本周关注节点：今晚的8月季调后CPI，明天ppi，后天一年期通胀数据。今晚的波动会有点大？！

BTC经过几天的反弹，也来到了接近58000的位置，上方61000套牢筹码聚集，这两天的数据如果利好的话，还是有机会摸一摸6万的，有波段的机会。

距离19号降息会议时间很近了，只要如期开启降息通道，长期就稳了，但是不要期待一降息就起飞，也可能利好落地先来一顿砸盘！

#比特币 #BTC走势分析 #美联储何时降息？ #美国经济软着陆？ #美国大选如何影响加密产业？

At present, there is no expectation that BTC will break the previous high. All positive expectations have been realized. Before the December election, altcoins will pull back or double bottom with the volatility of BTC. This week's BTC conference will slightly rise, and then there will be a sharp pullback. From the historical data, the market has also gone through five waves of rise for more than half a month, so next we will see the five waves fall to 58,000 to repair the daily RSI and KDJ.

#比特币 #比特币大会 #比特币是否有望达到新的峰值 #比特币走势 #山寨季何时到来？

The anomaly of non-farm data in May

The new non-farm employment and unemployment rate in the United States in May were in conflict. The data showed that the non-farm employment population increased by 272,000 but the unemployment rate increased to 4%. These two data are indeed incredible, and the market quickly responded to the decline, but there is no need to turn short. After all, it is a bull market and has just been halved. From historical data, Bitcoin has a very strong bull-bear conversion cycle. You can observe the trend after each halving.

From an economic point of view, the rise in unemployment is not a bad thing for interest rate cuts. The interest rate hike cycle of the US dollar after the epidemic has led to a series of consequences: the appreciation of the US dollar, the high cost of employment in the labor market has led to an increase in unemployment and fatigue in the labor market; the increase in loan costs has caused companies to repay higher debts, further increasing company costs.

The size of the U.S. national debt has reached six times that of the 2008 financial crisis. The federal government's fiscal deficit in fiscal year 2023 reached 1.69 trillion U.S. dollars, an increase of 320 billion U.S. dollars from the previous fiscal year, a year-on-year increase of 23%; the average annual proportion of the federal government budget deficit to GDP in the past 40 years was 3.7%, and it rose to 5.3% in 2023. Putting aside the debt, a single huge government deficit will lead to economic growth fatigue, and the government has no extra money to invest in the real industry to stimulate economic growth. Then the interest rate cut will inevitably follow, and now it depends on how long it can last. I personally hope that Trump will take office, after all, he is a businessman; unlike Biden, the market will collapse as soon as the war starts.

Don't think that if it falls, it will be bearish and if it rises, it will be bullish. You must have the ability to think independently. From the macro perspective to what will happen in the near future, look at the long-term.

#美联储利率决策即将公布 #非农就业人数高于预期 #比特币政策 #比特币走势分析 #现货推荐

#BTC走势分析

A purely technical view - Bitcoin is ready to pull back

Since the day of the CPI release, Bitcoin has risen by more than 5,000 points in two days, temporarily giving everyone a feeling of bullish recovery.

From the daily line, the Bollinger Bands have touched the upper rail and hovered for two days, and the bulls are not strong enough to break through upward. The upper rail of the two daily Bollinger Bands also formed a pressure line, and the horizontal axis is also a pressure line near 66,000. So if there is no very strong news next, then Bitcoin will probably be the first to fall back to the support line of 63,000 below (it has fallen back many times before, so it can be regarded as a strong support line)

The daily Stoch RSI is also at a high of 93.37. Although the RSI is at 67.09, there is still a high probability of a pullback when the two are combined

The graph given by KDJ is also very standard, J>K&D, and there will be a downward pullback trend as in the previous rounds

The final volumes are also shrinking and rising, and there is no energy to continue to rise. Although MACD is about to cross the zero axis to form a golden cross, this may also be the last round of callback! After all, there are black swan events like 519, and the currency circle does not rule out any possible events. There is also a phenomenon of bottoming out in altcoins, but the risk of continuing to fall is not ruled out, so it is better to wait and see.

Finally, I hope everyone escapes and crosses the class in this bull market!

#美国4月CPI数据回落 $BTC $ETH $SOL