Crypto子棋

The market has been gradually rising these past two days, and today the upward trend is encouraging. It turns out that MicroStrategy has increased its holdings again!

They actually added more than 20,000 coins at an average price of around 70,000, what a significant move! Buying so much at once is quite rare in history!

I am still waiting to buy at the bottom, but MicroStrategy has already jumped in. Many people are waiting for 50,000 or 40,000. Some can't wait to jump in first, so can we really expect to see BTC below 50,000?

However, generally after MicroStrategy makes a purchase, the price tends to drop a bit. What about this time? Should we chase after it? Waiting online for a response!

The current 4H level is in a typical bull exhaustion stage: the death cross of the moving average group is confirmed, and the MACD death cross is accompanied by a volume increase, with obvious short-term momentum exhausted.

Although the KDJ overselling has brought a technical rebound demand, historical patterns show that in this death cross + volume increase context, rebounds are mostly corrective in nature and difficult to trend upwards.

If this position stabilizes, it could rebound to the 72k pressure zone, but the upward momentum is limited.

If it effectively breaks below 69k, it will open up downward space, with 68k under pressure, and it is highly unlikely that there will be a significant unilateral surge towards the end of the week; the probability of breaking the previous high of 73k in the short term is low.

Unless there is a significant increase in funds (continuous large net inflows into ETFs) or an unexpected dovish shift from the Federal Reserve, the current structure does not support breaking the previous high, and the probability of range-bound fluctuations + bearish sentiment prevails.

What's going on?

Today it surged again, just now BTC broke 73K, and its recent performance is significantly stronger than the Nasdaq, with a decreasing correlation to US stocks, moving into an independently driven market.

From the recent days' trend, BTC needs a weekly level rebound; if this week closes positively, then the rebound trend will basically be stable!

On the capital front, spot ETF continues to see net inflows, and institutional allocation is stable; on-chain chips are highly locked, and selling pressure is controllable.

On the technical side, the lows are rising and the structure is healthy; after the breakout, the fluctuations are normal chip digestion. The current rise is supported by both capital and structure, with a clear trend.

Support: 71000-72000
Strong support: 70000
Resistance range: 74000-76000

Strategy: Hold positions in the direction of the trend, with key support as defense, do not blindly guess the peak; perhaps I mentioned earlier that the rebound has officially started, and it is expected to break through around 80,000...

Shanzhai is a game of speculation, it's all about who can outpace each other. Why has Shanzhai risen recently?

Because it has dropped enough.
Because Binance is going to delist junk coins in bulk.

Therefore, the dog owner panicked and seized this opportunity to pump the market, gain some heat, and harvest a wave to avoid being delisted!

Speaking of that fan's obsession with JAMSY, I can understand it as well. They always hold on to fantasies, unwilling to let go, yet time and again they are deceived and hurt, a typical scumbag tactic. In the end, they get deeper and deeper until they are completely wiped out.

Looking at this cycle, the return of altcoins has become quite clear: they can only be speculated on, not held for the long term.

I have a fan who bought $JASMY in 2021 when the price was 3U, now it's 0.005U, a drop of 600 times; the most terrifying part is that after a 99.9% drop, it still has a market value of 250 million dollars!

Don't listen to what they say about holding long-term or value investing; the essence of altcoins is gambling, not assets.

The peak of altcoin cycles keeps getting lower, and the lows are constantly probing downward, which is a trend towards slowly approaching zero.

Hoarding altcoins and holding them tightly will likely lead to deeper losses, gradually depleting the principal.

Those who can truly survive are the ones who enter and exit quickly, take profits when they can, avoid getting attached to battles or fantasizing.

Remember one thing: altcoins can be played with, but they cannot be trusted; you can make quick money, but they cannot be treated as a lifelong career; protecting your principal is more important than anything else.

It's dropped again, this market is just like this, waiting for you to be unable to resist going in, and then it will weaken!\n\nFrom 120,000 to 60,000-70,000, it's already halved\n\nEveryone wants to buy at the bottom, but when it truly drops, no one dares to buy\n\n80,000 no one dares, 70,000 no one dares, 60,000 no one dares, when it really gets to 30,000-40,000, you dare even less.\n\nChasing up at high positions, not daring to buy at low positions, this is human nature.\nDon't just talk without practice, when it really gets to a cheap price, being able to take action is the real skill.\n\nEveryone is shouting to buy at 30,000-40,000, but when it really drops to that point, 99% of people still won't dare to buy.\n\nAfraid of falling, afraid of losing, afraid of going to zero, this is human nature.\nThe real bottom has always been prepared for those who dare to take action, I'm different, if it really gets to around 40,000, I will go in without hesitation, the only thing I'm worried about is that it won't drop to 40,000!😂😂😅

Currently, BTC is around 70K, with a daily increase of 3.5-4.5%, clearly outperforming the US stock market, showing characteristics of 'US stocks providing support + independent rebound in crypto'.

Staying stable around 70K, psychological + technical support will be maintained again, as the market shifts from previous sluggishness to cautious bullishness, with sentiment recovering.

The daily line is still under pressure from the downward trend line extended from the high point of 126K (current resistance around 73K-74K), with prices consolidating in the range of 60K-74K.

Since the rebound from the low point of 62K-63K, 70K has become a short-term dividing line between bulls and bears; holding above is bullish, but overall still in a mid-term adjustment and repair phase.

At this stage, the overall range is showing a strong bias, with initial gains followed by a pullback. If supported by 70K, it is likely to test the 73K resistance area (the probability of testing recent highs is high); conversely, it may fall back to 69K for consolidation. The weekly line is likely to close with a small upper shadow or a doji star.

Support: 68K 66K
Resistance: around 73-74K

In the short term, the key is the gain or loss at 70K; a breakout above 73K could see higher levels, while falling below 69K would indicate weakness. With risk appetite warming up, BTC still has space for independent strength and a rebound demand, but do not blindly chase high prices!

This is the weekly chart, take a look at what I drew???😍😍😍

Doesn't it look very flavorful, with plenty of milk? Will it replicate the previous section? Following this rhythm, the weekly line shows signs of bottoming out, with a rounded bottom, targeting around 78,000!

The important positions above are around 72,000 and 74,000. The descending channel and blue trend line continue to exert pressure, but the support from the U-shaped curve below has started to gain strength, and currently, the bears are a bit weak while the bulls are slowly accumulating.

The main direction is still to prioritize caution and stability, buy low, don’t chase high, don’t be greedy!

This is the weekly chart of BTC since the decline, clearly showing that the second wave of decline has been completed and is currently in a phase of consolidation at the weekly level bottom.

Here it is quite confusing; if you think it’s going to rise and jump in, you will find it has dropped again, potentially entering a third wave of decline. If you don’t jump in, it may rebound more than 20%, making you miss out!

Interestingly, the rebound from 80,000 was over 20%, and the current rebound from 60,000 is also over 20%. Everything is just so coincidental!

In March, I believe the market will mainly fluctuate without significant rebounds; the overall trend is still very weak. The golden pit is bound to arrive, and BTC starting with 4 is likely to be reached. When it does, just close your eyes and invest, and for now, do nothing but engage in risk-free financial management, reserve funds, and when the opportunity arises, go big!

I have held USD1 in my account for almost two months, and I bought it at a high price!

They said there was a WLFI airdrop, so I held onto it for a long time, but after waiting left and right, I still couldn't see any returns. What's going on???

Later, I couldn't help but ask customer service and found out that only the USD1 in the spot, margin, and futures accounts have the airdrop, but the one in my wealth management account does not. It's frustrating!

Then I redeemed the USD1 and put it into the spot account, feeling like I lost billions...

The airdrop activity for this USD1 launched by Binance is indeed quite good, but I didn't get it. Sigh 😔 So from now on, I need to pay close attention to the news, otherwise, it's easy to work hard for nothing and still lose money...

From the recent 4H trend, BTC shows a tendency to raise the bottom after two dips, and the fluctuation range has returned to above 66k, showing signs of stabilizing at the bottom!

From the recent trends, it is evident that BTC, ETH, and SOL are almost synchronously moving, while ADA, XRP, and DOGE are somewhat weaker, indicating that funds are still more inclined towards stability.

Whether from the weekly or daily charts, BTC has recently continued its previous fluctuations, merely transitioning from a low fluctuation range to another, suggesting that March is likely to continue fluctuating, and after the fluctuations, a rebound may be on the horizon!

From the 4H market trend, BTC's broad fluctuations are becoming smaller, and the probability of a trend change is increasing!

The fluctuation range has narrowed from the initial 66k-71K to the current 63K-68K, with the highs moving downwards and the lows constantly testing. This is not a good sign, but recently there has been an upward trend at the bottom, and the amplitude is further narrowing. Perhaps it won't be long before it breaks out of this range!

Looking at the weekly chart, last week continued to close in the red, but it did not break below the previous low, indicating that the bears are losing strength while the bulls are accumulating. There is a high probability that after continued fluctuations, we can expect a nice rebound here. March is crucial; if the monthly line continues to close in the red and does not break 60k, then Q2 will be stable!

Look at my analysis

With knowledge and action in unity, as long as you are not greedy, there are still good opportunities in a wide-ranging volatile market!

Recently, the fluctuations have been quite large, often exceeding 5%. Look for opportunities to enter below 65000, and exit above 68000. There are no significant profit-making opportunities; if you can grab a chance, do it once, but don't do it too frequently, and focus on the win rate!

February's monthly line has officially closed with a strong decline, and March has just begun. It is highly likely to maintain a fluctuation around 60,000. If March continues to close negatively, then Q2 will be quite clear!

Today, the missile attacked my wallet, but even in this situation, BTC has not fallen below the previous level of around 62500!

This indicates a weakening trend for the bears, and the current 4H trend has shown a bottom doji, suggesting a rebound trend. If you believe that the recent trend will continue to be a wide range of fluctuations, then this position is a good opportunity!

If the market is going to rise, then this negative news is a good opportunity to get in. If the market is going to fall, this negative news will only accelerate its decline!

So, don't panic; news stimuli can only affect the short term and cannot change the trend. The key lies in your perspective on the market: will it continue to fall in March or will it fluctuate at the bottom?

In the past two days, BTC surged by 10%, rebounding from a low of 63K to 70K, and many altcoins have skyrocketed as if a bull market is returning. Is it really like this?!

In fact, during a bear market, such sudden surges or crashes due to a piece of news or for no apparent reason have become commonplace; this is the expected rhythm.

A 50% pullback from the high for BTC is quite normal, and a five-month streak of declines is significant. The critical position of 60K being tested repeatedly is also relatively normal, and at this stage, I am more inclined towards wide fluctuations.

If the market improves a bit, there may be a chance to start a phase of rebound, or even an opportunity to break through 80K, but this is merely a rebound; 60K will eventually be broken, and I do not believe that this round of 60K is the bottom. If it really is, it would indicate a complete change in the bull and bear cycle!

Regardless of the outcome, I can accept it. The crypto market will ultimately usher in a new round of explosion, and before that, I need to ensure I am still here, trying to accumulate a bit more capital for a turnaround, waiting for a worthwhile opportunity to go all in!

Everyone wants to know where the bottom of this round is. If I had to say, I believe the bottom is definitely between 30,000 and 50,000!

As for the specific point, no one can say for sure. The real bottom depends on when big funds and institutions enter the market to support the price, when the chips can really be cleaned out, and even depends on the trend of the US stock market!

So, specific points are equivalent to blind guesses, while the range of 30,000 to 50,000 is truly reliable. Any position below 50,000 is considered the bottom; the bottom is a range!

This range is the lifeline of mining costs, the cost line of BTC's weighted average, the historical line of about 70% decline from ATH, and the normal rational return line of past cycles!

So stop going back and forth with guesses. Just believe that between 30,000 and 50,000 is enough. Anything below 50,000 is the bottom. When one day BTC breaks through 200,000 USD, you basically won't care whether it's 30,000 or 50,000 to enter the market; what you should care about is having bought at the bottom and holding on to it!

If I had to say which stage the bear market is currently in?

Then I believe:
Just like in 2018 when BTC was at $6000
Just like in 2022 when BTC reached $30,000

Some might say if that's the case, can’t you just close your eyes and short to make a profit? Theoretically, there’s no problem, but in reality, even if it does continue to plummet later, most people shorting will find it hard to make money because it will fluctuate; it will rise before it falls...

Many people will not be able to withstand short-term floating losses and will stop-loss; many will even suffer greatly due to oversized positions and may face liquidation.

In the end, it did indeed fall, but those who shorted still lost money; this is the market, this is human nature. Even if you know the final result, it’s still hard to make money 🤑

Mild Crisis: Cash Reigns
Moderate Crisis: Gold Reigns
Severe Crisis: Guns Reign
Extreme Crisis: Food Reigns
No Crisis: Women Reign

Women are worthless in front of the rich
The rich are worthless in front of power
Power is worthless in front of guns
Guns are worthless in front of the poor
The poor are worthless in front of women

The world is such a closed loop; what crisis have we reached at this stage?

Take a serious look at the top 50 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization; most of them have already been replaced in the next cycle!

Compared to the peak of the bull market in 2021, the top 50 cryptocurrencies by market cap have plummeted.

Most cryptocurrencies have fallen back to their original points, or even been cut in half repeatedly; after a complete cycle of bull and bear markets, not only have they not set new highs, but they have also trapped countless people.

Only after the excitement can we see clearly: Bitcoin is still Bitcoin, BTC withstands the cycles and still has a future, while altcoins have long since disappeared.

The stories of hundred-fold and thousand-fold returns, the extravagant ecological narratives, are all illusions. Once the heat dissipates, the funds leave, and the stories are told, what remains is only a slow decline, going to zero, and no one caring anymore.

The most painful truth of this cycle:

BTC is the foundational asset that transcends bull and bear markets, while altcoins are just the fireworks of a bull market. When the splendor fades, faith returns, and the end for altcoins is only going to zero. Only BTC still offers a glimpse of tomorrow.

This is the biggest uncertainty I emphasize, the US stock market!

At 7:00 AM this morning, the NASDAQ index opened down 1%, while BTC plummeted 4%. Who can bear this? It has already fallen nearly 50% from its relatively high point...

If the US stock index drops another 10%, it would be completely normal for BTC to fall below $50,000. The stock market has been consolidating at a high level without breaking through for a long time, and it looks a bit precarious.

At this stage, if one dares not go long and dare not go short, then we can only continue to wait. Let's wait for a high cost-performance position to enter again. With the third phase of the decline coming, this cycle of decline will be complete!