$BTC If it falls to 51600💲, Bitcoin will fall by 30%. There is indeed a strong support near this position.
It is impossible for Bitcoin and Ethereum to fall to 44,000 and 2,400 US dollars, otherwise the altcoins will be gone. Up to now, the mainstream altcoins have fallen enough, but SOL has not been cut in half, and there is no new low. The weak ATOM has fallen to 5, and the bear market has fallen by 90%, 4.5.
If you are afraid that Bitcoin will not bottom out after falling by 30%, wait for the altcoins to have a double bottom on the daily line and other bottoming processes. If you are not afraid, be brave to buy the bottom when the market panic explodes.
We can't expect too much for the first interest rate cut. Don't bet on the short-term market, the interest rate cut is a long-term positive for the market.
As for the short-term market, it can rise or fall.
However, I believe that after 1~2 interest rate cuts, Bitcoin will officially break through $73,000, after six months of continuous interest rate cuts.
The market will go completely crazy.
What is coming will always come back, be prepared.
Ethereum is too weak. Since the beginning of last year, it has been weakly following Bitcoin, with almost no independent market.
At the end of 2023, SOL outperformed the market. At the beginning of 2024, BNB outperformed the market.
Bitcoin is my first position, and Ethereum is my second position.
Now I can only expect ETH to have a chance to perform at the end of the bull market, at the end of 2025. It's tasteless to eat, but it's a pity to throw it away.
Maybe in most cases, individual coins are not worth buying.
The market is not easy to beat. Most people's similar investment portfolios, Bitcoin + Ethereum + XX coins, all underperform the index.
Bitcoin is the index, and 90% of the currencies cannot outperform the index. The remaining 10% that can outperform the index can only outperform the index in a short period of time. Holding Bitcoin can beat 90% of people.
The market is suitable for long-term holding, and individual coins are suitable for swing trading.
Because individual coins often deviate from the market.
Only when a coin deviates too much from the market and is extremely undervalued, is it worth taking out some money to invest, such as BNB, which was in crisis last year. (It can only outperform the market Bitcoin for a few months)
When a coin outperforms the market in a major uptrend (such as SOL) and is recognized by the public to outperform the market in the future, it will not outperform the market for a long time in the future.
I expect Ethereum to deviate too much from the market next year and be corrected wildly. Compared with the market (Bitcoin), Ethereum is also a coin.
Compared with individual coins, the market (Bitcoin) is more stable.
I also heard in the last cycle that this cycle is different, there will be no previous dividends and no general rise in the market, the market value of cryptocurrencies is very large in this cycle, it is too different from the past, and there is no money in the market.
There is a saying that the soup is changed but the medicine is not changed, and there is a saying that the decoration has changed but the location has not changed.
The interest rate cut is coming soon, and the market volatility is increasing. However, I am not very concerned about the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
The interest rate cut is a long-term positive for the market, and it may rise or fall in the short term.
Whether the positive impact is implemented, there will be a correction or not. Whether the first interest rate cut is a surge or not.
Short-term fluctuations cannot interfere with my view of the general trend.
The general trend is spiraling upward.
Bitcoin broke through the previous high, triggering the next wave of speculation.
The "three wallets" in Fanhua say: How much money do you have in your pocket, how much money can you borrow, and how much money others think you have.
This is about the three reasons why strangers/new acquaintances are interested in getting to know you better, developing, and working with you:
1. Wealth; determines your ability to flexibly control and respond to certain things immediately and quickly. This is how much money you have in your pocket.
2. Resources and power; the former is how many people and things you can use your influence to deploy to serve my/our affairs. The latter specifically refers to the right to make decisions, commonly known as the ability to make decisions, "you yourself" can directly make decisions and change the scope of people, money, and things. This is how much money you can borrow.
3. Reputation and honor, through your past achievements and the construction of your personal image, determine how many people recognize and trust you. This is how much money others think you have.
The evaluation of a person's "business card" will ultimately come down to the theory of results, that is, how much you have done that can be recognized by most people. Your origin, growth environment, education, and place of origin are the map of the treasure, and your intelligence level, physical fitness, and stress resistance are all shovels to dig out the treasure, but these are not the treasure itself. People are more inclined to choose, recognize, and help those who have already dug up treasures, rather than those who have a good map and a good shovel but have not dug up treasures.
"99% of unity is unity of those who need unity." Region, education, hobbies, and occupation are not the parts that you should write about and over-display on your social business card. This does not determine whether you become the person who needs to be united.
Over-emphasizing the collective and intending to link the collective impression to the personal image is tantamount to putting on a human mask in order to make others "know you", "have an impression", and "preliminarily recognize/trust you".
Going to a good school and finding a good job should not be the end of training and self-cultivation. Jokingly speaking, this is the key and beginning to open a new Pandora's box, which will never end.
Friends who fantasize that interest rate cuts mean bull market, you can go to sleep now.
If the bull market is likened to giving birth. Then the bull market is like a blind date? Blind date today, giving birth tomorrow, how is it possible? It takes 10 months to conceive, and the bull market needs more time.
Even if the interest rate is cut in September, the bull will not come immediately.
A friend said, are you shorting the cryptocurrency market?
Funny. With my insignificant little account, I can short him by posting two articles, so why keep the cryptocurrency market? Too fragile...
Water release is the starting point. As for when it will flow to the cryptocurrency market, it depends on the amount of water on the one hand and the time on the other. It is visible to the naked eye that not only the cryptocurrency market, but also major central banks and various industries around the world are very hungry and looking forward to interest rate cuts.
The bull market must be the result of the combined efforts of time, place and people.
It is generally believed in the industry that the interest rate cut will last for a long time after it starts in September, and the real water release will not start until the new US president takes office.
So don't have too many illusions about the bull market caused by interest rate cuts, just leave it to time.
How much money can flow into the cryptocurrency circle? When will it flow into the cryptocurrency circle? These are all unknowns. What we can do is to hold the currency and wait for the rise, and don't worry about the rest.
Today, someone actually said that there is no bull market? I think he probably didn't read Xiao Tong's article...
Iron-headed coin hoarders will never give up until the bull market.
The cryptocurrency circle is chaotic. No matter whether it rises or falls, there are demons and monsters to scare you and eat your flesh and drink your blood. What should you do?
Last night, Bitcoin fell to $53,000 and then pulled back.
Now I hope that Bitcoin will stay sideways at $55,000 for a while, and not rise to $60,000 all at once.
Short-term fluctuations are too large, which will attract short-term traders.
After a period of sideways trading, short-term traders will find it unprofitable and leave the market to wait and see, and long-term investors can start their journey lightly.
The longer it stays sideways, the higher it will rise.
The current emotional temperature is 29°, which is in fear. Why is there greed and fear in the market? It is all due to the failure to meet psychological expectations.
Reasonable expectations are important.
It is unreasonable to overestimate assets in greed or underestimate assets in fear.
For example, at the end of 2023, fear will dominate the market.
Everyone underestimates assets and believes that the annualized return of Bitcoin will be zero, and it will end with a sharp drop at the end of the year.
Or in the first half of 2024, greed will dominate the market.
Everyone overestimates assets and believes that Bitcoin will rise to $100,000 or $120,000, and the bull market will end early.
Obviously, these two psychological expectations are unreliable.
When the market is in extreme greed or extreme fear, the pricing of assets is unreliable.
Last year was an over-rise, and this year is an over-fall.
In the global collapse in August, the Nikkei stock index monopoly, the US stock market crash, and the top four cryptocurrencies all hit new lows.
No asset will keep falling. Mispriced assets will eventually be corrected, even if it is an overcorrection~
Non-farm and unemployment data prompted the Air Force, Arthur Hayes is bearish on Bitcoin
Recently, the cryptocurrency market has continued to maintain a downward trend. From August 26 to date, the price of Bitcoin has plummeted by nearly 10,000 points. At 3 pm on August 6, the price of Bitcoin plummeted by more than 1,000 points from $56,439 to a low of $55,280 before rebounding.
Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin will fall below $50,000 this weekend Against the backdrop of such depressed market sentiment, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes tweeted on social platform X today predicting that Bitcoin will fall below $50,000 this weekend:
The current price of Bitcoin is out of reach for ordinary people.
NEIRO is listed on Binance. Although the current market is very bad, the influence of the big exchange is still there. Because it is listed on Binance, it has increased eight or nine times from the lowest point. It is the only coin that has skyrocketed recently.
Eight or nine times, this is called a surge. Don't shout a few points in the future.
At about 6 a.m., a friend contacted me on WeChat and said, "Bitcoin crashed." I was upset and thought, "It crashed. The market crashed, and it will rise again sooner or later."
Some things, once lost, will never come back.
But I still replied to him to hold on. The extremely panicked market is definitely underestimated. Panic and greed will cycle alternately. If you can't overcome this emotion, you will always be a loser.
I suddenly realized that my first reaction was a bit emotional.
It seems that I have to hedge my emotions. When people are in a bad mood, they must not do nothing and feel sorry for themselves.
If you are panicked because of the crash, read more financial history.
If you are emotionally sad, go out and relax more.
Doing nothing will only lead to serious emotional consumption.
The wolf came in July The wolf came in August The wolf came in September Now the Americans say that there is nothing wrong and there are no wolves No one believes it anymore There is also a bug here that Buffett is still selling stocks But the market is not falling smoothly and it rebounds by 2,000-3,000 US dollars every few days. I am tired of watching it... If you have a black swan, I hope it will come as soon as possible to prevent future troubles If you don’t have a black swan, I hope there will never be a black swan. I am tired and don’t want to be nervous and watch this kind of wolf-coming market every day Isn’t it just a black swan? The 312 crash of -60%, the 519 crash of -35% are not unheard of. I am not afraid of black swans, I am afraid of this kind of torment of falling prices. Start over as soon as possible, and no one will be tortured anymore, and there will be no peace...
We are experiencing the darkness before dawn, the last baptism before the main rising wave
I think now is the bottom range of the small bear market, and the bull market has not yet arrived. I don’t know that the bottom range of the bear market can make you surrender your chips through various ways of washing, among which, the extreme shock includes killing
I know that the entire economic cycle led by the Federal Reserve is shifting from tightening to easing
I know that the interest rate cut is not a one-time cut, but a 25, a 25, and several 25, which is exactly the opposite of the interest rate hike cycle
I also know that the interest rate cut is the real release of water, and real money and silver are beginning to flow into the market , this money will push up the price of assets denominated in US dollars
I am greedy for lower-priced chips. I want to swim in the turbulent waves and seek to maximize profits. I know it is risky, but I can't control my greed
Today, we will mainly focus on the data released in the evening.
At 20:30 in the evening, the US unemployment rate for August will be released. Previous value: 4.30% Expected: 4.20% Lower than expected is positive, higher than expected is negative
At 20:30 in the evening, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the United States for August will be released. Previous value: 11.4 Expected: 16 Lower than expected is positive, higher than expected is negative
So far, many people must be very confused as to why the market has been so bumpy. Is it really because of lack of money that the market is weak or is there some unknown secret?
As the Federal Reserve's September interest rate meeting approaches and expectations of a rate cut are building, the market is inexplicably panicking, as evidenced by the large amount of bearish sentiment and excessive short orders in the market.
The theory of rate cuts causing a collapse has begun to spread. Similar remarks are not only found in Chinese communities, but also on overseas English social platforms. To believe that the Fed will mess up at the operational level and that the US economy and even the dollar hegemony will collapse completely is obviously a tactical underestimation of the enemy. This kind of quick victory theory is absolutely unacceptable.