大手川隆
大道至简 ｜ 买预期卖事实
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2.1 Years
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The trend completely aligns with the accumulation by the investors, currently entering the distribution phase.
The target continues to look towards 93000-94000 and oscillate within the range of 90000.
The target continues to look towards 93000-94000 and oscillate within the range of 90000.
Bitcoin is ready to break through
Since the diamond top was proposed in February, Bitcoin has entered the correction phase. It seems that the correction is nearing its end and is ready to usher in the last big rise.
The BTC trend in Figure 1 is 90% similar to the Wyckoff accumulation model in Figure 2, and the rebound after creating three lows corresponds to stages A, B and C. Trump's announcement of easing tariffs on other countries officially corresponds to the Spring "spring effect" and comes to stage D. So I think a huge Sign Of Strength is coming, that is, the United States and China reach an agreement. LX also mentioned the politicization of the currency circle in the live broadcast room last night. When I think of everything as so coincidental, I also think that all the market conditions are created by the dealer in conjunction with political events.
Figure 3 is the cottage season indicator on April 15, 2025. It has now been adjusted back to a price that is very suitable for opening a position. Even if the cottage cannot return to the high level in November, there will still be dead cat jumps.
Figure 4 shows the bubble index of the BTC rainbow chart, and it has not yet reached the orange-red area, so it will be considered to clear the position only when it reaches at least 110,000.
{future}(BTCUSDT)
Since the diamond top was proposed in February, Bitcoin has entered the correction phase. It seems that the correction is nearing its end and is ready to usher in the last big rise.
The BTC trend in Figure 1 is 90% similar to the Wyckoff accumulation model in Figure 2, and the rebound after creating three lows corresponds to stages A, B and C. Trump's announcement of easing tariffs on other countries officially corresponds to the Spring "spring effect" and comes to stage D. So I think a huge Sign Of Strength is coming, that is, the United States and China reach an agreement. LX also mentioned the politicization of the currency circle in the live broadcast room last night. When I think of everything as so coincidental, I also think that all the market conditions are created by the dealer in conjunction with political events.
Figure 3 is the cottage season indicator on April 15, 2025. It has now been adjusted back to a price that is very suitable for opening a position. Even if the cottage cannot return to the high level in November, there will still be dead cat jumps.
Figure 4 shows the bubble index of the BTC rainbow chart, and it has not yet reached the orange-red area, so it will be considered to clear the position only when it reaches at least 110,000.
{future}(BTCUSDT)
Bitcoin is ready to break through
Since the diamond top was proposed in February, Bitcoin has entered the correction phase. It seems that the correction is nearing its end and is ready to usher in the last big rise.
The BTC trend in Figure 1 is 90% similar to the Wyckoff accumulation model in Figure 2, and the rebound after creating three lows corresponds to stages A, B and C. Trump's announcement of easing tariffs on other countries officially corresponds to the Spring "spring effect" and comes to stage D. So I think a huge Sign Of Strength is coming, that is, the United States and China reach an agreement. LX also mentioned the politicization of the currency circle in the live broadcast room last night. When I think of everything as so coincidental, I also think that all the market conditions are created by the dealer in conjunction with political events.
Figure 3 is the cottage season indicator on April 15, 2025. It has now been adjusted back to a price that is very suitable for opening a position. Even if the cottage cannot return to the high level in November, there will still be dead cat jumps.
Figure 4 shows the bubble index of the BTC rainbow chart, and it has not yet reached the orange-red area, so it will be considered to clear the position only when it reaches at least 110,000.
Since the diamond top was proposed in February, Bitcoin has entered the correction phase. It seems that the correction is nearing its end and is ready to usher in the last big rise.
The BTC trend in Figure 1 is 90% similar to the Wyckoff accumulation model in Figure 2, and the rebound after creating three lows corresponds to stages A, B and C. Trump's announcement of easing tariffs on other countries officially corresponds to the Spring "spring effect" and comes to stage D. So I think a huge Sign Of Strength is coming, that is, the United States and China reach an agreement. LX also mentioned the politicization of the currency circle in the live broadcast room last night. When I think of everything as so coincidental, I also think that all the market conditions are created by the dealer in conjunction with political events.
Figure 3 is the cottage season indicator on April 15, 2025. It has now been adjusted back to a price that is very suitable for opening a position. Even if the cottage cannot return to the high level in November, there will still be dead cat jumps.
Figure 4 shows the bubble index of the BTC rainbow chart, and it has not yet reached the orange-red area, so it will be considered to clear the position only when it reaches at least 110,000.
The 2.16 announcement reminds everyone that the diamond top formation is complete, and those who cleared their positions before the 22nd have perfectly realized their profits. Unexpectedly, the market makers coordinated with the bybit theft incident to drive the price down.
Bitcoin currently has a complete structure and is in the fourth wave pullback of a major cycle, with the lowest target looking towards around 73500 (which is also the top of the large third wave and the target for liquidity capture below). The fifth wave will push back above 110,000.
From the perspective of the Wyckoff accumulation phase, Bitcoin is expected to consolidate within the first purple area of Figure (2) until it reaches the descending trend line and ultimately shake out to near the top of the large third wave.
Everything is happening faster than expected, so the timeframe will be around March 16th (which is also one of the important dates for Gann's reversal).
The altcoin season index will drop to 25, immediately filling up the leverage in altcoins.
Bitcoin currently has a complete structure and is in the fourth wave pullback of a major cycle, with the lowest target looking towards around 73500 (which is also the top of the large third wave and the target for liquidity capture below). The fifth wave will push back above 110,000.
From the perspective of the Wyckoff accumulation phase, Bitcoin is expected to consolidate within the first purple area of Figure (2) until it reaches the descending trend line and ultimately shake out to near the top of the large third wave.
Everything is happening faster than expected, so the timeframe will be around March 16th (which is also one of the important dates for Gann's reversal).
The altcoin season index will drop to 25, immediately filling up the leverage in altcoins.
The past few months have formed a very ugly pattern - Diamond Top
The breakout point is likely to be the time in March when it is announced that there will be no interest rate cuts/increases.
Altcoins will only be lower in price than now; the small altcoin season in November has already passed, and after that, the altcoin season index will reach the bottom again, and the greed index will turn to panic.
There is also a lot of liquidity between 80,000 and 88,000. Clear positions or set up short positions before the 22nd, and wait to re-enter after liquidity is taken away.
The breakout point is likely to be the time in March when it is announced that there will be no interest rate cuts/increases.
Altcoins will only be lower in price than now; the small altcoin season in November has already passed, and after that, the altcoin season index will reach the bottom again, and the greed index will turn to panic.
There is also a lot of liquidity between 80,000 and 88,000. Clear positions or set up short positions before the 22nd, and wait to re-enter after liquidity is taken away.
This week's focus points: tonight's August seasonally adjusted CPI, tomorrow's PPI, and the day after tomorrow's one-year inflation data. Will the volatility tonight be a bit large? !
After a few days of rebound, BTC has also come close to 58,000. The above 61,000 is locked in. If the data in the next two days is positive, there is still a chance to touch 60,000, and there is a chance of a wave.
The time for the interest rate cut meeting on the 19th is very close. As long as the interest rate cut channel is opened as scheduled, it will be stable in the long run, but don't expect it to take off as soon as the interest rate is cut. It may also be a good thing to hit the market first!
#比特币 #BTC走势分析 #美联储何时降息？ #美国经济软着陆？ #美国大选如何影响加密产业？
After a few days of rebound, BTC has also come close to 58,000. The above 61,000 is locked in. If the data in the next two days is positive, there is still a chance to touch 60,000, and there is a chance of a wave.
The time for the interest rate cut meeting on the 19th is very close. As long as the interest rate cut channel is opened as scheduled, it will be stable in the long run, but don't expect it to take off as soon as the interest rate is cut. It may also be a good thing to hit the market first!
#比特币 #BTC走势分析 #美联储何时降息？ #美国经济软着陆？ #美国大选如何影响加密产业？
At present, there is no expectation that BTC will break the previous high. All positive expectations have been realized. Before the December election, altcoins will pull back or double bottom with the volatility of BTC. This week's BTC conference will slightly rise, and then there will be a sharp pullback. From the historical data, the market has also gone through five waves of rise for more than half a month, so next we will see the five waves fall to 58,000 to repair the daily RSI and KDJ.
#比特币 #比特币大会 #比特币是否有望达到新的峰值 #比特币走势 #山寨季何时到来？
#比特币 #比特币大会 #比特币是否有望达到新的峰值 #比特币走势 #山寨季何时到来？
The anomaly of non-farm data in May
The new non-farm employment and unemployment rate in the United States in May were in conflict. The data showed that the non-farm employment population increased by 272,000 but the unemployment rate increased to 4%. These two data are indeed incredible, and the market quickly responded to the decline, but there is no need to turn short. After all, it is a bull market and has just been halved. From historical data, Bitcoin has a very strong bull-bear conversion cycle. You can observe the trend after each halving.
From an economic point of view, the rise in unemployment is not a bad thing for interest rate cuts. The interest rate hike cycle of the US dollar after the epidemic has led to a series of consequences: the appreciation of the US dollar, the high cost of employment in the labor market has led to an increase in unemployment and fatigue in the labor market; the increase in loan costs has caused companies to repay higher debts, further increasing company costs.
The size of the U.S. national debt has reached six times that of the 2008 financial crisis. The federal government's fiscal deficit in fiscal year 2023 reached 1.69 trillion U.S. dollars, an increase of 320 billion U.S. dollars from the previous fiscal year, a year-on-year increase of 23%; the average annual proportion of the federal government budget deficit to GDP in the past 40 years was 3.7%, and it rose to 5.3% in 2023. Putting aside the debt, a single huge government deficit will lead to economic growth fatigue, and the government has no extra money to invest in the real industry to stimulate economic growth. Then the interest rate cut will inevitably follow, and now it depends on how long it can last. I personally hope that Trump will take office, after all, he is a businessman; unlike Biden, the market will collapse as soon as the war starts.
Don't think that if it falls, it will be bearish and if it rises, it will be bullish. You must have the ability to think independently. From the macro perspective to what will happen in the near future, look at the long-term.
#美联储利率决策即将公布 #非农就业人数高于预期 #比特币政策 #比特币走势分析 #现货推荐
The new non-farm employment and unemployment rate in the United States in May were in conflict. The data showed that the non-farm employment population increased by 272,000 but the unemployment rate increased to 4%. These two data are indeed incredible, and the market quickly responded to the decline, but there is no need to turn short. After all, it is a bull market and has just been halved. From historical data, Bitcoin has a very strong bull-bear conversion cycle. You can observe the trend after each halving.
From an economic point of view, the rise in unemployment is not a bad thing for interest rate cuts. The interest rate hike cycle of the US dollar after the epidemic has led to a series of consequences: the appreciation of the US dollar, the high cost of employment in the labor market has led to an increase in unemployment and fatigue in the labor market; the increase in loan costs has caused companies to repay higher debts, further increasing company costs.
The size of the U.S. national debt has reached six times that of the 2008 financial crisis. The federal government's fiscal deficit in fiscal year 2023 reached 1.69 trillion U.S. dollars, an increase of 320 billion U.S. dollars from the previous fiscal year, a year-on-year increase of 23%; the average annual proportion of the federal government budget deficit to GDP in the past 40 years was 3.7%, and it rose to 5.3% in 2023. Putting aside the debt, a single huge government deficit will lead to economic growth fatigue, and the government has no extra money to invest in the real industry to stimulate economic growth. Then the interest rate cut will inevitably follow, and now it depends on how long it can last. I personally hope that Trump will take office, after all, he is a businessman; unlike Biden, the market will collapse as soon as the war starts.
Don't think that if it falls, it will be bearish and if it rises, it will be bullish. You must have the ability to think independently. From the macro perspective to what will happen in the near future, look at the long-term.
#美联储利率决策即将公布 #非农就业人数高于预期 #比特币政策 #比特币走势分析 #现货推荐
#BTC走势分析
A purely technical view - Bitcoin is ready to pull back
Since the day of the CPI release, Bitcoin has risen by more than 5,000 points in two days, temporarily giving everyone a feeling of bullish recovery.
From the daily line, the Bollinger Bands have touched the upper rail and hovered for two days, and the bulls are not strong enough to break through upward. The upper rail of the two daily Bollinger Bands also formed a pressure line, and the horizontal axis is also a pressure line near 66,000. So if there is no very strong news next, then Bitcoin will probably be the first to fall back to the support line of 63,000 below (it has fallen back many times before, so it can be regarded as a strong support line)
The daily Stoch RSI is also at a high of 93.37. Although the RSI is at 67.09, there is still a high probability of a pullback when the two are combined
The graph given by KDJ is also very standard, J>K&D, and there will be a downward pullback trend as in the previous rounds
The final volumes are also shrinking and rising, and there is no energy to continue to rise. Although MACD is about to cross the zero axis to form a golden cross, this may also be the last round of callback! After all, there are black swan events like 519, and the currency circle does not rule out any possible events. There is also a phenomenon of bottoming out in altcoins, but the risk of continuing to fall is not ruled out, so it is better to wait and see.
Finally, I hope everyone escapes and crosses the class in this bull market!
#美国4月CPI数据回落 $BTC $ETH $SOL
A purely technical view - Bitcoin is ready to pull back
Since the day of the CPI release, Bitcoin has risen by more than 5,000 points in two days, temporarily giving everyone a feeling of bullish recovery.
From the daily line, the Bollinger Bands have touched the upper rail and hovered for two days, and the bulls are not strong enough to break through upward. The upper rail of the two daily Bollinger Bands also formed a pressure line, and the horizontal axis is also a pressure line near 66,000. So if there is no very strong news next, then Bitcoin will probably be the first to fall back to the support line of 63,000 below (it has fallen back many times before, so it can be regarded as a strong support line)
The daily Stoch RSI is also at a high of 93.37. Although the RSI is at 67.09, there is still a high probability of a pullback when the two are combined
The graph given by KDJ is also very standard, J>K&D, and there will be a downward pullback trend as in the previous rounds
The final volumes are also shrinking and rising, and there is no energy to continue to rise. Although MACD is about to cross the zero axis to form a golden cross, this may also be the last round of callback! After all, there are black swan events like 519, and the currency circle does not rule out any possible events. There is also a phenomenon of bottoming out in altcoins, but the risk of continuing to fall is not ruled out, so it is better to wait and see.
Finally, I hope everyone escapes and crosses the class in this bull market!
#美国4月CPI数据回落 $BTC $ETH $SOL
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