硅谷居士搬运号

The discussion about the possibility of a breakthrough in the situation in Iran is heating up. According to the latest data feedback from Polymarket's predictive market, there has been a significant increase in the public's expectation that the conflict will come to an end by the end of April.

Data shows that the probability of the war ending by the end of April has now risen to 67%. This number has changed very quickly, as just two days ago, the likelihood of ending the conflict at that time was only 47%. This indicates that market sentiment is rapidly shifting towards a de-escalation of the situation.

https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-ceasefire-by

Oil prices demonstrate a roller coaster market: first a surge followed by a sharp drop

On March 9th, the crude oil market initially showed considerable strength, with prices surging sharply. Intraday data indicated that WTI crude oil prices had reached a high of $119 per barrel.

In response to this situation, the G7 group of nations immediately stated that they would maintain stability in the international market by utilizing oil reserves. At the same time, France took substantive action, announcing the dispatch of an aircraft carrier and frigates to the Strait of Hormuz for escort missions.

As a result of these measures, the trend in crude oil prices quickly reversed, experiencing a significant pullback. By noon EST on March 9th, the WTI crude oil price had fallen back to $95.

Crude Oil Market Experiences Dramatic Fluctuations: Sharp Decline After Surge

On March 9, international oil prices experienced a rollercoaster-like trend, with WTI crude oil prices surging to a high of $119 per barrel at one point during the day. Immediately afterward, the G7 group announced it would utilize oil reserves to stabilize international market fluctuations; at the same time, France officially reported that it would dispatch an aircraft carrier and frigates to the Strait of Hormuz for escort missions. As a result of this series of news, crude oil prices subsequently plummeted. As of noon Eastern Time on March 9, WTI crude oil prices had fallen back to $95.

US gasoline prices surged significantly by 15% in a week

In the past week, US gasoline prices skyrocketed by 15%, reaching a level of $3.4 per gallon, equivalent to about 6.2 yuan per liter. During the same period, international crude oil prices also rose by 35%.

Which major countries do not regard International Women's Day on March 8th?

Although International Women's Day on March 8th is a globally recognized holiday by the United Nations, the degree of importance and holiday arrangements for this day vary greatly among countries due to historical backgrounds, cultural traditions, and political inclinations.

Among populous countries, many typically do not recognize March 8th as a statutory public holiday, and even the grassroots celebration atmosphere is relatively subdued.

Below, we will briefly introduce some of them.

1. United States

Status: Not a statutory holiday.

Although the United States is one of the origins of Women's Day (New York in 1909), the federal government currently does not grant a holiday. Americans are more inclined to designate the entire month of March as "Women's History Month."

More importantly, the early significance of this holiday had a strong socialist connotation, which was downplayed by mainstream American society during the Cold War.

2. India

Status: Not a statutory holiday.

Although Indian media and urban elites organize related activities, and women are beginning to value this day, for the vast majority of the Indian population, it is not a public holiday.

Some regions of India place more importance on local female-related festivals.

3. Japan

Status: Does not celebrate International Women's Day on March 8th.

Japanese society has little habit of celebrating March 8th.

However, Japan has a very famous festival on March 3rd called "Hinamatsuri" (also known as Girls' Day or Peach Blossom Festival), which is a grand holiday in Japanese tradition to pray for the healthy growth of girls.

4. Brazil

Status: Not a statutory holiday.

In Brazil, this is more a day of commercial and political declaration. People send flowers or hold gatherings to discuss women's rights, but society as a whole does not take a holiday.

5. Nigeria and Pakistan

Status: Not a statutory holiday.

Although these countries participate in related discussions at the international level, they do not establish a holiday at the national level. In Pakistan, in recent years, there has been an "Aurat March" (Women’s March), but it is accompanied by significant social controversy.

In contrast, some major countries celebrate International Women's Day on March 8th more ceremoniously.

1. China

Status: Statutory half-day holiday. However, this holiday is only for women.

2. Russia

Status: Extremely ceremonious. This is one of the most important statutory holidays in Russia, with a nationwide holiday, and men usually give flowers and gifts to female friends and relatives.

3. Vietnam

Status: Vietnam not only celebrates March 8th, but also has a local "Vietnamese Women’s Day" on October 20th. Both of these holidays are highly regarded.

What investors fear most is the uncertainty in the market and the severe volatility, which I deeply detest. In the face of the current situation, I am eager to know when this war will finally come to an end. Reflecting on February 28, 2026, Israel and the United States suddenly joined forces and unexpectedly launched a large-scale airstrike against Iran. Subsequently, Iran quickly retaliated, using drones and missiles to attack other countries in the Gulf, Israel's mainland, and U.S. military bases in the Middle East, leading to the full outbreak of the Iran war.

Just a week into the war, crude oil prices soared by 35%, and global financial markets plunged into panic, with major U.S. stock indices experiencing wild fluctuations akin to a roller coaster. Although I have a slight understanding of military history, the battlefield situation changes rapidly, and international politics is even more elusive; it is impossible for an individual to predict the exact end point of the war.

However, it is fortunate that we can leverage collective intelligence to assess the trajectory of such complex events, and the Polymarket website is currently one of the most trusted information sources. This platform allows users worldwide to place bets on various events with real money, and automatically calculates the probability of outcomes based on trading data from both sides. In previous years, this mechanism has accurately predicted many major international events, such as the recent U.S. raid on Iran, the U.S. invasion of Venezuela in 2026, and the U.S. presidential election in 2024.

On Polymarket, there is currently a prediction market about when the U.S. and Iran will reach a ceasefire agreement. As of now, the total amount bet by participants has reached approximately $15 million. According to the latest data shown on the website on March 6, 2026, the probabilities of reaching a ceasefire at different time points are as follows: 11% by March 15, rising to 28% by March 31, 47% by April 30, 58% by May 31, and 68% by June 30.

If we use collective intelligence as a basis for judgment, we can infer that the war is highly likely to end before the end of May. In addition, the website has also set up another intriguing bet regarding when the U.S. will send ground troops into Iran. Current data shows that the probability of U.S. troops entering Iran by the end of the year is 62%. Although collective predictions are not absolutely accurate and there are times when they fail, they do provide us with a highly valuable reference point to help us formulate wiser financial strategies amid turmoil.

The Turbulent Moments of the Eurasian Plate in 2026: A Scan of Five Battlefields

Entering 2026, we find ourselves in a challenging and eventful time. Just looking at the Eurasian continent, we can see five intense wars unfolding simultaneously. These conflicts are as follows: the ongoing war in Ukraine, the war in Iran, the conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan, the confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah, and the civil war in Yemen.

Overview of the Eurasian Continent's War Situation in 2026: Five Key Conflicts

In the present of 2026, we are facing a complex international security environment. On the Eurasian continent alone, there are currently five wars being fiercely fought. These five conflict hotspots are: the Ukraine war; the Iran war; the Pakistan and Afghanistan war; the war between Israel and Hezbollah; and the Yemeni civil war.

Predicting When the US-Iran Conflict Will Come to an End

On February 28, 2026, the United States, in conjunction with Israel, suddenly launched a fierce and large-scale airstrike against Iran. Tehran quickly responded militarily, launching drones and missiles targeting Gulf countries, Israeli territory, and US military bases in the Middle East, leading to a full-scale outbreak of war.

Just a week into the fighting, the international crude oil market experienced severe turbulence, with oil prices soaring by 35%. At the same time, the global financial world was in a state of panic, with major US stock indexes experiencing extreme volatility akin to a roller coaster over the past few days. For investors like me, who detest risk and high volatility, the most urgent question is: when will this conflict come to an end?

Although I have some knowledge of military history, facing the rapidly changing battlefield situation and the unpredictable nature of international politics, relying solely on personal experience is clearly insufficient to accurately predict the timing of the end of the war.

Fortunately, we can leverage collective wisdom to assess the trajectory of such complex events. Currently, the Polymarket website is a platform of significant reference value. This site allows users worldwide to bet real money on specific events and automatically calculates the probability of an event occurring based on the flow of funds. Looking back over the past few years, this mechanism has successfully predicted many major international events, including the 2024 US presidential election, the 2026 US invasion of Venezuela, and even the recent US military strike against Iran.

On Polymarket, the prediction market regarding when the US and Iran will reach a ceasefire agreement has garnered considerable attention, with participants having invested approximately $15 million thus far.

According to the data updated on March 6, 2026, by this site, the probabilities of reaching a ceasefire at different time points are as follows: March 15 is 11%, rising to 28% by March 31, reaching 47% by April 30, and exceeding half at 58% by May 31, reaching as high as 68% by June 30.

If we trust this collective wisdom's judgment, then there is a high probability that the fighting will come to a close before the end of May.

Another noteworthy piece of data concerns the prediction of ground actions. Another betting market on the site shows a 62% probability that the US will send ground troops into Iran by the end of this year.

Indeed, collective predictions are not absolutely accurate and can sometimes miss the mark. However, it is undeniable that it provides us with a relatively scientific and objective reference dimension that helps us formulate wiser financial strategies in a turbulent market.

This scene seems to take us back to the Pacific battlefield during World War II: an Iranian frigate sank after being torpedoed by a U.S. submarine.

https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/04/politics/video/hegseth-confirms-us-sinks-iranian-warship-digvid

An Iranian frigate sank after being attacked by a U.S. submarine's torpedo. Looking back, the U.S. submarine forces made significant achievements in the Pacific theater during World War II, sinking over 1,300 Japanese ships in total. As we witness this scene unfolding before us, are we witnessing a reenactment of that historical period in the Pacific theater?

https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/04/politics/video/hegseth-confirms-us-sinks-iranian-warship-digvid

Looking back at the history of World War II, the U.S. submarine forces left an indelible mark on the Pacific theater. According to statistics, 55% of the Japanese ships sunk at that time were at the hands of U.S. submarines, totaling over 1300 vessels. These brave submarine crews are undoubtedly significant unsung heroes. And at this moment, we see U.S. submarines launching torpedoes again, sinking an Iranian frigate. This inevitably raises the question: is the scene from the Pacific battlefield of yesteryear being replayed today?

https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/04/politics/video/hegseth-confirms-us-sinks-iranian-warship-digvid

Inventory of U.S. Military Deployments Overseas: Ranking of Countries with the Largest Troop Presence

Looking at the current international geopolitical landscape, U.S. military footprints are almost everywhere in the world. This global military presence not only symbolizes power but also profoundly reflects the diplomatic relations, security agreements, and economic ties between the United States and various countries.

The following content details the top 20 sovereign countries currently hosting the largest number of U.S. troops, along with their nominal per capita GDP data for reference.

The rankings and country details are as follows:

Rank 1: Japan (Troop Presence: 54,000; Per Capita GDP: $36,000)
Rank 2: Germany (Troop Presence: 36,000; Per Capita GDP: $64,000)
Rank 3: South Korea (Troop Presence: 24,000; Per Capita GDP: $38,000)
Rank 4: Kuwait (Troop Presence: 14,000; Per Capita GDP: $31,000)
Rank 5: Italy (Troop Presence: 13,000; Per Capita GDP: $46,000)
Rank 6: United Kingdom (Troop Presence: 10,000; Per Capita GDP: $60,000)
Rank 7: Qatar (Troop Presence: 10,000; Per Capita GDP: $77,000)
Rank 8: Spain (Troop Presence: 3,700; Per Capita GDP: $41,000)
Rank 9: Bahrain (Troop Presence: 3,400; Per Capita GDP: $30,000)
Rank 10: Saudi Arabia (Troop Presence: 2,700; Per Capita GDP: $36,000)
Rank 11: Turkey (Troop Presence: 1,700; Per Capita GDP: $18,000)
Rank 12: Belgium (Troop Presence: 1,100; Per Capita GDP: $64,000)
Rank 13: Netherlands (Troop Presence: 420; Per Capita GDP: $78,000)
Rank 14: Greece (Troop Presence: 410; Per Capita GDP: $29,000)
Rank 15: Poland (Troop Presence: 340; Per Capita GDP: $31,000)
Rank 16: Honduras (Troop Presence: 340; Per Capita GDP: $36,000)
Rank 17: Australia (Troop Presence: 320; Per Capita GDP: $69,000)
Rank 18: Singapore (Troop Presence: 260; Per Capita GDP: $99,000)
Rank 19: Portugal (Troop Presence: 230; Per Capita GDP: $34,000)
Rank 20: Egypt (Troop Presence: 190; Per Capita GDP: $3,200)

Undoubtedly, maintaining the operations of these overseas bases means that the U.S. government and taxpayers must bear enormous economic costs. According to the latest statistical data, the United States currently has approximately 750 military bases in about 80 countries, with annual expenditures approaching $100 billion.

Unveiling the Global Deployment of the U.S. Military: Ranking of Countries by Number of Troops

Looking at the current international geopolitical landscape, the military footprint of the United States spans almost every corner of the globe. This global military presence is not merely a display of force; it also carries complex diplomatic relations, various security agreements, and deep economic ties.

To provide a more intuitive understanding of the distribution of U.S. troops worldwide, we have compiled a list of the top 20 sovereign countries by the number of U.S. military personnel stationed, along with their nominal per capita GDP data for reference.

Rank 1 Japan: Troops 54,000, Per Capita GDP $36,000
Rank 2 Germany: Troops 36,000, Per Capita GDP $64,000
Rank 3 South Korea: Troops 24,000, Per Capita GDP $38,000
Rank 4 Kuwait: Troops 14,000, Per Capita GDP $31,000
Rank 5 Italy: Troops 13,000, Per Capita GDP $46,000
Rank 6 United Kingdom: Troops 10,000, Per Capita GDP $60,000
Rank 7 Qatar: Troops 10,000, Per Capita GDP $77,000
Rank 8 Spain: Troops 3,700, Per Capita GDP $41,000
Rank 9 Bahrain: Troops 3,400, Per Capita GDP $30,000
Rank 10 Saudi Arabia: Troops 2,700, Per Capita GDP $36,000
Rank 11 Turkey: Troops 1,700, Per Capita GDP $18,000
Rank 12 Belgium: Troops 1,100, Per Capita GDP $64,000
Rank 13 Netherlands: Troops 420, Per Capita GDP $78,000
Rank 14 Greece: Troops 410, Per Capita GDP $29,000
Rank 15 Poland: Troops 340, Per Capita GDP $31,000
Rank 16 Honduras: Troops 340, Per Capita GDP $36,000
Rank 17 Australia: Troops 320, Per Capita GDP $69,000
Rank 18 Singapore: Troops 260, Per Capita GDP $99,000
Rank 19 Portugal: Troops 230, Per Capita GDP $34,000
Rank 20 Egypt: Troops 190, Per Capita GDP $3,200

Undoubtedly, to maintain the normal operation of these overseas bases, the U.S. government and its taxpayers bear an extremely high economic cost.

Inventory of the U.S. Military's Global Deployment Focus: A List of Countries with the Largest Troop Numbers

Examining the current global geopolitical map, it is evident that the U.S. military's footprint has spread to every corner of the world. This extensive military presence not only showcases hard power but also directly reflects various diplomatic strategies, security agreements, and economic cooperation.

We have conducted a detailed analysis of the top 20 sovereign countries hosting the largest number of U.S. troops, along with each country's nominal per capita GDP data for comparative observation:

Ranking Country Troop Size Per Capita GDP
1 Japan 54,000 36,000 USD
2 Germany 36,000 64,000 USD
3 South Korea 24,000 38,000 USD
4 Kuwait 14,000 31,000 USD
5 Italy 13,000 46,000 USD
6 United Kingdom 10,000 60,000 USD
7 Qatar 10,000 77,000 USD
8 Spain 3,700 41,000 USD
9 Bahrain 3,400 30,000 USD
10 Saudi Arabia 2,700 36,000 USD
11 Turkey 1,700 18,000 USD
12 Belgium 1,100 64,000 USD
13 Netherlands 420 78,000 USD
14 Greece 410 29,000 USD
15 Poland 340 31,000 USD
16 Honduras 340 36,000 USD
17 Australia 320 69,000 USD
18 Singapore 260 99,000 USD
19 Portugal 230 34,000 USD
20 Egypt 190 3,200 USD

It is noteworthy that to maintain the normal operation of these overseas military bases, significant financial costs have been incurred by the U.S. government and taxpayers.

US submarines sank an Iranian frigate with torpedoes

During World War II, US submarine forces sank more than 1,300 Japanese ships in the Pacific theater, accounting for 55% of all Japanese ships sunk.

They are undoubtedly the unsung heroes of great merit.

Is this scene a replay of yesterday's Pacific battlefield?

https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/04/politics/video/hegseth-confirms-us-sinks-iranian-warship-digvid

When seeing Iran being attacked, people might feel confused: why do the neighboring Muslim countries choose to stand by? A closer look at the map shows that Iran is actually surrounded by 11 Muslim countries, including Turkey, Azerbaijan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen, Oman, the UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait.

Although they all belong to the Islamic world, there are significant sectarian divides. Except for Iraq, the surrounding Muslim countries are predominantly Sunni, while Iran is dominated by Shia Islam. Coupled with Iran's expansionist policies and its long-standing confrontation with the Western world, these originally brotherly nations tend to view it more as a competitor or even an enemy, rather than an ally.

Moreover, the differences in ethnic composition cannot be overlooked. The main ethnic group in Iran is Persians, while the neighboring Muslim countries are mainly composed of Arabs or Turks. This notion of 'not of my kind' makes it difficult for them to unite.

A more critical geopolitical factor is that the United States has established military bases and stationed troops in 7 of these 11 neighboring countries: Turkey, Oman, the UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait.

Faced with such a severe geopolitical situation, Iran's current position can be described as isolated and helpless; even if a deity were to come, it would be difficult to lend a helping hand.

When Iran faces strikes, why do the surrounding Muslim neighbors choose to stay out of it? We must know that Iran is actually surrounded by 11 Muslim countries, specifically including Turkey, Azerbaijan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen, Oman, the UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait.

Although everyone shares a common Islamic faith background, Iran, as a Shia-dominated country, has pursued expansionist policies and has a long-standing confrontation with the Western world, leading these nominally brotherly countries to actually view it more as an opponent or even an enemy, rather than a close ally.

In addition, the differences in ethnic composition are also a significant barrier. The main ethnic group in Iran is Persians, which is fundamentally different from the surrounding Muslim countries primarily composed of Arabs or Turks. As the saying goes, "people not of my race must have different hearts," and this ethnic difference naturally affects mutual trust.

A deeper geopolitical reason is that, among these 11 countries, the United States has established military bases and stationed troops in 7 of them: Turkey, Oman, the UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait. In such a severe situation, if Iran wants to seek help from its neighbors, it is truly a difficult task.

As the year 2025 comes to a close, Warren Buffett officially ends his more than half a century-long tenure as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway. Since taking the helm in 1970, he has worked in this position for a full 55 years.

Looking back at the glorious journey from the end of 1980 to the end of 2025, the company's stock price has achieved an astonishing leap, soaring from $425 to $754,800, with a cumulative growth of up to 1,776 times. During this period, Buffett achieved an average annual return of 18%, far exceeding the 11% of the S&P 500 index during the same period.

Indeed, in the later years of his investment career, his performance has declined compared to its peak. Data shows that in the last twenty years of his career, his annualized return was 11.4%, slightly higher than the 11.1% of the S&P 500 index. In the last ten years before his retirement, he achieved a 14.5% annualized return, a figure that even fell short of the 15% of the S&P 500 index.

Nevertheless, this in no way diminishes the brilliance of his legendary life. As one of the greatest investors in human history, his status is unshakeable. The value investment philosophy he advocated has profoundly inspired countless individuals, including myself.

Today, I want to sincerely say to this 95-year-old investment master: Thank you. The spirit of the stock god is immortal, but his figure is gradually fading.

Farewell to the Buffett Era: The Last Chapter of a Legendary Investment Career

As the curtain slowly falls on the year 2025, Warren Buffett officially resigns from his position as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway. This moment marks the end of a historical chapter, after all, he has been at the helm of this commercial giant for 55 years since 1970.

Looking back at this magnificent 45 years from the end of 1980 to the end of 2025, Berkshire Hathaway's stock price has created a miracle in business history, soaring from $425 to $754,800, with a staggering cumulative increase of 1,776 times. During this period, Buffett achieved an average annualized return of 18%, a figure that dwarfs the 11% performance of the S&P 500 during the same time.

Indeed, in the final stage of his leadership, investment returns have receded compared to their peak. Data shows that in the last twenty years of his career, his annualized return was 11.4%, just slightly above the S&P 500's 11.0%. In his last ten years of investment, an annualized return of 14.5% even lagged behind the S&P 500's 15% during the same period.

But this does not diminish his brilliance as a legendary figure. Recognized as one of the greatest investors in human history, his status is unshakeable. The value investment philosophy he advocates has long transcended money itself, profoundly influencing generation after generation, including myself, who has been deeply inspired by him.

At this moment, I would like to extend my sincerest respect to this 95-year-old titan of the investment world: Thank you, Mr. Buffett. As the famous saying goes, old soldiers never die; they just fade away, and the same goes for the stock god, but the spiritual wealth he leaves behind will endure forever.