阿佛的财经指南

Time flies! The 45-day one-sided uptrend has come to an end. On April 8th, I wrote a detailed piece suggesting a big short around the 80K mark (prior low long strategy before 80K). Now, it's been validated. Looking ahead, I expect high short strategies until the end of July, likely from late May. The market has two groups—one went crazy short in April, and now they're all going wild long. I'm usually opposite to the mainstream market sentiment, and my win rate has been pretty solid. I haven't made any major mistakes in terms of trends and cycles.

Currently, BTC has broken down on the daily chart, and the downtrend is quite evident. I anticipate a major rebound around 76K; my big short outlook remains unchanged. The US stock market is now too high to lift crypto. Talks about Uncle Chuan's visit to China have nothing to do with crypto (I've been bearish recently), and people are still fixated on the Iran situation, which are all lagging trading thoughts. I remember writing an article in March asking why the US wants to strike Iran? Now, with the US stock market rallying for 40 days, these factors combined, take a look back at my previous article. Many think we're just drawing lines... Who said those who draw charts don't consider macroeconomics?

So why am I bearish? I've shared some thoughts before—potential interest rate hikes in Japan in June, the World Cup in July with Canada and Mexico, and potential stock market corrections are all factors to consider. Coupled with the chart, volume, and candlestick structure, it's all pointing bearish. At the end of April, I mentioned not seeing BTC above 83K, which still holds true, determined by volume and gaps.

Now, let's talk about ETH and SOL. These two are really on opposite ends; SOL is catching up, while ETH isn't. ETH at 2600 corresponds to BTC at 81K, but I've mentioned in my livestream that ETH not catching up is a concern. In a bear market, ETH behaves like this—why should it necessarily catch up?

ETH capped at 2480, SOL capped at 98, which aligns with bear market characteristics. There's still downward space for ETH, and I expect it to consolidate around 2150 before a potential upward move. We'll see about the timing.

I’m Afo, a professional trader.
Feel free to like, comment, share, and do the triple click.

The first image is of my rehearsal on April 8 for the annual upgrade of BTC to a higher wave five. At that time, the BTC price was 74,500 (we also precisely bottomed BTC and ETH at the 74,500 position). Currently, BTC resembles the price movement of gold over the past 30 years (image four). Bitcoin is now digital gold, requiring no physical transportation, and can resist inflation (there are only 21 million in total). Currently, 80% of Bitcoin is in the hands of Americans. In every stage of dividends, the U.S. always manages to seize the initiative, which is impressive.

The second image is of my rehearsal at the end of May for the future trend above 100K for BTC. It can be seen that the 1.618 position above is a coin price of 245,000. Our first target is 180,000, and for long positions at lower levels over the next year, we will only buy and not sell. The second target is around 220,000, and at this position, we will also only reduce our positions and wait for a correction to add more. Based on the current market and institutional actions, BTC is not likely to have more than a 30% major correction before it surpasses 200,000. So if you missed BTC at 74,500, then those who got in around 100,600, as I mentioned a few days ago, can basically hold for a long time. Many people have been waiting for a correction and the longer they wait, the higher it gets. The best strategy here is to dollar-cost average at the current price, synchronizing with ETH and SOL, keeping 70% of the position for mainstream coins and 30% for some altcoins. Manage your positions well, hold steady in a bull market, and basically by the first quarter of next year, you can sell all the altcoins and switch to BTC. This is a good strategy.

By the way, for everyone concerned about ETH, I previously shared the ETH price chart. There are two major anticipated events for ETH: first, the ETH ETF staking application is expected to be approved by the SEC in the next 60 days; second, the on-chain gold dog wlfi will also play a role when it arrives.

Basically, when BTC reaches 150,000, ETH should move to around 4,600, so ETH is still at a low position, just like BTC, it's better to hold long positions. SOL is also better for long-term holding.

I am Afo, a professional trader.
Feel free to comment, like, and share. One-click triple connection.
$ETH

Another stormy night, US stocks are booming, but crypto is still lagging behind like a badly behaved child. Recently, both crypto and gold have been on a retracement path, and US bond yields are nearing 5%, which is essentially draining global assets. Crypto, especially, is in a tough spot. Just a few days ago, I shared the chart below illustrating that after filling the gap at BTC 78,000 last night, we saw a sharp downturn. It presented a great shorting opportunity, and I'm fully loaded on my short positions, continuing to look bearish.

In this segment, BTC moved from 75,000 to 82,800, which clearly shows a distribution structure. Our last medium-term long was around 76,500 to 81,000. After BTC hit 81,000 and ETH hovered around 2,400, we basically switched to a high short strategy (with a small amount of long positions added in). Why is shorting so appealing?

Because it's a trend-following play; going long at this stage is counter-trend. Following the trend makes it much easier. The movement has been clear: up and then down. The trend is very evident. ETH is quite erratic, with sharp movements, so the entry points need to be a bit wider, and we shouldn't really worry about getting stopped out. Trend is priority number one. ETH is underperforming significantly; if BTC drops back to around 60,000, ETH will definitely break new lows.

BTC has resistance at 76,800 for the day, ETH at 2,090, with SOL following suit. Given this, the market has already weakened. Last night's BTC at 78,000 was a clear squeeze; don’t try to catch a bottom, don’t try to catch a bottom, because there’s no support at BTC 72,000. I expect BTC to hover around 72,000 before we can see it drop to around 67,000.

BTC target around 78400 is close, let's get ready to make our move,
high short strategy, the waves are still rolling.

BTC facing a weekly resistance at 78600, adjusting short positions again. Expecting a bounce back for BTC around 76000 to near 78400. For ETH, anticipating a gap fill around 2200. At this level, looking to go long again. Targets for BTC remain at 72000, 68000, 65000, and 6W. ETH targets remain unchanged at 1950, 1800, and 1600.

Let's talk about the market. The morning live stream replay got taken down due to complaints, so no more trolling in the square going forward. Mainly, yesterday that @Plane1031 went too far; back on April 5th last year, I called the bottom and he mocked me for calling a bull run, then yesterday he mocked me again for saying to cash out on ETH at the end of July last year. What a der! BTC/ETH right now is being pulled back to 77400 thanks to Grandpa Chuan's manual line drawing signal from last night. There's a clear daily resistance here, with ETH at 2150 also showing significant resistance. We're still holding onto our big short from last week. Our first target yesterday was around 72000, and we expect some sideways movement and a rebound here. Look, Old Te's signals have pulled it back up again. The strategy adjustment is as I mentioned in the morning live stream: the defense level is set at 78000. Never try to catch a falling knife in this market. For shorts, I suggest watching around 77500. If you’re risk-averse, it’s better to hold off on adding to your position for now; let’s reassess on Monday. It's fine to take smaller profits, but let's avoid losses as much as possible. For those who chased shorts last night, consider setting some stop losses, reducing your position size, and maybe cashing out near your cost price to observe.

My long-term target for BTC is around 65-6W for shorts, and for ETH, the target is around 1600. Short term targets are BTC at 72000 and ETH at 1950. We’ll adjust longs and shorts at that time, and maybe catch some rebounds then. Let's keep an eye on it.

The pump happened overnight, time to get to work.

Found that clown from last year, the one who bought at 1031.
While mocking others for bottom fishing, they ended up chasing the highs themselves, calling others out for missing the wave.

Here comes another noob, there have been quite a few trolls lately,
where did this guy even pop up from?

How are the friends who were shouting 'bull run' a while back?
Can't you see such a textbook Wyckoff distribution structure?

Winter's here, but spring is just around the corner. According to chart ①, the rebound is 🈳.
It's been over $BTC $ETH 3 months with a win rate hovering around 80%. Long from 68000 to 81000, then 🈳 it goes down to 📉 target 65K for observation, waiting for spring.

Is anyone still keeping an eye on the Iran 🇮🇷 situation? What should we say about it?

The crypto winter is coming, and it’s time to stack up on shorts. A couple of days ago, I loaded up on some shorts at 78000, waiting for the gap at 78400 to add more shorts, but it looks like it’s going to be tough to get back up there. Tonight, the new Fed Chair Kevin Walsh is speaking, and he’s got a hawkish stance 🦅, opposing QE and advocating for both balance sheet reduction and rate cuts. It all depends on his rhetoric; if rate cuts come first, it could be bullish for crypto, but if balance sheet reduction comes first, that would be a huge bearish signal. Recently, foreign media has been hyping up the idea of the Fed raising rates in 2026. No matter what Walsh says tonight, it’s likely to have limited impact on the downward trend of the market.

The U.S. is currently caught in a dilemma between rate cuts and inflation. If they cut rates, inflation will be hard to control; if they don’t cut rates, the $39 trillion in U.S. debt will accumulate high interest. With Walsh in charge, it’s going to be tough to turn things around in the short term.

What's up with ETH today? Whose fault is this mess?
I'm a born bull, and I've been totally flipped...

I've been super busy these past couple of days, hopping on flights✈️ + high-speed trains🚅. This post was supposed to be updated yesterday (signal was weak on the train), but last night in the live stream, we took profits on long positions around 78000, and added back to our shorts (the community members have all caught up). So let’s talk about the current market situation. Since Bitcoin dropped from 82000, I've noticed a lot of folks still holding onto hope, thinking it can bounce back to 84000 and even eyeing 90K. Right now, we're looking at a bearish setup on the daily chart. This market scenario was actually mapped out about two months ago: long at 65000 to fill the gap at 82000, then looking bearish around 82000 down to test the bear bottom at 60K-65000, before kicking off a 🔛 mini bull market. The top potential for this mini bull market is around 130K; any higher, I’m not buying it.

If Bitcoin hits 130K, it won't even be a real bull market; it’ll just be a struggle for survival, with high volatility at these levels. For retail traders, it’s tough to hold on; those who can should check out chart ③ (chart 4 is the empty call from this afternoon). I was bullish back on April 8, 2025, during that bull run (from 74800 to around 120K). If you didn’t make any gains back then, the chances are slim for you moving forward because the next mini bull market will be even tougher.

Why will it be difficult? The move from 68000 to 82000 is a reflection of a stagnant market, lacking liquidity 📈, which makes it hard.

After October 11, 2025, the entire crypto market was severely damaged. On a macro level, there haven’t been any substantial positives. The ETH ETF staking has been in talks for years but hasn’t materialized, which is understandable; the old money on Wall Street clearly doesn’t want it to happen. Plus, there’s the issue of liquidity and trust in cryptocurrencies. Compared to the pullback in the stock market, this crypto movement is pretty weak, from 126K to 60K. Back in April 2025, I anticipated Bitcoin reaching around 130K as the first target, then pulling back to 100K with an ABC retracement, but it just fell apart. Around 110K for BTC, I flipped my stance to a full bearish outlook, calling for shorts from 107000 to 93000, 89000 to 80K, and then 95000 to 72000 (ETH was shorted to around 2050 back then). Now we're looking at longs from 65000 to 82000, and currently eyeing shorts from 82000 down to around 60K. Let’s verify this together.

Now, about ETH: recently, a bunch of people were betting on ETH to catch up. In a bull market, ETH can really pump, but in a bear market, it can truly tank. So what should you do?

After wrapping up, I checked the charts and I'm wiped out. The strategy from last night's stream was pretty solid; I suggested looking for a bounce on the 4-hour timeframe. Now it's just about waiting for a high leverage shorting opportunity.