圈论

Today is August 23. I have seen the statements of the Fed officials. In fact, after carefully reading the statements of each official, I can see that they basically maintain an observational attitude towards the future situation. This point may be relatively different from the current hype of the Fed. In particular, the three influential Fed officials have a prudent decision on the issues of inflation and employment. The current employment indicators in the United States, even if the unemployment rate is 4.1 to 4.3, compared with the historical low of 5%, there is still a lot of room for regulation. The lowest point of the unemployment rate in the United States should be the reason why the Fed's interest rate cut is not symmetrical. Compared with the US inflation of 2.9%, although it is on the 2% line, the gap between 2% and 2.9 is well known by the Fed officials. The possibility of the US inflation reversal in the future should be the reason why the Fed's interest rate cut is not reasonable. Therefore, compared with the current hype of the Fed's interest rate cut, it is an emotional buy reality. However, the actual data is completely contrary to the basic logic and volatility of the entire US economy, including the US PMI index, the summer vacation mode and the factory maintenance cycle. The PMI index has declined, but the US service industry index has remained relatively stable and upward. Retail data and consumer fund index are both parameters of the US interest rate hike. So relatively speaking, selling expectations has become a market blunder. The hype of expectations does not represent the future and reality, and the actual data tells us that the future reality may be completely opposite to expectations. What do you think? #杰克逊霍尔年会 #美联储何时降息？ $BTC $ETH $SOL

According to the latest news on the 22nd, the United States intends to raise interest rates from 5.25% to 5.5%, which has caused a stir around the world. Everyone originally thought that a rate cut would bring some benefits, but it turned out to be a 180-degree turn. It feels like getting off a roller coaster, which is very exciting. The interest rate hike by the United States is really a big challenge for the global economy. #杰克逊霍尔年会 #美联储何时降息？ #美联储加息 $BTC
$ETH $BNB

The US Federal Reserve has been talking about cutting interest rates for a long time, but there has been no actual cut so far. Yes, it is already August, the second half of the year. Do you think it can still be cut this year? Actually, there are two questions. One is whether the Fed can still cut interest rates this year. The other question is whether the Fed has already cut interest rates. Is it a cut or not? This may be a big problem. On the surface, the Fed has not cut interest rates so far. Whether it can cut interest rates this year, I say it is uncertain. Why do I say that? Because US Treasury bonds are not selling well. If you lower its interest rate, it will be even harder to sell. There is another big problem. If it cuts interest rates, the US dollar index may fall. What should we do? Ah, this is a very difficult decision. So now the US is doing something. What is it doing? First, the issuance of US Treasury bonds is decreasing in long-term bonds and increasing in short-term bonds. Why? Because the market demand for long-term U.S. Treasury bonds is decreasing, we can't be optimistic about you in the long term. Now it's not right, so we have to make do with short-term ones. Although the return is a little lower, the risk is a little lower. So now there is such a problem, that is, if the interest rate of U.S. Treasury bonds is further reduced, the Treasury bonds will not be sold, so they have this worry. Therefore, there is such a question now, saying whether I can cut interest rates immediately, then I have to use various reasons to say that I can't cut interest rates yet, but what is this actually? This is a risk premium debt product provided by the U.S. government for its Treasury bonds. The higher the risk, the higher the corresponding interest rate. In the past, the U.S. dollar was the safest bond, but now it is not safe, its risk has increased, and you have to increase the interest you pay to others. This is called risk premium. High risk is accompanied by high return. That's right. So it is because of the existence of this risk premium that he dare not blindly cut interest rates. So what does he do? He uses this trick to force other economies to cut interest rates, such as forcing the euro to cut interest rates. What is he actually doing in this way?That is, you have to cut interest rates first, leaving me room to cut interest rates. Why? Because if you cut interest rates, I will also cut interest rates, and my US dollar index will not fall. Do you understand this principle? The lower the interest rate, the more likely its exchange rate will depreciate. This is relative. Now there are 6 currencies in the US dollar index. If these 6 currencies all cut interest rates, then my dollar will be strong. I have not cut interest rates. If you all cut interest rates by a relatively large margin, and I cut a little, the US dollar index will not fall too much. This is how it is maintained. The credit of the US dollar maintains the hegemony of the US dollar, so that more people will not abandon the US dollar. Therefore, today the United States maintains high interest rates, in fact, more consideration is the hegemony of the US dollar, not inflation, nor employment, so it can falsify employment data. The economy is not bad, very good, our employment is very strong, so we don’t need to cut interest rates. In fact, today’s international struggle is the focus of the spearhead. In fact, it is the US dollar. Because of this focus, the international chaos cannot stop. Only in this way can they drive more capital to the United States and maintain it. The strength of the US dollar, so we need to look more, deeper, and farther. So you think it will not fall this year, right? It may fall, but it depends on whether other countries cooperate. Among the six currency countries in the US dollar index, the European euro accounts for 56%, nearly 57%, and then the Japanese yen ranks second, the British pound ranks third, and there are other currencies such as Sweden, Swiss franc, whether they cut interest rates, and how much they cut interest rates, and then we can decide whether the US dollar will cut interest rates. Understand this principle. #杰克逊霍尔年会 #美联储何时降息？ #美国7月PPI低于预期 $BTC $ETH $BNB

On August 22 this year, the U.S. Department of Labor revised the decline in U.S. jobs and employment, which should have attracted the attention of the market. The timing and conditions of this downward adjustment may just be in line with the speculation of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, including the upcoming Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Governors Meeting in the United States. The speech of Fed Chairman Powell may have provided an important reference for his dovish tone of interest rate cuts. In comparison, whether the number of U.S. jobs is bad or stable is the focus of discussion. In comparison, the downward adjustment of U.S. jobs and employment does not mean that U.S. employment has deteriorated, and the increase in the U.S. unemployment rate from 4.1 to 4.3 does not mean that there is a problem with the U.S. unemployment rate. In comparison, the U.S. unemployment rate is at a historical low level. This shows that the stability of the U.S. labor market still supports the Fed's interest rate hike, rather than the Fed's interest rate cut. Therefore, the U.S. macroeconomic policy management, first, has a plan, second, has a strategy, and third, the timing and conditions are very clever. The current hype about the U.S. employment problem and the U.S. economic recession are to cater to the depreciation of the U.S. dollar, and the depreciation of the U.S. dollar may be an important parameter for whether the Fed will raise interest rates or not. It is a bit too early to talk about the US recession, because all expectations now point to a recession next year, not this year, and the probability of a recession next year is now within 30%. So the hype of poor employment and US recession has very clear goals and directions. First, stimulate the Federal Reserve. Second, lower interest rates and push the dollar to depreciate. This strategy and method is definitely worth paying attention to. Don't rush into the future policy orientation of the Federal Reserve. #杰克逊霍尔年会 #美联储何时降息？ #美国CPI数据连续第4个月回落 $BTC $ETH $BNB

The market has once again helped the Fed raise expectations for rate cuts, so it can manage expectations again. It only needs to make some fine-tuning of the data and the interpretation of the data at the end, and it can still keep the interest rate unchanged. Now everyone knows that this is not a data problem at all. It is just that it is not thought about. There are many reasons. Moreover, it has been delayed until now. It is no longer a question of whether it will decline or not. Once it cuts interest rates, the whole world will breathe a sigh of relief, including us, ushering in the spring. However, its US bonds, US stocks and the US dollar will lose support, right? You may be the only thing it can do is to cut interest rates while launching a large-scale war and turmoil, hoping that it can force capital to stay in the United States. So, on the day of the rate cut, it is possible that Americans will start to freak out. What will happen if it does not cut interest rates? We can also try to deduce it. The current logic is basically clear. We can divide it into three frameworks to evaluate what may happen. The first is Europe. The second is his allies outside Europe, such as Japan, South Korea and Australia. The third is himself. Let's see, if he continues to maintain high interest rates for as long as possible like now, his allies will fall one by one before him. First of all, Europe may go to civil strife or division. The rise of extreme right-wing forces may accelerate the sweep of the whole of Europe. Your government can be controlled by the Americans, but the people can't stand it. So the most direct thing is civil strife. It may squeeze out the influence of the United States in Europe. But, no matter what, the Americans will not stop sucking blood from Europe. We may see that the whole of Europe is unprecedented. The speed of decline can be called the zombification of Europe. Then, Japan and South Korea may be different from old Europe. It is unlikely to explode in silence and can only die slowly. It is the same as Japan and South Korea in the past 30 years. The people are gradually perverted, and the society is further repressed and can't make any sound. You see, the Night Parade of a Hundred Demons in 2021, right? It's that feeling. Then, the Americans themselves, they only need to continue to shrink their tentacles, and they can survive for a long time by sucking their allies, as long as their internal interests are well coordinated and they don't fall apart.The more it shrinks, the safer it is, the smaller its influence is, and the longer its life span is. So, everyone, if Americans really want to make a soft landing, the Pacific Ocean may eventually become silent, because it will drain all its fulcrums on the Eurasian and African continents. It originally relied on these fulcrums to control the world and generate profits for it. However, these fulcrums can no longer generate income, and only costs are left. So from a rational point of view, it will drain the last bit of income, and then give up these tentacles, right? Its global interests shrink, and its influence interests also shrink. Ultimately, it retreats to the North American continent. In this process, we may find that closing the country to the outside world is in the interests of Americans at this stage. Why? Because first of all, we must realize that North America is self-sufficient, that is, it can survive without maintaining a basic openness. Moreover, it has to engage in a continuous confrontation, and the fulcrum on the Eurasian continent has shrunk on a large scale, and it has no strategic significance. Therefore, an open policy will not bring it any benefit, but will become a drag. Look at Trump's policy. The direction is actually this trend. Continuous closure and contraction must be in line with its basic interests. Therefore, the American continent may return in the end. Its destiny is to become a truly isolated island overseas, a continent isolated from the world. The starting point is the end point. The globe determines the fate. Therefore, Americans now have fewer and fewer options. Either they fight a big war and gamble big, or they can only continue to print money and then slowly retreat. Now, whether it is a rate cut or a rate hike, the United States is not doing well. #杰克逊霍尔年会 #美联储何时降息？ $BTC $ETH $SOL

The Fed's meeting resolution is completely consistent with the market's expectations. The Fed continues to maintain interest rates at 5.25% and 5.5%, which may be mainly because the US dollar market has become an obstacle or even a risk factor for the Fed's interest rate hike. Its parameters are closely related to the inflation data released by the US Department of Labor, because inflation is a downward rhythm, which is more conducive to the Fed's maintaining a stable interest rate. Powell's attitude and the Fed's internal resolution have also changed, because Powell clearly stated that among the 19 Fed officials who may cut interest rates once this year, 2/3 may still insist on keeping the interest rate high. So I think that the Fed's interest rate cut may be hype, and the probability of raising interest rates exists, but there is also 1/3 of the US dollar that may also advocate one or two interest rate cuts, and this change is related to the US dollar market, because the US dollar is high, 101 at the beginning of the year, and now 104, so the US dollar will depreciate. Hype about the Fed's interest rate cut should be the main market in the future, and the benchmark for public opinion hype and market trends. The Federal Reserve will continue to insist on its role of raising interest rates this year, and inflation may be an important reference. In the future, the rise in oil prices and precious metal commodity prices are all possible potential inflation increases. #杰克逊霍尔年会 #美联储何时降息？ $BTC $ETH $SOL

Do you also think that the US interest rate cut cycle is coming and interest rates will continue to fall? No matter what you think, the consensus on Wall Street is that interest rates will fall by at least 2% in the next year, and return to the low interest rate era in two years. Most people in the market do think so, which is not difficult to understand. After all, the Federal Reserve just raised interest rates from 0% to 5.5% two years ago. Why shouldn't it be lowered a little more after that, at least back to the pre-epidemic period? However, this thing that everyone thinks is normal actually has a very large variable. There was a period of time in history that was very similar to the current US stock market. At that time, the Federal Reserve also raised interest rates rapidly due to inflation, and after the interest rate hike, it also magically achieved a soft landing and successfully controlled inflation. This period of history was the US stock market in 1995. After the Federal Reserve raised interest rates sharply and inflation was under control, it only cut interest rates three times in the next three years, a total of 75 basis points. And then. Changes, it is still raising interest rates, so why is this? Does it mean that there are huge variables in our current interest rate cuts? In today's video, let's go back to the U.S. stock market in 1995 and 1996 to see what happened during the interest rate cut cycle. Why did the Federal Reserve stop cutting interest rates in the end, contrary to everyone's expectations, and how did the market respond? This video can be said to be the most subversive video I have studied recently. It is not only crucial for our investors, but also closely related to the lives of each of us, so you must watch it to the end. The history of interest rate cuts in 1995 must start from 1994. At the beginning of 1994, in order to prevent the hot economy from bringing inflation, the Federal Reserve began to raise interest rates very aggressively. The benchmark interest rate rose from 31% to 6% in one year, and the U.S. stock market also experienced a lot of pain, which is actually almost the same as our U.S. stock market two years ago. In the same way, we are also facing sudden inflation and unprecedented rapid interest rate hikes, and the U.S. stock market has also experienced the largest bear market in more than a decade. I also made a special video at the time to analyze this period of history. You will find that the logic of the subsequent development of the U.S. stock market is very similar to this period of history. It can be seen that understanding history is still very helpful for us to understand the current market.However, our focus today is not on the interest rate hike cycle, but what happened to the US stock market after the rate hike, which is more important for us now. In that year, the last rate hike by the Federal Reserve occurred in February 1995, when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 50 basis points in one go. However, surprisingly, even after a full year of rate hikes, the US economy was still unusually strong at the time, with GDP growth still as high as 4.5%, and the unemployment rate still maintained at 5.4%. Here I have to explain that the unemployment rate standard at that time was different from that of today. At that time, an unemployment rate of 6% was considered full employment, so 5.4% was already a very hot data. Because of this, the market at that time. They all believed that the Federal Reserve would further raise interest rates by 100 to 200 basis points. Under this expectation, most people believed that the strong economy was only temporary. For example, Goldman Sachs predicted at the time that the US economy could barely maintain in the first half of the year, but would begin to decline in the second half of the year. As expected, not long after, the US economy began to flash red lights, various economic data began to turn downward, corporate pressure began to gradually emerge, and recession concerns intensified. All this reached its peak after a job report in May of that year. In May 1995, the unemployment rate in the United States suddenly soared from 5.4% to 5.8%, and not only did the number of jobs not increase, but it also decreased by 100,000. After the news was announced, long-term interest rates plunged sharply, falling by 1% in a month. For a time, recession concerns were very effective, and the market began to expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates quickly to save the economy. I believe that corrupt officials who often pay attention to the market should have discovered that this is actually exactly the same as what we have been doing in the past period of time. The cause of this big correction in US stocks two weeks ago was precisely due to a bad job report in 1. In this way, recession concerns were dragged back to the table, and the market began to eagerly expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Now, the expectation of interest rate cuts this year has increased from one to six times. History is so similar. Will the interest rate cut really come as expected? Let’s continue looking at the story of 1995. After the recession sentiment had been brewing for more than a month, the then Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan finally spoke out.He first admitted that there is indeed a possibility of a short-term recession in the United States, but he believes that the US economy is still very healthy in the long run, and said that the current downturn is only a temporary phenomenon. This statement was considered to be that the Federal Reserve would not cater to the market to cut interest rates. However, not long after, Greenspan compromised with the market. Just two weeks later, at the Fed's regular meeting in July, Greenspan announced the first interest rate cut of 25 basis points. At the press conference, Greenspan made no secret of saying that although he did not think there would be a recession, his interest rate cut this time was a precaution for a possible recession in the future, which was an obvious performance of catering to the market. As a result, the stock market and bond market rose sharply, and the market has begun to expect the price of continuous interest rate cuts in the next few months. However, I don't know if he regretted his decision. Within two days, Greenspan came out to pour cold water on the market. He once again emphasized that the US economy will recover within a few months and hinted that there will be no further interest rate cuts. The implication is that our interest rate cut this time is just a token of our intention, and you should not over-interpret it. In fact, Greenspan did not take action in the following months, but it was not because he was too embarrassed to do so. Instead, the US economy began to recover as he expected. The unemployment rate did not rise further, but began to turn downward. Various indicators also began to recover gradually, and some forward-looking indicators even showed that the US economy was about to take off again. For a time, the fear of recession disappeared. But soon, another unexpected problem came quietly, and that was the rapid decline in inflation. Some people said that the decline in inflation was a good thing, right? Indeed, but the decline in inflation that year was a bit too fast. By the end of 1995, the core CPI was only 1.7%, which was far from a threat. The service CPI recorded the smallest increase in the past 30 years, and energy even experienced deflation. The Fed raised interest rates in 1994 to control inflation. Now that inflation has been controlled and there are even signs of deflation, there is naturally no reason to continue tightening. So the Fed cut interest rates in two regular meetings in December 1995 and January 1996, by 25 basis points each time.Greenspan also emphasized at the time that the interest rate cut was not because of economic problems, but because he saw that anti-inflation had made considerable progress, and he felt that there was a certain room for interest rate cuts. From the first interest rate cut in July 1995 to the entire interest rate cut cycle in January 1996, we can draw the following inspirations. First, the Fed's interest rate cuts are not continuous after the start of the interest rate cuts, but will be adjusted continuously according to the actual economic situation. And we go back. As of now, you will find that the interest rate cut in September is basically a done deal, but how will it develop after that? The market now expects that the interest rate will be cut continuously at each regular meeting, but the actual situation may not be the case. Another inspiration is that the Fed does not necessarily have to wait until the economy is bad to cut interest rates. If inflation declines rapidly, the Fed will also cut interest rates. Now many people think that the Fed's interest rate cut is not a good thing, because it means that there must be something wrong with the economy. I also saw that some self-media people like to use the stock market decline when the interest rate cuts in 2008 and 20 as evidence, saying that the stock market will collapse once the interest rate is cut. This is actually completely putting the cart before the horse. In fact, the history of 1995 and 1996 tells us that the Fed can cut interest rates when the economy is still good, and this has nothing to do with crises and crashes. At this point in the story, the readers must be curious, how did the stock market perform from 1995 to the beginning of 1996? In fact, despite the recession and the cold water poured by the Fed throughout the process, the stock market has actually been on a rare bull market. In 1995, the stock price rose by nearly 50%, and this was mainly due to two reasons. One was the decline in interest rate expectations, from a 100-200 basis point increase at the beginning of the year to a 75 basis point cut, and the other was that the overall US economy was relatively strong, and corporate profits were also good. However, what happened in 1996 was completely reversed. After a series of interest rate cuts, after inflation had been completely controlled, no one expected that this would be the last time the Fed would cut interest rates. After that, the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate remained at a high level of 5.25% for three years. This was a very tight interest rate level, and such a tight situation has not occurred again in the following 30 years.So what happened in the market that year? What made the Federal Reserve completely change direction, and how did the U.S. stock market respond at that time? Before answering this question, I would like to say a few words to you. There are many old viewers. Miss Meituojun has been working on a content product specifically for Chinese investors, called Meituo PRO. In Meituo PRO, Meituojun and four types of professional analysts will continue to output professional content at the investment bank level for everyone, and the key is to make it easy for ordinary people to understand and interesting to read. Whether you are an expert with many years of investment experience or a novice in the stock market, you can find professional content suitable for you here. There are also thousands of excellent PRO investors in the circle, and everyone exchanges investment, collides ideas, and looks for opportunities. Meituo PRO is not just a membership product, but an environment where everyone can continue to improve together. Come and listen to the most cutting-edge investment analysis every day to enrich your investment cognition, come and see the collision of views of excellent investors every day, expand your investment career, refer to some real transaction sharing every day, and learn some investment logic from others. Mate PRO does not engage in leading big brothers, success studies, or making quick money. It just shares the most professional content with heart, so that everyone can improve their investment ability every day without any effort. If you are also a person who takes investment seriously and wants to accumulate wealth with peace of mind, then you might as well come to mate PRO to experience it. New users can use it for free for the first 7 days, and all the content is open to everyone. If you don’t like it, you can unsubscribe at any time. Well, let’s go back to the history of 1996. The following figure shows the performance of long-term interest rates in 1995 and 1996. It can be seen that after the interest rate cut in January 1996, the long-term interest rate suddenly reversed slightly, soaring from 5.5% to 7%, which is actually a change in interest rate expectations. So why did the Federal Reserve suddenly turn around and stop cutting interest rates? In fact, behind this is the unexpected changes in the US economy. I don’t know whether the Fed’s two consecutive interest rate cuts have worked, or the US economy itself is very resilient. After entering 1996, various economic indicators began to rise uncontrollably, far exceeding everyone’s expectations. Both consumption and employment began to accelerate, and commercial investment also expanded rapidly, increasing by 12.5%, and the economically sensitive real estate market has achieved the strongest growth in more than 20 years. The entire US economy. It is completely free from the pressure of high interest rates, and it is a thriving scene. Such performance is also something that the Federal Reserve did not expect at the time. The figure below shows the comparison between the Federal Reserve's forecast for the US economy at the beginning of 1996 and the actual economy. It can be seen that at the beginning of the year, the Federal Reserve predicted that the US GDP would grow by 2.2%, and the unemployment rate would be 5.7%. In fact, this was the forecast given when the Federal Reserve planned to cut interest rates 4 to 5 times in a row, but in the end, we all know that except for the one interest rate cut at the beginning of the year, there was no further cut. Under such a high interest rate level, the actual GDP growth recorded in the United States was as high as 3.8%, and the unemployment rate was only 5.1%, which was much better than the initial forecast of the Federal Reserve. And Greenspan also realized it later. At the Federal Reserve's regular meeting in July, after maintaining the interest rate unchanged for more than half a year, he finally stood up and said that the Federal Reserve may now have to raise interest rates to control the current overheated economy. He said he was in a state of high monitoring. He must see that the economy is slowing down significantly in the near future, otherwise inflation is likely to revive. The following plot once again overturned everyone's cognition. The US economy continued to advance in the second half of the year, but inflation not only did not rise, but fell further. No one knew why at the time. It seemed that a mysterious force was stirring up the US economy. The Federal Reserve at the time even questioned the official data and specially brought in government officials to question it, but it ended in vain. So why is this? This does not conform to the most basic economic laws. People at that time did not see such a scene, but many years later when people went back to study that period of history, they found that the mysterious force that stirred up the US economy was actually the Internet. Under normal circumstances, if the economy is hot, it will definitely be accompanied by an increase in consumption, but there are only so many goods and services, so prices will naturally rise, leading to inflation. However, there is also such a special situation, if goods and services also increase significantly at the same time.Wouldn't that make it possible to achieve the effect of hot consumption but no price increase at the same time? This is exactly what the Internet brought about back then, which brought productivity improvement to the entire United States. Unlike our current feelings about the Internet, in the early days of the Internet, the Internet was more convenient for enterprises rather than ordinary people like us. The Internet really began to be popularized in 1994, and in early 1996, it was the golden period of its development. The enterprises at that time embraced the Internet just like the enterprises embrace AI now, which was something that had to be done no matter what. At that time, any management who did not take the initiative to embrace the Internet would definitely be punished by shareholders and the board of directors. In fact, the Internet did bring good results to these enterprises at that time, and this effect was mainly reflected in the cost reduction and efficiency improvement of enterprises. The most typical example is Walmart. Before the Internet era, Walmart's market share in the United States was less than 10%, but by 1996, its market share was close to 30%, and its operating efficiency was more than half higher than that of ordinary retail companies. The reason behind this is the Internet. Walmart is one of the largest companies that was most active in applying the Internet in the early days. For retail companies, the most difficult part is inventory management. With such a large daily cargo throughput, any efficiency improvement is a huge cost optimization. The Internet allows Walmart to exchange data with suppliers in real time, and track and adjust its inventory levels in a timely manner on a global scale. This not only greatly reduces the company's warehousing costs, but also greatly improves its delivery efficiency. This is a huge improvement for a global company like Walmart. Later, some studies even believed that it was Walmart that single-handedly stopped the signs of repeated inflation. And the contribution of the Internet is behind this. To put it bluntly, it is because of the Internet that Walmart can sell more goods and save a lot of costs on each batch of goods, which is a typical improvement in productivity. #美联储何时降息？ #杰克逊霍尔年会 $BTC $ETH $SOL

If we cut interest rates in a hurry, what will happen if inflation rebounds? Which central bank dares to play with interest rates? The Fed cannot cut interest rates in September. There are two main indicators for cutting interest rates: inflation down and unemployment up. The current situation is that the inflation in July is 2.9, which is far from the target of 2%. The Fed has no motivation to cut interest rates with this inflation, and the unemployment rate in July is 4.3%, which is not high. Under this data, the Fed has no pressure to cut interest rates. Now only the economic data in August is a variable, so let's assume that the data in August is relatively optimistic and see if the Fed is likely to cut interest rates under this data. Assuming that inflation in August drops to 2.5 and the unemployment rate rises to 4.5, think about it, will the Fed cut interest rates when it sees this data? It's impossible. It takes a long time before the interest rate cut. The inflation rate steadily declines and approaches 2%, and the unemployment rate gradually rises to a higher level. Only when the two data form a stable trend will the interest rate cut be initiated. The interest rate policy must have at least stability. If we cut interest rates in a hurry, what will happen if inflation rebounds? Which central bank dares to cut interest rates. The Fed has no reason to cut interest rates in a hurry. The current economic data is very good, and the unemployment rate is not high. What about this forecasting tool, that Sam's rule, Goldman Sachs said it, and Morgan said it, aren't you tired? Let's not talk about their starting points, just talking about the forecast level. I think everyone should have their own independent judgment in the face of such major issues. #杰克逊霍尔年会 #美国CPI数据连续第4个月回落 #美联储何时降息？ $BTC $ETH $SOL

Now, the topic of the Fed's interest rate cut is frequently mentioned in various fields. Through the meeting of the China-US Financial Working Group on August 20, we can see that the possibility of the Fed's US dollar interest rate hike exists, because the market is now speculating on the extreme nature of the Fed's interest rate cut, and compared with the fundamentals of the US economy and US companies, it may not be suitable for the Fed's interest rate cut. Compared with this financial meeting between my country and the United States, it may be compared with its counterparts, which should arouse our high attention. On the one hand, my country's central bank is the one who manages foreign exchange reserves and gold reserves and is the maker of monetary policy, while the other party is not the Federal Reserve and the US central bank, but the US Treasury Department. The US Treasury Department is mainly responsible for raising funds, taxation and issuing bonds, and management should be the main responsibility of the US Treasury Department. It can be clearly revealed here that the issuance of US treasury bonds requires foreigners to actively purchase them, and as the functional department of foreign exchange management, the significance of this consultation of the People's Bank of my country is very important to the intention of the United States. Compared with the issuance of treasury bonds, there has been an increase in holdings. The latest data in June has risen by 3%, and the end of September is the fiscal year of the United States. This phenomenon tells us that the Fed's interest rate cut in September may be just speculation. The current level of the US dollar exchange rate has reached 101 points, so in the future period, how the US dollar will trend, whether the Fed will maintain interest rates or raise interest rates, is very important. The interest rate cut that is a hot topic in the market may be a hype strategy of the Fed. I boldly guess that it may actually be for the purpose of raising interest rates, and the Fed's interest rate cut is just a bluff. $BTC $ETH $SOL #杰克逊霍尔年会 #美国CPI数据连续第4个月回落 #美国7月PPI低于预期

Have you noticed that with the entry of the US capital market, the intervention of the US government, the Mentougou incident, etc., the currency seems to have changed?
1. The entry of BTC+ETH spot ETF and Wall Street capital means that not only the ability to screen varieties and sectors is required, but also the ability to conduct financial transactions. The previous strategy of making money by simply holding on to something has been eliminated.
2. The bull market rule of "Federal Reserve easing + four-year cycle of Circle B" is gradually being diluted and may even be broken. The situation of the army is ever-changing, and the shape of water is ever-changing. The only constant in this market is "change."
3. Copycat coins are issued excessively, and the number of people and money to take them in cannot keep up with the coins and projects that are issuing them, which has drained the liquidity in the hands of the "leeks". In the future, only a very small number of copycat coins can outperform the mainstream coins. For the vast majority of copycat coins, their peak is when they are listed, and they complete their life mission in a few months. After that, they will gradually return to zero. Even if the price of Bitcoin rises to 100,000 or 200,000 US dollars, the price of junk coins will still be at the foot of the mountain, and there will never be a bull market.