B wave is a false bull market - take the profit when it's good
1. Has the rebound ended? According to my recent daily review, I tend to think that the time for a change is not far off. 2. Is this a big B wave or an X wave? Let's assume this is a big B wave. 126199-80600 left abc 5-3-5 zigzag adjustment wave 80600-97900 left abc 5-3-5 zigzag adjustment wave So these two transactions summarize to a 3-3 structure to become a big B wave. Thus, the entire big ABC can only be a large-scale platform adjustment wave. However, the rebound since 80600 must meet the criteria for a platform adjustment wave. The rebound must reach a minimum amplitude standard of 0.9, which means above 110000; currently, it seems like a pipe dream.
Blue Route: Indicates that the Y-c wave 5 decline has started near 70900 Orange Route: Indicates that a small rebound is allowed at 69000~70000 Then the Y-c wave 5 decline will start
Blue Route: Indicates that the Y-c wave 5 decline has started near 70900 Orange Route: Indicates that a small rebound is allowed at 69000~70000 Then the Y-c wave 5 decline will start
Maintain yesterday's viewpoint Y-b rebound structure is ongoing (orange route)
Today we come to discuss an additional issue Some wave analysts have started to consider 60000 as the bottom of the correction and believe that breaking 85000 would confirm this viewpoint.
My personal opinion is that I do not agree with this conclusion. The reason is that the three trades in between 80600-97920 had too weak a rebound. Whether the price of 60000 is considered the bottom is not the key. The key is that the three trades in between need to follow the blue route I drew. Only then can the recent significant drop be viewed as a bottom.
This is like what I summarized in January; currently, we can only be in a double zigzag adjustment wave or a triple zigzag adjustment wave. Unless the B wave can reach a new high, the entire ABC wave can be seen as a giant expanding platform adjustment wave structure. Only then will the recent five-wave decline be considered the bottom.
Personally, I currently lean towards Y-a having already ended. This Y-a-5 is too long, directly crossing the lower boundary of the wave channel. It's even more brutal than my estimate around 68800.
The moment of the spike in volume at 60000 on the four-hour chart, regardless of whether it's from the structure or various indicators' divergences, as well as the shorts significantly taking profit.
In the next ten days or so, we will see a Y-b three-wave structure rebound. I do not recommend going long; just wait for opportunities to short.