LIVE盒子炒币
@ahuang
纯韭菜，爆仓无数次！
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Why are so few people making money in the bull market?
Let’s think about this question: If I go back a few years ago and know that eth will increase more than 40 times in the next few years, how can I maximize my income?
I think most people's first thought is to go long with contracts and leverage.
How much leverage should you add? How many positions should be taken?
If your position is greater than 50%, there is a high probability that the position will be liquidated midway. In the end, you may make money, but it may not be as much as the stud spot.
At that time, many people expected that Luna would return to 0, so they went short with high leverage. In the end, they were busted by the banker first, and then watched Luna return to 0, without making any profit.
I think most people's first thought is to go long with contracts and leverage.
How much leverage should you add? How many positions should be taken?
If your position is greater than 50%, there is a high probability that the position will be liquidated midway. In the end, you may make money, but it may not be as much as the stud spot.
At that time, many people expected that Luna would return to 0, so they went short with high leverage. In the end, they were busted by the banker first, and then watched Luna return to 0, without making any profit.
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Under the influence of investment masters such as Graham and Buffett, people generally agree with the principle of "value investing" and tend to use the discounted cash flow method to evaluate the value of assets and look for assets with a margin of safety and that are undervalued.
However, in the crypto space, this valuation method clearly does not apply. Philosophical thinking about the market value, demand and value of cryptocurrencies cannot be limited simply to the definition of "cash income".
In this regard, for memes, we need to combine narrative and numbers to build a complete valuation structure.
When estimating the value of a meme, we can use the following formula: Meme Valuation = Narrative + Number.
For memes, narrative is the product, culture is the product, and community is the product. The "narrative" in the formula refers to the meme product itself, while the "number" is a difficult-to-calculate metric that includes multiple biasing factors. Although it is difficult for us to accurately calculate the chemical reactions of these deviation factors using mathematical models, when we cannot measure any data, we can open up the imagination.
Specifically, the valuation of a meme can be synthesized from the following multiple factors: the size of the narrative (the size of the impact on the market), the frequency of emotional arousal, celebrity effect (KOL recognition and ability to bring goods), SOV (media proportion) share) and so on. These factors work together to form the comprehensive valuation of the meme.
Of course, for these deviation factors, we can currently only pursue fuzzy accuracy, and it is difficult to accurately calculate the chemical reactions using mathematical models. However, even if we are faced with immeasurable data, we can still use our rich imagination to do our best to assess the value of memes.
Therefore, for memes, valuation is not just a simple discounted cash flow calculation process, but a complex valuation model that integrates narrative and numbers.
#Memes #PEPE
However, in the crypto space, this valuation method clearly does not apply. Philosophical thinking about the market value, demand and value of cryptocurrencies cannot be limited simply to the definition of "cash income".
In this regard, for memes, we need to combine narrative and numbers to build a complete valuation structure.
When estimating the value of a meme, we can use the following formula: Meme Valuation = Narrative + Number.
For memes, narrative is the product, culture is the product, and community is the product. The "narrative" in the formula refers to the meme product itself, while the "number" is a difficult-to-calculate metric that includes multiple biasing factors. Although it is difficult for us to accurately calculate the chemical reactions of these deviation factors using mathematical models, when we cannot measure any data, we can open up the imagination.
Specifically, the valuation of a meme can be synthesized from the following multiple factors: the size of the narrative (the size of the impact on the market), the frequency of emotional arousal, celebrity effect (KOL recognition and ability to bring goods), SOV (media proportion) share) and so on. These factors work together to form the comprehensive valuation of the meme.
Of course, for these deviation factors, we can currently only pursue fuzzy accuracy, and it is difficult to accurately calculate the chemical reactions using mathematical models. However, even if we are faced with immeasurable data, we can still use our rich imagination to do our best to assess the value of memes.
Therefore, for memes, valuation is not just a simple discounted cash flow calculation process, but a complex valuation model that integrates narrative and numbers.
#Memes #PEPE
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1. The correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. stocks will continue to increase after the adoption of spot ETFs, following the bull market trend of U.S. stocks.
2. Bitcoin has lasted for more than 400 days since the bottom of the last bear market. It is expected that this bull market will last at least until the first quarter of 2025.
3. The current price of BTC is definitely not the top of this bull market. #BTC
2. Bitcoin has lasted for more than 400 days since the bottom of the last bear market. It is expected that this bull market will last at least until the first quarter of 2025.
3. The current price of BTC is definitely not the top of this bull market. #BTC
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The Fed meeting is today, ,
At the moment, the expectations are as follows:
⚫ ~64% - the rate will be reduced by 0.50%.
⚫ ~36% — the rate will be reduced by 0.25%.
Unexpectedly, the market expects a 0.50% decline, which is not fully priced in. Therefore, such a move by the Fed could trigger a short-term rise in the market. But 0.25%, given market expectations, could, on the contrary, lead to a short-term decline.
At the same time, former head of BitMEX Arthur Hayes said from the stage of Token2049 that the Fed will collapse the market by lowering the key interest rate.
What are your expectations?
The rate will be reduced by 0.25% —🔥
The rate will be reduced by 0.50% — 👍
Pause / raise —😱
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