I have a feeling that this victory will belong to Trump!

The election voting starts tonight! Trump's campaign is beginning to turn around, gaining an advantage in several swing states, particularly Pennsylvania.
Michigan and Wisconsin are basically done for, but as long as Trump can secure the currently favorable swing states, there will be no surprises in this election!

As a result, Doge has surged from 0.14 to 0.17. For those who boldly bought at the bottom yesterday, it feels great. Although I didn't open a contract, a 20% increase in spot price is still significant.
If you're looking for stability, you can either cash out completely from Doge or keep a little to bet on Trump's victory. If he really wins, it might go to 0.2-0.25.

The voting times in each state are actually different, and it should start tonight, with real-time counting tomorrow, continuing for several days.
However, the results do not need to be fully counted; as long as there is an overwhelming advantage in the counted votes in key states, the candidate can declare victory, so results could come as soon as tomorrow night.
So here, I wish Trump all the best, and an official announcement tomorrow!

Family, tomorrow is the big election, and Bitcoin might experience some wild fluctuations.
I must have at least 70% confidence or a favorable risk-reward ratio before opening a contract, but the election result is really a gamble, a 55-45 chance, with no extra profit to be made.
If you place the wrong bet, you risk losing everything, and the upcoming bull market won't concern you anymore. Therefore, I don’t like to open trades with a risk-reward ratio or win rate below 70%, so these days Shuqin is holding back and waiting for a result. However, when it comes to spot trading, I'm aggressively buying the dip; after all, there's no risk of liquidation, so why worry?
WIF has dropped to 1.9, Sol is at 160, ETH is at 2400, and the Doge that previously peaked at 0.175 has also fallen back. Time to buy a bit, believe in Musk this time, and go Trump!

Trump in Danger?
Currently, the prediction market's betting rate on Trump has dropped again to 55%. The main reason is that Trump's backyard is on fire, as one poll with a good winning rate shows that the originally deep red state of Iowa seems to be turning blue, which is quite surprising.

Currently, Harris's concept of dogecoin is surging, while the overall cryptocurrency market is experiencing a correction. We reported on this trend yesterday; Trump's approval rating dropped by 10%, advising everyone not to engage in contracts and just hold onto spot assets. The key to this election should be in the swing state of Pennsylvania; whoever wins Pennsylvania wins the whole country.
Therefore, analyzing the market conditions is useless because what truly determines the trend is the election outcome, which this Shuqin cannot influence.

However, the good news is that the market no longer blindly believes in Trump's election; there is a certain expectation of his failure, and it has already started to decline in advance.
So if Trump really loses, the cryptocurrency market shouldn't crash; at most, it will soften and correct a bit before gradually rising again with the Fed's easing policies later on.

But! If Trump wins, Bitcoin will rise to 80,000 in a week!
This time, both sides have about a 50% probability, neither more nor less, just hold onto spot assets, and let’s wait for a result.

Oh. Trump's approval rating has plummeted, from a high of 68% this week to 58% now.
And according to pro-left CNN's polling, 60% of early voters have chosen Harris, causing some panic among Trump's supporters.

The data from both sides is really worlds apart, with each claiming they will win, which I find has no reference significance. However, it's worth noting that the prediction market has lowered its betting odds on Trump's winning probability by 10%.
I personally believe the ratio of Trump to Harris is 6:4, but the probability of losing is still over 40%, so many cryptocurrency investors have chosen to take profits early to hedge against risk, leading to a slight pullback in Bitcoin.

My strategy is to buy the dips for ETH, Sol, as well as Pepe and WIF spot, using only a little leverage or none at all, ensuring safety in holding positions, and avoiding high-leverage contracts.
Once the results come out next Wednesday, we can engage in active right-side trading, especially if Trump wins, we can increase our positions accordingly.

Wow, I can't believe my eyes, non-farm employment increased by 12,000, far below the expected 100,000.
Is the data being manipulated for the election?
Last time it was optimized to double, and this time they just reduced the previous increase, turning it into 10,000. It's really absurd, the market is completely confused..
However, this is beneficial for interest rate cuts, a long-term advantage.

Oh, what a disaster.
The recent crash in Bitcoin was triggered by the drop in the US stock market. Yesterday, the earnings reports of some major stocks fell short of expectations, causing the entire market to decline. Tonight, we should see a significant rebound in the US stock market, which will also lift the crypto market a bit.

Currently, the BTC trend is quite healthy; it has broken through 69,000 and is now retesting the previous high. The resistance from the previous rise is actually forming support, and in fact, 68,000 and 69,000 are relatively good entry points.
Yesterday, Shuqin analyzed at 72,500 that Bitcoin needed to dip down a bit to clear some leverage before continuing to rise. It just happened to dip a bit too deep, coinciding with a major correction in the US stock market, which is really painful.

Fortunately, in the past few days, we have been taking profits from Doge at highs, selling when the crowds were roaring; I've been calling for this for a week. Then there was the resistance at 180 for Sol, and I hope everyone managed to escape at the top.

Tonight, we will have employment and unemployment rate data, which should stir things up again. In terms of data, with the elections approaching, the employment numbers should not be low and will likely be somewhat beautified. However, strong employment is actually not good, as it will lower the expectations for interest rate cuts. We will find out at 8:30 tonight!

The needle we were waiting for has arrived.

The latest PCE and new unemployment data from the United States are here!
As shown in the picture:
PCE below expectations is positive, above expectations is negative.
The number of initial unemployment claims for the week below expectations is positive, above is negative.
If there is not much difference from expectations, then there is not much impact.

Is Bitcoin stuck? How will the market trend from here?
Usually, the upward trend of Bitcoin mostly follows
[Increase - Consolidation - Break Down Stop Loss - Continue Increase] this pattern, and right now we are in the consolidation phase.

I think if it can dip down a bit before continuing to rise, especially around 70600, that would be more logical.
However, tonight there will be PCE and unemployment claims, and tomorrow there will be employment data, which are variables.

Today's PCE is shown in the picture. The market expects 230,000 initial unemployment claims this week; lower than expectations is positive, higher is negative, and if it is close to expectations, there will be little impact.
Shu Qin will announce this live at 8:30 PM tonight, so everyone can pay attention~

Ethereum and Pepe are starting to strengthen~

Bitcoin is on the verge of breaking previous highs, and this time there are no surprises! The crypto market, after undergoing half a year of consolidation, is finally about to迎来 a new wave of upward momentum targeting 140,000. The current consensus in October is also demonstrating this moment perfectly, but November will see even greater increases!

Currently, Bitcoin is slightly encountering resistance at the previous high of 74,000, and it may experience a shallow pullback to 70,600. I've placed many orders and am patiently fishing to see if I can catch a wave.
However, these small gains are insignificant; the Bitcoin bull market has truly begun, and this time it will be a real breakthrough. Any pullback now is an opportunity to get on board.

As for altcoins, don't rush. Once Bitcoin finishes its surge, altcoin season will begin, and at that time, Pepe, WIF, and others will dance wildly, easily flying 5-10 times.
But the prerequisite is that you must hold on and be patient; don't get shaken out. The only uncertainty in the short term is whether Trump can win the election, and currently, his winning probability is 65%. Let's hope everything goes smoothly.

Now there's an even bigger question: if you make 10-20 times your investment next year, how will you spend all that money? Do you have a plan? Don't blow it all singing at clubs; be filial to your parents, they will be very happy.

Bigger ones are still to come!
The large-scale cup-handle rising pattern of Bitcoin daily line has just started. From the perspective of the pattern, this time it will rise to 120,000-140,000, which is equivalent to the depth of the cup belly.

In addition, newcomers must have a correct expectation of the bull market. The rise of Bitcoin is in the form of oscillation upward, stop and go, accompanied by occasional bursts. It is not the kind of burst that rises 10% every day.
Think about it, if Bitcoin bursts 10% every day, will the bull market be over in 5 days? In fact, the bull market will last for about 1 year. The chart is all daily lines. It takes more than half a year to complete the market. Don’t think about reaching 100,000 overnight every day. It takes several months. And if it rises too much, it will fall back a little. This is normal.

Then for small coins, we have firmly grasped the Doge trend. I have been shouting for 1 month, and I have been talking about it in every issue, for fear that everyone has not got on the bus. Now it has risen from 0.1 to the current 0.17. I wonder if everyone has got on the bus?
I think Doge can be stopped in batches, and our WIF ambushed on 2.2 can be held for a little longer.

Then yesterday I led everyone to ambush another Pepe that has a good chance of breaking out. The car was bought around 0.085 and 0.088. Congratulations to those who followed.
However, I expect that the two days before the election may not be peaceful, especially since Trump's chance of winning is 60%, not 100%, so there is still some suspense. Don't get too excited, and do a good job of risk control in the long term with low multiples to deal with emergencies~

Family, the big one is coming

The main force has risen again!
Bitcoin just made this big bullish line, it's so satisfying, let's aim for 69,000 again.
This wave is a second bottom test at the support of 65,500 that we have repeatedly mentioned; if it can't go lower, then it can only go up. Now we need to pay attention to whether the 70,000 mark can be broken.

I am very confident about the trends in the crypto market; even if it doesn't break this time, it will break next time. Bitcoin has been consolidating for over half a year, and those with weak willpower have already been washed out, leaving only us old holders who will never sell and will buy whenever we have money.

The main force's goal is the same as ours; they need the price to rise so they can make more money. Besides Wall Street, don't overlook the big players who run exchanges; they will definitely maintain the consensus for a 4-year bull market in the crypto space, otherwise, the myth of getting rich quickly will disappear, and fewer people will play. They will pull the market up at critical moments and break through resistance; we just need to be patient and wait.

Doge sprays a little~