锦琦-女侠

The direction is wrong, running is in vain; with the right strategy, you achieve twice the result with half the effort.

Don't rely on luck to gamble on tomorrow; choosing the right direction is more important. Say goodbye to blind trial and error, and easily take control of your wealth.

Big pancake thinking

Short-term support at 80600; if it fails, we will see big pancakes starting with 7 again. Resistance at 85000, and before stabilizing, it will be biased towards a bearish fluctuation.

Operation suggestion: Strictly control positions (≤30%), mainly observe; aggressive traders can try small positions to go long in the 81000-81500 range, and exit decisively if it breaks below 80000.

Gold View:

Focus on high selling and low buying within a range, refusing to blindly chase after rises or sell on dips; strictly control positions, setting stop-loss for every trade, avoid protracted battles and holding onto losing positions, in line with the intraday rhythm of 'rally, sell, and pull back'.

Specific point strategy

1. Short strategy (priority layout)

First short area: 4520-4526 (near pressure point), enter lightly after the market touches, stop-loss above 4550 (to avoid extreme breakout risks), target down to the 4500 integer point, extend to 4470 after breaking.
Second short area: 4545-4550 (strong pressure point), if unexpectedly rising to this range, decisively increase short positions, stop-loss above 4560, target directly to the 4500-4480 range.

2. Long strategy (wait for stabilization before entering)

First long area: 4470-4475 (key support), after a pullback stabilizes (such as a bullish engulfing or a doji), enter lightly, stop-loss below 4440, target up to 4500-4510.
Second long area: 4440-4445 (strong support), if deeply retreating to this range, can add long positions in batches, stop-loss below 4430, target looking at the 4480-4500 rebound space.

Key risk control points

The 4500 level is the dividing line between long and short; if it continues to be under pressure below this position during the day, there is a high probability of accelerating downward in the evening, and shorts can hold to 4440; if unexpectedly stabilizing at 4500 with increased volume, temporarily adjust the mindset, wait and see or lightly follow long to 4520 and stop.
Without major positive support, the bulls have not stabilized even with three new highs, beware of 'deep pullback after enticing the bulls', any rise that fails to break the pressure point can add shorts.

Evening volatility may amplify, if the target is not reached after 22:00, it is recommended to gradually reduce positions and exit, avoiding overnight holding facing holiday volatility risks.

In the short term, gold is technically overbought, triggering a demand for a pullback. However, the expectations of easing from the Federal Reserve and geopolitical risks provide strong support, effectively locking in the pullback space! With the Christmas holiday approaching, market liquidity is tightening, and high volatility in gold prices is a foregone conclusion; chasing prices upward is just giving away money.

In the medium term, the trend of Federal Reserve rate cuts remains unchanged, and the global central bank gold buying spree is in full swing, with the core logic of the bulls remaining steadfast! Once the key resistance level is broken, gold prices will head straight for the target range of 4750—4900 USD, and Goldman Sachs has even stated directly: aiming for 4900 USD by the end of 2026! If you miss this wave, you will have to wait another ten years.

In the long term, the global de-dollarization wave is surging, and real interest rates are hovering at low levels in the medium to long term, creating a slow bull pattern for gold that is firmly established! The only thing to be cautious about is if there is a blowout in U.S. economic data or a sudden shift in Federal Reserve policy, which could trigger a medium-term adjustment. However, in the face of the trend, this level of turbulence is insignificant.

Hardcore operation guide

1. Core iron rule: Do not chase prices in the short term, a pullback is an opportunity to give away money; patiently wait for support levels before taking action!
2. Keep a close eye on the lifeline: U.S. dollar index, real yields on U.S. bonds, and geopolitical situation; these three indicators determine the direction, and missing one could lead to missing out!
3. Precision intraday targeting: If there is a pullback to the 4471—4455 range, decisively go long, aiming directly for 4515—4525. With these levels provided, you can confidently enter even with your eyes closed!

Spot gold has once again set a new historical high! The bull market logic has not wavered at all!\n \nOn the morning of December 22, the gold price directly broke through the October high of $4381.4 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 65%. The expectation of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in 2026 is becoming more and more fervent, and the double buff of the Christmas and New Year holidays combined with geopolitical instability makes gold a highly sought-after safe-haven asset.\n \nWhat’s even more intense is that global funds are frantically rushing to buy! Data from the World Gold Council shows that gold ETFs have seen net inflows for six consecutive months, with $5.2 billion pouring in during November alone, setting historical peaks in holdings and assets under management.\n \nLu Zhe, a big shot at Dongwu Securities, directly pointed out: central banks are buying and buying, de-dollarization, and geopolitical fragmentation are the long-term direction. Coupled with the U.S. fiscal debt bomb, the demand for gold as a credit hedge will only increase, not decrease, ensuring a stable upward trend in the medium to long term!

Golden Week Monday Morning Thoughts: The bullish momentum is strong, continue to be bullish without hesitation!

Good morning to all investment friends, Monday morning is here! A new week has started, let's directly discuss the key points——the core thought for gold this morning: firmly bullish!

First, let’s take a look at the current macro environment, which is really friendly to gold. The gold bull market in 2025 is evident to all, having risen 50% from the beginning of the year to now, a definite 'top-performing asset'. Why is it so strong? The core reason is the Fed's loose monetary policy providing support, having cumulatively cut interest rates by 125 basis points, and the market expects further cuts in 2026, lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold, while the dollar index has also dropped nearly 10%. How can gold priced in dollars not be attractive?

Moreover, with geopolitical tensions acting as a 'calming pill', the Middle East conflict continues, and the Russia-Ukraine war is still ongoing, with global uncertainty at such a high level, funds will surely flow to safe havens. Gold, as a traditional safe haven, naturally becomes highly sought after. More critically, central banks are aggressively hoarding gold, with the People's Bank of China increasing its holdings for 13 consecutive months, and the net amount of gold purchased globally in the first three quarters has reached 634 tons, with 95% of central banks stating they will continue buying in the future. This level of demand can provide strong support for gold prices.

From a technical perspective, there’s not much to be confused about; the weekly chart is still running above the 5-10 week moving averages, and the bullish trend remains intact. Although the daily chart experiences occasional fluctuations, it is overall above the short-term moving averages, and yesterday’s rebound that closed positive alleviated previous concerns about a peak. After the market opened this morning, London gold is still fluctuating around $4350 per ounce, just a step away from the previous historical high of $4374, and a breakout is only a matter of time.

In terms of operation, it doesn’t have to be too complicated; it’s still safer to focus on low buying. The key support level to watch below is $4320-$4315; if it pulls back to this range, it would be a good entry opportunity. Above, first look at the resistance at $4370-$4375, and once it breaks, follow the trend with a target towards $4390 or even higher. Of course, stop-loss measures must be in place, maintaining the $4300 level to avoid short-term volatility disrupting the rhythm.

In summary, whether it’s macro policies, risk aversion demand, or technical patterns, they are all supporting the bullish stance on gold. There’s no need to hesitate in Monday morning trading, follow the trend, maintain a bullish outlook, and seize the opportunity to enter on pullbacks!

Crude Oil Monday Morning Thoughts: Mainly Bearish with Fluctuations, Shorting on Rebounds is More Reliable!

Good morning to all friends trading crude oil! As the new week opens, let's directly discuss the core operational thought for crude oil — overall bearish fluctuations, don't blindly chase the long side, shorting on rebounds is more reliable!

First, let's talk about the current macro environment; there isn't much positive support for oil prices. Multiple institutions are lowering demand expectations. OPEC, IEA, as well as major institutions like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are either saying that global oil demand growth is slowing or directly lowering the oil price targets for this year and next. The core reason is the weak global economic outlook, combined with tariff policies dragging down demand, which really hinders crude oil demand from picking up. The supply side is also concerning; OPEC+ previously mentioned increasing production, and the market is already oversupplied, making it even worse. Oil prices struggle to gain upward momentum.

Looking at the technical side, on the daily chart, crude oil is still moving within a downward channel, with medium to long-term moving averages all trending downward, clearly in a weak pattern. Although there was a slight uptick on Friday due to geopolitical news, the overall week still saw declines, and it has now dropped for two consecutive weeks, with the rebound strength being noticeably insufficient. This morning, the opening price of WTI crude is around $56.5, with critical support at $55-$55.5. If it breaks below, it’s very likely to test the previous low of $54.98 again; the resistance above is also clear, with the $57.5-$58.5 range facing both moving average pressure and previous high points, making a breakout challenging.

In terms of operations, here are the key points: focus mainly on shorting at high prices, and only consider small positions for going long. If oil prices rebound to around $57.5-$58 and show signs of pressure, such as failing to rise or the K-line closing bearish, then consider entering a short position, with a stop-loss above $58.5, initially targeting $56, and if that breaks, look down to $55.5-$55. For going long at low prices, only wait for a pullback to the $55-$55.5 support level, confirm stabilization, and then participate with a small position, ensuring the stop-loss is below $54.8 to avoid being caught in a breaking support scenario.

In summary, the overall trend for crude oil is still bearish, with both the fundamental and technical aspects not supporting a significant rise. There’s no need to rush into trades this Monday morning; patiently wait for rebound shorting opportunities or low long opportunities at stabilized support levels, manage your stop-losses and avoid greed, and follow the weak market rhythm!

ETH sideways struggle hard to break through! 2980 level becomes the lifeline for bulls

ETH continues to trade sideways, last night's rally only reached the 2980 resistance level before facing pressure and falling back, failing to achieve an effective breakthrough.

The intra-day rebound pressure range remains unchanged at 2980-3015; as long as this range holds, the strength of the bullish rebound will continue to be limited. The key support below is focused on 2880, and once it is lost, the market is likely to enter a new round of decline, with subsequent support targets looking down at 2800, 2700, and 2600.

If the market strongly breaks through the 3015 resistance level, the rebound space above will be opened up, potentially looking further up towards around 3100.

Federal Reserve Game + Trump Statement! The life-and-death battle at the 4300 gold level will begin tonight

The interest rate cut cycle remains unchanged, and the policy fog is hard to clear! The Federal Reserve's last heavy statement of the year, combined with Trump's policy tone, is creating a double storm sweeping through the gold market, with spot gold consolidating at the key level of 4230 USD. Can the bulls break through the 4300 integer level and aim for historical highs? Four major core events will successively ignite the US market trend!

21:15 Federal Reserve Governor Waller will give a significant speech. As a popular candidate for the Federal Reserve chair, his interest rate path and inflation statements directly impact market nerves—hawkish rhetoric may trigger profit-taking, and gold prices could drop to the 4180 support; if dovish signals are released, it will further strengthen rate cut expectations, and gold is likely to launch an attack towards 4300.

22:00 Trump’s policy speech is the grand finale, with tariff measures and policy framework as the core highlights. If the attitude is tough, it will raise inflation stickiness, combined with concerns about US dollar credit, which will inject strong upward momentum into gold; if the statements are mild, it may trigger a rebound in the US dollar, and gold prices are likely to fall back to around 4220 for consolidation.

22:05 New York Fed President Williams focuses on US dollar liquidity, and his speech will set the tone for market liquidity expectations. Once dovish signals are released, expectations for liquidity easing will heat up, and the attractiveness of gold as a non-interest-bearing asset will significantly increase, giving bulls the best opportunity to increase positions.

Next day 01:30 Atlanta Fed President Bostic interprets the economic outlook, and his stance directly influences safe-haven fund flows. If he continues to emphasize inflation risks with a hawkish stance, gold prices may come under pressure to adjust; if he acknowledges the cooling labor market and economic slowdown trend, safe-haven buying will gather again, adding momentum for gold's upward attack.

The current market still has disagreements about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations in 2026, but the continuation of the rate cut cycle, central bank gold purchasing demand, and the reconstruction of US dollar credit as long-term supports remain unchanged. Institutions have raised gold price expectations to above 4500 USD. Tonight, the four major events will successively clear the policy fog, and the direction choice amid the high volatility of gold is about to be revealed!

In the early session, gold rose to the resistance level of 4318 before encountering a pullback. The daily chart has recorded consecutive long upper shadows, highlighting a decrease in upward momentum at high levels, with a clear short-term resistance forming around 4320. On the 4-hour chart, the short-term moving averages are gradually turning downward, and the candlestick chart continues to be under pressure below the moving average system, showing a weak operating trend. Key support needs to be closely monitored in the 4265-4270 area. The hourly chart entered a low-level narrow range fluctuation pattern after hitting a bottom, indicating a need for technical pattern repair. A slight rebound may occur in the short term, but the overall trend remains weak, and during the European session, caution should be exercised regarding further downward price risks.

In terms of operational strategy, a light long position can be attempted when the price first touches the double bottom support area of 4258-4260. If the trend continues to weaken, wait for confirmation of the support level's retest before planning further. The 4300 level serves as a secondary pressure point for the day; when facing resistance during a rebound, considering high-entry positions may be advisable. The overall approach focuses on "mainly shorting on rebounds, with supporting longs on corrections." Short-term resistance is noted in the 4320-4330 range, while support should be closely monitored around 4260-4250. It is essential to strictly control risks during operations and set reasonable stop losses.

Tuesday Gold Analysis:

The 4-hour stochastic indicator has directly crossed downwards, with strong bearish signals!

The MACD dual lines are stagnating, with a temporary stalemate between bulls and bears!
Continuous bearish candles are hammering down, and the rhythm of the oscillation and decline is clear, with the key support at 4290 as solid as a rock!
Today's strong-weak dividing line is set at: 4290-4318!
If it breaks below 4290, the bears will directly crush downwards; if it stands above 4318, the bulls will strongly counterattack!

In the short term, mindless trading in the range oscillation, high sell and low buy at 4290-4320.

Gold: Short position at 4290-4295, target 4318, if it breaks through, continue to look upwards, short at 4340-4345, targets 4300, 4290.

Monday Thought Analysis:

The strong rise over the weekend broke the downward rhythm, and last night saw a high surge followed by a sharp brake into adjustment. This rebound is either the beginning of a new rising cycle or just a wave trend.

The key signals are clear: the daily moving averages are collectively turning upwards, bullish momentum is continuously being released, and the adjustment is merely a short-term recharge! Currently, the sideways repair is a healthy pullback, and the probability of a second rise in the future is very high. There is no need to get tangled in the adjustment space; just go long directly in the short term.

Bitcoin: buy around 90900-90200, target 93000, breakthrough looking at around 95000,
Ethereum: buy around 3010-2950, target 3200, breakthrough looking at around 3500.

Friday Analysis:

The channel is in a sideways trend with narrowing bandwidth, and market volatility has dropped to a low level! More crucially, the price has broken the middle track, and the bulls can't hold on anymore; it is likely to go down in the short term!

Those who understand, understand; this kind of directional choice after convergence is often a precursor to a big market movement. Should we get on board together to take advantage of the pullback?

Bitcoin around 91800-92500, target around 90500-89800
Ethereum around 3060-3100, target around 2970-2920

Thursday Thought Analysis:

The 4-hour chart shows a strong breakout with four consecutive bullish candles! The bulls are fully engaged, and trading volume is increasing, establishing a solid one-sided trend. The subsequent upward momentum is poised for a significant rise! Although the 1-hour chart shows a tug-of-war near the upper Bollinger Band with alternating minor bearish and bullish movements, the step-up structure remains intact, indicating a healthy consolidation phase—short-term fluctuations are narrowing, which instead solidifies the foundation for an upward move. Be patient and hold on, waiting for a new round of increases!

Bitcoin: around 89500-90000, target 91200-93000.
Ethereum: around 2880-2930, target 3030-3200.

The stars do not disappoint those who strive, and candlesticks favor those with heart! Stay up the latest night, make the most accurate trades, and high win rate strategies never fail those who persist~33700 oil secured

Thursday Thought Analysis:

The hourly BOLL opening is widening + the moving averages are diverging, which seems strong, but the price accurately hits double resistance: the previous area of high trading volume + the pressure point of the right shoulder in a head and shoulders pattern, in the case of insufficient volume, do not blindly chase long positions!

Bitcoin: around 91000-91500, target around 89800-89200
Ethereum: around 3080-3130, target around 2970-2920

Evening Thought Analysis:

Accurately capturing Dian Wei's key signals on the hourly chart: breaking the middle track + increased volume, support turning into resistance solidified! The bears completely hold the initiative, showing no signs of a rebound after breaking, directly heading towards the lower track, the trend is clear without hesitation, those who understand know, follow and reap the rewards without hesitation～

Bitcoin point: 88200-88800 range, target 86000-85400 range
Ethereum: 2960-3010 range, target 2860-2810 range

Wednesday Thought Analysis:

The hourly BOLL band has "closed the door", and market fluctuations are becoming smaller! Dian Wei just broke through the middle track and then "lost momentum", falling back to the same place to consolidate, indicating that the bulls are really not strong! Next, either gather strength to charge again or directly pull back, keep a close eye on the middle track gains and losses, the opportunity is right in front of us!

Bitcoin: around 88800-92000, target around 86800-86200
Ethereum: around 3000-3040, target around 2900-2850