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[Weekend options market analysis]
This weekend, the cryptocurrency options market traded $550 million, with a premium of $4.4 million, which is a relatively active market on weekends.
The market rose moderately, and the market sentiment is very optimistic. Currently, the prices of BTC and ETH are fluctuating near the recent highs, and more and more traders believe that a breakthrough is imminent.
There are still two weeks left in the election, and Trump's chances of winning are getting higher and higher, which has brought good expectations to the market. After all, Musk, a strong supporter of Trump, is very friendly to cryptocurrencies, and the market is now pricing in Trump's victory.

Essential for Bitcoin investment, preview of this week's major events (10/21-10/27)

This week, the voices of Federal Reserve officials have obviously decreased, and the IMF-World Bank Annual Meeting is also worth knowing, but the market's expectations for the next rate cut are relatively unified, and this information has limited impact on the market.
The election is approaching, and Polymarket currently shows that Trump's approval rating is as high as 60%. According to the current progress, Harris's chances of winning will become smaller and smaller in the next ten days. However, the election is still very uncertain, and the IV of election cycle options is still relatively strong.

🌟
This week's major events:

Monday, October 21

💼
Logan, 2026 FOMC voting member and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, at the 2024 Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) Annual Meeting (21:00)

Tuesday, October 22

💼
Schmid, 2025 FOMC voting member and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, spoke on the economic and monetary policy outlook (05:00)

💼
IMF released the Global Economic Outlook report (21:00)

Wednesday, October 23

🌟
The Bank of Canada released its interest rate decision and monetary policy report (21:45)

💼
ECB President Lagarde spoke on the European economic outlook (22:00)

💼
IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings held

10/24 Thursday

💼
BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks at the "Governors' Meeting" hosted by the IMF (04:00)

💼
Federal Reserve releases Beige Book on economic conditions (02:00)

💼
U.S. initial jobless claims for the week (20:30)

10/25 Friday

💼
U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index final value for October (22:00)

📌
Crypto market outlook:
The crypto market quietly returned to around $70,000 in October. It has failed to hit new highs many times this year. I wonder if this round of the U.S. election will be an opportunity for a breakthrough. Currently, the IV of the main term of Bitcoin is at a medium level, and the IV before and after the election is stable at 55%. This week is a good opportunity to lay out some medium- and long-term bullish positions.

📌
In terms of the crypto interest rate market, the Bitfinex interest rate market has been relatively stable recently, with occasional high-interest orders of 20%. If you encounter a suitable interest rate order, you can actively trade it, especially when there is a market, it is worth paying special attention.

The US election is approaching, and all statistical channels show that Trump is leading in the competition, but the US election still has great uncertainty.
Datalab options data shows that BTC's at-the-money option IV is 57% in the election week, while the at-the-money option IV in the week before the election is only 47%. The market has given a 10% IV difference for the election.
The current term structure also illustrates an implicit market view: the market will not fluctuate too much before the end of the election. Market trading volume also illustrates this point. Even if the rally is good this week, big investors are unwilling to bet on continued gains.

Essential for Bitcoin investment, preview of this week's major events (10/14-10/20)

This week, there are still intensive speeches from Federal Reserve officials, but the market's expectations for the next rate cut are relatively unified, and this information has limited impact on the market.
The election is approaching, and the market needs more election information to make a decision. Currently, polls show that Harris's approval rating is 2%, while Polymarket shows that Trump's approval rating is 10%. Crypto's innovation of the traditional world is still developing.

🌟
This week's major events:

Monday, October 14

💼
2026 FOMC voting member and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari participated in an expert panel discussion (21:00)

Tuesday, October 15

💼
Federal Reserve Board member Waller spoke on the economic outlook (03:00)

💼
2024 FOMC voting member and San Francisco Fed President Daly spoke at an event hosted by the New York University Stern School of Business (23:30)

Wednesday, October 16

💼
Federal Reserve Board member Kugler spoke (01:00)

💼
UK September CPI (14:00)

10/17 Thursday

💼
Eurozone September CPI (17:00)

🌟
ECB announces interest rate decision (20:15)

💼
U.S. initial jobless claims for the week (20:30)

💼
U.S. September retail sales monthly rate (20:30)

💼
ECB President Lagarde holds monetary policy press conference (20:45)

10/18 Friday

💼
2026 FOMC voting member, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari speaks (22:00)

📌
Crypto market outlook:
The crypto market is still volatile in October, and there are no hot spots in major speculative markets. At present, the IV of the main term of Bitcoin is at a medium level, and the IV before and after the election has also declined significantly. It is a good opportunity to lay out some medium- and long-term bullish positions this week.

📌
In terms of the crypto interest rate market, the Bitfinex interest rate market has been relatively stable recently, with occasional high-interest orders of 20%. If you encounter a suitable interest rate order, you can actively trade it, especially when there is a market trend, it is worth paying special attention to.

After yesterday's continuous rise, a large number of large transactions appeared in the crypto options market, with transactions exceeding $1.2 billion in the past 24 hours.
Among them, the transaction volume of Bitcoin put options was the largest, reaching $530 million, accounting for a quarter of the total transaction volume on the day.
Among them, the largest transaction had a nominal face value of $66 million,

🔴
Sell
🔶
BTC-28MAR25-40000-P
📉
x500.00 @ ฿0.0130, IV: 60.50

🟢
Buy
🔶
BTC-27DEC24-40000-P
📉
x500.00 @ ฿0.0042, IV: 67.85
This transaction is a deeply out-of-the-money calendar. The trader received a premium of $300,000 and was bullish, but the trader's intentions could not be guessed too accurately.
Overall, the recent option sellers are still stronger, especially the bearish price is very good.
The cost of buying a put option is lower, but the lower option cost also means that most people in the market are not optimistic about this direction.

[October 11th option delivery data]
18,000 BTC options expired, Put Call Ratio was 0.91, the maximum pain point was $62,000, and the nominal value was $1.1 billion.
212,000 ETH options expired, Put Call Ratio was 0.4, the maximum pain point was $2,450, and the nominal value was $510 million.
Cryptocurrency continued to be weak, and the current $60,000 key point was fiercely contested. ETH was also near the long-term support line of $2,300, and the market may change overnight. The market conditions in the first two weeks of the fourth quarter of this year were not good, and the options market was also relatively sluggish. The current option holdings have fallen to a new low in 23 years. However, the sluggish market also breeds new trading opportunities. Now the BTC par IV on November 8 is only 50%, which is very suitable for low-level opening of some medium- and long-term bullish positions.
This week, bulk bullish transactions have gradually become active, and there is a high probability of market conditions before and after the US election.

The US CPI annual rate for September was 2.4%, slightly higher than expected, but it was already the lowest level this year, and the prices of major investment products did not react much.
With the release of various macro data this week and the end of speeches by many Fed officials, the market currently expects a 25Bp rate cut on November 8th at 82%, and 18% for no rate cut. Almost no traders think there is a possibility of 50Bp.
This week, block trades accounted for a large proportion, and 40% of the cumulative trading volume came from block trades, especially block call option trading. The types and durations of transactions are relatively scattered, and shifting and adjusting positions are the main trading drivers. The market is still mainly on the sidelines.

The HBO documentary "Who is Satoshi Nakamoto" will be released later, and currently leaked footage suggests that Bitcoin core developer Peter Todd is Satoshi Nakamoto.
The crypto market has been relatively dull recently, and investors' attention has been diverted to other investments. BTC has always been known for its high volatility, but the volatility of BTC since October has obviously been exceeded by many investment targets. The main IV in October has approached 40%, and the market's volatility expectations are very low.
But looking back at the market situation in recent years, late October is the starting point of the bull market. This year there will be a U.S. election coupled with a U.S. dollar interest rate cut cycle. It is very cost-effective to buy some medium and long-term bullish stocks now.
$BTC

The U.S. economic data for October was strong, and market expectations for the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting on November 8 have dropped significantly. Currently, based on calculations based on 30-day federal funds futures prices, the market's expected probability of the next 25 Bp interest rate cut is 85%, and the expected probability of no interest rate cut is 15%. This data is significantly lower than last month.
At the same time, the predicted probability of Trump being elected president has increased significantly in recent days, and the balance of the U.S. election on November 5 is tilting towards Trump.
Judging from option data, the market's volatility expectations for October are very low. The average IV for that month has been lower than 45%, and the average IV due to expire on November 8 a week later is 55%.
This shows that most market participants are more cautious about betting on this month's market, and continuing to wait and see is the current mainstream sentiment.


$BTC

[April 5th option delivery data]
18,000 BTC options expired, Put Call Ratio was 0.64, the maximum pain point was $68,000, and the notional value was $1.2 billion.
270,000 ETH options expired, Put Call Ratio was 0.38, the maximum pain point was $3,400, and the notional value was $890 million.
Today is the first weekly delivery after the quarterly delivery. The crypto market was relatively weak this week. The $70,000 game ended with the shorts winning. Selling bullish was the main transaction this week, and the IV of each major term showed a significant decline.
Bitcoin is about to usher in halving, which has certain emotional support. Other currencies have fallen into a short-term bear market. The recent slowdown in ETF inflows has led to a market digestion of the premium brought by ETFs.

After several days of continuous decline, the volatility of BTC has increased sharply again, and all major term IVs have reached their highest levels in the past year.
Market expectations for volatility are even higher than during the record high period. Looking at market data, this is mainly due to the significant increase in the price of short- and medium-term put options.
At present, the option skew indicator Skew has returned from significant skew to a neutral state. The prices of put options and call options under the same conditions have returned to the same level. The FOMO sentiment caused by this year's surge has disappeared. #热门话题

Bitcoin trading activity is now significantly affected by U.S. stock trading hours. Trading activity is less active on weekends and the market is also relatively sluggish.
Today's large transactions are almost all done in spread combinations, with the largest number of sales being bullish spreads, followed by selling bearish spreads. The market sentiment of mainstream currencies has been relatively stable in recent days.
There are only two large transactions of over 20 million US dollars today. One is bullish to more than 70,000, and the other is bearish to less than 65,000. It can be said to be tit for tat.
The current trend is weak, IV is still in a high range, and the profit-loss ratio of selling has begun to increase.

#热门话题

A must-have for Bitcoin investment, take a sneak peek at this week’s major events, and look forward to market trends 🌍 (3/18-3/24) #热门话题

This week is an important macro week, and many major central banks, including the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, will announce interest rate decisions. Although the market generally expected the same, the interest rate results and related central bank statements are still worthy of attention. The U.S. economic data is strong, and the results this time are likely to remain unchanged. The impact of the Nvidia AI Conference on U.S. stocks is even more important. The BTC ETF is completely leading the crypto trend, and despite falling into a correction last week, the bull market fundamentals remain strong.
3/18 Monday *
⚒CME Group launches euro-denominated Bitcoin and Ethereum futures
📗NVIDIA AI Conference GTC
3/19 Tuesday *
💼BoJ announces interest rate decision
💼The Reserve Bank of Australia announces interest rate decision
3/20 Wednesday *
🎯European Central Bank President Lagarde delivers a speech
Thursday 3/21***
💼Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
💼The number of people filing for unemployment benefits in the United States this week
💼BoE interest rate decision
📌 BTC fell into a correction last week, causing the entire market to be relatively weak. BTC Dvol fell back to 75%. At the same time, with the explosion and rapid flameout of Meme, the market sentiment has calmed down, and the market IV may not hit a new high in the short term. The cost of buying options has dropped, and it is still an option with a higher profit-loss ratio than futures.
📌 In terms of the crypto interest rate market, large spot investors are gradually reducing their leverage, and the Greenleaf interest rate market is relatively sluggish. It is recommended to hold orders with previously higher interest rates without moving in the near future.

The rapid fluctuations in the market drove the activity of the options market to the highest level in the past year, with more than 15,000 block trades on that day and a nominal value of more than 1 billion US dollars.
Among them, the largest order was 275 sets of Iron Eagle options, with a single nominal value of US$73.34 million. Observing the composition of the options is likely to be a position adjustment by the option market maker, which can be considered as a short position and exit.
Recently, large investors have liquidated option positions on a large scale, whether they are long to take profits or short to admit losses, which has suppressed the rise of IV.

A must-have for Bitcoin investment, a sneak preview of this week’s major events, and an outlook on market trends
🌍（3/4-3/10）

This week is a big macro week. The U.S. unemployment rate data and some major central bank interest rate decisions are worth noting. The main crypto-related events are that the SEC will apply for a resolution on the Fidelity Ethereum Spot ETF, but the possibility of passing it is extremely small. The market now agrees that impossible.
At present, the spot buyers in the mainstream currency market are still very strong, and they are very expected to reach new highs this week. At the same time, derivatives data became increasingly active last week, and the market leverage level gradually increased. The strong spot bull market has driven market sentiment, and there is a greater expectation of an acceleration in the upward trend.

3/5 Tuesday *

🔎The U.S. SEC will make a decision on Fidelity’s Ethereum spot ETF application

3/6 Wednesday *

💼U.S. ADP employment numbers in February

💼Bank of Canada interest rate decision

Thursday 3/7 **

💼European Central Bank main refinancing rate

💼The number of people filing for unemployment benefits in the United States this week

🗒The Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book of Economic Conditions

3/8 Friday ***

💼U.S. Unemployment Rate in February

💼U.S. non-farm payrolls in February after seasonal adjustment

📌BTC is now in the spot bull market, which is gradually driving the derivatives bull market. The main term option IV of BTC has returned to more than 70%. It has now returned to the high level before the FTX thunderstorm, far exceeding last year's average level. Buying short- and medium-term options is still an option with a higher profit-loss ratio. If you are bullish, you can choose the end of the month, while if you are bearish, you can choose the short-term option of the week.

📌In terms of the crypto interest rate market, the market has recently resumed activity, but the Greenleaf interest rate market is relatively sluggish. It is recommended to hold orders with previously higher interest rates unchanged in the near future.

[Option delivery data on March 1st]
19,000 BTC options are about to expire, the Put Call Ratio is 1.49, the biggest pain point is US$55,000, and the nominal value is US$2 billion.
110,000 ETH options are about to expire, the Put Call Ratio is 0.88, the biggest pain point is US$3,000, and the nominal value is US$790 million.
The crypto market was booming this week, with Bitcoin once exceeding $64,000, multiple fiat currencies hitting record highs, and major term IVs all showing a clear upward trend, the same as in January this year and March last year.
U.S. funds have driven the spot bull market, which has seen an astonishing rise this week. However, options trading volume and open interest have not increased much. Recently, buyers have been more focused on spot protection. Real capital inflows have made the market structure very healthy. Bitcoin’s current market share has exceeded 50%, and we can pay more attention to Ethereum after this bull market.

The market has strengthened, the BTC & ETH options bulk market is extremely active, and large investors have begun to diverge.
Yesterday's largest single ETH block transaction was a roll position with a nominal value of US$17 million. It sold 3,000 ETH-29MAR24-2800-C and bought 3,000 ETH-29MAR24-3000-C, continuing to go long. Ethereum.
According to the bulk orders we tracked on Twitter before, the opening cost of this position at the beginning of the month was about US$200,000. Through this rollover, the large investor successfully recovered the principal and left three times the principal in profit to continue to retain the long order.

The options bulk market has been very hot recently, and a Bitcoin butterfly combination with a nominal value of US$20 million has just been traded.
This single block trade is a newly opened option, betting that Bitcoin will fall slightly before expiration at the end of March, with $47,000 being the maximum profit point. At the same time, there is a component of shorting the implied volatility. If it falls below $44,000 or does not fall below $49,800, you will lose money, but the maximum loss is limited.
Whale users have continued to increase short positions recently, and are generally in a mentality of protecting spot or taking profits, which is different from most people's expectations of hitting new highs.

Today is Sunday, the date equity IV is only 35%, and yesterday’s date equity IV was only 30%. This is an example of the recent crypto market conditions being completely controlled by US time.
Over the past few weeks, the weekend option IV has maintained the above pattern. Comparing the spot trend, we find that the fluctuations on weekends are not significantly lower than those on weekdays, at least the difference is not so huge.
We can draw a conclusion that users who participate in trading during US trading hours prefer to do long volatility.