BIT居士

78,570, the last 20% of funds have been invested, would you dare to buy Bitcoin at 109,000, and would you not dare to buy Bitcoin at 78,000?

Everyone may have overlooked a historical pattern, which is: Bitcoin often breaks through its historical high within three months after gold continuously sets historical highs.

The recent decline in Bitcoin is mainly due to market uncertainty, with Bitcoin reacting first and the US stock market following. This depends on whether the people behind it will use this opportunity to pull funds from the US stock market into the crypto space. I think it is very likely, so the short-term decline is not a concern. Analysts in the market are saying that the recent drop to 9.19 is due to Trump’s tariffs and European countermeasures, but I personally do not agree. I believe it is: the bulls have accumulated too much, which is a move to kill the bulls before the rise. The sudden drop at 6 AM, with no trading volume, is quite strange. The overall direction will still trend upwards, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be sharp drops to liquidate the bulls.

Everyone also overlooks one of the biggest players in Bitcoin: the exchanges. People should be able to feel that gold and the US stock market have already risen very high, yet there hasn't been a decent correction. If gold and the US stock market can’t rise any further, what should the people behind the crypto space do to attract money from the gold and stock markets? That is: pump the price. The best time to attract funds from these two markets is during a bull market when it is unable to rise and is in a sideways trend, combined with a positive market sentiment to push it forward.

When trading in the crypto space, one should not only look at technicals and news; even if you do, it’s often more beneficial to look at it the other way around. Let me share two relatively reliable indicators: 1. The Fear and Greed Index and liquidation data; the lower the Fear and Greed Index is, especially when it approaches 20, the more one should buy, and the higher it approaches 80, the more one should sell. 2. The larger the liquidation amount on one side, the more likely it is to move in that direction. For instance, if it breaks 90,000 and has a liquidation of 800 million USD, and rises to 95,000 with a liquidation of 2 billion USD, then it is highly likely to liquidate this 2 billion. But it may first spike to liquidate this 800 million and then go for the 2 billion, resulting in a double kill for both long and short positions.

In the crypto space, one should pay more attention to the underlying logic. If the largest player in Bitcoin is the exchanges, then they can use unlimited USDT to pump the price and attract funds from the gold and stock markets.

In fact, speaking broadly: the competitors behind gold and the stock market are the crypto exchanges. Do people believe that the operators of crypto exchanges led by Binance can succeed?

Let me advise everyone once again, the biggest opponent in contracts is: jiao易suo.

Now let's talk about how Bitcoin will perform next based on historical patterns:

Please look at the first and second images. If history repeats itself, then the weekly chart will rise for another 2 weeks, with the upper position approximately at $104,000 to $108,000. Then it will start to decline into a bear market.

If the weekly chart develops like the third image, Bitcoin will enter a crazy bull or slow bull state, with a bullish return, breaking new highs to even higher levels.

However, whether it is the first or the third image, there will be a decline before the rise, triggering a sharp increase in bullish sentiment.

Universal crypto friend, I would like to ask everyone, does anyone know: Has the voting for the BitMine shareholders' meeting on the 15th finished? Was the proposal to increase the shares from 500 million to 50 billion approved?

January 15, 2026, is BitMine Shareholders' Day, where shareholders will vote on the issue of share increase (from 500 million shares to 50 billion shares). Was the vote approved?

If approved, BitMine will gain more funds to purchase ETH. If not approved, it will affect the upcoming ETH purchasing ability. BitMine's goal is to purchase 5% of ETH, approximately 6 million coins, and it has already purchased over 4.1 million coins.

2026 Regular Investment Phase 3 for Bitcoin:
Quantity: 0.105256BTC
Funds: 10010USDT
Price: 95105.19USDT
Date: January 17, 2026 02:23
Total Investment: 30036USDT
Total Gain: 0.32706
Average Price: 91836.36USDT
Next Purchase Date: January 24~25, 2026
Investment Per Phase: 10000USDT
Total Investment Funds: 520000USDT

If Bitcoin does not drop tonight US time, the target for next week is 102,000.

Bitcoin regular investment plan phase three:

Investment time from January 16, 2026, 10:30 PM to January 17, 2026, 12:00 PM

Regular investment amount 1WU

The US is investigating a Federal Reserve chairman, look how busy some people are— isn't that perfectly normal? If it were Trump being investigated right now, wouldn't you think that was perfectly normal?

What if this happened in China? Let's rephrase it: If the governor of China's Bank spent $2.5 billion to renovate the headquarters of China's Bank, and the state launched an investigation, would you applaud? Or would you condemn the leader just as you're condemning Trump now?

Does this mean the Federal Reserve chairman has a 'death warrant'—no matter how much he steals, whenever someone starts investigating him, he can deflect by accusing the US President of political persecution? Then a group of people would rush to say: 'Don't investigate! The Federal Reserve is independent—investigating its chairman is an attack on independence.'

It's an investigation, not a direct arrest like the one in Venezuela where the president was seized.

In early 2026, market funds will flow back into Bitcoin from gold and stock markets, with institutions having already rushed to secure positions. Although Bitcoin ETFs have recently shown outflows, over the past week, a total of $3.7 billion in USDT and USDC has been minted, far exceeding the ETF outflows. The ETF's peak value reached $140 billion. Bitcoin has dropped 29%, and theoretically, the ETF value should have been $99.4 billion, but the actual figure is $122 billion, indicating that since Bitcoin's price started at $126,000, the ETF has been experiencing inflows rather than outflows.

In early 2026, market funds will flow back into Bitcoin from gold and stock markets. The U.S. stock market will decline, but Bitcoin will no longer follow its drop. Institutions have already rushed ahead to secure positions. Although Bitcoin ETFs have recently shown outflows, over the past week, USDT and USDC together have been minted with a total of $3.7 billion, far exceeding ETF outflows. The maximum value of Bitcoin ETFs is $140 billion. Bitcoin has dropped by 29%. According to this, the ETF value should have been $99.4 billion, but it is actually $122 billion, indicating that since Bitcoin's price started at $126,000, ETFs have been experiencing inflows rather than outflows.

How many people do you know who were playing with Bitcoin 10 years ago? Looking back at today 10 years later, do you feel the same: I wish I had bought Bitcoin 10 years ago.

Suppose you have invested 5 million in the crypto space, how would you allocate this 5 million across different cryptocurrencies?

Personal speculation on whether Trump's tariff policy next Wednesday is illegal: Based on statements from the U.S. Treasury Secretary and Trump himself, the outcome is likely illegal.

For the market:

🎉 Retail investors perceive this as bearish, believing Trump's loss is bad news.
🎉 Institutions view this as bullish. They believe tariff refunds equate to capital returning to the market, which is positive for risk assets.

Short-term market reaction: Watch whether behind-the-scenes players use this opportunity to harvest retail investors' positions. If they do, the market will quickly rebound—no need to worry.

🎉 In early 2026, market funds are expected to flow from gold and stock markets into Bitcoin. Institutions have already started early, grabbing positions ahead of time. Although Bitcoin ETFs have recently shown outflows, another key point is often overlooked: over the past week, USDT and USDC have been minted with a total value of $3.7 billion, significantly exceeding ETF outflows. Another overlooked fact is that Bitcoin ETFs are currently valued at around $122 billion, having reached a peak of $140 billion. Bitcoin has dropped 29% from its peak, so its theoretical value should be around $99.4 billion, but the actual value remains $122 billion, indicating that Bitcoin ETFs have been experiencing inflows rather than outflows since Bitcoin's price started at $126,000 to the present.

2026 Bitcoin Dollar-Cost Averaging Phase 2:
Quantity: 0.11073BTC
Funds: 10016USDT
Price: 90456.9USDT
Time: January 10, 2026 05:22

Total Investment: 20026USDT
Total Received: 0.221804
Average Price: 90286.9USDT

Next Purchase Time: January 7 - January 18, 2026

Funds per Period: 10000USDT
Total Investment Funds: 520000USDT

There's no need to worry about cryptocurrency trading being illegal anymore. Holding and trading cryptocurrencies personally generally won't be considered illegal operation, and thus isn't illegal. This is the latest guidance from within China. There's no need to worry about cryptocurrency trading being illegal—just avoid using cryptocurrencies for illegal activities, and you can freely and confidently participate.

This represents a broad societal recognition of Bitcoin, and also provides clear reference for entering the crypto world. Although there is still no explicit policy support for cryptocurrencies in China, the principle remains: where the law does not prohibit, it is legal; where there is no prohibition, it is effectively supported!

5x leverage, lose 20% and it's all gone

Trading BTC5L and ETH5L for experimentation, aiming to overcome the mindset of being afraid to buy at the bottom and unable to hold through downturns. Achieved a profit of 70,000 yuan this month, with five consecutive profitable days and a maximum single-day loss of 60,000 yuan on the sixth day. Expectation is that January and February will be two months of upward movement.

Simultaneously, the scheduled investment in Bitcoin spot will take place from 23:00 on January 9, 2026, to 12:00 on January 10, 2026.

Investment amount: 10,000 USDT.

How do people view MSCI's decision not to delist MicroStrategy? The negative news for Bitcoin is being systematically eliminated one by one. The recent risk lies in the fact that everyone is trading Bitcoin based on past bull and bear cycles, believing this is merely a short-term rebound before a drop, a 'dead cat bounce,' and clearly noticing that everyone is rushing to sell early as soon as prices rise. However, what people are missing is this: the lack of trading volume indicates that major funds have not yet exited.

Originally, MSCI was scheduled to decide on January 15, 2026, whether to delist MicroStrategy and other digital asset financial companies from its index. However, they have already announced in advance that they will not delist MicroStrategy, but instead need to redefine the rules for Bitcoin treasury companies.

This means the potential capital outflow caused by fears of delisting MicroStrategy and other Bitcoin treasury companies no longer exists, which is a long-term positive. Why did they announce this early instead of waiting until January 15, 2026? Because MSCI didn't want to bear the responsibility. Industry insiders strongly opposed such a move, and with the U.S. moving toward full legalization and positive promotion, no one wanted to go against the trend. JPMorgan Chase has now allowed up to 4% allocation to Bitcoin ETFs. Although the price impact won't be immediate, this has already influenced MSCI's decision. This is a long-term bullish signal for Bitcoin, opening another channel for capital inflows. While the funds won't flood in quickly, the fear of missing out drives people to invest in Bitcoin, effectively promoting it in another way.

Another recent topic of discussion is the concern over the U.S. midterm elections in November 2026. In my view, this is just the 'bear side' running out of other negative news, similar to how they once claimed quantum computing was a threat. If the midterm elections fail, and I were the behind-the-scenes operator, I would first drive the market up until everyone believes the bull market is back, then trigger a sharp decline—maximizing profits.

Consider this from another perspective: If you were the market manipulator, and a midterm election loss would cause a market drop, would you continuously shout that failure is coming and the market will crash, while refusing to sell at high prices or place short orders? No intelligent person would do that.

By analyzing the psychology of market operators, this downturn is a 'short squeeze' designed to prepare for a stronger upward move. January will see an increase, and February will also be up.

The short-term trading account lost over 60,000 yesterday, but is still profitable by over 70,000 this month. Let's see whether this month will end in profit or loss.

The benefit of BTC5L is that when you correctly predict the trend, the 5L automatically rolls positions at 5 times the speed, and this rolling is automatic, not manual. Also, it won't be liquidated due to a 10% drop spike. The downside is that if the trend prediction is wrong, the position will be wiped out completely if the price drops by 20%, and the decline accelerates further as the price continues to fall, all due to the automatic rolling mechanism.

Everyone should learn to engage in forward trading. For instance, Bitcoin ETFs have been consistently flowing out, and everyone should realize that if ETFs continue to flow out, it should be viewed as bearish, right? The highest outflow occurred when the Bitcoin price fell into the range of $86,000 to $89,000. However, as traders, we should not trade based on market appearances; we should not continue to short or sell spot after a continuous outflow. When you notice that Bitcoin ETFs have turned into net inflows, it's actually already too late. Just like the inflow last Friday and this Monday, you see that the ETF has inflowed, but the price has already reached $94,000, losing the best buying opportunity.

What the market appearance represents is what we should study.

For example, we can foresee that the upcoming Ethereum staking ETFs will soon be widely discussed, so please do not wait for the market to react before entering; we should layout our positions in advance.

We should buy when the market is in panic and sell when the market is crazy. You can refer to the Fear and Greed Index; buy when the index is around 20 and sell when it is around 80. So far, this strategy has proven to be effective. Everyone can carefully study the Fear and Greed Index corresponding to Bitcoin points during this recent drop.

Everyone can easily attract many fans to become KOLs, and the operation is very simple. Let me reveal how most of the perpetual profit master KOLs operate in the market.

Most people have a bad habit of holding on during losses and rushing to take profits when they are making money, and they start to run as soon as they make a little profit. This leads to most people deciding not to profit from the system operations because their operational logic is incorrect. As a KOL, to break this operational logic, they adopt the simplest method, which is to open both long and short positions. Do not trust any KOL in the market for following trades, as 99.99% of them are fake.

The operations of KOLs are basically done this way. You can also become a KOL with tens of thousands of fans, but I am unwilling to use this method because it is deceiving: KOLs in the market operate in two ways. One is the ant position, which goes without saying, it's too disgusting. The other can be said to be 99.99% both long and short positions, using 2 accounts to open trades in both directions. For example, opening a long position of $20,000 and a short position of $20,000 at the same location, simultaneously setting 98% stop-loss and take-profit positions in both directions. For instance, you set a stop-loss at 98% of the price in one account and the same price for take-profit in the other account. Why set the stop-loss at 98% instead of letting it automatically close? Because if it automatically liquidates, there are closing costs. Then, you wait for the market to run for 3 months or 5 months. During the losses, you can sell your misfortunes, and fans will come. Then you can start leading trades for everyone to follow or recommend small coins to start harvesting.

So, the perpetual profit masters you see are all masters who want to take your money! In the cryptocurrency space, the first rule to win is not to let others influence your operations. You must establish your own operational logic and strictly execute it.

Still the same point of view, a month of rise in January, 100,000 dollars have arrived in the blink of an eye, and the only possible bad news now is that the MicroStrategy index will be removed by NSCI on 2026.1.15. But my point is: the market has fully priced it in, and after it lands, it will start a crazy rise and explode the shorts.