加勒密船长

If Russell Napier is right - we are really moving towards national capitalism, and capital will flow back on a large scale to real investments - then why does the liquidity in the crypto market now resemble the Sahara Desert? Shouldn't it be the opposite? I'll first put Napier's two sentences in front of me as a motto:
1. "We are moving towards a national capitalism system."
2. "We will see a large-scale return of capital investment."
Russell Napier is one of the contemporary economists who emphasizes financial history the most. He has long studied the monetary and credit cycles in high debt environments, focusing on two widely cited reports: (We are moving towards a national capitalism system) and (We will see a large-scale return of capital investment).

Recently, meme coins have gained popularity again, from the abstract carnival of Solana to the hot rotation of BSC, with controversies never ceasing: some criticize it as air, a game of passing the parcel, pure gambling; others say it tarnishes the 'technical ideal' of blockchain. But you cannot deny—during the dullness of a bear market, when technical narratives become numbing, meme coins burst forth like a suddenly exploded colorful candy, tearing open the obscure and complex world of crypto, spilling in absurdity, satire, and pure joy. It doesn't need a white paper; it just needs you to laugh, FOMO, and shout 'to the moon.' It brings crypto back from serious experimentation to the internet carnival, allowing ordinary people to truly participate—not as investors, but as players and accomplices. Meme is not a bug; it is a feature—so long as humanity still seeks fun in the darkness, it will never die.

In the past three months, the price of Bitcoin has experienced significant volatility, drawing widespread attention from analysts and investors. The proposed changes to the MSCI index coincide with Morgan Stanley's ETF application timeline, sparking heated discussions about the impact of institutional investors on the cryptocurrency market. These events not only affect short-term price trends but also set potential precedents for future cryptocurrency ETFs and investment strategies.
MSCI announcement triggers October plunge
On October 10, MSCI proposed to exclude companies with large Bitcoin reserves, such as MicroStrategy and Metaplanet, from its global index. This news caused the price of Bitcoin to plummet nearly $18,000 within minutes, with the entire cryptocurrency market's value evaporating by over $900 billion. The MSCI index guides trillions of dollars in passive investment funds, meaning that funds and pension plans linked to the index may be forced to sell crypto-related assets. The event immediately triggered downward pressure and had a ripple effect on both institutional and retail investors. Observers noted that the sudden shift in major index policy could further affect the derivatives market and futures trading.

Today is January 7th, and global financial markets continue to fluctuate under the impact of the Trump administration's geopolitical moves. President Trump announced that Venezuela will transfer a large amount of crude oil to the United States, further lowering supply expectations and pushing Brent crude down to around $60 per barrel and WTI crude to about $56 per barrel, with losses widening.
This alleviates concerns over global energy shortages, but also intensifies pressure on the energy sector. Nevertheless, Wall Street remains strong, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average recently breaking above the 49,000 mark, setting a new record, driven by financial and technology stocks.

As the new year begins, global markets have opened a new chapter amid multiple intertwined events. The Venezuela oil revival plan led by Trump, the geopolitical turmoil triggered by Maduro's arrest, the accelerated capital outflow by Japanese investors, and the strong rebound of the Bitcoin ecosystem have collectively shaped the economic landscape at the start of the year. Political uncertainty amplifies demand for safe-haven assets, driving prices of digital assets like Bitcoin to rebound, while the reconstruction of oil infrastructure faces a long test.
Venezuela Crisis: A Distant Vision of Oil Revival and Geopolitical Risks

The short holiday has finally come to an end. Although holidays are supposed to be a time for rest and recovery, many people, including the author, return to work feeling more fatigued than when the holiday started. On one hand, entering the holiday with a 'sleep debt' accumulated from long-term work means that once the pace of life slows down, the body will take the opportunity to demand rest. On the other hand, a sudden change in routine can disrupt the biological clock and affect sleep structure. It seems necessary to adapt to the state of Workation (work travel), balancing work and travel, which can enhance happiness while providing more inspiration for work.

Today is December 29, Monday. Bitcoin suddenly rebounded, with an intraday increase of over 2%, once breaking through the $90,000 mark, and the current trading price is about $89,600. This wave of increase was accompanied by short liquidations exceeding $25 million, with the total cryptocurrency market liquidation amount reaching $160 million, mainly driven by short sellers' liquidations. Analysts attribute this to both retail investors and whales buying in simultaneously, especially as exchanges show strong buying signals. After derivative positions were adjusted, financing rates rose, and implied volatility decreased. While market fragility remains, bulls are quietly pushing prices higher. 10x Research pointed out that despite low trading volume, changes in the options market indicate a potential significant shift, paving the way for a 'Santa Claus rally.' Other cryptocurrencies rose in tandem: Ethereum (ETH) broke through $3,000, increasing by over 3%; Binance Coin (BNB), Ripple (XRP), and Solana (SOL) and other altcoins also followed the rebound, bringing the total market capitalization back above $3 trillion.

Yesterday, the world's largest asset management company BlackRock transferred 1,044 bitcoins (worth approximately $91.9 million) and 7,557 ethers (worth approximately $22.4 million) to the Coinbase platform, with a total value exceeding $114.3 million. According to on-chain data monitoring from Onchain Lens and Arkham Intelligence, this is not a singular event but part of a series of operations by BlackRock at the end of the year, including a previous transfer of 2,292 bitcoins and 9,976 ethers on December 24. These actions are viewed as part of their Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) and Ethereum ETF (ETHA) rebalancing or liquidity management strategy.

Today is December 26, 2025 (Boxing Day), and the Bitcoin market will witness the largest options expiration event in cryptocurrency history. The Deribit platform has a total notional value of about $27 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiring, with Bitcoin options reaching up to $23.6 billion, accounting for over 50% of the platform's open contracts. This 'Boxing Day big expiration' unfolds against a backdrop of extremely thin holiday liquidity, with market volatility being put to the test.
Despite the dominance of call options in the market (put-call ratio around 0.38), the maximum pain point is located around $95,000-96,000, but the Bitcoin price shows remarkable resilience, currently trading back above $89,000.

On December 24, today is Christmas Eve. So far, the crypto market has not welcomed the Christmas miracle. To summarize, Bitcoin's decline this quarter has exceeded 22%, marking the worst quarterly performance since 2018. After peaking at $126,000 in October, BTC has faced continuous selling pressure, currently down about 30% from its historical high and even below the level at the beginning of the year.
Current market: increased volatility, selling pressure is easing
At the end of the year, liquidity is thin, tax-loss selling and macro uncertainty amplify volatility. Bitcoin struggles to hold above $90,000, with short-term support at $84,000-$85,000 and resistance at $93,000-$94,000.

Today is December 23rd, and Bitcoin prices are hovering around $88,000, despite a brief rebound to over $90,000 yesterday. However, this surge seems more like a 'bull trap', aimed at attracting retail investors to chase higher prices, accumulating liquidity for a subsequent larger downturn.
Some analysts in the market also indicate that Bitcoin's structure is bullish in the short term, mainly due to thin downward liquidity and solid support levels, making it difficult for market makers to push for a significant drop immediately. This has led to a temporary price rebound. However, the medium to long-term outlook remains pessimistic, with Bitcoin expected to further dip into the $64,000-$70,000 range, possibly reaching it in the first or second quarter of 2026. This level is viewed as an initial major target rather than the final bottom.

On December 19, the Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, the highest level since 1995. The market was expected to see a strong rebound of the yen, but the result was completely opposite: the yen not only failed to appreciate but also accelerated its collapse. On Monday, the dollar rose to 157.67 against the yen, the euro reached 184.90 against the yen, and the Swiss franc approached 198.08 against the yen, all hitting historic lows. Authorities have issued strong intervention signals. Deputy Finance Minister Atsushi Miura warned that exchange rate fluctuations are 'one-sided and severe,' and Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki stated that Tokyo would respond appropriately to 'excessive speculative fluctuations.' The market generally believes that once the dollar approaches 160 against the yen, Japan will intervene again—similar to selling about $100 billion to support the yen at similar levels in the summer of 2024.

As 2025 draws to a close, historical experience suggests that the last quarter is typically a constructive phase for the cryptocurrency market, with December often marking the beginning of a new upward momentum. In previous cycles, Bitcoin prices would use this time to break out of long-term consolidation and reverse downward trends; however, this year's seasonal pattern seems to have failed. Despite multiple attempts by bulls, a decisive breakthrough has remained elusive, leading to a continued narrowing of market volatility, and traders are cautious about future trends. Given the unclear movements of Bitcoin and altcoins, external factors may play a catalytic role in the coming days.

Today is December 19, 2025, and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has unanimously decided to raise the policy interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 0.75%, marking a nearly 30-year high. This signifies Japan's gradual end to the ultra-loose monetary era. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized that this move stems from increased confidence in the economic outlook and the sustainability of inflation and wage growth.
Although the actual interest rate remains significantly negative, the accommodative environment will continue to support activity. However, the central bank has clearly hinted that if the economy is strong, there may be further interest rate hikes in 2026, with the terminal rate potentially reaching 1%. For years, the attractiveness of yen carry trades (borrowing cheap yen to invest in high-return assets) has sharply decreased, which may reduce the inflow of funds into risk assets. After the decision, the yield on 10-year government bonds broke 2% (the first time since 2006), and the yen exchange rate stabilized around 156 after a brief fluctuation. The Japanese stock market (such as the Nikkei 225) performed steadily.

The intense fluctuations of Bitcoin last night caught the market off guard, with BTC rapidly surging to about 90,500 USD and then sharply falling back to 85,200 USD. From high to low, the drop exceeded 5%, approximately 5,000 USD. This is not news-driven; it is structurally driven due to weak trading volume, oversupply at known cost levels, and tight liquidity. Before these structural changes, such drastic movements remain a part of the crypto market reality.
Affected by the global stock market's risk-averse sentiment, particularly the heightened concerns over the valuations of AI-related tech stocks and the rising expectations of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, Bitcoin and other crypto assets are facing multiple downward pressures. The slowdown in ETF inflows and the weak market structure further undermined price support.

The recent cryptocurrency market has been sluggish, with overall market morale low. Despite significant progress in the cryptocurrency market over the past two years, including a substantial increase in institutional participation through regulated products, an improving regulatory environment, and a political shift towards supporting digital assets, Bitcoin's recent performance is concerning. After hitting an all-time high of about $126,000 in October, it has significantly retreated and is currently hovering around $86,000. This weakening, occurring in an environment lacking obvious negative catalysts, is much harder to interpret than the sharp crashes seen in previous bear markets— the market seems less sensitive to positive signals, and even those positive signals are extremely short-term and cannot be sustained.

The cryptocurrency market began to see a significant decline yesterday, with Bitcoin falling below $86,000, and Ethereum and other major coins also dropping. Overall, this decline lacks a clear specific catalyst and mainly occurred in sync with the opening of the U.S. stock market—declines in the stock market dragged down the overall performance of risk assets. The S&P 500 index fell slightly by 0.16%, the Nasdaq index dropped by 0.59%, and the Dow Jones index decreased by 0.09%.
As the end of the year approaches, liquidity continues to weaken, often amplifying market volatility, especially during U.S. trading hours. Risk-averse sentiment spreads rapidly, macro uncertainty resurfaces, and combined with insufficient liquidity, every slight decline can easily evolve into a larger slide. The Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut last week had almost no positive impact on the market, and as leverage decreases and year-end funds are depleted, selling pressure intensifies.