鸿志论币

It's the weekend again, and this week the market is quite thrilling. Many people didn't have time to board the train before getting shuffled out, directly moving to 73500. Although there was a pullback afterwards, it gave people the idea of stabilizing around 70000. However, there has always been a gap between thoughts and reality. Currently, the lowest point has also pulled back to around 68800. We have enjoyed the ride down from above, and many people got off early on Thursday and Friday, regretting it now, but it's too late. However, it's okay, let's pack our bags and continue. Next week, the major election news is expected to have a significant impact, and the second half of the year will likely depend on this wave for further highs.

So how do we grasp this major news? Of course, there are both the aggressive and conservative approaches. Those who want to take a long position can wait a bit; there is still the possibility of an upward surge in the next few days. For those eager to act, at this point, we still do not recommend heavy operations because the election results are not settled yet. Don't you know the tendencies of the Americans by now? This weekend will still be about fluctuations. In the 69800-69400 range, go high on one side and low on the other. For those who haven't boarded the train yet, wait for a dip to seize the opportunity from this news, keeping a close eye on various messages to react as quickly as possible. Let's encourage each other.

It's been a long time since I analyzed the situation for you. As we all know, the US election is imminent, and the price of the currency has also started to go north. After a few months, 70,000 fell again, and it continued to move north with a strong momentum. Many people who have been doing Dan recently should not be very ideal. They think that there is still a lot of pressure to go above 70,000, but it is just that the public believes that there must be a callback before the election. With the increase in Trump's approval rating and the support of many bigwigs such as Musk, it has started to move north in advance. But the world is uncertain, who can know the outcome?

So now the comrades who have ideas in their hands must be safe, but at this critical period, Chongcang is definitely not okay. Trump has not yet been elected and has sent out such a big signal of going north. During the confirmation period, the appetite must be even greater, so keep remedial measures on hand. If Ms. Ha is elected, then let alone, it may repeat the Waterloo in August.

Around 72,000, the target is 70,000

This week, the air market has ushered in a bull rush to the top, and has reached the highest position in the past two months. It reached around 66,500 in the morning, and has now retreated to around 65,700. The retreat is not very strong. What do we think about the subsequent direction?

There has been a lack of news recently, but we cannot ignore the turmoil in the international arena. Yesterday, there was no sign and it was directly raised by 3,000 or 4,000 points. What a concept, for the recent air market, it is a big move. At present, the duotou is under pressure at 67,000, and it can never stand firm at 66,000. To be safe, we must be close to the high point today. Even if there is a northbound attitude again later, I am not afraid of being trapped.

Near 66,300, the target is 64,000

Yesterday, we mentioned that there was a trend of forming a small series of negative lines. We couldn't hold too much when we did Duo. Sure enough, the pull north before the turning point did not continue, but quickly recovered and moved southward. It came to around 60,300 in the morning. The rebound was still weak and could not return to yesterday's low. So what do we think about the follow-up?

Technically, if we don't consider the CPI data tonight, the negative stacking situation is roughly formed. It is difficult for the hourly line to return to the middle rule. The support near the 60,000 mark is still exerting force. Today, we will definitely test the southward and then rebound. However, with the support of news today, we must deploy Duodan in a relatively safe position. So in terms of thinking, we will first look at the southward situation in the morning. If it reaches 58,800-59,500 in the evening, we can look at the data and gradually look north.

Near 61,000, the target is 60,000

Analyzing the recent air traffic, some people questioned the price of 60,000 a few days ago, and lost momentum when it hit 64,500 the day before yesterday. We can understand that it must be very difficult to rush up again. Yesterday afternoon, it only reached 63,200, and the lowest price at midnight was around 61,800. The price of the currency began to fluctuate in a narrow range, and it is currently fluctuating around 62,300.

Looking back, there was not much change yesterday, the support was not quite strong, and the pressure continued to be output. Although there was an international background, the price of the currency did not fall sharply. The market performance in the short term was still relatively stable. At present, the price of Bitcoin is fluctuating in the range of 60,000-64,500. This rhythm will continue in the next few days. The long and short will pull back and forth around this range. In the short term, it will be mainly a transition of oscillation adjustment. After the adjustment, the price of the currency is expected to break upward. Exchange time for space, just be more patient! Today, pay attention to whether the small support of 61,800 is broken. If its position continues to be unbroken, you can consider going north.

In Hongzhi's opinion, the previous explanations of the golden September and silver October, like last month's statement that September in previous years always went south, are all bullshit. How much did it go up last month? So don't use some previous data or use them to explain some problems. When big news comes, they are all floating clouds. Sticking to your own judgment is the most important thing.

(Strategies are only analyzed in real time when they are issued, and there is timeliness. For more real-time reminders, welcome to private ❤️)

From yesterday evening till now, the highest point reached 63800 and lost momentum. The bottom reached 62700 and there was no courage to go down. This morning, there was no fierceness as in the mornings in recent days. At present, it rebounded to 63800 and the long orders we prompted are also steadily eaten.

From the hourly level, the retracement after yesterday's high has confirmed that the bottom support is stable, and the long position is waiting for time to exert force again, so we will see whether the long position can exert force to break through at midnight. The strength of the breakthrough above is moderate, because it is currently in the stage of accumulating power at high level. There is a lot of money in hand to wait for the rise, and the long position still needs to wait for 4000.

Near 64000, target 62500

Today's thinking is that although the price reached 4700 at noon, many comrades dare not cover it, but it is not a big problem. At present, it has steadily won 1,000 points. It really verified that the weekend shock was just a stacking. Sure enough, it broke a new high on Monday and approached 65,000. The retracement is also large, so it will take time to continue to rise in the next step. So the thinking at midnight changed to a low duo to see whether it will continue to rise in the early morning

63,000 and the target is 65,000

Monday came. After a small fluctuation over the weekend, it was still below 63,000 last night. In the morning, it hit 64,000 in a flash. Although it quickly retreated, there was no sign of continuation on both sides. The recent southward support is around 62,000, and the northward pressure is around 65,000.

In terms of technical analysis, both Duo and Kong have obvious strong games, and the shape is fast and fast, but the hourly line is still a rebound shape after the weekend retreat. The price of the currency returns to Gaowei again, and a long lower shadow is formed at the four-hour level. There is a risk of hitting Gaowei again. At present, Duotou is also strong and Kongtou, but it is in the stage of Gaowei consolidation in the range. If we chase Duo again, the risk will definitely be high, so our idea is to be cautious in Gaowei and Kong, depending on the pressure above.

The short target near 64,000 is 62,500

The air situation on Friday was still very fierce, reaching a high of around 64,150, and then entered a sluggish repair phase. After the opening of the US market, it only went up and down, without giving much room. At midnight, it dropped to around 62,300 and then rebounded to around 63,400. It is currently fluctuating around 63,000.

Since the interest rate cut, the price of the currency has been in a step-up state, breaking through 63,000 on Thursday and 64,000 on Friday, and strongly moving out of the range of fluctuations. It gives people a feeling that if it weren't for Saturday today, it would go up to 65,000 today. Of course, Bitcoin still has upward momentum in the short term, but whether it can break through 67,000 depends on further guidance from the Fed's policy. If the Fed continues to release dovish signals, Bitcoin is expected to continue to rise; on the contrary, if economic data is strong and the US dollar strengthens, Bitcoin may face adjustment pressure. The current price of Cryptocurrency has returned to the 63,000 line. The overall market has formed a seesaw trend, and neither the long nor the short has much continuation. At present, the rhythm has formed a range of shocks. The overall market fluctuates around the upper and lower tracks of the hourly line. Don't look at too many one-sidedness during the weekend. Pay attention to the upper pressure of 64,100, and the lower support of 62,500. You can choose to participate in high-altitude and low-multiple. If the pressure and support are not broken, you can reverse the position. If the entity breaks, follow the trend.

The position given in the morning is slightly lower, but it is not a big problem. The pressure is indeed given, and the upward channel has the momentum to open. Although it has not continued, the retracement is always unsatisfactory. Therefore, we still need to pay attention to the sentiment of the US market in the evening. Comrades who have made up for it are better to reduce their holdings below and keep the opportunity to make up for it.

As expected by the market, the Federal Reserve has started an easing cycle, cutting interest rates for the first time in four years. What makes the market even more excited is that the Fed has cut interest rates by an extraordinary amount at the beginning, and further emphasized the employment target in the dual goals in the resolution statement, reflecting the determination to curb the sharp slowdown in the labor market.

After a 50 basis point interest rate cut, the price of the currency quickly rose to 61,300 and lost its momentum. The surprising interest rate cut did not show a surprising increase. Instead, it rushed down and touched 59,430 and began to rebound. The current rebound is still very fierce, running around 61,300.

It is currently in the upper track breakthrough stage, refreshing the recent high. Today we focus on whether it can stabilize at 61,000 and break through 61,500 in the north. If the upward channel is opened, there is still a long way to go in the north. If the situation cannot be effectively opened, it is not impossible to turn to the bottom. At present, the pressure has been given, and the momentum of the high is slightly insufficient. Bai Pan Hongzhi is optimistic about the decline after the high, first Luo Dai, and then we will continue to look at the north after the retracement.

Around 61500, target 60000

Yesterday, the white market was relatively boring, fluctuating in the range of 60800-59100. There is less than an hour before the interest rate cut is announced. The current probability of a 50 basis point rate cut given by CME has reached 66%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has been reduced to 34%. Personally, I think that with a 25 basis point rate cut in this round, the divergence of funds will be smaller, and the expectation of recession will also be weakened, but if the interest rate is directly cut by 50 basis points, it may cause market panic, causing funds to leave the market and wait and see, which is not conducive to the price trend of risky assets. The interest rate cut process is a long-term event. The overall logic is that it will definitely occur with the interest rate cut, and market liquidity will get better and better, but the effect on the capital market will not be apparent until the later stage of the interest rate cut cycle. Therefore, it is safe to wait for the opportunity to enter, and the incentive is to stick to yesterday's ideas unchanged.

Yesterday's air situation really touched our hearts, and the stable Luodai just called it at the top. At present, the price of the currency has retreated to around 60,000 and fluctuated. Today is Wednesday, and tomorrow will be a critical day. The trend of the past two days has started to continue the ups and downs after the US market, so we must pay serious attention to the sentiment of the US market.

This wave of pull-up is another breakthrough, because it broke through the 61,000 mark. In the short term, Bitcoin is currently under the pressure of 61,500 above and has started to adjust and fall. The lower 59,800 will become the watershed of the recent long and short trends. Once it stabilizes and continues to attack, it is very likely to continue to refresh the high point of last night. The short-term moving average is about to form a dead cross. Once a dead cross is formed, Bitcoin will have room for adjustment downward. At present, there are multiple top structures at high levels, and it is temporarily difficult to break upward, so wait for this wave of callbacks to be in place, and then continue to follow the trend to see a new round of breakthroughs.

Near 59,500, the target is 61,500

Brothers, good news came again in the evening. It's a holiday. Hongzhi successfully predicted its northward movement. The morning strategy successfully took more than 2,000 points. It is currently testing the top pressure, which is unstoppable. If you are safe, you can go to Luodai first, and if you are aggressive, you can continue to wait.

I got the position to eat meat in the morning. I believe that the best holiday gift is nothing more than this. I wish you a happy holiday again. You don’t need to send me any holiday gifts. Your existence is the biggest gift to me.

At noon, it was under pressure near 58700. Although it is currently in the retracement stage, the retracement is not as strong as before. The price of the currency has the intention to return to the upper track of the hour, so it is safer to trade at present. Be cautious. If you have time to trade in the evening, you can still trade lightly.

This is only a few points of fluctuation. Let me reiterate that those who like to do heavy positions can unfollow and bypass. If you can't bear the fluctuation of 3,000 or 4,000 points here, don't do it. I won't take you to take this risk. If you can't bear the fluctuation of more than 1,000 points, you are really not suitable for HY.

At midnight, the price of the currency went south again and stopped at around 57,500. The southward range was still within the controllable range. We pulled it to around 58,200. It is currently rebounding above 58,000, which is safe again.

In terms of the current form, the big cake daily line touched the middle track support after a series of negatives. After running overnight, there was no continuation of the action, and BOLL showed signs of gradually flattening. Pay attention to its support in the morning. If it does not break, treat it as a range first, and buy at lows first. In the short-term 4-hour chart, after the price of the currency fell back and touched the 4-hour lower track, it closed the cross star K line continuously, indicating that the two sides were evenly matched, but the attached indicators have already turned around, and there is a certain rebound demand in the short term. In the short-term operation in the morning, the idea of ​​doing a rebound is unchanged, and the pressure level is not broken before considering the kong

57800 near the target of 59000

After the US market opened, the support near 58,000 was stressed again. The highest rebound of the white market was around 59,150 and then lost momentum. The support is still stable. It was mentioned near 9,000 in the morning and entered the market. It was pulled to around 58,600 at noon. Those who couldn't hold back had already sold it at 59,000. Although it has retreated again, Hongzhi believes that squatting is for better standing up. Be patient.

The weekend volatility range began to move out of the early morning of Monday. This week is destined to be extraordinary. The price of the currency began to retreat at midnight, and it also went downhill to 59,000 in the morning. Many brothers have untied their positions again. Yesterday, the strategy of high-altitude and low-multiple should have some people staying near 59,300. You can rest assured now. The price of the currency began to rebound near 58,600 and is now back above 59,000.

How to look at it in retrospect, Hongzhi believes that this is a good opportunity to go south to pick up people. You must know clearly what will happen this week. The news that has affected the market recently is the old three: the Federal Reserve is about to cut interest rates; the US debt crisis is "like a sword hanging over the head"; the end of the war is far away; these three crises are inseparable from risk aversion, and the main focus is still risk aversion. This trend of risk aversion may continue for a long time. Therefore, in recent operations, we must carefully consider and take good risk control measures. There are only three days left before the Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision on September 18, local time in the United States. The market suddenly increased its bets on a "50 basis point rate cut." The latest data shows that swap market traders expect the probability of the Federal Reserve choosing to cut interest rates sharply next week to suddenly rise to 50%, while the probability was only 15% before. Stimulated by the expectation of a sharp interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the global market has begun to stir. Among them, the US stock market has achieved the largest weekly increase so far this year, and the price of gold has soared sharply to set a record high. The market will focus on this week, so make good intraday plans!

Near 59,000, the target is 61,000

Friday's white plate can be said to be very sluggish, but we can still get a lot of gains from the back and forth. We entered the high-risk 58,500 kong, and 59,000 was hit and stopped, giving up 500 points of profit. The cabin is not large, which is completely acceptable. The mood of comparing prices at midnight and going north is fierce, which really verifies the saying. Be prepared for the situation like last Friday. Hongzhi's first cabin entered at 59,400 kong, and there is a chance to replenish the cabin, so we are not afraid of being trapped. After the early morning surge, it also pulled to around 59,800, and it was also untied yesterday afternoon. The current price is above 60,000.

Bitcoin did not fluctuate too much this weekend, and the price basically remained around 60,000 and fluctuated all day. The daily line closed with a small positive K-line. The daily line entered the blunt tug-of-war, with a gap in the rise and a lack of strength in the fall. Is it accumulating the second wave or stopping the rise and falling? At present, with the delay of time and the bluntness of the daily K-line pattern. The short-term direction is more confusing. A large real body K-line is needed to break the current deadlock. At present, the price is fluctuating between the middle and upper tracks of the Bollinger Bands. Yesterday, the lower track rebounded to the upper track under pressure. The closing price was at the middle track at the end of the trading day. As the range has converged and the short-term bullish and bearish forces are insufficient, the current direction is unclear. It is also a cycle of choosing a direction. After the previous downward exploration, it stabilized slightly, but it was slow to break through the previous high point, which made the second wave of pushing the rise insufficient. Continue to wait for the consolidation and accumulation of momentum, and focus on the range in the short term. The technical structure is currently in a contraction and oscillation, and it is necessary to wait for the stimulus of the news to break the deadlock. The interest rate cut will be implemented this week, and the long-term sentiment is high, so whether there will be a sharp correction on Monday as in the past is somewhat slim. It should fall sideways and then rise again. The short-term thinking in the evening will continue to maintain the oscillation thinking before breaking the range, and continue to participate in the high-altitude and low-long around the range.

Today's white plate can be said to be very sluggish, but we can still make a lot of money going back and forth. We entered at a high risk of 58,500 yuan, and have been stopped at present, giving up 500 points of profit. The cabin space is not large, which is completely acceptable. The price comparison at midnight was fierce and the mood to go north was really verified. Be prepared for the situation like last Friday. Hongzhi has already entered the first cabin at 59,400 yuan, and there is still a chance to replenish the cabin, so we are not afraid of being trapped. Let's wait for the result together.