Last night, the market sentiment of FOMO was unbearable to watch. The funding rate for Bitcoin was 0.1, and the annualized borrowing rate on Binance peaked at 80%, while OKX reached 43%. The peak madness of a bull market is nothing more than this.

If we follow past bull markets, this kind of FOMO sentiment would start with Bitcoin down 20%. But the fundamentals of Bitcoin have changed now, and I have mentioned what those fundamentals are. This leads to continuous capital grabbing Bitcoin, making it very difficult for Bitcoin to drop significantly. As for whether it can really drop a lot, short-term predictions are impossible, and predicting the short-term is meaningless due to high randomness.

In the short term, if the increase is too much, it can drop, or it can digest profit-taking in the form of sideways movement.

This sudden drop in Bitcoin saw altcoins not dropping much relative to their increase. Why? This is a characteristic of the latter half of a bull market, the rotation of capital. Many people will sell Bitcoin, but the capital will not leave the market; it will instead buy mainstream coins and altcoins.

Ethereum performed strongly during this sudden drop in Bitcoin, combined with the positive news of Trump taking office and the Prague upgrade in March. I believe the ETH/BTC weekly chart will continue to rise.

I do not hold much hope for the overall market in December; I am focused on the increases in January and February.

The period of January and February 2025 is comparable to the months of past bull markets in 2017 and 2021. In both of these bull markets, there were significant increases during these two months.
Subsequent positive news not materializing does not mean pessimism; I will continue to hold my positions and remain bullish. #BTC☀

$BTC
If it falls to 51600💲, Bitcoin will fall by 30%. There is indeed a strong support near this position.

It is impossible for Bitcoin and Ethereum to fall to 44,000 and 2,400 US dollars, otherwise the altcoins will be gone.
Up to now, the mainstream altcoins have fallen enough, but SOL has not been cut in half, and there is no new low. The weak ATOM has fallen to 5, and the bear market has fallen by 90%, 4.5.

If you are afraid that Bitcoin will not bottom out after falling by 30%, wait for the altcoins to have a double bottom on the daily line and other bottoming processes.
If you are not afraid, be brave to buy the bottom when the market panic explodes.

December 20, 2024.

Different paths, same direction.

Bitcoin has slightly dropped, while altcoins have plummeted.

This bull market cycle has followed a completely different path compared to the last bull market cycle, making it impossible to apply historical lessons directly.

This bull market has three major distinctions:
① In 2023, it does not resemble the outline of 2019.
② In 2024, it does not resemble the March 12 of 2020.
③ In 2025, it does not resemble the dual-head bull of 2021.

Compared to the last bull market, there is not a single wave that can be directly compared.

All thoughts in your mind about the 2021 (dual-head bull) trend should be erased; history has never had identical movements.

But even if we cannot make direct comparisons, do not lose hope.

The overall direction of the cycle is consistent; it is just reaching its peak through different paths. There may be a rise at the beginning of 2021 and a consolidation at the beginning of 2025.

Consolidation in mid-2021 and a surge in mid-2025.

No matter how much the bull market dips, the peaks and troughs are getting higher.

If you always wait to deploy during declines and then try to recover using various leverage during rises, you will end up not only losing money but also going into debt by the end of the bull market.

No matter how steep the crash is, it cannot fill the cyclical gaps.

All gaps in the bull market will be filled over the next year by a spiraling decline (bear market), compensating for all the gaps from the past two years.

You can choose to escape at the peak of the next major upward wave.

A Bitcoin priced at $100,000 and a Nasdaq index at 20,000 points are already very high; the reason they are not dropping is due to the support from the "interest rate cut cycle."

Once the interest rate cuts near their end, assets will naturally no longer be supported.

Every bull market inevitably dies from capital exhaustion, unable to pass the baton. As long as there is "distributed interest rate cuts" and the flow of currency supply does not cease, the global financial market will not truly collapse.

Look at the bigger picture and do not focus on short-term details. $BTC
$ETH $BNB

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Let me popularize a little-known track for everyone:

Many newcomers do not understand why, after BTC rises, other altcoins fall. The rise of Bitcoin has a draining effect, and many people do not understand what that means! Please consult the following content:

BTC is the leader in the crypto space, the big brother, which is why there are many trading pairs like BTC/ETH, BTC/ADA, DOGE/BTC, TON/BTC, SOL/BTC, PEPE/BTC, BNB/BTC, and many more altcoins paired with Bitcoin!

Observant people will notice that recently, a lot of USDT has been minted. However, when Bitcoin broke new highs, the trading volume of Bitcoin's USDT was not very high, meaning it has been rising without volume. But where does the buying power come from? It appears in these BTC/altcoin trading pairs!!!

Normally, buying coins involves trading with USDT. Recently, many market makers and institutions have adopted a model of using altcoins/BTC, which is equivalent to directly exchanging altcoins for Bitcoin. For altcoins, this means selling and creates selling pressure, which is why recently, every time BTC rises, altcoins fall. The selling pressure faced by altcoins is here, and once BTC rises, they exchange BTC/altcoins back again!!

After going back and forth like this, the amount of coins held by market makers and institutions in USDT will increase. In the process, they also add some leverage to expand the return on investment! #BTC☀ $ETH $BNB

Tonight at 3 AM, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, and a 25 basis point rate cut is a done deal. However, the market should pay special attention to the post-meeting speech, focusing on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's economic forecast summary, which may hint at the Federal Reserve's aggressiveness in cutting rates in 2025. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut this week is 95%, but the probability of a rate cut in January is only about 16%. Additionally, the incoming Trump administration is expected to implement policies to stimulate economic growth, which could reignite inflationary pressures. Currently, the altcoin market remains cautious.

But this is only temporary; the market is in a bullish trend, and this is just a normal adjustment. The market remains volatile without positive news, but once good news arises, it can become a reason for a rally; this is the attitude of a bull market.

Yesterday, BlackRock's IBIT saw a net inflow of $733.6 million, with the Bitcoin ETF size surpassing that of the gold ETF for the first time. Institutions have been buying Bitcoin, and its price has been rising, but the altcoins remain cautious. However, as long as Bitcoin continues to rise, altcoins will soon soar again.

BTC: After reaching a new high yesterday, Bitcoin saw a slight pullback, but this does not affect its continued upward trend; look for support around 102,500. Currently, the U.S. Bitcoin Policy Research Institute has drafted an executive order for President Trump regarding Bitcoin strategic reserves: advocating for Bitcoin to be viewed as 'digital gold,' suggesting the establishment of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) and possibly including it in the national foreign exchange reserves. If this can be realized, the current price of Bitcoin is just the beginning.

ETH: Ethereum continued to pull back yesterday; after failing to break through 4,100, it remains in a short-term consolidation. Today, look for support around 3,750. However, it is best not to breach 3,800 during today's adjustment; breaking this level will extend the short-term consolidation period, which could delay the timing of altcoin seasonal surges. Nonetheless, the medium to long-term bullish outlook remains unchanged, only affecting the width and depth of short-term fluctuations.

Tonight, Powell deserves everyone's attention, as this will determine whether altcoins can surge in the short term. For spot users, the impact is minimal, but for contract users, tonight's volatility may be slightly larger; be sure to manage your positions well, as contracts are the most challenging during volatile periods and should be avoided if possible.

December 17, 2024 #BTC☀

Those who like to predict the short term are living in a state of missing out.

The Nasdaq in the U.S. at 20,000 points and Bitcoin at $100,000, both moving forward like a bulldozer, distancing themselves from round numbers.

In the past two years, analysts predicting the U.S. stock market,

as well as those predicting Bitcoin, have all missed out.

Short-term market conditions are unpredictable, and long-term market trends do not require prediction. Follow common sense, focus on the big picture and let go of the small details, and you won't lose big because of small matters.

Expensive chips come from the late stages of a bull market.

If the bull market is nearing its end and you haven't accumulated enough profits, you’ll be reluctant to exit and will foolishly think it’s a "super cycle."

Any investment without a strategy will end in failure.

If you never pay attention to cost-effectiveness and always operate for short-term gains, you will never make big money.

Remember, do what is wrong in the short term but right in the long term with a high cost-effectiveness ratio.

Always chasing after short-term surges in price will leave you with a basket of assets waiting to be halved, lagging behind the market.

Stay away from coins that have accumulated excessive short-term gains!

If you are not yet making a profit of at least 200%, there’s no hope left, and you may have to wait for the next bull market cycle to learn your lesson.

Cheap chips come from the late stages of a bear market. #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥

$BNB
$BTC
$ETH

Why is missing out worse than being stuck in a loss?

From a psychological perspective, it's quite simple: because in a person's mind, being stuck at least holds some hope. Hope is incredibly important; as long as you have hope, you can endure any hardship. No matter how much you're losing, you can grit your teeth and persevere. However, missing out is different; missing out is devoid of hope. You have no chips in hand, what hope do you have? You can only hope for a decline; but what if it doesn’t decline? Then you can only feel anxious.

After all, in your mind, you believe that the amount of increase should be your profit. What should have been yours, you did not obtain. Do you know what that kind of pain feels like, tearing at your heart?

You will always think, if I had gone all in, I could have made so much money, I could have bought this and that. Unfortunately, I didn't, and I can only watch those around me filled with joy.

This kind of pain, the pain of having no hope, who but the person involved can truly understand?

Missing out on a small market movement takes more than a month to recover from. Missing out on a medium market movement takes more than half a year to recover from. Missing out on a large market movement takes more than two years to recover from, doesn’t it? #BTC☀

$ETH $BNB

December 16, 2024. Continuing to Diverge.

Waking up from a sleep, Bitcoin has reached a new high again.

The last time Bitcoin's price diverged from the annual line by two times was on March 4, when the price was $70,000, and the annual line was $35,000.

Now, Bitcoin's annual line is $65,000 (continuously rising).

The next price divergence from the annual line by two times will be at least $140,000 to $180,000. The higher the divergence, the bigger the bubble.

Outstanding investors always see further than ordinary investors.

The past bull market roadmap can only be referenced, not relied upon. It will reach the peak via different routes, and will not take the same path.

History will only be similar, not the same. #BTC☀

In this bull market, there are three major non-portraits:
① In 2023, not a portrait of 2019.
② In 2024, not a portrait of 2020's 312.
② In 2025, not a portrait of 2021's double-headed bull.

Most investors will only consider short-term results, only a few excellent investors will consider price-to-value ratios and safety margins.

Whenever you adhere to common sense, you will not go bankrupt. #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥 $BNB

The latest total market capitalization of the US 'Seven Sisters' is $18.04 trillion, equivalent to ¥131.15 trillion. The latest total market capitalization of the A-shares is ¥100.71 trillion, with a circulating market capitalization of ¥79.62 trillion.

Previously, the total market capitalization of the US 'Seven Sisters' was 50%, 80%, and 100% of the A-shares; now it is heading towards 150% and 200%.

The rapid rise of the US stock market is largely driven by technology, and of course, the leading tech stocks are not irrationally driven by frenzied group speculation, but by performance and price appreciation.

The slow bull market in the US stock market essentially reflects the slow bull market of these leading tech stocks. The lifecycle of leading tech stocks is long, and their cyclical rotation is slow, so the experience of holding them for the long term is very good.

The US 'Seven Sisters', with the latest market capitalization, IPO year, IPO price, adjusted current price, approximate increase, and CAGR.

No.1 Apple, latest market value $3.75 trillion, IPO in 1980, price $22, currently $55,214, increase of 2,509 times, 44-year annualized return of 19.5%.

No.2 Microsoft, latest market value $3.32 trillion, IPO in 1986, price $21, currently $129,309, increase of 6,157 times, 38-year annualized return of 25.8%.

No.3 Nvidia, latest market value $3.28 trillion, IPO in 1999, price $12, currently $66,869, increase of 5,572 times, 25-year annualized return of 41.2%.

No.4 Amazon, latest market value $2.39 trillion, IPO in 1997, price $18, currently $55,263, increase of 3,070 times, 27-year annualized return of 34.6%.

No.5 Google, latest market value $2.34 trillion, IPO in 2004, price $85, currently $7,898, increase of 92 times, 20-year annualized return of 25.4%.

No.6 Meta, latest market value $1.56 trillion, IPO in 2012, price $38, currently $632, increase of 16 times, 12-year annualized return of 26%.

No.7 Tesla, latest market value $1.40 trillion, IPO in 2010, price $17, currently $6,390, increase of 375 times, 14-year annualized return of 52.7%. #BTC☀ $ETH

December 15, 2024.

Bitcoin is gradually becoming correlated with the US stock market~~

The trends in the cryptocurrency market are increasingly aligned with the US stock market, almost rising and falling together; liquidity is generally low on weekends.

Trump established a Bitcoin strategic reserve,

BlackRock's spot ETF keeps buying and buying,

(MSTR) has been included in the Nasdaq 100 index.

The implementation of these policies makes it as simple for American civilians to purchase Bitcoin as it is to buy stocks or funds.

Today's Bitcoin is like individual stocks in the Nasdaq.

Sometimes the trends may deviate from the Nasdaq index, but for the vast majority of the time (over 80%), it generally follows the US stock market.

If you don't make arrangements in advance, when the price rises, you'll only be scrambling at the last minute.

The fear of missing out (FOMO) is one of the reasons investors chase after buying coins, and it is also one of the most important reasons for losses.

Chasing high prices to buy coins can only lead to high risks for minimal returns.

Conversely, if you position yourself at lower levels during corrections, you are more likely to achieve several times the return with lower risks.

Do not bet on short-term fluctuations; focus on the cost-effectiveness of the medium to long term.

Avoid chasing high prices, avoid heavily investing in junk, and avoid contract leverage. Lowering the limit on losses is far more important than raising the limit on profits.

If your loss limit is very high, you could lose everything overnight.

How to adjust your mindset?
In fact, mindset is an indispensable part of trading, and it is closely related to your profits and losses.

For example, when you see others making hundreds of thousands or even millions from a single trade, and then look at your own trades, which only earned a few thousand, you might start to fantasize and feel frustrated, wondering why you don't dare to go all in on that trade, why you feel so useless, and why your profits seem so trivial.

At this moment, it is actually a problem with your mindset.

In trading, you should never compare your profits with others. Instead, compare entry points, standing points, and position management. This kind of comparison can help you improve. Little by little, progress can lead to a qualitative change in the end.

There is a saying in the principles of being a person that is equally applicable to trading: "Do not engage in small evils, and do not neglect small goods."
In trading, this translates to: "Do not engage in small losses, and do not neglect small gains."
Especially for those with small capital, when you take profits frequently, your principal will gradually increase, and when a certain opportunity arises, you will have the capital to generate a qualitative change in your funds.
When you incur too many losses, your principal might disappear, and when opportunities arise, they will have nothing to do with you. #BTC☀ $ETH $BNB

Whether it's investment or speculation, the essence of making profits in the financial market is to buy low and sell high.

At low levels, there is a common phenomenon where very few people dare to get in; the lower it gets, the more fear there is, afraid of being trapped.

Alternatively, they wait for the direction to become clear and then chase it; when it really starts to rise, they want to buy on a pullback, until it reaches a very high position before reluctantly choosing to buy in. However, the charm of compound interest lies in buying at low levels, which has a significant advantage. At high levels, one can only take over or run the risk of participating in high risk.

Even if the price has already squeezed out a lot of bubbles, when the true value is revealed, you panic, and instead, when the bubbles emerge, you squeeze as hard as you can. This is human nature.

I repeatedly emphasize that during market panic, one must restrain their inner fear to welcome the dawn, rather than hesitating.

Many times, it’s not that there are no opportunities; it’s that most people cannot seize them.

Even such a simple principle, why can’t the retail investors understand it? Please remember that classic quote: knowing and doing is the hardest gap for humanity to cross. What you need to do is to integrate knowledge and action. If you can’t do that, how can you have the huge bubble price difference that comes from earning the cognitive gap!

Behind every round of significant rises and falls, there is always deep washing. Only by clearing out most of the investors who are bullish can the way be paved for the next round of price increases. The market makers will not pave the way for retail investors; they will only cut them.

The current market makers hold a large concentration of chips, so every fluctuation is exceptionally intense. Altcoins have once again returned to the fluctuation pattern from two weeks ago, and the mentality of retail investors is constantly being worn down in this wave of ups and downs.

After experiencing the fluctuations of gains and losses, the FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) sentiment becomes increasingly strong, and the risk of making mistakes also increases, ultimately leading to losses.

Regarding the AI sector:

It has always been the main theme of this bull market.
Since last year's speculation on AI at small exchanges, AGIX has increased more than tenfold in a month.

This year, there's been crazy speculation on AI on-chain.
Goat, act, etc.
Recently, playing with memes and adding a touch of AI has taken off.

Grasping AI means grasping money.
There are many AI golden dogs on-chain.
Embracing the concept of AI, catching one can lead to profits.
Ethereum has been much stronger lately, and AI on Ethereum is likely to explode as well.
Follow + leave a message in the comments if you have good AI insights.

On the 12th, the European Central Bank lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, marking the fourth rate cut of the year, reducing the deposit rate by 25 basis points to 3%, while also removing the language of maintaining a 'restrictive' rate, opening the door for further rate cuts next year.

On the 12th, the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly cut rates significantly by 50 basis points, while the market had expected a 25 basis point cut. On the 11th, the Bank of Canada cut rates by 50 basis points. The Fed's counterparts have all turned dovish, adding expectations for rate cuts next year in their statements.

Whales are entering the market! Tether has issued another 1 billion USD in USDT! This hot money is being quickly transferred by institutions to major exchanges, signaling that a new wave of buying is about to arrive!

Institutions are really aggressive, having issued 1 billion USDT, and now they're back again today. It seems the second wave of the main upward trend should not be far off, so please be patient and wait with me! ​​​#BTC☀

Bitcoin bull market cycle rules, if you don't know, please share and save this.

In 2012, Bitcoin halved for the first time, and the bull market ended at the end of 2013.

In 2016, Bitcoin halved for the second time, and the bull market ended at the end of 2017.

In 2020, Bitcoin halved for the third time, and the bull market ended at the end of 2021.

In 2024, Bitcoin will halve for the fourth time, and the bull market will end at the end of 2025. ​​​

$ETH $BNB