水果大将

Bitcoin fell below $90,000 on Monday evening Eastern Time, reaching its lowest level in seven months. "The breach of the $90,000 mark during today’s trading session highlights the current fragility of the market," said Rachael Lucas, a cryptocurrency analyst at BTC Markets. "Institutional investors are the main sellers, and ETF outflows indicate that investors are taking profits and adopting hedging positions ahead of the year-end." "The long-term value of Bitcoin as digital gold has not changed, but the short-term selling by traders and leveraged players, along with funds adjusting their exposure, is putting pressure on prices," said Vincent Liu, Chief Investment Officer at Kronos Research. "The drop below $90,000 is a short-term correction, with the recent support range between $85,000 and $87,000," Liu stated. "Recovering the $90,000 mark is crucial for buyers to regain confidence, especially given that the current fear and greed index is only 11, and market sentiment remains quite subdued." $BTC

This thing is really hard. Brothers who are fitted, come check in, let me ease my mood!

The CEO of the encrypted asset management platform Bitwise, Hunter Horsley, stated that the traditional 4-year cycle model is based on the past era of cryptocurrencies. Since the launch of the Bitcoin ETF and the new government's assumption of office, the market has entered a completely new structure, with new participants, new dynamics, and new buying and selling motivations.

Hunter Horsley believes that the crypto market has likely experienced nearly 6 months of a bear market and is about to emerge from the low point. The current market environment for cryptocurrencies is unprecedentedly strong. $BTC

Foresight News message, Blockstream co-founder Adam Back stated on platform X that the Bitcoin treasury company Strategy has been continuously buying Bitcoin. The previous wallet switch was merely transferring Bitcoin to another custodian and did not involve selling. The leverage of Strategy is actually very low, currently holding Bitcoin worth 64 billion dollars, with liabilities of only 8 billion dollars, resulting in a leverage ratio of about 13%. Moreover, its debts are all long-term debts, and there is no need for short-term repayment. $BTC

According to ChainCatcher, Arkham data shows that at 03:26, 2,001,000 TON (worth approximately $3.7019 million) was transferred from an anonymous address to TON. Subsequently, the address transferred part of the TON to the Elector Contract. $TON

The number of Ethereum validators has decreased by about 10% since July, falling back to levels seen in April 2024. This is the first time since the transition to a proof-of-stake mechanism that a continuous exit of validators has occurred.

As of November 11, the daily active number of Ethereum validators has dropped below 1 million for the first time since April 28, currently standing at 999,203. The exit queue waiting time has reached a historical high of 17.6 days; at the same time, the waiting time for validators to join has surged to 22 days, with approximately 1.2 million ETH waiting to be staked, possibly related to the decrease in staking yields. $ETH

Polymarket predicts that the probability of Bitcoin falling below $90,000 within the year has risen to 70%, the probability of falling below $80,000 within the year is 26%, and the probability of exceeding $120,000 is 22%. Currently, the trading volume of this prediction pool has exceeded $54.75 million. $BTC

Understanding 💡 The U.S. government's "opening" and the decline in Bitcoin prices seem to have little correlation, but there may be multiple underlying market logic influences at play. This short-term volatility is often the result of macro expectations, capital flows, and market sentiment working together.

### 1. Potential Impact Pathways of the U.S. Government's "Opening"
The end of the U.S. government shutdown (i.e., "opening") typically means that the uncertainty surrounding fiscal policy is temporarily alleviated, but the direct impact of this event on cryptocurrencies is limited; it is more about indirect transmission channels:
1. **"Inverse Switch" in Risk Appetite**
During the government shutdown, market risk-averse sentiment may drive up short-term demand for Bitcoin and other "alternative safe-haven assets"; as the shutdown ends and policy uncertainty decreases, capital may flow back from Bitcoin to traditional risk assets like the stock market, leading to temporary sell-offs in Bitcoin.
2. **Changes in Dollar Liquidity Expectations**
After the government resumes operations, the market may refocus on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy (such as interest rate hike expectations). If the U.S. dollar index strengthens, Bitcoin priced in dollars may come under pressure.

### 2. Core Driving Factors for Bitcoin's Decline
In addition to the indirect correlations mentioned above, the more critical reasons may stem from the cryptocurrency market itself and the macro environment:

#### 1. Expectations of Macroeconomic Liquidity Tightening
- After the U.S. government "opens", market attention returns to Federal Reserve policies. If economic data shows persistent inflation, expectations for interest rate hikes may rise (or expectations for rate cuts may wane), leading to tightening global liquidity, with high-risk assets (including Bitcoin) bearing the brunt.
- Bitcoin is often viewed as a "liquidity-sensitive asset"; rising U.S. dollar financing costs will diminish its attractiveness.

#### 2. Internal Risks in the Cryptocurrency Industry
- **Regulatory Pressure**: Regulatory scrutiny from institutions like the U.S. SEC on cryptocurrencies (such as reviews of exchanges and stablecoins) may trigger market concerns.
- **Industry Credit Events**: If there are major institutional collapses or project failures, it may lead to panic selling.
- **Technical Adjustments**: If Bitcoin has previously experienced a phase of rising prices, profit-taking may trigger a technical correction. $BTC

Chainlink's associated LINK $14.53 continued to decline on Thursday, dropping nearly 5% in the past 24 hours, falling below $14.50, as technical selling pressure outweighed buying strength.

CoinDesk data shows that LINK's price fell from $15.26 to $14.73 on the same day, before continuing to decline, reaching its lowest level since late October. The token's performance lagged behind the CoinDesk 5 index, which fell by 3.7% over the past 24 hours.

CoinDesk Research's technical analysis model indicates that during the price crash, LINK's trading volume surged to 3.32 million tokens, about 118% higher than the daily average, confirming the complete failure of the resistance level between $15.00 and $15.26. Between UTC time 17:05 and 17:41, LINK experienced rapid three-wave liquidations, with over 360,000 LINK traded in a matter of minutes, as the downward momentum intensified, pushing LINK's price towards a new support level around $14.40.

Even with the price drop, on-chain data shows that the protocol continues to accumulate. According to Chainlink Reserve data, the institution purchased another 74,049 LINK on Thursday, bringing its total holdings to over 800,000 tokens. The average acquisition cost on the reserve dashboard is close to $20, leading to reserves being approximately 27% below their stock.

As LINK falls below $14.50, traders now face a narrower risk window: a drop below the $14.40 to $14.50 range could open space for a decline to $14.20, while reclaiming $15.00 remains a threshold for stabilizing short-term momentum.

Key technical levels to watch
Support/Resistance: $14.40 to $14.50 constitutes direct support; resistance levels are at $15.00 and $15.26.
Volume Analysis: The failure rate is 118% above average, indicating that institutional investors are exerting selling pressure.
Chart Patterns: Trend lines have clearly been broken, confirming a downward reversal trend since recent highs.
Targets and Risk/Reward: Holding above $14.40 could limit the downside to $14.20; to achieve recovery, prices need to break above $15.26. $LINK

Cryptanalysis expert @ali_charts stated that if this Bitcoin cycle is similar to the trends of 2015-2018 or 2018-2022, then the peak occurred on October 26, and the macro downtrend may have already begun. $BTC

CME data shows that the market's expectation probability for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points today has reached 99.4%, and the rate cut itself is no longer in doubt. What everyone is really focusing on is Powell's press conference at 2:30 AM; will he hint at the future path of rate cuts, quantitative tightening policy, and the economic outlook?
Market pricing indicates that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by a total of 50 basis points at the December meeting is as high as 91.3%, and traders generally bet that the easing cycle will continue until early next year. However, some analysts say that the real bombshell signal is not the rate cut, but whether Powell will hint at the imminent stop of quantitative tightening.
Famous cryptocurrency trader Bull Theory emphasizes that if Powell confirms that QT will end in the next 1-2 months, it is more important than the first rate cut in September last year. Because QT means the Federal Reserve is withdrawing $60 billion from the financial system every month, and once it stops, new monetary supply will flow more smoothly into the stock market and cryptocurrency market. After the Federal Reserve ended balance sheet reduction in September 2019, Bitcoin soared from $8,000 to $14,000 within three months, which is a prime example.

A certain whale deposited 5,058,000 USDC into Hyperliquid and shorted ETH with 10x leverage.
They say the Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates a lot, is that true?

Oh my, another liquidation, a full 400 million is gone, this luck is just too bad!

Look at now, the panic index is only 32, and the market is filled with an atmosphere of extreme panic. Investors are all in a frenzy, wildly selling off their positions. When I checked my holding records, my heart sank. At the moment of the liquidation, Bitcoin happened to drop to its lowest point, as if it were being tightly gripped by someone, it's just too eerie!

The current market liquidity is simply terrible, the off-exchange OTC market can hardly bear such huge selling pressure, all the pressure rushes towards the spot exchanges. Coins like TAO and ASTER are even worse, with a drop of over 12% in just one day, the price trend is as thrilling as a roller coaster, making people feel anxious and scared.

To be honest, this panic is completely different from those small disturbances in the past, it makes my heart uneasy. The China-U.S. trade war has started stirring again, and Trump's tariff policy has plunged global risk assets into a quagmire of decline, with the cryptocurrency market being the hardest hit, becoming the disaster area of disaster areas.

However, upon calming down to think, based on historical experience, every time such extreme panic combined with large-scale deleveraging occurs, it often signals a market bottom. Take the incident on May 19, 2021, for example, when the panic index dropped to the 20s, and two months later Bitcoin reached a new high.

But this time the macro environment is indeed very different from before. The tense geopolitical situation, the uncertainty of the U.S. government shutdown, and the ambiguity of regulatory policies, these three major issues are like heavy boulders, making the market unable to breathe. No one knows whether the market will test the bottom again next, it really makes one worry immensely.

Are you going to deliver takeout again?

Since the significant market decline on October 11, the behavioral patterns of Bitcoin whales have changed dramatically. On-chain data shows that many wallets, which have long been dormant, have suddenly become active, with a large amount of Bitcoin being transferred to exchanges. At the same time, the proportion of whale trading on exchanges has also soared to an all-time high.

What signals are these signs conveying? Various indicators suggest that large holders are strengthening their control over the market, and their selling pressure has become a key factor preventing Bitcoin prices from breaking through 110,000 USD recently. Observations indicate that wallets that have been dormant for one or two years, or even three to five years, are being activated, and addresses holding over 14,000 Bitcoins have also begun to take action; such a scale of Bitcoin flow is by no means a small number.

More direct evidence comes from the amount of Bitcoin flowing into exchanges. On October 15, over 17,000 Bitcoins were transferred to exchanges in a single day, worth nearly 200 million USD, setting the highest single-day inflow record for this month. It is well known that transferring Bitcoin from personal wallets to exchanges often means that holders are either preparing to sell or have already embarked on the selling process.

Today (October 15) Binance Alpha launches projects Whitebridge Network (WBAI) and Recall (RECALL) introduction, starts at 19:00
Streamlined version:
① Recall (RECALL), a US AI project with $42 million in financing, has launched on multiple exchanges, with Binance contracts, focusing on.
② Whitebridge Network (WBAI), an AI project with undisclosed financing, is the 10th MVB on Binance Smart Chain, Cake.PAD is launching new projects, cost 0.008u, over-subscribed by 800 times, only launched on a few small exchanges.
③ Additionally, the previous Pre-TGE YB will open Alpha trading at 18:00, and before trading opens, it will be airdropped to Alpha2.0 accounts, no manual claiming is required.
Recall (RECALL)
Introduction: $42 million in financing, backed by USV and Coinbase, a US project, decentralized verifiable AI agent platform.
Total supply: 1 billion, issued on BASE chain
Circulating supply: 201.07 million (20.11%)
Launch time: Binance Alpha 20:00, Binance contracts 20:30
Exchanges launched: Binance Alpha, bitget, bybit, kucoin, matcha
Evaluation: A high-financing AI agent platform, a US project, backed by Coinbase, launched on multiple exchanges, launched Binance contracts.
Whitebridge Network (WBAI)
Introduction: The 10th MVB project on Binance Smart Chain, established in 2023, an artificial intelligence agent network that transforms human data intelligence by combining AI technology with decentralized data infrastructure.
Total supply: 1 billion
Circulating supply: 190 million (19%)
Launch time: 19:00
Exchanges launched: Binance Alpha, gate, kucoin, matcha (20:00)
Evaluation: An AI project, Pancakeswap has new projects ending today at 19:00, with a quantity of 20 million WBAI, cost 0.008u, currently over-subscribed by 800 times ($112 million), with no limit on CAKE deposits, it's a game for big players.