LIVE阿正
@azheng
作为一名热爱投资的爱好者，我非常注重仓位和风险管理——投资绝不是赌博。我喜欢分享最新的行业资讯，交流交易心得，并不断学习研究市场趋势和交易策略。我也喜欢偶尔吃吃行业的瓜，结交新朋友。
最重要的提示：仅用闲钱投资！
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#知行合一挑战
Looking back at my previous transactions and currency analysis, I found that my previous judgments on certain currencies were accurate. I believe that many people will have this feeling: I am optimistic or bearish on a certain currency, and my judgment was accurate at the beginning, but due to other subjective or objective reasons, such as news, market fluctuations, breaking news, etc., I always overturn my previous views or trading strategies.
This is human nature and it is difficult to avoid. Most people are fickle or unsteady. We are all ordinary people. Those who can really set goals, fully execute, and be unwavering are rare.
But often such people who combine knowledge and action can finally succeed. I want to be such a person.
Set yourself a challenge of unity of knowledge and action, and establish your own trading rules, tentatively as follows:
1. Strictly stop profit and stop loss, and set a good profit and loss ratio;
2. Don't listen to other people's blind analysis, have your own judgment, and be responsible for your own decisions;
3. Regularly review data, investment and gambling are not the same thing, don't get carried away;
4. If you lose 3 transactions in a row, stop immediately and calm down;
5. Don't think of eating a fat man in one breath, there will be rises and falls;
6. After completing an order, don't take the next order immediately, learn to wait for an opportunity to enter the market with a short position;
7. Don't do high-multiple short-term contracts;
8. When you realize your mindset, take a break, short, and restart;
9. Separate accounts in different sectors, and don't involve each other. Don't make up the contract margin and cause a wave of losses.
10. The spot position cannot be less than the contract position.
Looking back at my previous transactions and currency analysis, I found that my previous judgments on certain currencies were accurate. I believe that many people will have this feeling: I am optimistic or bearish on a certain currency, and my judgment was accurate at the beginning, but due to other subjective or objective reasons, such as news, market fluctuations, breaking news, etc., I always overturn my previous views or trading strategies.
This is human nature and it is difficult to avoid. Most people are fickle or unsteady. We are all ordinary people. Those who can really set goals, fully execute, and be unwavering are rare.
But often such people who combine knowledge and action can finally succeed. I want to be such a person.
Set yourself a challenge of unity of knowledge and action, and establish your own trading rules, tentatively as follows:
1. Strictly stop profit and stop loss, and set a good profit and loss ratio;
2. Don't listen to other people's blind analysis, have your own judgment, and be responsible for your own decisions;
3. Regularly review data, investment and gambling are not the same thing, don't get carried away;
4. If you lose 3 transactions in a row, stop immediately and calm down;
5. Don't think of eating a fat man in one breath, there will be rises and falls;
6. After completing an order, don't take the next order immediately, learn to wait for an opportunity to enter the market with a short position;
7. Don't do high-multiple short-term contracts;
8. When you realize your mindset, take a break, short, and restart;
9. Separate accounts in different sectors, and don't involve each other. Don't make up the contract margin and cause a wave of losses.
10. The spot position cannot be less than the contract position.
See original
#BTC要挑战7W大关了吗？
Regarding whether Bitcoin can break through $70,000 in October, we analyze the following points:
1. CME Bitcoin futures open interest hits a new high: Open interest reaching a new high means that market participants are interested, especially institutional investors. Higher open interest often means that market sentiment is high and investors expect future price fluctuations. This may indicate that many institutional investors are optimistic about the future trend of Bitcoin.
2. Bitcoin ETF fund flow: Recent ETF fund net inflows or outflows can reflect investor sentiment. Large net inflows may mean that investors believe that Bitcoin has the potential to rise further; and if there is a continuous net outflow, it may indicate that market sentiment is conservative or bearish in the short term.
3. Macro environment and good news: There are only a dozen days left before the US election. If Trump wins, it will be a big boon to the entire crypto industry. When the copycat bull market comes, the currency price will most likely rise sharply.
Note:
CME Futures are financial derivatives launched by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) that allow investors to buy and sell contracts for various assets (such as Bitcoin, gold, crude oil, etc.). These contracts usually have an expiration date, allowing investors to speculate or hedge risks based on expected market trends. CME's Bitcoin futures are particularly important because it provides a compliant Bitcoin market that attracts a large number of institutional investors. Rising Bitcoin futures positions often mean increased interest in Bitcoin in the market, which may indicate that price fluctuations are coming.
Based on the above situation, market sentiment may currently be optimistic. However, whether it can break through $70,000 also needs to consider the following factors:
· Market volatility: Bitcoin has always been volatile, especially in the short term due to the risk appetite of the global market.
· Key resistance level: $70,000 is a psychological barrier, and breaking through this barrier requires strong buying momentum and market consensus.
$BTC $WLD $SUI
Combining these factors, Bitcoin is likely to break through $70,000 this month, but we still need to continue to pay attention to changes in capital flows and market sentiment. If ETF net inflows continue to increase and there is no major negative news, Bitcoin is likely to cross this high point.
Regarding whether Bitcoin can break through $70,000 in October, we analyze the following points:
1. CME Bitcoin futures open interest hits a new high: Open interest reaching a new high means that market participants are interested, especially institutional investors. Higher open interest often means that market sentiment is high and investors expect future price fluctuations. This may indicate that many institutional investors are optimistic about the future trend of Bitcoin.
2. Bitcoin ETF fund flow: Recent ETF fund net inflows or outflows can reflect investor sentiment. Large net inflows may mean that investors believe that Bitcoin has the potential to rise further; and if there is a continuous net outflow, it may indicate that market sentiment is conservative or bearish in the short term.
3. Macro environment and good news: There are only a dozen days left before the US election. If Trump wins, it will be a big boon to the entire crypto industry. When the copycat bull market comes, the currency price will most likely rise sharply.
Note:
CME Futures are financial derivatives launched by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) that allow investors to buy and sell contracts for various assets (such as Bitcoin, gold, crude oil, etc.). These contracts usually have an expiration date, allowing investors to speculate or hedge risks based on expected market trends. CME's Bitcoin futures are particularly important because it provides a compliant Bitcoin market that attracts a large number of institutional investors. Rising Bitcoin futures positions often mean increased interest in Bitcoin in the market, which may indicate that price fluctuations are coming.
Based on the above situation, market sentiment may currently be optimistic. However, whether it can break through $70,000 also needs to consider the following factors:
· Market volatility: Bitcoin has always been volatile, especially in the short term due to the risk appetite of the global market.
· Key resistance level: $70,000 is a psychological barrier, and breaking through this barrier requires strong buying momentum and market consensus.
$BTC $WLD $SUI
Combining these factors, Bitcoin is likely to break through $70,000 this month, but we still need to continue to pay attention to changes in capital flows and market sentiment. If ETF net inflows continue to increase and there is no major negative news, Bitcoin is likely to cross this high point.
See original
Yesterday's $WLD
The short position was stopped out,
Try another one today. 2.19 has been shorted, stop loss 2.28, take profit 1.88,
One or two, but not three, don't let me down, go for it👻,
Play with contracts to earn some money to cover spot positions,
All the fake spot currencies held will not be sold unless they are 10 times higher.
The short position was stopped out,
Try another one today. 2.19 has been shorted, stop loss 2.28, take profit 1.88,
One or two, but not three, don't let me down, go for it👻,
Play with contracts to earn some money to cover spot positions,
All the fake spot currencies held will not be sold unless they are 10 times higher.
See original
I feel the callback is coming, I don't know whether it is a big callback or a small callback, WLD 2.205 is already empty, stop loss 2.28, don't let it down, go for it 👻, small play contracts to cover the spot, all Shanshanzhai cash will not be sold if it is less than 10 times. $WLD $BTC $ETH
See original
After checking the net inflow and outflow (USD) data of Bitcoin spot ETF yesterday, Grayscale's GBTC spot ETF actually had a net inflow of 37.8 million US dollars on that day, which is rare for Grayscale, which was previously a large "continuous net outflow". No wonder Bitcoin rose so fiercely yesterday! Keep an eye on the data changes to see if it is a scam or it is really going to take off🛫️. $BTC $ETH $BNB
See original
"Friends" series from nothing? $SUI $WLD $DOGS
Everyone knows that the tokens of each project have their own economic model distribution plan, but you know that the economic model distribution plan stipulated in the white paper seems to be open and transparent, but in fact many of them can be operated in secret. From a friend I know who has worked in multiple project parties in the crypto industry, I learned that there are many ways for cryptocurrency project parties to obtain tokens, including but not limited to:
1. Founding team or internal staff: The core team and early contributors of the project party usually reserve a certain proportion of tokens as rewards and incentives. These tokens may have a lock-up period to ensure that the team participates in the development of the project for a long time.
2. Marketing activities and airdrops: The project party can distribute tokens through airdrops or marketing activities to increase the popularity of the project. Users can also get tokens for free by participating in specific tasks, sharing on social media, joining communities, etc.
3. Community contribution or development rewards: Some projects have established reward mechanisms for community contributors or developers. For example, token rewards can be obtained by submitting code, improving project functions, or providing other contributions (such as copywriting, translation, etc.).
4. Liquidity mining and staking: Project parties can distribute tokens through DeFi's liquidity mining or staking. Users can get project tokens in return by providing liquidity, locking tokens, or participating in protocol governance.
5. Partners or consultants: Project parties may distribute tokens to strategic partners or consultants in exchange for resources, technical support, or marketing.
6. Institutional investors or venture capital: During the private placement or financing stage, project parties can sell tokens to venture capital or institutional investors at a lower price to raise funds.
7. Exchange listing fees: Project parties sometimes need to pay a certain number of tokens to exchanges as listing fees or cooperation conditions. These fees may also be used for market making or increasing trading liquidity.
8. Project governance: When token holders participate in project governance or voting, the project owner may reward token holders or users who initiate governance proposals.
The "operability" of these methods is very high, so I won't explain them in detail. Those who understand will understand!
Everyone knows that the tokens of each project have their own economic model distribution plan, but you know that the economic model distribution plan stipulated in the white paper seems to be open and transparent, but in fact many of them can be operated in secret. From a friend I know who has worked in multiple project parties in the crypto industry, I learned that there are many ways for cryptocurrency project parties to obtain tokens, including but not limited to:
1. Founding team or internal staff: The core team and early contributors of the project party usually reserve a certain proportion of tokens as rewards and incentives. These tokens may have a lock-up period to ensure that the team participates in the development of the project for a long time.
2. Marketing activities and airdrops: The project party can distribute tokens through airdrops or marketing activities to increase the popularity of the project. Users can also get tokens for free by participating in specific tasks, sharing on social media, joining communities, etc.
3. Community contribution or development rewards: Some projects have established reward mechanisms for community contributors or developers. For example, token rewards can be obtained by submitting code, improving project functions, or providing other contributions (such as copywriting, translation, etc.).
4. Liquidity mining and staking: Project parties can distribute tokens through DeFi's liquidity mining or staking. Users can get project tokens in return by providing liquidity, locking tokens, or participating in protocol governance.
5. Partners or consultants: Project parties may distribute tokens to strategic partners or consultants in exchange for resources, technical support, or marketing.
6. Institutional investors or venture capital: During the private placement or financing stage, project parties can sell tokens to venture capital or institutional investors at a lower price to raise funds.
7. Exchange listing fees: Project parties sometimes need to pay a certain number of tokens to exchanges as listing fees or cooperation conditions. These fees may also be used for market making or increasing trading liquidity.
8. Project governance: When token holders participate in project governance or voting, the project owner may reward token holders or users who initiate governance proposals.
The "operability" of these methods is very high, so I won't explain them in detail. Those who understand will understand!
See original
I made a little profit from the short position of Sui a few days ago and then ran away. I am so ashamed.
Today Sui gave me another chance. I hope I can hold on for a while. The selling pressure above 2 dollars is too strong. I guess some people are selling and some are preparing to stand guard. After all, many people are cheering Sui and saying that it is the next Sol. There are always people who get on the train by CX, and you find that this sentence sounds so familiar. XXX is the next XXX...
But those who always benchmark the next XX seem to have a mediocre ending. They will never become the next XX, for example:
EOS is the next ETH
FIL is the next BTC
Tugoumeme is the next DOGE shib
XXX chain game is the next AXS is the next running shoe
Too many... $SUI $SOL $ETH
Today Sui gave me another chance. I hope I can hold on for a while. The selling pressure above 2 dollars is too strong. I guess some people are selling and some are preparing to stand guard. After all, many people are cheering Sui and saying that it is the next Sol. There are always people who get on the train by CX, and you find that this sentence sounds so familiar. XXX is the next XXX...
But those who always benchmark the next XX seem to have a mediocre ending. They will never become the next XX, for example:
EOS is the next ETH
FIL is the next BTC
Tugoumeme is the next DOGE shib
XXX chain game is the next AXS is the next running shoe
Too many... $SUI $SOL $ETH
LIVE阿正
--
Bearish
$SUI is really strong. Many people are saying that Sui is the Sol of last year, but I don’t believe it.
Despite the pressure of unlocking and the FUD of large investors selling, it has been forced to go up by 2 knives. I really admire this.
But admiration aside, I think its diluted market value is still too high, and it is still necessary to go short.
I opened a short order of suiusdt perpetual, with a stop loss of 2.5 USDT, and the position is relatively small.
Wish me good luck, and I hope everyone who sees it will make money!
Despite the pressure of unlocking and the FUD of large investors selling, it has been forced to go up by 2 knives. I really admire this.
But admiration aside, I think its diluted market value is still too high, and it is still necessary to go short.
I opened a short order of suiusdt perpetual, with a stop loss of 2.5 USDT, and the position is relatively small.
Wish me good luck, and I hope everyone who sees it will make money!
See original
I remember that I had been shorting WLD when it was around $$WLD 9, but because I didn’t control the leverage ratio well, I ended up leaving the market with a loss. The risk of shorting contracts is still too high, and the returns are far less than what I would earn. And if you encounter a market maker with strong funds, you will be at risk of being eaten up by the market maker if you are not careful.
Worldcoin has experienced a 7-month decline, from the highest point of 11.972 to the current lowest point of 1.284.
Now we come to the current price of 1.73. The following are the reasons why it can be held at present:
1. 71% of holders are still in a loss state. Most holders are unwilling to sell at a loss, and there will be no increase in selling pressure in the short term;
2. At present, most bearish Worldcoin believes that the main reason for its difficulty in rising is because of the continuous unlocking and inflow of coins into the market. However, a large number of coins on the market currently have a large number of coins to be unlocked, such as SUI, which is also constantly unlocking. Now it is also rising strongly. In addition, the previous SUI has fallen to a minimum of 0.4625, which is 79% lower than the previous highest point of 2.1829. The large amount of coins to be unlocked does not mean that it cannot rise;
3. Recent good news:
News 1: Worldcoin launched the WorldID verification service in the Dominican Republic. According to Blockchain.com, Worldcoin announced the launch of this service on October 10, 2024. World ID is a privacy-first decentralized identity protocol that can be used as a digital passport to prove that the user is a unique and real individual without sharing personal data such as name and email. News 2: Worldcoin's new project WorldChain is also preparing to go live, and has announced a number of important integrations, including collaborations with projects such as Dora, Hyperlane, Moralis, Bridge and Unlimit.
News 3: Worldcoin's World ID service has been expanded to Solana through Wormhole funding, enhancing the ability of cross-chain identity authentication.
Of course, it is not all good news, there are also some risks:
Worldcoin's services may be subject to regulatory restrictions or investigations in some countries and regions. For example, the Kenyan government has suspended Worldcoin-related activities, and countries such as Germany, the United Kingdom, and France are also investigating Worldcoin. This shows that while promoting its services, Worldcoin also needs to deal with legal and regulatory challenges in different countries and regions.
Worldcoin has experienced a 7-month decline, from the highest point of 11.972 to the current lowest point of 1.284.
Now we come to the current price of 1.73. The following are the reasons why it can be held at present:
1. 71% of holders are still in a loss state. Most holders are unwilling to sell at a loss, and there will be no increase in selling pressure in the short term;
2. At present, most bearish Worldcoin believes that the main reason for its difficulty in rising is because of the continuous unlocking and inflow of coins into the market. However, a large number of coins on the market currently have a large number of coins to be unlocked, such as SUI, which is also constantly unlocking. Now it is also rising strongly. In addition, the previous SUI has fallen to a minimum of 0.4625, which is 79% lower than the previous highest point of 2.1829. The large amount of coins to be unlocked does not mean that it cannot rise;
3. Recent good news:
News 1: Worldcoin launched the WorldID verification service in the Dominican Republic. According to Blockchain.com, Worldcoin announced the launch of this service on October 10, 2024. World ID is a privacy-first decentralized identity protocol that can be used as a digital passport to prove that the user is a unique and real individual without sharing personal data such as name and email. News 2: Worldcoin's new project WorldChain is also preparing to go live, and has announced a number of important integrations, including collaborations with projects such as Dora, Hyperlane, Moralis, Bridge and Unlimit.
News 3: Worldcoin's World ID service has been expanded to Solana through Wormhole funding, enhancing the ability of cross-chain identity authentication.
Of course, it is not all good news, there are also some risks:
Worldcoin's services may be subject to regulatory restrictions or investigations in some countries and regions. For example, the Kenyan government has suspended Worldcoin-related activities, and countries such as Germany, the United Kingdom, and France are also investigating Worldcoin. This shows that while promoting its services, Worldcoin also needs to deal with legal and regulatory challenges in different countries and regions.
LIVE阿正
--
Bearish
$#WLD $WLD
Summary and reflections of wld7 days:
1. Combined with the results of the previous voting survey "Do you think the current diluted market value of wld is artificially high?" Everyone's voting results are: 72% of the votes are yes (inflated) and 28% are no (value) votes;
2. After observing the market trend of wld for 7 days, it broke through 9 USDT three times (9.037, 9.183, 9.450 respectively), but each time after breaking through 9 USDT, there was a certain degree of correction, and the high point was higher each time. The lows are lower each time (7.841, 7.600, 7.522 respectively), indicating that above 9 USDT is the psychological selling price of some holding users (including some dealers); it feels that the trend of its 4-hour line is slowly increasing weaken.
3. The funding rate has been positive in the past few days, and the funding rate is between 0.01 and 0.07. As for the overall contract position, there are always more bullish people than bearish people;
4. I personally think that its diluted market value is definitely exaggerated (before it becomes a truly mainstream currency). However, with its current circulation of only more than 130 million, the cost of market control by market makers is relatively small. It's possible to go any high.
5. In the past few days, I have been adding to the short position of wld at 8.5 USDT and above, increasing the average opening price of the position from 7.1 to 7.9, and closing the position between 7.7-7.8 today;
6. I didn’t earn much USDT from my trading operations on wld in the past 7 days, but I became more determined about the next position opening direction and operations.
Conclusion: Above 9 USDT is currently a relatively safe short position price. WLD is bullish in the short term and short in the long term. When knowledge and action are united, after the great heat, there must be a great cold!
Summary and reflections of wld7 days:
1. Combined with the results of the previous voting survey "Do you think the current diluted market value of wld is artificially high?" Everyone's voting results are: 72% of the votes are yes (inflated) and 28% are no (value) votes;
2. After observing the market trend of wld for 7 days, it broke through 9 USDT three times (9.037, 9.183, 9.450 respectively), but each time after breaking through 9 USDT, there was a certain degree of correction, and the high point was higher each time. The lows are lower each time (7.841, 7.600, 7.522 respectively), indicating that above 9 USDT is the psychological selling price of some holding users (including some dealers); it feels that the trend of its 4-hour line is slowly increasing weaken.
3. The funding rate has been positive in the past few days, and the funding rate is between 0.01 and 0.07. As for the overall contract position, there are always more bullish people than bearish people;
4. I personally think that its diluted market value is definitely exaggerated (before it becomes a truly mainstream currency). However, with its current circulation of only more than 130 million, the cost of market control by market makers is relatively small. It's possible to go any high.
5. In the past few days, I have been adding to the short position of wld at 8.5 USDT and above, increasing the average opening price of the position from 7.1 to 7.9, and closing the position between 7.7-7.8 today;
6. I didn’t earn much USDT from my trading operations on wld in the past 7 days, but I became more determined about the next position opening direction and operations.
Conclusion: Above 9 USDT is currently a relatively safe short position price. WLD is bullish in the short term and short in the long term. When knowledge and action are united, after the great heat, there must be a great cold!
See original
Uniswap, unicorn 🦄️, long-term bullish!
Yesterday, according to market news, BANKLESS PODCAST revealed that Uniswap may launch UNICHAIN.
The current market has hot spots, there are favorable factors in the near future, and there is a steady stream of sustainable fee income in the long term. How can it not rise!
2024 Q4 first small goal is to break $10;
2025 Crypto Bull breaks the previous high of $45;
I don’t know how high the upper limit is. The decentralized sector is a major trend. Do you really not hold a little bit of Uniswap, the leader of this sector? $UNI
Yesterday, according to market news, BANKLESS PODCAST revealed that Uniswap may launch UNICHAIN.
The current market has hot spots, there are favorable factors in the near future, and there is a steady stream of sustainable fee income in the long term. How can it not rise!
2024 Q4 first small goal is to break $10;
2025 Crypto Bull breaks the previous high of $45;
I don’t know how high the upper limit is. The decentralized sector is a major trend. Do you really not hold a little bit of Uniswap, the leader of this sector? $UNI
LIVE阿正
--
Bullish
Uniswap is a decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol based on the Ethereum blockchain that aims to automate transactions between ERC-20 tokens through smart contracts. The project was launched by Hayden Adams in November 2018 and is the most influential decentralized exchange (DEX) in the cryptocurrency field.
The old project $UNI is waiting for the bull to come, and it is not a waste. 5 reasons for recommendation:
1. Source of income: (fixed revenue)
Uniswap Labs has earned $51 million in revenue in the past six months by charging a 0.25% transaction fee to support research and development.
2. Strong market demand: (accurate demand scenario)
Despite the increase in fees, the market demand for Uniswap remains strong, especially on the Ethereum platform, with daily trading volume reaching $680 million.
3. Fee income and locked value: (DEX leader No. 1)
Uniswap's daily fee income can reach 2 million US dollars, annualized income exceeds 375 million US dollars, and the current total locked value is 4.83 billion US dollars.
4. Investment and sustainable development: (no shortage of investors)
Uniswap raised 165 million US dollars in the venture capital round, attracted investors such as Polychain Capital and Andreessen Horowitz, and focused on sustainable development.
5. UNI token performance:
UNI tokens have fallen by more than 90% from the peak price of 45 US dollars in the last bull market, and are already at a low point, with a lot of room for upward movement.
The old project $UNI is waiting for the bull to come, and it is not a waste. 5 reasons for recommendation:
1. Source of income: (fixed revenue)
Uniswap Labs has earned $51 million in revenue in the past six months by charging a 0.25% transaction fee to support research and development.
2. Strong market demand: (accurate demand scenario)
Despite the increase in fees, the market demand for Uniswap remains strong, especially on the Ethereum platform, with daily trading volume reaching $680 million.
3. Fee income and locked value: (DEX leader No. 1)
Uniswap's daily fee income can reach 2 million US dollars, annualized income exceeds 375 million US dollars, and the current total locked value is 4.83 billion US dollars.
4. Investment and sustainable development: (no shortage of investors)
Uniswap raised 165 million US dollars in the venture capital round, attracted investors such as Polychain Capital and Andreessen Horowitz, and focused on sustainable development.
5. UNI token performance:
UNI tokens have fallen by more than 90% from the peak price of 45 US dollars in the last bull market, and are already at a low point, with a lot of room for upward movement.
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