山川湖海

When the direction is not clear, shorting is also a kind of wisdom

The probability of a 50bps rate cut is getting higher and higher. If the rate is cut by 50bps, it may trigger emotions, and the market will change its downward trend. It will also speed up the market and the bull market will come early.
polymarket data

According to ABC: The U.S. Federal General Services Administration said that on the second day after American music queen Taylor Swift expressed her support for U.S. Vice President Harris on Instagram, more than 330,000 people visited the voter registration website link she attached. As of today, Polymarket predicts that Harris's probability in the market has surpassed. Taylor Swift supported Biden's election in 2020. If Trump fails to win the election this year, it may lead to a decline?

The CPI data exceeded expectations, the original value was 3.4%, the expected value was 3.4%, and the actual value was 3.3%, which exceeded expectations. This is definitely a positive.

The Fed’s June interest rate meeting: unanimously agreed to keep the interest rate unchanged. The dot plot shows that the expectation of interest rate cuts this year has been reduced to 1 time and increased to 4 times next year. The statement said that inflation has made moderate progress recently and raised the long-term interest rate expectation to 2.8%. Powell said that if necessary, interest rates will continue to remain unchanged. If employment is unexpectedly weak, it will respond to this. He did not promise the path of interest rate cuts, and it is not time to announce the interest rate cut node. This meeting has reflected the preliminary CPI data in May, and no one has set the interest rate hike as the baseline.

Have you noticed that the market has gradually cooled down, and everyone is not talkative anymore😂