After the non-farm data released yesterday, U.S. institutions have once again lowered expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, predicting that the first rate cut will occur in June this year. If this expectation materializes, then Bitcoin may peak before June. The launch rhythm of altcoins usually comes about three to four months before Bitcoin peaks, which may lead to a harvest season between February and May. Additionally, Ethereum's upgrade plan in April aligns well with this overall situation, and FTX's compensation is also expected to be completed in the first half of the year. Overall, most altcoins are currently in a sluggish state, but there is still an opportunity to catch up when the bull market arrives.

After waiting for four years, real money-making opportunities are usually brief, especially in the altcoin sector. Major players will still try to conceal Bitcoin's sell-off, and the altcoin season will come, but the time window for us to ambush and sell is limited, so remember to take profits in time. Based on the liquidation map analysis, there is still a lot of short-selling pressure above, so we can accumulate at lower prices and wait for favorable conditions to materialize, which will be our moment to profit.

According to Reuters, Trump may introduce at least one cryptocurrency-friendly policy on his first day in office. The cryptocurrency industry has been pushing for Trump to issue an executive order within the first 100 days of his presidency to establish a U.S. Bitcoin reserve, ensure that the industry can access banking services, and form a cryptocurrency advisory committee. Based on this, it is speculated that Trump’s first day in office may bring a wave of bullish market activity.

Today is Saturday, and this week can be said to be very volatile. The market first quickly rushed to around 102,800, and then began to fall sharply, falling by more than 10,000 points in three days, putting bulls in trouble. Some people attribute the decline to the Los Angeles fire, while others believe it is the impact of the U.S. stock market crash, or the U.S. government’s approval of the sale of big pies, or the negative factors of recent macroeconomic data, especially the non-agricultural data released last night. In any case, the market currently remains above 91,000 points.

When the market goes down, any negative news will be amplified and linked to the market trend; conversely, when the market rises, the continued buying of institutions such as BlackRock will also attract attention, but the increase in the pie is not significant at that time. With. Therefore, although there has been a lot of negative news this week, as of now, the market remains above 91,000 points, which indicates that Dazhuang does not currently intend to break through this key support point. The Panic and Greed Index fell to 50 yesterday, which is rare in a bull market, so last night was undoubtedly an ideal bargain hunting opportunity. After the release of non-agricultural data in the evening, the market was negatively affected. The market once fell to around 92,000 points, and Ethereum was also close to 3,200 points. If these two points appear again in the next few days, it will be a good entry opportunity. Sometimes we cannot simply rely on the negative impact of the news, but also need to look at the actual trend of the market. At present, the market has shown signs of stabilization, and it is time to gradually enter and plan for possible future rising prices.

The ratio of longs and shorts has also reached a relatively high level, which means that longs are relatively safe. Secondly, the current BN funding rate of Bitcoin has become negative, and BNB has even reached a funding rate of -0.03. This situation will often be repaired in a short period of time. The current market is bearish, and the dog dealer's harvesting methods are usually anti-human. From the 7-day volume of the liquidation data of the shorts above, a large number of short positions have accumulated at or below 103,000 waiting for liquidation. It has been said before that before Trump took office, Bitcoin may continue to go to the range of 103,000~105,000. After all, this wave of market pull-ups is due to Trump's coming to power. Before the corresponding good news lands, according to the trend before the news lands, there will be a wave of pull-ups, and then the good news will land and start to backtest. Human nature will not change, so I believe that this wave of trends will be the same, so the probability of continuing to see a rebound is greater!

However, it is worth noting that after the rebound, there may be a deeper decline. Therefore, this wave gives an opportunity for a rebound. Remember not to fight to the end. As the New Year is approaching in our country, it is better to take profits and have a good New Year. There is only one trading day for US stocks this week. I hope that when the US stock market opens tonight, ETFs will be able to usher in a wave of bottom-fishing.

The non-farm data will be released tonight, and the market has begun to show signs of stabilizing. After touching 91,700 yesterday, it rebounded to 94,700 and then fell again to around 91,200 in the early morning. It is currently in a continuous rebound and has now reached around 94,000. It is worth mentioning that the current Fear and Greed Index is around 50, which is rarely seen in a big bull market. Perhaps it also indicates the arrival of the bottom!

Short-term rebound signals are emerging, and operations should be cautious to deal with possible pullbacks!

1. The current market rebound is obvious, but we need to be vigilant about the risk of subsequent pullbacks.

2. The panic greed index returned to around 50, reflecting that market sentiment has stabilized, which may indicate that the bottom is near.

3. The funding rate is negative, and the market sentiment is bearish, but it may be repaired in the short term.

4. It is expected that Bitcoin may climb to the range of 103,000 to 105,000 before Trump's policies are implemented, but there will be fluctuations in this process.

5. The altcoin market is risky, and it is recommended to prioritize Bitcoin operations.

In terms of operation, we must remain flexible, assess the situation, not blindly chase highs, and not rush to sell, and patiently wait for a clearer trend.

As the market stands now, many altcoins have actually dropped to a reasonable price range. Bitcoin is currently testing the support of this neckline for the fifth time; although it seems to be in place, it cannot be fully confirmed yet. If there is a long wick downwards here, breaking below 90,000 briefly and then quickly recovering, it will completely clear out contract long positions and leveraged positions.

If a sharp drop occurs, remember to buy altcoin spot in a timely manner. The market script was basically finalized at the end of November, and the current state is to hold onto spot positions and wait for opportunities.

The current situation of altcoins is indeed quite awkward, with the comparison of risks and potential returns roughly being:

Meme Coins > Altcoins > Bitcoin

If the goal is to earn a profit of 1M, the required capital investment is:

Bitcoin ≥ Altcoins > Meme Coins

Looking at the market situation from 2022 to now, the performance of the vast majority of altcoins is worse than that of Bitcoin.

The last bull market saw a massive influx of funds, while this time it feels more like a gradual inflow into the market.
During today's discussion with friends, it was mentioned that the author in "The Black Swan" referred to the "Barbell Strategy"; in fact, current altcoins are in that awkward position of neither high nor low.

Currently, most people's expectations for altcoins are pinned on the potential emergence of an "altcoin season." However, based on recent fluctuations, the ups and downs of altcoins are like an ECG; the current recommendation is: do not hold more than 30% of your total assets in altcoins, and consider allocating 5% of your funds to meme coins for some experimentation.

The continuous decline over the past few days has almost returned the prices of altcoins to their starting points, reminding one of the black swan event on May 19, 2019. However, this time the pullback does not seem to have rebounded as quickly as it did back then; instead, it has entered a prolonged downward trend, as if no one in the market cares about it anymore.

Compared to that time, the decline of altcoins this time and the overall market pullback are more severe. Looking back at the bull market of 2021, BTC once dominated the scene, while ETH remained silent until January 19 when it broke its historical high. However, just two days later on January 21, Ethereum experienced a 20% single-day crash, with contracts in the market getting completely washed out. After a week of volatile adjustments, the market gradually warmed up, and altcoins experienced an explosion, rising continuously for three months until May 19. At that time, ETH doubled, and many altcoins saw increases of more than ten times! However, after the bull market ended, the upward movement of the market became more limited, with only a few able to profit from it.

But don’t rush; the market has its own rhythm. Every year, the big players give out red envelopes, bringing some surprises to retail investors, and this year is no exception. Patience will lead to opportunities.

Bitcoin has followed the US stock market and has fallen below the 100,000 mark. Currently, it is mainly in a state of fluctuation and adjustment. However, the CEX altcoins are quite devastating; they can't keep up when the market rises and fall without exception when it declines.

In contrast, on-chain AI has various project plays emerging every day; this is the trend. Once the trend of AI opens up, it won't easily end. This is just the beginning, and it will be accompanied by various infrastructures. There are still many fun things to come. If you haven't participated yet, there's no rush; there are plenty of opportunities. However, when charging forward, you must manage your positions well, as it's easy to go to zero if you're not careful.

After the weekend fluctuations, it is expected that this week will continue to rise. The following operational suggestion is to hold positions steady, as it may replicate the trend of early November: Bitcoin will rise first, and once it reaches a certain level, altcoins will follow suit. Considering the relatively low risk of the market before Trump's inauguration on January 20, whether we see a peak will depend on market sentiment at that time. If sentiment is good, it may continue until the FOMC meeting on January 29.

Recommended holdings:

Meme: $DOGE, $PEPE, $NEIRO

U.S./Trump concept: $XLM, $ENA, $COW, $RSR

On-chain projects: $BUZZ, $GNZ, $SWARMS, $HTERM, $SPORES, #KHEOWZOO, #CHILLGUY

Currently, FTX's compensation has started, and good news for the first quarter is relatively concentrated, so it is highly likely to drive a wave of profit trends. However, it is important to manage the rhythm of market fluctuations to maximize profits! The current focus is on positioning for the market after Trump's return to office. After the favorable policy is implemented, a correction is expected, which is also the best opportunity to lay out for February and March. Before Trump's return to office, Bitcoin's rise was somewhat rapid, so our window for profit-taking is relatively limited; we must closely monitor and grasp the timing!

The popularity of AI has now far surpassed other fields!

After experiencing multiple market rotations including inscriptions, runes, AI, DEPIN, RWA, TON ecology, SUI ecology, MEME, elections, ETF sectors, NFT, platform tokens, DESCI, and AI AGENT, the most promising narrative may have surfaced: AI Agent.

This is a track that integrates Meme liquidity and Build value, with extremely broad room for topic expansion.

There may be adjustments in the short term, but there is no need to worry about Sun Ge's involvement; the market potential of AI + Crypto is enormous, with market capitalizations of 10 billion, 20 billion, or even 50 billion being possible!

In January, with Trump back in power, Ethereum's staking feature is expected to officially launch, and staking applications will begin. So far, approximately $385 million in funds are ready to enter the market. This move is expected to further enhance the value of the Ethereum ecosystem. At the same time, Ethereum will also welcome the Prague upgrade, with a specific release date expected in January. Although it is currently impossible to clearly predict the specific pros and cons that this upgrade will bring, based on the performance of past Ethereum network upgrades, it generally brings positive effects. Therefore, these two favorable pieces of news are expected to drive up the price of ETH in January. #ETH

In 2025, a general rise in the market will occur, but there will be severe differentiation in market structure, with the gap between strong hot spots and less popular projects possibly reaching several times.

Meme coins will welcome a strong cycle, which might be the most intense wave in the past two years. There will be many opportunities on-chain, at least one or two projects with a thousandfold return, but there will also be more cryptocurrencies that may go to zero, making it quite challenging for novice investors.

New star projects will emerge in the secondary market, similar to running shoes and other types of assets, which are worth paying attention to.

Subsequent speculation will tend to concentrate, with concepts like AI, RWA, Trump, BlackRock, and Grayscale becoming mainstream.

When investing, one should not solely rely on market capitalization concepts; do not assume that large market caps have no room for growth, and small market caps may not necessarily offer great opportunities.

I believe that the current market structure differentiation is very obvious, and those neglected projects may become the last wave of highlights, but overall, this will be the tail end of the entire cycle.

When this round ends, the altcoin market will be in disarray, paving the way for the next major reshuffling.