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#BTC #ETH

Large Pancake and Small Pancake Multi-Cycle Structural Deduction

【BTC 1-Hour Tactical Path】
1. Structure Confirmation:
- The 1-hour retracement segment that started from 92810 has completed three 15-minute structures (corresponding to the 1-hour trend type in Chan Theory), currently at the end of the fourth 1-hour downward segment.
- Key Verification Point: If it breaks through 87000, it confirms the initiation of the fifth 1-hour upward segment; if hindered, it will retrace to 84500 to build a center of gravity.

2. Attack and Defense Thresholds:
- Bullish Bottom Line: 81500 (lower edge of the center of gravity), if broken, daily retracement risk escalates to 78000;
- Rebound Target: 95000 (theoretical value of the segment moving away from the center of gravity) → 98000 (daily type pressure).

3. Weekend Time Window:
- Scenario 1 (Bullish): After holding 81500, initiate a 1-hour rebound, on Sunday to Monday attacking 90000→95500;
- Scenario 2 (Consolidation): Build a 15-minute center of gravity between 84500-87000, gather strength to choose a direction.

【ETH 4-Hour Rebound Process】
1. Structure Positioning:
- Confirmed a 4-hour second buy from the low of 1993 (the 1-hour retracement segment ends above 2100), currently initiating a 4-hour upward segment.
- Target Levels:
- Basic Target 2400-2550 (previous center of gravity pressure area);
- Extended Target 2750 (daily level measured increase).

2. Operation Anchoring:
- Increased Position Signal: Stabilization near 2150 (15-minute bottom division);
- Risk Control Bottom Line: 2050 (second buy invalidation threshold).

【Multi-Cycle Joint Strategy】
- Weekly: Continuation of the upward segment starting from 49000, ultimate target 150000+ (not bearish until 74000 is broken);
- Daily: 109588→78258 daily retracement segment awaits breakthrough of 98000 to confirm termination;
- 4-Hour: The rebound segment starting from the low of 78258 targets 95000+, must stabilize above 81000 to continue.

Operational Instructions:
- BTC: Try long between 84500-86000, stop-loss at 81500, increase position upon breaking 87000;
- ETH: Gradually layout between 2150-2200, stop-loss at 2050, first target 2400.
#BTC #ETH

Sideways and Silent, Waiting for Thunder
The market for Bitcoin seems to have hit the pause button, moving lazily within a narrow range, much like a cat dozing in the summer afternoon. Many people are starting to feel anxious—does this sideways movement signal the end of the bull market? Does shrinking trading volume mean that whales are retreating?

But looking back at the history, such calm often hides the thunder: in July 2016, Bitcoin started a thousand-fold increase after 87 days of sideways trading at 650; in September 2020, the dull fluctuations around 11000 lasted for 42 days, followed by a surge to 64000 in the next six months. Data shows that 85% of Bitcoin's epic rises in the past ten years were born during the market's most lethargic moments.

The current calm is a gift of time to the awakened. Miners upgrade their equipment during the sideways period, developers refine protocols during the downturn, and smart money quietly adjusts their regular investment plans from monthly to weekly. Meanwhile, those who frequently refresh the market are compressing their future profit margins into the cents of transaction fees.

The weekend's sideways movement is like a mirror—some see boredom, some see accumulation of strength, and some see the gauge of their holding patience. The news that 200,000 Bitcoins are locked in the U.S. Strategic Reserve is currently generating a new supply-demand equation on the blockchain; perhaps the dormant spot accounts in exchanges are brewing buy orders that will break 100,000 next week.

Put down the five-minute candlestick chart, read half of 'The Bitcoin Standard,' or send a message to an old friend who failed to buy the dip three years ago. When the market is temporarily silent, true believers are doing two things: checking whether their wallet mnemonic is safely stored and practicing how to calmly close the market software on a night of soaring prices.

Remember: what the manipulators fear most is not your precise bottom-fishing but rather you looking at the heart-rate-like candlestick chart and smiling as you say—
"The weekend should be sideways, so that when the market rallies on Monday, it won't wake up those pretending to sleep."

After staying up all night, I ended up with nothing but loneliness. Ater's speech was incredibly smooth, as expected from a consistent businessman. To summarize, there were no substantial insights shared, only the statement "Never sell your Bitcoin." Regulatory policies will become more lenient in the future, but for now, there are no substantial actions, leading to a slight panic and downturn in the market.
Looking at the current structure, I initially thought the summit would disrupt the overall structure, but it hasn't deviated from my analysis last night. The 15-minute level has dipped, and we will observe the breakout direction between 84000-92500. If it breaks below 84000, it will confirm the initiation of a downward structure, and we will directly look at the range of 78200-80000. If there is an effective breakout above 92500, then a new upward momentum will begin. Since Saturday was mainly characterized by fluctuation, we can focus on short positions for short gains.
For today, I suggest a long position near 85000 for Bitcoin, aiming for 87000.
For Ethereum, look for a long position near 2100, aiming for 2180.
#BTC #白宫首届加密货币峰会 #特朗普签署行政命令

This crypto conference is giving me a headache, just chatting, bring on some solid content
#BTC #ETH

Wait for Aite to come out. Analyzing from a political standpoint, he needs to firmly support the big pie market, so personally, I am bullish, and this is for reference only.
#BTC #ETH

Strength is not something that is bragged about; the distance tests a horse's strength, and time reveals a person's heart. A new student has witnessed Brother Kai's strength for a long time before joining. The ideas provided by Early Pan led to a perfect outcome with the non-farm payroll data in the evening. The subsequent short-term downward structure analysis provided later in the evening also confirmed this, as detailed in the previous article.
In the evening, there are still several data points for everyone to patiently wait for the market to unfold. If there are any situations of being caught in a position, you can also communicate with Brother Kai.
#BTC #ETH

Strength is not something that is boasted about; time will reveal the horse's strength, and over time, one can see a person's true character. A new trainee has witnessed Kai's strength for a long time before joining. The initial ideas given by the early session led to a perfect outcome from a wave of non-farm data in the evening. The subsequent short-term downward structure analysis provided in the evening also confirmed this, see the previous article for details.
In the evening, there are still a few data points for everyone to wait patiently for the market to unfold. If there are any issues, you can also discuss with Kai.
#BTC #ETH

The hints given in the morning have smoothly risen along with the non-farm data, but there are many news items in the evening. As expected, the impact is not significant, so it's still important to pay attention to the 2:30 crypto summit. This is the main event.
#BTC #ETH #非农就业数据来袭 #特朗普签署行政命令

The last non-farm payroll of winter time, let's briefly discuss!

Today is Friday, with a big drop in the morning and a correction in the afternoon. The subsequent rhythm should belong to the fluctuation between 91500-85500!

Reference mantra: A sharp drop in the morning is not a good sign; if Europe doesn't break the bottom/top, the US will fluctuate! The watershed is the opening drop in the morning/no breaking, no standing! The market is quietly waiting for the non-farm data, as well as Powell and the arrival of Ah Te! The market is expected to experience roller coaster shocks!

The non-farm data will be released at 21:30 tonight, this is also the last non-farm employment report of winter time. The expectation for this month is 160,000, which is higher than last month's 143,000, but ADP was far below last month, at only 77,000. According to this ratio, today's non-farm data does not look optimistic.

In the morning, there was a rebound after reaching the bottom, and the technical aspect has digested the fluctuations before the data. There is basically no play today before the data.

As for relying on the data, we have to wait until after the data. The unemployment rate is 4.0%. If the unemployment rate remains unchanged, as long as the data is lower than last month's 143, it will again be favorable, and being in the middle is also acceptable. It all depends on whether we can break out a larger space!

Currently, the data is not easy to predict, as it often surprises. I suggest waiting without any positions before the data! The main issue this time with the non-farm payroll is whether the Federal Reserve will sing hawkish or dovish! The press conference of Powell tonight is highly anticipated!

After this matter, there will be the rhythm of the understanding king! It's all a big market, you know! Friends! Friday is destined to be extraordinary!

As of the time of writing, it has rebounded to 89300, from the spike low of 84600 to now there has been a considerable rebound. Let's see if it can continue to test the morning's pressure. Currently, it is still maintaining a fluctuation within the range, and the continuation of actions will not be very large. Before the data, refer to the range for back and forth!

晚间短线地狱级难度，也是行情最大的时候，能否把握住就看能否关注到最新数据和分析技术了，把握不住也可多和凯哥交流
#BTC #比特币 #ETH #非农就业数据来袭 #特朗普签署行政命令

Yesterday successfully completed the first order 90200➡️92000
Second order 92000➡️89600
Luodai around 3500, double kill with Duokong.
The morning market smoothly confirmed the emergence of a 1-hour level retracement to construct the central area of 84000-86000 mentioned yesterday. After completing the bottoming process, there will be a 1-hour level rebound, testing the pressure around 95000 above.
Within the day, it is suggested to look at the big pie around 86000 to reach 93000
For the second pie, look from 2150 to 2300
#BTC #ETH

特朗普在数字货币大会的表态将直接主导中期格局：若明确将加密货币纳入美国战略储备，比特币单日暴涨20%可期；若态度模糊，上半年上行空间恐提前终结。当前大选周期叠加政策真空期，持币待涨仍是优选策略。

【技术研判】
BTC：日线回踩87793后企稳，小时图承压92200-93500区间。站稳90000则延续中枢震荡，失守则测试86000支撑。
ETH：4小时收缩整理，2175形成短期底背驰。1小时级别KDJ/MACD多头共振，若突破2250将触发反弹测试2350压力。

核心逻辑：政策预期托底+技术面修复需求，短期以关键位高抛低吸为主
#BTC #ETH

Today's first order 90200➡️92000
Second order 92000➡️89600
Luodai around 3500 typical, double kill in the Doucon, I don't know how awesome I am, but when others tell me "Even if you die, the market will keep going," I feel that the market is just holding on. The third order is still ongoing, and the analysis provided in the evening is very clear. Doubters can keep quiet and let the facts speak for themselves
#BTC #ETH

US stocks opened lower as expected, and today the second order successfully obtained 2000 points. Brother Kai's nightly analysis can be studied in detail, and you will surely gain from it. Waiting for the follow-up situation at the key position of 89000
#BTC #ETH