Now it is more and more like the eve of the big crash in 2021

A landmark event is coming

(24 years of presidential inauguration/21 years of coinbase ipo)

Specific altcoins are in chaos, Trump meme coins are on fire, and the market fomo sentiment is all up. The heat is too high, but we have to pay attention to easy defense. Yesterday's square article also explained that we should sell at highs and control positions. The expected landing will usher in a wave of declines.
(Trump coin in 2025, etc./Dogcoin in 2021)

Market sentiment is very excited
Continuous out-of-circle events have attracted a lot of attention and funds

At this time, you must pay attention to risk control

The key is not how much money you have made in floating profit
The key is how much money you have stopped profit

It is definitely right to take the money for safekeeping
After the madness, there must be a mess, every time

Bitcoin is money
Meme coin is not

#特朗普上任前风向分析 #TRUMP市值突破 $BTC
$ETH
$BNB

Last night, the market sentiment of FOMO was unbearable to watch. The funding rate for Bitcoin was 0.1, and the annualized borrowing rate on Binance peaked at 80%, while OKX reached 43%. The peak madness of a bull market is nothing more than this.

If we follow past bull markets, this kind of FOMO sentiment would start with Bitcoin down 20%. But the fundamentals of Bitcoin have changed now, and I have mentioned what those fundamentals are. This leads to continuous capital grabbing Bitcoin, making it very difficult for Bitcoin to drop significantly. As for whether it can really drop a lot, short-term predictions are impossible, and predicting the short-term is meaningless due to high randomness.

In the short term, if the increase is too much, it can drop, or it can digest profit-taking in the form of sideways movement.

This sudden drop in Bitcoin saw altcoins not dropping much relative to their increase. Why? This is a characteristic of the latter half of a bull market, the rotation of capital. Many people will sell Bitcoin, but the capital will not leave the market; it will instead buy mainstream coins and altcoins.

Ethereum performed strongly during this sudden drop in Bitcoin, combined with the positive news of Trump taking office and the Prague upgrade in March. I believe the ETH/BTC weekly chart will continue to rise.

I do not hold much hope for the overall market in December; I am focused on the increases in January and February.

The period of January and February 2025 is comparable to the months of past bull markets in 2017 and 2021. In both of these bull markets, there were significant increases during these two months.
Subsequent positive news not materializing does not mean pessimism; I will continue to hold my positions and remain bullish. #BTC☀

Last Spring Festival, the cryptocurrency world was filled with excitement, and optimism was high; everyone was full of expectations for the future.

But this year, the atmosphere is completely different. The celebrations are gone, replaced by silence and caution. It is heartbreaking that 95% of altcoins are almost underperforming. From a technical perspective, both the weekly and monthly trends of Bitcoin have not shown any signs of a peak. Considering the market cycle, investor sentiment, and various other key indicators, Bitcoin is still some distance from its peak range.

If the public is optimistic about (and holding out for) the altcoin season, it means that buying pressure has already been exhausted, and there is no money left to support the rise of the market.

If the public is pessimistic about (and in cash waiting for) the 519 crash, it means that a lot of buying pressure is waiting to catch the bottom, and the market could rise at any time.

This can be considered a classic case of going against human nature, as everyone is carving the boat of "the speculative frenzy of altcoins in the previous bull market."

The first quarter is a critical period that goes against humanity.

Absolutely do not carve the boat chasing the rise of the "altcoin season," only to carve the boat during the 519 crash to cut losses; this will only result in chasing highs and selling lows.

There was no 312 in the first quarter, and there will be no 519 in the second quarter.

With the market adjusting like this in the first quarter, coupled with the historical memory of the 519 crash in the second quarter, we will experience the safest 519 in history.

$BTC
$ETH
$BNB

1. Can Bitcoin fall below the 100,000-108,000 range? Or will the V-return range break through 11w in February?

2. Will BTC.D go 61.5% in February and USDT.D go more than 5%? Or do you think BTC.D will go 57.5%?

3. Ethereum will rebound to 3220USD at most and then continue to pull back to 2850, or around 3000, which is the bottom, with a target of 4800, as summer is approaching?

4. The probability of the S&P and Dow Jones currently having a potential double top is relatively high. Will the United States digest the tariff issue as a major negative and start an overall pullback after the market opens on Monday? Or do you think it will continue to rise slowly to a new high in the past two months?

5. In the current situation, will the exchange rate go to 7.6 or 7.0 USDT in the past two years?

I chose my own answer and bet to wait for the expected expectations. I hope everyone will choose the right one and get the result.

Happy New Year.

$BTC $ETH $BNB

When Pepe came out two years ago, it took a month to peak. When Orid came out later, it peaked in about a month. Last year, Bome peaked in 3 days. This year, Trump peaked in a day and a half. Now, Sol Chain's meme peaked in a few hours. The speed of speed pass is getting faster and faster. It is getting harder and harder to get on the train. And it has reached the point of digging deep into the ground to find the angle. ​​​

$BTC
$SOL
$ETH

As a trader, the first thing to figure out is where the money comes from. If you want to make money or even double your money with 100,000 or 1 million, it is not difficult. You can make money by just letting some money slip through the fingers of retail investors and big investors in the market.

But if you are a big investor and want to make so much money, you must have another big investor lose to you. At this time, you have to consider whether you have the ability. The big investors who can achieve this level are all smart and have n times more money than you.

When soda ash was forced to short, the Jiangsu and Zhejiang consortium lost 30 billion in order to make a few hundred points of soda ash. The opponent's 100 billion funds directly swept all the spot and forced a short. Now soda ash is lower than when he shorted it, but the money is gone.

Don't let yourself become a fish on the chopping board. There are many people in this world who are better and richer than you.

Always try to win big with small.

This time, the US currency, artificial intelligence and technology stocks all collapsed, which was much more severe than in 2022. In 2022, it was just a small correction. This time, more than ten years of bubbles were liquidated together. It has been 17 years since the great financial crisis in 2008. It is time for reincarnation. Wealth is completely reshuffled. If you survive, you will have the next round of wealth. If you die, you will have nothing. The only way to cross the cycle is to wait for the crisis with cash. Otherwise, you will be the one who hands over the bloody chips.

Buffett's three principles for bottom-fishing: war, plague, and financial crisis.

$BTC
$SOL
$BNB

February 1, 2025.

There is a bubble, but it is limited

The market continues to adjust. If you want me to describe the current market, I can only say: "There is a bubble, but it is limited."

There is a bubble because everyone is collectively AII IN cottage at the end of 2024.

All the junk coins in the market were hyped up in the short term at the end of 2024, and even junk coins like EOS rose several times in the short term.

It is not serious because the junk coins rose several times and retreated in time.

If the cottage coins are allowed to rise 10 times collectively, then the market is now in danger and will collapse like in 2021.

Timely retreat means that the bubble is not enough to cause a collapse.

The current adjustment is just a normal correction in the bull market. The correction may take several months, and the adjustment range of the bull market is limited.

It is that the cottage coins have fallen sharply.

Some individual currencies have serious bubbles, such as XRP and others. The previous wave of market rose fiercely, and the next wave of market may not work.

But most of the currencies in the market have not been hyped up.

Fanatical public opinion (consensus) is not only the source of potential low returns, but also the source of high risks.

No matter how high it rises, it is not high. This is a dangerous suggestion.

It is not easy to achieve high returns in a bull market while taking risks below the market. This requires rationality during enthusiasm.

It is easy to make several times in a bull market, but it is difficult to keep it from a major retracement.

Unless the tide recedes, we have no way of telling who is wearing clothes and who is swimming naked.

Crazy chasing of the rise and holding a fluke mentality may lead to big mistakes.

#加密市场反弹 $BTC

$ETH
$BNB

January 31, 2025.

The market cannot be correct for everyone.

The adjustment in the market continues, and emotionally, I also hope that Q1 of 2025 will see a season of fakes, with a general rise in the market.

Rationally, however, too many people are in consensus about the season of fakes.

Therefore, the probability of a correction in Q1 of 2025 is greater, and it may even experience sideways fluctuations, while the probability of a comprehensive rise is the smallest.

The market will generally run in the opposite direction of public expectations.

Buying at undervalued prices means not having to bear excessive risks.

The view that risks have disappeared is one of the most dangerous sources of risk and is also a major factor that contributes to market bubbles.

Understanding current group behavior can provide a glimpse into the signs of a crash.

When everyone is saying, "No matter how low it drops, I won't buy in," this is a signal of very low risk in the market.

When everyone is saying, "No matter how high it rises, it won't be too high," this is a signal of very high risk in the market.

Substantial profits come from the crowd going east while you go west.

When everyone believes something is risky, the unwillingness to purchase will drive the price down to a point where there is virtually no risk.

When everyone believes something is not risky, the price is usually driven up to a level that contains substantial risk.

When everyone believes there is no risk, that is when the risk is at its highest.

#加密市场反弹 #微策略持续增持BTC $BTC
$ETH
$BNB

In a long-term investment career, there is really no need to be too invested, putting yourself in a high-pressure environment all the time.

In my own style, there were only 12 opportunities to take action on BTC throughout the whole of last year, averaging about once a month, many of which were failures or missed because I was asleep. The same goes for low-quality coins; high-quality coins are quite scarce and hard to come by.

So most of the time it's about waiting, but this kind of waiting requires maintaining focus, more like a kind of entertaining observation. Balancing life, work, and entertainment is quite a difficult thing.

How can one make money trading coins?

Core Strategy: Replicable profit model. Long-term value investment, focusing on industry leaders, valuation anchoring, and buying when below industry average.

Risk Control: Protecting the principal is key to survival. No single coin position should exceed 20%, and the initial position should not exceed 50%. Dynamic profit-taking, lock in 50% of profits when there’s a 20% gain, and move the stop-loss for the remaining position.

Black Swan Defense: Always keep 20% cash, allocate 5%-10% in gold ETFs or government bonds for hedging.

Cognitive Breakthrough: Avoid 80% of retail investors' fatal mistakes. Data-driven decision-making, establish a trading log, counter-intuitive operations, and buy during market panic.

Advice: The cryptocurrency market has a probability of 7 losses, 2 breakevens, and 1 win. However, professional investors who adhere to the above system can still achieve positive returns.

On the third day of the Lunar New Year, I wish everyone a Happy New Year, wishing everyone blessings in the Year of the Snake. In 2025, starting trades will surely be profitable! Doubling returns! ☀☀☀

#加密市场反弹 #ETH再度冲击4K $BTC

$ETH
$BNB

Quite interesting.

BTC doesn't really follow the decline of the US stock market.

Altcoins don't really follow the rise of Bitcoin.

ETH is clearly weaker than BTC, breaking below the 120-day moving average with a clear bearish outlook. The previously strong market leaders like XRP, SOL, and DOGE, especially XRP, have quickly deteriorated in short-term indicators.

This means that Bitcoin's dominance (market share) will rise rapidly. Nostalgic for the FTX basket of altcoin index shorting tools.

#微策略持续增持BTC #币安LaunchpoolVANA $BTC
$ETH
$XRP

Let's talk about Jup

Jup is one of the few projects still making moves in the market with its destruction and repurchase strategy, worth mentioning:

1. It's difficult for JUP to benchmark against the last round of Uni; the last round of Uni had two advantages that Jup lacks.
2. First, the original AMM, which had a very high premium; Jup lacks any groundbreaking innovation from 0 to 1. Back then, Uni's product was very niche, very sharp, and hit the mark perfectly. Today, Jup is a mixed bag; it's not at the top tier of DEX and is also being drained by the underlying AMM.
3. Secondly, the era of Uni was a time of copycat bull markets; the timing was far better than Jup's. Uni was able to enter the crypto top 10, but Jup is unlikely to have that fortune.

Returning to the valuation issue:
1. Currently, it is the peak period for the Sol ecosystem (based on the testing from Melania, it’s hard to continue soaring, and the chain is starting to congest). Based on the current repurchase, it could reach 400 million in a year.
2. A 400 million repurchase supports an FDV of 8 billion and a PE of 20 times, which is actually not considered undervalued.
3. I believe the most likely outcome is that, as the Sol ecosystem settles down, Jup's market cap will adjust.

Regarding recent trends:
1. Destroying 30% of the chips resulted in little market reaction; however, when the news of a 50% repurchase came out, the market rose by 20%. It fell down and then came back up.
2. Overall, it is weaker than expected. Perhaps the market is anticipating the unlocking of team shares in February. The recent positive news may be intended for a few days later to benefit from the cut, hence the market's lukewarm reaction.

The enigma of shares:
1. The team's share is at 50%, and they can control 60%, which is quite severe. The team may not necessarily act maliciously, but they have a significant space to do so.
2. I have not found the unlocking situation for various parts, and there are some complaints in the community about not publishing the unlocking schedule. If the project team is doing this intentionally, it would be rather unkind. If anyone knows the vesting schedule for each part, please let me know.

Imagination:
1. Jupiter + Moonshot + Meteora basically define the liquidity of the Sol ecosystem.

To summarize:
Jup is at a short-term high point, has good fundamentals, and allows for a lot of operational space for the team. It will be continuously monitored.

#微策略持续增持BTC #币安LaunchpoolVANA #山寨币走势展望 #币安MegadropSOLV $BTC
$ETH
$BNB

Today, Nvidia plunged 16.9%, and its market value decreased by 589 billion US dollars. It set a record for the single-day market value decrease in the US stock market.

The total market value of Ethereum is 394.6 billion US dollars.

Cold joke, Nvidia lost Ethereum + SOL in one day. ​​​

The meaning of saving money

1. When you save 10,000 yuan, even if you lose your job, it is enough for you to live for three months, so you don’t have to worry for the time being.

2. When you save 50,000 yuan, you don’t have to worry about your life within a year, and your daily food and clothing will not be affected.

3. When you save 100,000 yuan, you are no longer panicked, full of confidence in life, and occasionally you can buy clothes for your parents.

4. When you save 500,000 yuan, you are like wearing a solid armor that can resist most future risks.

5. When you save 1 million yuan, you don’t have to look at other people’s faces, and you will never suffer from insomnia or anxiety again.

With food in hand, you are not panicked in your heart. Therefore, having money is the greatest dignity of an adult.

$BTC $ETH $BNB

DeepSeek will be a technology related to national destiny. From the perspective of investors, first think about which A-share stocks are good for DeepSeek.

Equity-related category

• Zhejiang Dongfang: participated in DeepSeek's angel round investment through its Hangzhou Dongfang Jiafu Fund.

• Huajin Capital: An investment platform under Zhuhai State-owned Assets, participated in DeepSeek's Pre-A round of financing through Huajin Lingyue Fund.

• Daily Interaction: As the second largest shareholder of Huanfang Quantitative, it has an indirect capital relationship with DeepSeek and can provide it with user behavior data for model training, etc.

Computing power infrastructure category

• Inspur Information: Provides AI server clusters, NVIDIA H800 chips and self-developed AIStation management platform for DeepSeek Beijing Yizhuang Zhisuan Center.

• Sugon: Undertakes the construction of the liquid cooling system of DeepSeek Hangzhou Training Center to ensure the model training environment.

• Runze Technology: Provides 3000+ cabinet resources for Langfang Data Center, using indirect evaporative cooling technology to reduce operating costs.

Data and scenario cooperation

• Torui: Jointly developed a financial public opinion model with DeepSeek, and has deployed an intelligent research report generation system in institutions such as CITIC Securities.

• iFlytek: Connected to the DeepSeek-Math model in the education scenario and jointly launched the AI ​​mathematics tutoring application "Xinghuo Aid".

• Kingsoft Office: WPS intelligent writing function integrates DeepSeek-Writer API to improve the efficiency of document generation and reduce the error rate.

Technical collaboration

• Feilixin: Adopting MLA (multi-head potential attention mechanism), there is technical synergy potential with DeepSeek-V2 architecture innovation.

• Nanwei Software: Developed biometric authentication technology based on the multi-head attention mechanism, which is in line with DeepSeek's technical direction.

• Hangjin Technology: Its subsidiary ChaoQing Digital Intelligence provides optical modules and switches for DeepSeek.

#加密市场回调 $BTC $ETH $BNB

Deepseek has been extremely popular in recent days. The emergence of Deepseek has temporarily reduced the number of graphics cards needed, which is bad for Nvidia, but I think in the long run it is still beneficial, as it lowers the cost of using AI across various industries. Companies that initially couldn't afford to participate may now join in.

By the way, just a conspiracy theory, but as soon as Trump announced he would create Stargate, the popularity of Deepseek began to rise, even though it had already existed before. It feels like it involves internal struggles within the U.S.

As for BTC, it's just a follower of Nasdaq.

$BTC
$ETH
$BNB

Deepseek has made everyone see through the real bubble of high valuations, with training models costing hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars.

As the U.S. stock market opens tonight,

everyone is worried that Deepseek's breakout will blow up these giant AI valuation companies in the U.S. stock market.

If Nvidia crashes, the entire U.S. stock market will also crash.

A crash in the U.S. stock market will inevitably involve you, my friend, in the crypto space to pick up the tab.

During the day, capital has already run away in advance.

The so-called 'what's not bright in the West shines in the East.'

This world is always in mutual competition.

The sensitivity and sharpness of capital are always ahead.

$BTC
$ETH
$BNB

Deepseek achieved 80% of OpenAI's effectiveness with only one-tenth of the computing power, which is a huge blow to Nvidia.

Tonight, Nvidia will plummet, the US stock market will crash, and #BTC☀ will fall.

Below is Deepseek's advice for newcomers entering the circle, which is quite reasonable.

$BTC
$ETH
$BNB

Why do 9 out of 10 altcoins in this round reach their peak after listing on the exchange and then fall all the way?

Before a company's equity is listed on the stock exchange,

it will go through:

Angel round, VC round, A round, B round, C round, D round...

Each round's valuation is higher than the previous round.

After listing on the exchange, people who were in the previous angel round, VC round, A round, B round, C round, and D round will start to cash out.

If the company has value and people think the valuation is cheap, it will continue to rise after listing on the exchange if the buying orders are greater than the selling orders for cashing out.

But if the valuation is already overestimated after listing on the exchange, it will basically fall all the way.

There is a big difference between this round of altcoins and the previous rounds of altcoins.

This round of on-chain transactions has become very popular.

Before listing on the exchange, everyone has participated in the project's angel round, VC round, A round, B round, C round, D round... on the chain, and the valuation has been hyped up very high.

After listing on the exchange, people in various rounds on the chain basically start to cash out, so it can only fall all the way.

The root cause is that,

The on-chain transactions are very active, which leads to the project valuation being hyped up in advance. The purpose of listing on the exchange is to cash out, and the chips are sold to the secondary market.

Everyone has also felt this round. The on-chain transactions are very active and there are many opportunities, but 90% of the exchanges in the secondary market are falling.

The times have changed. The era when you can make a fortune by buying in the secondary market with your eyes closed is over.

It’s really not the Binance exchange that is cutting people. It’s not the exchange that is crashing the market. The exchange did not go out to gamble with users, so how can it cut you?
The exchange earns commissions. Now the daily trading volume of a large number of plummeting altcoins is about 20 million, while the trading volume of the soaring altcoins is as high as hundreds of millions or billions.
The exchange also wants the altcoin season to explode, users make money, and the exchange earns commissions, a win-win situation.

Complaining and scolding are meaningless. People cannot change the market, they can only change themselves.

In this situation, either play on the chain and participate in the angel round, VC round, A round, B round, C round, D round of the project in advance, or short the secondary market.

$BTC
$ETH
$BNB