阿根战记

Now, the decline of Bitcoin relative to US stocks is still fluctuating within a range, and it can be said to be very hard! However, under the collapsed nest, there are no complete eggs. Bitcoin has fallen too much earlier; now it's taking a breather. It was previously mentioned that US stocks are like a dammed lake, hanging above our heads. When the dam breaks, the cryptocurrency market will only suffer more! March is about to end, and looking back at what was said at the beginning of March: March will rise first and then fall, with long upper and lower shadow candlestick patterns. The only thing not expected was that a new low has not yet been reached, but it will inevitably come. We won't have to wait too long for Bitcoin to reach 50,000; it is also the time to build a position.

Trump is manipulating the stock market again! How many people have been double killed by bulls and bears?

Gold has dropped the market value of a cryptocurrency in one day! The question arises: all global assets are declining, where is the money going?

Gold prices plummet, silver prices plummet, European stocks plummet, Asian stocks plummet, just wait for the US stock market to open at 9:30 PM and plummet!
It has been said before that the US stock market oscillates at the top for 6 months, like a dammed lake, and after such a long time of oscillation at the top, the main force has basically sold most of their goods, once the main force is out, it is the time for a crash.
Looking back at history, every time a bubble peaks, Wall Street always finds the Middle East to take over.
1999: The Saudi prince invested billions into the internet, buying up Amazon, AOL, and when the bubble burst, he lost everything.
2007: Abu Dhabi gave Citigroup 7.5 billion, and the next year Lehman collapsed.
2025: Saudi Arabia 36 billion, Abu Dhabi 12.9 billion. Sam Altman personally flew to the Middle East for roadshows, retail investors rushed in following the news, while Wall Street cashed out.
The common people's money is split 30/70, while the gentry's money is returned in full?
80 million dollars in liquidation, large investors in such a market are also fuel, do not think of yourself as an exception, now for Bitcoin and ETH, it is necessary to join the army that doesn't enter the market without a crash.
Now the rebound is an opportunity to sell and short, if someone tells you to go long now, take them down on the spot!

Even gold cannot escape the risk, and it's a continuous decline!
The digital gold, Bitcoin, has already paved the way for a sharp drop!
High interest rates from the Federal Reserve, the US-Iran war, the black swan of oil, and a global liquidity crisis—there are no perfect eggs under the nest!
I mentioned at the end of last year that all the rebounds from now on are opportunities to escape!
So now is the last chance!

U.S. stocks, gold, U.S. bonds, European stocks, global asset flight, it really feels a bit like the 2008 financial crisis, just waiting for a black swan like Lehman Brothers. Bitcoin and ETH are still holding up very strongly, but once the living forces are exhausted, it's like a complete defeat.

Is the current world brewing a crisis like that of 2008?
In early 2008, before the financial crisis erupted, precious metals represented by gold and silver rose by 30% in the first phase, non-ferrous metals like aluminum, copper, and nickel rose by 40% in the second phase, energy sources such as crude oil and natural gas rose by 50% in the third phase, and core agricultural products like soybeans, corn, and wheat rose by 100% in the fourth phase;

Then in July 2008, marked by Lehman's bankruptcy, liquidity dried up, and commodities collectively collapsed, in the order of decline: crude oil → industrial metals → agricultural products → gold (after a brief safe-haven rise, it fell back).

The U.S. stock market fell by more than 40% in six months, and at that time there was no cryptocurrency market, but we know that it was this crisis that gave birth to Bitcoin!

Compared to history, it seems like the current situation is replaying the script; perhaps it just needs a black swan event similar to Lehman's bankruptcy to trigger a global market crash, at which point the cryptocurrency market will face a true life-and-death crisis, and of course, it will also be a real golden pit!

I will find time to write about this theme in detail over the weekend!

The mountain rain is about to come, the wind is full of the building. Now the US stocks are falling, US bonds are falling, and gold and silver are also falling!
A global asset stampede, it's hard for the cryptocurrency circle to remain unaffected. Perhaps by the end of this month, we will see Bitcoin starting with 5.

At 2 a.m. today, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision was announced, but now it has already started to decline, with Bitcoin and $ETH falling back into the upper range of the volatility zone for more than a month.
So, has this wave of rebound ended? Clearly, it has!
The Federal Reserve's meeting this time is almost certain to remain unchanged, which is a real negative factor because the interest rates are too high now. The main point of focus is how Powell will speak at 2:30?
In fact, this continuous rebound is mainly because it has fallen too much, with five consecutive monthly declines, and there are too many short sellers, resulting in shorts being significantly higher than longs during the previous period, which is very abnormal. Normally, there are always more long positions in this market!
Therefore, this rise is obviously aimed at forcing shorts to cover, with consecutive small bullish candles on the daily chart, and finally a volume spike before falling back.
The fundamentals of the market have not improved; it still lacks liquidity, and there is also the black swan of the US-Iran war, so the bulls cannot be complacent now. Looking at the long term, 60,000 is not the bottom for Bitcoin, and breaking below 60,000 is currently just a matter of time.
The current position of Bitcoin is very similar to the decline consolidation from mid-November to mid-January, so the next month may be the time when Bitcoin breaks 60,000.

Bitcoin has fallen for four consecutive days and then risen for four consecutive days, outperforming the recent US stock market. However, oil prices are soaring, and the dollar index has broken 100 again. The overall environment does not seem good!
Is the current rise the final lure or a real reversal?

Brother Ma Ji is back again to open more $ETH , the clearing price is 1960 USD, is this wave of rebound about to end? 😂

Brent crude oil prices surged to $119, a jump of 25%, while US stocks and bonds opened lower, and stock markets in Japan, South Korea, and Europe also show signs of collapse!
This is a typical "inflation panic + geopolitical risk" repricing, and historically, such a double kill of stocks and bonds has led to a sharp decline in Bitcoin (as shown in the chart 3).
In the three double kills of 2018, 2020, and 2022, Bitcoin fell by at least 50%!
The price range of Brent crude oil serves as a "thermometer" for the global economy and financial markets (as shown in the chart 4); the current spike to $119 indicates a supply crisis and runaway inflation.
One could say that the current rebound is a short squeeze and baiting before the US stock market opens, as well as a weekly upper shadow line conversion. With the CPI on Wednesday, PCE on Friday, and next week's Federal Reserve interest rate decision, $74,000 may be the peak of this rebound, and in March we might see $50,000 Bitcoin and $1,400 $ETH !

After the sharp decline of Bitcoin and $ETH yesterday, all previous gains have been wiped out. In the past week, Bitcoin experienced three single-day surges of 5000 points, all of which have now fallen! On the 19th, the Federal Reserve, Europe, and the UK's three major global central banks will all have interest rate decisions. So how will the market move during this voting period?

The non-farm payrolls disappointed, U.S. stocks plummeted, and Bitcoin, along with $ETH , led the cryptocurrency market to a sharp decline, nearly reversing all the gains from the day before yesterday.
In the past week or so, Bitcoin experienced three days of roughly 5000 points of soaring, only to drop back down again. This is a blatant trap to entice buyers and then offload!
The prediction from the article released on March 2 is becoming increasingly likely to come true: Bitcoin and ETH will first rebound slightly, then continue to fall, touching the lower Bollinger Band of the monthly line, with Bitcoin around $54,000 and ETH around $1,350;

Why did the non-farm payroll data disappoint, and why did Bitcoin and ETH instead lead the cryptocurrency market into a faster decline?
The disappointing non-farm payroll data shouldn't have been favorable for interest rate cuts, right? This is definitely a favorable indicator, yet it has accelerated the decline.
Because in the current complex environment of 'economic cooling + sticky inflation + geopolitical conflicts,' this non-farm data's impact on the market is not simply a 'positive for interest rate cuts,' but has triggered deeper concerns, especially the fear of recession overwhelming the expectations for interest rate cuts.
Market worries about a 'hard landing' for the U.S. economy have sharply intensified. Investors first think of 'the economy is failing,' rather than 'the Federal Reserve is going to cut rates.' In this panic atmosphere, funds will withdraw from the high-risk cryptocurrency market.
This is the main reason for the decline, and now we will see how the U.S. stock market performs. However, in the short term, panic emotions are dominant, and any potential bad news is interpreted as negative. In this situation, what was originally stated in the article about 3月还有一次暴跌吗？, the trend in March may come true: the monthly line pattern shows a short upper shadow and a long lower shadow, meaning that Bitcoin and ETH will first rebound slightly and then continue to decline, touching the lower Bollinger Band of the monthly line, with Bitcoin around $54,000 and ETH around $1,350;
Currently, it has completed the upper shadow mentioned above, and there will be a lower shadow in the future.

The US stock market has collapsed, and Bitcoin along with $ETH has also experienced a pullback. The $70,000 for Bitcoin and $2,000 for ETH are the dividing lines; if they fall below, then this wave of increase is just a trap!
The US stock market is currently forming a rounded top on the weekly chart. It was previously mentioned that the US stock market resembles a dammed lake, oscillating at the top. Bitcoin has plummeted significantly, and if the US stock market starts a monthly-level correction, then Bitcoin will not just start with 5!
Currently, the war between the US, Israel, and Iran may produce a black swan event. Tomorrow night, the non-farm payroll data will be released, and on the 19th, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be a time for a major drop?

After yesterday's surge, Bitcoin has reached the resistance level of $74,000 and is currently fluctuating at a high position!
Come and vote, do you think this rise marks the beginning of a reversal into a bull market? Or is it a dead cat bounce, a last gasp before a significant drop?

Brother Majie, this is so one-sided, the soldiers feel a chill down their backs!

$POWER dropped 90% in one day, and there are still so-called KOLs shouting to buy the dip!
It's a bear market now! It's a bear market now! It's a bear market now!
Important things need to be said three times: in a bear market, most altcoins will go to zero. Buying the dip is a strategy for a bull market. A 90% drop indicates that the main players have fled; what are you still playing for? Do you think you are an A11 user, acting like a whale?
In a bear market, 90% of altcoins have no bottom; if you want to buy the dip, there will be endless dips until they go to zero!
Now, just buy some major mainstream coins like Bitcoin $ETH and $BNB . If you are really itching to trade, you can go to the futures market and chase Bitcoin's ups and downs; it's still better than buying the dip on altcoins that will go to zero. You won't even hear the sound of splashing water.

Now not only has the South Korean stock market collapsed, but the European stock market is also about to collapse!\nBitcoin and $ETH have also dropped, almost erasing yesterday's gains!\nNow the data from the two most unfavorable markets, the US dollar index and Brent crude oil, are rising sharply!\nJust waiting for the US stock market to open at 10:30 PM, which will completely bring down the cryptocurrency market!\nIt has long been said that Trump's killing of Soleimani is extremely foolish, equivalent to killing Song Jiang who was ready to surrender, and now Wu Song, Lu Zhishen, and Li Kui have come up!