2020 to 2022 led to uncontrollable inflation, with the U.S. inflation index rising to 7% in 2022, a 40-year high. The Federal Reserve had to adjust its monetary policy, releasing hawkish signals at the end of 2021, indicating the start of interest rate hikes and the end of QE in 2022. Market panic led to liquidations, and risk assets like Bitcoin were sold off, with prices significantly retracing from their peaks.
In March 2022, the Federal Reserve officially ended QE and started raising interest rates, increasing the benchmark rate by 25 basis points, causing Bitcoin's price to quickly drop below $45,000. In May, it raised rates by 50 basis points, and Bitcoin fell below $30,000. In June, with a 75 basis point hike, Bitcoin plummeted to around $17,000, with the total market capitalization of the crypto market evaporating by over 80%, marking the arrival of a super bear market.
It is evident that the long-term fluctuations in financial markets are rooted in changes in macroeconomic policy. Global central bank monetary policies determine the general direction of the market by affecting market liquidity. Currently, the crypto market is still influenced by macroeconomic factors. If you want to understand the impact of this round of interest rate cuts on Bitcoin prices, or whether $BTC can reach a new high, feel free to follow, and I will personally help you clarify.

The ETF funds of Dabing $BTC have been flowing out in large amounts for many consecutive days, and today it has reached 360 million US dollars. If the market does not stimulate positive factors, it may start a short trend and plunder liquidity downward.

Today, let's talk about why π (#pi ) coin cannot be traded after it is launched.
When the next door announced the listing on the 12th, the grandpas and aunts were so excited. After signing up for so many years, they could finally cash out and make a fortune.
But the reality is cruel. On the 14th, the next door added another conditional description. It will restrict users in some regions from participating in the transaction. To put it bluntly, it is to restrict our mainland.
As for why this conditional description was added later? I think it is likely that they felt the pressure from the top.
I believe everyone knows the characteristics of this project. The public security in many places has clearly regulated it as a fraud project.
And the user volume of the next door in China is very high. Before the overall policy is clear, it will not take this risk to touch the red line of the top. But you can't just look at this big IP and not participate. After all, in addition to the fan volume of our mainland, pi also has a very high volume abroad. As a second choice, we can only come up with this isolation measure. I think if our mainland users want to cash out in the end, they can only implement = self-production and self-sales. (Off-site) cut each other

Everyone has their own insights and perspectives on things. If the blogger's views have caused you any distress, I sincerely apologize.

Six points that newbies in the cryptocurrency circle must know

1. Don’t invest in Chinese or Chinese-owned platforms. 99.9999% of them are scammers. As long as you see that the founder or founding team of this coin is Chinese, run away immediately. If you see Xue Manzi, Sun Yuchen, VT, Xia Xueyi... these people are pushing a coin, just run away. Of course, the safest way is to block these big scammers above

2. Don’t trust Chinese kols in the cryptocurrency circle. 99.9999% of them are sickles. If you see them pushing a coin, just run away. Of course, it is best to block them in advance

3. Configuration is to do a good job of stratification, with mainstream accounting for 50-60%, value coins accounting for 20-30%, and new projects accounting for a little. Reasonable positions can protect your mentality.

4. Emotions. First of all, people with good emotions cannot be in debt, cannot have no cash flow, cannot have nothing to do, cannot look at coins every day, care about coins, and not care about other things. Then people with bad emotions who are anxious to get rich may sell when the price rises and sell when it falls.

5. Good expectations: How much do you expect to earn in a bull market? Don't be unrealistic. It is reasonable to earn 5-10 times in a bull market. If you want to earn 100 times or 1,000 times, this can only be achieved when you are close to the state of "forgetting it". But if you buy a large number of stocks, you are destined to dream about it.

6. When it is time to "take action", "take action" and know how to build and exit warehouses. Collect grain in time when the harvest is good, harvest in autumn and store in winter, and wait for the bear market next year to continue sowing and wait for the next cycle

Why are you still losing money in the bull market?

1. Be timid during the rising period of the market, and strike hard during the falling period

2. Don’t dare to buy the currency you are optimistic about when it rises. After it rises to a point where you don’t believe it, you will be heavily invested or even fully invested after a negative line, and continue to pull back, and then leave a message: What’s wrong?

3. The currency you bought does not rise, and you watch the neighbor Lao Wang rise every day. Finally one day you can’t bear it anymore, and you cut off your own knife and turn to Lao Wang. As a result, because of your purchase, the original soaring trend has come to an abrupt end, and it has turned sharply downward and fallen rapidly.

4. The coins you sell are all slaps in the face. After selling, they continue to rise. Finally, you have learned the pattern, and then the pattern of tickets has become "Flying down three thousand feet, it is suspected that the Milky Way falls from the sky"

5. Once the rhythm is wrong, one step is wrong, and every step is wrong. If you have cut your computing power due to shocks before, it will be difficult to step on the rhythm later, just like being poisoned and continuing to spread.

6. The bull market amplifies the money-making effect of the market, and also amplifies people's anxiety, all kinds of dissatisfaction and resentment, but the market is specialized in treating all kinds of dissatisfaction

7. Mistakenly taking occasional money-making as one's own ability, the tolerance rate is high, so the winning rate is high. In the end, the money earned by luck will be lost by strength.

8. Whenever you want to do something big, you will be done big by the market.

$BTC $ETH $SOL

BTC night operation strategy

After BTC fell below the support of 68200, it is currently in a volatile repair market. In the 1-hour trend chart, everyone should first pay attention to the trend support near 65500. It is recommended to go long in the range of 65500-65800 at night. Pay attention to the suppression near 68200 above, and pay attention to the suppression near the high point of 67200 in the short term. After the plunge, everyone should be cautious about chasing shorts at low levels.
In terms of operation, as long as everyone finds the support and suppression levels, and holds the orders with a good attitude, profits are within reach!