加密-柯南
公众号（ 加密柯南 ）
7 Following
360 Followers
306 Liked
23 Shared
All
Quotes
Videos
See original
Today $MON has returned above the ICO price again, which is somewhat preserving its face. However, from the on-chain TVL and active user data, it currently can't support such a large FDV. As a new public chain, it still needs more aggressive innovations and killer applications to emerge, otherwise it lacks the attributes for long-term holding.
Additionally, the Binance Alpha project is currently a key area to focus on. $FIR has shown upward momentum in the past couple of days. This is a cryptocurrency in the AI music sector, and if it surges, there is still considerable room for speculation!
Additionally, the Binance Alpha project is currently a key area to focus on. $FIR has shown upward momentum in the past couple of days. This is a cryptocurrency in the AI music sector, and if it surges, there is still considerable room for speculation!
See original
Festival of Altcoins? Can't rise, falls quickly
Last night's decline was the largest since the start of the financial bull market. Bitcoin dropped from a historical high of 124,400 to around 117,000, and ETH fell from nearly the previous high of 4788 to around 4450. In terms of percentage drop, it is still acceptable and cannot be classified as a waterfall decline. However, altcoins suffered greatly; they couldn't keep up when prices rose and fell faster than anyone else, which hurt those heavily invested in altcoins. The worst affected are actually the players trading contracts.
Altcoins in the history of the cryptocurrency market are essentially amplifiers—rising a lot and falling just as much. In the long run, their values are often inflated, which is why ordinary players hold altcoins for much longer than they trade contracts. In previous bull markets, funds would rotate from mainstream coins to altcoins after the mainstream coins had risen, allowing many players to make significant profits. However, this round is different; influenced by coin stocks, ETFs, and large-scale on-chain asset issuance every day, the altcoin market has lost its speculative uniqueness, which is why it has become a 'festival of altcoins.'
Altcoins in the history of the cryptocurrency market are essentially amplifiers—rising a lot and falling just as much. In the long run, their values are often inflated, which is why ordinary players hold altcoins for much longer than they trade contracts. In previous bull markets, funds would rotate from mainstream coins to altcoins after the mainstream coins had risen, allowing many players to make significant profits. However, this round is different; influenced by coin stocks, ETFs, and large-scale on-chain asset issuance every day, the altcoin market has lost its speculative uniqueness, which is why it has become a 'festival of altcoins.'
See original
Three consecutive waves of good news, the crypto market is on fire!
In the past few days, the market has been full of great performances:
The first wave: The Bank of England cut interest rates directly by 25 basis points, bringing the rate to 4%. For risk assets, this is like handing out sweeteners in advance—money is cheaper now.
The second wave: Big Mouth Trump signed an executive order at midnight, allowing U.S. 401(k) retirement accounts to buy cryptocurrency. You read that right, this is a $9-11 trillion asset pool; even if only 1% is allocated, that’s $90 billion in firepower. For BTC, this is officially certified 'retirement allocation,' instantly enhancing its long-term value.
The third wave: The tug-of-war between the SEC and Ripple finally comes to an end, with XRP officially stamped—non-security! This is not only a victory for XRP but also a milestone for the entire U.S. crypto industry, likely attracting more institutions to enter the market with legitimacy.
The first wave: The Bank of England cut interest rates directly by 25 basis points, bringing the rate to 4%. For risk assets, this is like handing out sweeteners in advance—money is cheaper now.
The second wave: Big Mouth Trump signed an executive order at midnight, allowing U.S. 401(k) retirement accounts to buy cryptocurrency. You read that right, this is a $9-11 trillion asset pool; even if only 1% is allocated, that’s $90 billion in firepower. For BTC, this is officially certified 'retirement allocation,' instantly enhancing its long-term value.
The third wave: The tug-of-war between the SEC and Ripple finally comes to an end, with XRP officially stamped—non-security! This is not only a victory for XRP but also a milestone for the entire U.S. crypto industry, likely attracting more institutions to enter the market with legitimacy.
See original
Who benefits from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts? Looking at the ETH ecosystem and the rotation of altcoins.
The Federal Reserve is indeed a bit anxious this time—The probability of an interest rate cut in September has soared to 94.4%, and even the usually cautious Daly said, 'The time for an interest rate cut is almost here.' The market has already treated two rate cuts this year as a high-probability event. What does this mean? Simply put, money is about to become cheaper, the dollar is going to weaken, and market liquidity will be released, which serves as a dual fueling station for sentiment and valuation in the crypto market.
Of course, we can't get too excited. If inflation or employment data suddenly improves one day, and the pace of rate cuts changes, the market could very likely turn around immediately.
Looking overseas, the EU's trade countermeasures against the US have been suspended for six months. The global macro situation is stabilizing, and market risk appetite is on the rise, which is crucial for capital to flow back into high-risk assets, and the cryptocurrency space naturally benefits.
Of course, we can't get too excited. If inflation or employment data suddenly improves one day, and the pace of rate cuts changes, the market could very likely turn around immediately.
Looking overseas, the EU's trade countermeasures against the US have been suspended for six months. The global macro situation is stabilizing, and market risk appetite is on the rise, which is crucial for capital to flow back into high-risk assets, and the cryptocurrency space naturally benefits.
See original
1 billion earns 100 million, 100,000 earns 10,000; retail and major players have fundamentally different earning logic!
In the investment market, the difference in capital size determines the fundamental difference in operational styles. Just like driving a car does not require knowing the manufacturing process of tires; one only needs to pay attention to tire pressure and speed limits. Trading is similar — we do not need to master all the strategies of institutions, but we must understand why they differ from us.
The following briefly compares the operational characteristics of retail investors and institutional funds from several key dimensions to help retail investors better understand their advantages:
1. Different capital sizes lead to different styles of play
Retail investor capital: Most are within 1 million, very flexible.
Institutional capital: Easily in the hundreds of millions; entry and exit need to be planned in advance and cannot be taken lightly.
The following briefly compares the operational characteristics of retail investors and institutional funds from several key dimensions to help retail investors better understand their advantages:
1. Different capital sizes lead to different styles of play
Retail investor capital: Most are within 1 million, very flexible.
Institutional capital: Easily in the hundreds of millions; entry and exit need to be planned in advance and cannot be taken lightly.
See original
Cold Reflection on the Crypto Market: Is the Decline an End or a New Beginning?
The recent market rhythm actually does not have much novelty. Bitcoin's trend continues to exhibit seasonal cyclical fluctuations: rising in March, adjusting in April, and if May further declines, June may welcome a decent technical rebound; but if May instead rises or has insufficient decline, June may face a wave of risk release, or even a deep drop.
As for Ethereum, the situation is more severe. The price has once fallen back to around $1500, which is not a simple technical adjustment but a clear lack of confidence. From the trend, it has almost become synonymous with 'more down than up,' like a frog in boiling water, continuously draining investors' patience. The former halo of 'the second-largest cryptocurrency' is gradually fading, and a new leading coin is brewing, while ETH may slowly fade from the main stage.
As for Ethereum, the situation is more severe. The price has once fallen back to around $1500, which is not a simple technical adjustment but a clear lack of confidence. From the trend, it has almost become synonymous with 'more down than up,' like a frog in boiling water, continuously draining investors' patience. The former halo of 'the second-largest cryptocurrency' is gradually fading, and a new leading coin is brewing, while ETH may slowly fade from the main stage.
See original
Why is the narrative of this bull market weak? Where are the real opportunities?
Where are the opportunities in this round of the cryptocurrency market?
Weak narratives, lack of innovation
In the last bull market, sectors like DeFi, NFT, MEME, chain games, metaverse, L1, storage, X-to-Earn took turns showcasing, with a compact and layered market narrative and significant wealth effect. In contrast, this market lacks impactful new narratives; they are either renovations of old concepts or various patchworks, with very few innovations that can truly inspire market confidence and attract retail consensus.
Innovation is the driving force; fundamentally, it is the progress of productivity.
The development of the cryptocurrency industry ultimately stems from the innovation and evolution of productivity. The core driving force pushing the market forward is:
Weak narratives, lack of innovation
In the last bull market, sectors like DeFi, NFT, MEME, chain games, metaverse, L1, storage, X-to-Earn took turns showcasing, with a compact and layered market narrative and significant wealth effect. In contrast, this market lacks impactful new narratives; they are either renovations of old concepts or various patchworks, with very few innovations that can truly inspire market confidence and attract retail consensus.
Innovation is the driving force; fundamentally, it is the progress of productivity.
The development of the cryptocurrency industry ultimately stems from the innovation and evolution of productivity. The core driving force pushing the market forward is:
See original
Altcoins follow the mainstream rise, can the crypto summit on March 8 bring new opportunities?
Recently, the Bitcoin and Ethereum markets have experienced a small climax, rebounding from previous lows to new highs. The current market sentiment is optimistic, but the most concerned issue is: when to stop profit and how to avoid the risk of a high point callback?
1. Short-term catalyst: Trump crypto summit
Trump will hold a cryptocurrency summit from 2:30 to 6:30 a.m. Beijing time on March 8. The market generally believes that he may talk about the strategic value of Bitcoin and crypto assets. This news has already boosted market sentiment, and some funds are making early arrangements.
2. BTC short-term resistance level: 94,000-95,000
1. Short-term catalyst: Trump crypto summit
Trump will hold a cryptocurrency summit from 2:30 to 6:30 a.m. Beijing time on March 8. The market generally believes that he may talk about the strategic value of Bitcoin and crypto assets. This news has already boosted market sentiment, and some funds are making early arrangements.
2. BTC short-term resistance level: 94,000-95,000
See original
Are altcoins bottoming out and rebounding? Is a new round of market trend starting?
Since Trump took office, his policy style has always revolved around 'business thinking'. Whether it's tariffs, Russia-Ukraine negotiations, or strategic reserves of cryptocurrencies, he operates in a way of 'raising the price first and bargaining later'. For example, regarding the tariff issue, the market initially expected Trump to strictly implement retaliatory tariffs against Canada, but the Secretary of Commerce later released signals that 'if countries can stop fentanyl from entering the U.S., tariffs can be canceled', even hinting at a compromise. This erratic operation has caused significant fluctuations in market sentiment.
See original
Severe capital outflow, have most altcoins been completely abandoned?
The current market focus is undoubtedly on the upcoming White House crypto summit on March 7. If specific details about the crypto strategic reserves can be disclosed at that time, it would be extremely beneficial for the market. Currently, Polymarket predicts a 62% probability that the U.S. will establish a Bitcoin strategic reserve within the year, indicating that the market still has high expectations for favorable policies. Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that the summit may bring positive signals, which are worth closely monitoring.
The recent market adjustment, aside from the inherent volatility in the crypto market, is also significantly influenced by the escalation of U.S. trade protection policies. The White House has officially announced a new 25% import tariff on Canada and Mexico, with no room for negotiation. Additionally, the U.S. plans to initiate reciprocal tariff policies on April 2, indicating that Washington is accelerating the tightening of global trade liquidity.
The recent market adjustment, aside from the inherent volatility in the crypto market, is also significantly influenced by the escalation of U.S. trade protection policies. The White House has officially announced a new 25% import tariff on Canada and Mexico, with no room for negotiation. Additionally, the U.S. plans to initiate reciprocal tariff policies on April 2, indicating that Washington is accelerating the tightening of global trade liquidity.
See original
The Madness and Ideals of the Crypto Market: Opportunities and Challenges in the Current Turning Point!
I believe the current crypto market is at a special turning point, with liquidity and narratives almost in a vacuum. Simply put, the market has become extremely unstable, and many are starting to doubt the future of this industry.
Since the $trump token was launched, the entire market has experienced a redistribution of wealth, and various altcoins have seen significant declines. Nevertheless, the on-chain activity remains vibrant, with new tokens emerging every day. From $trump, $vine, to $tst, and now today's $car, it's no longer surprising to see tokens with a market cap exceeding a billion within just half a day. Even founders of tech companies and national presidents have started issuing meme coins, which is no longer considered a novelty.
Since the $trump token was launched, the entire market has experienced a redistribution of wealth, and various altcoins have seen significant declines. Nevertheless, the on-chain activity remains vibrant, with new tokens emerging every day. From $trump, $vine, to $tst, and now today's $car, it's no longer surprising to see tokens with a market cap exceeding a billion within just half a day. Even founders of tech companies and national presidents have started issuing meme coins, which is no longer considered a novelty.
See original
Some time ago, many people launched a large-scale FUD attack on CZ.
But recently, the rise of $TST has completely changed the direction of public opinion.
Sure enough, a positive line in the market can change everything!
BNB's performance has far exceeded many second-tier weighted coins.
Next, the primary market represented by BSC and Solana will continue to have opportunities.
But recently, the rise of $TST has completely changed the direction of public opinion.
Sure enough, a positive line in the market can change everything!
BNB's performance has far exceeded many second-tier weighted coins.
Next, the primary market represented by BSC and Solana will continue to have opportunities.
See original
In the past seven years, Ethereum has seen a "red envelope market" around the Spring Festival. Coupled with the continued increase in holdings by the Trump family, the market's expectations for Ethereum's rise have been highly consistent. However, it is this consistent expectation that has led to a sharp decline in the market in the absence of obvious negative factors.
Precise strike by short sellers
In this round of Ethereum's decline, nearly half of the long positions were liquidated in the last minute, indicating that this plunge is most likely a "beheading operation" carefully planned by short sellers to quickly clean up high-leverage long positions.
Market structure adjustment
Although this round of decline has caused serious losses to long positions, it has also solved two long-standing problems in the market: the contradiction between "high position stock" and "strong expectations and weak reality". Therefore, under the current stock game pattern, this adjustment has instead freed up liquidity and valuation space for subsequent structural market conditions.
Oversold rebound opportunity
From historical experience, strong sectors in the market often usher in a technical rebound first after experiencing short-term severe oversold. For traders who are keen on bottom-fishing, the oversold rebound of AI and MEME sectors may be an opportunity worth paying attention to.
Precise strike by short sellers
In this round of Ethereum's decline, nearly half of the long positions were liquidated in the last minute, indicating that this plunge is most likely a "beheading operation" carefully planned by short sellers to quickly clean up high-leverage long positions.
Market structure adjustment
Although this round of decline has caused serious losses to long positions, it has also solved two long-standing problems in the market: the contradiction between "high position stock" and "strong expectations and weak reality". Therefore, under the current stock game pattern, this adjustment has instead freed up liquidity and valuation space for subsequent structural market conditions.
Oversold rebound opportunity
From historical experience, strong sectors in the market often usher in a technical rebound first after experiencing short-term severe oversold. For traders who are keen on bottom-fishing, the oversold rebound of AI and MEME sectors may be an opportunity worth paying attention to.
See original
Four types of altcoins, four destinies!
My experience in the crypto world has led me to summarize that altcoins can roughly be divided into four different levels, each with characteristics that determine their market performance and investors' holding mentality.
Class I projects: positive spiral growth, value and market capitalization coexist
This type of project combines market operations and practical applications, forming a positive cycle of 'doing things while making markets'. The projects not only have successful applications supporting their valuation, but the rise in market conditions will further strengthen belief, allowing holders to receive continuous positive feedback, thereby promoting more long-term holders known as 'diamond hands'. Typical cases include BNB, SOL, ETH, etc. Even if ETH performs poorly in this cycle, there are still many loyal holders firmly believing in its potential for future explosion, as the huge gains brought by ETH in previous bull markets have already provided early holders with enough confidence and returns.
Class I projects: positive spiral growth, value and market capitalization coexist
This type of project combines market operations and practical applications, forming a positive cycle of 'doing things while making markets'. The projects not only have successful applications supporting their valuation, but the rise in market conditions will further strengthen belief, allowing holders to receive continuous positive feedback, thereby promoting more long-term holders known as 'diamond hands'. Typical cases include BNB, SOL, ETH, etc. Even if ETH performs poorly in this cycle, there are still many loyal holders firmly believing in its potential for future explosion, as the huge gains brought by ETH in previous bull markets have already provided early holders with enough confidence and returns.
See original
The U.S. SEC has accepted Grayscale's application for the Solana ETF (19b-4) and started soliciting public comments yesterday. At the same time, the SEC also conducted a public comment solicitation for the LTC ETF application submitted by Canary a week ago.
Based on the current progress, LTC is the fastest among all altcoin ETFs in the application process and is likely to become the first altcoin ETF approved by the SEC.
Based on the current progress, LTC is the fastest among all altcoin ETFs in the application process and is likely to become the first altcoin ETF approved by the SEC.
See original
Will there be another explosive market for altcoins in the future?
1) In the coming year, approximately $35 billion in VC coins will gradually be unlocked, with a weekly unlock amount of $700 million;
2) New cryptocurrencies will be launched one after another, continuously attracting funds into the secondary market;
3) The primary market is gradually becoming the main battleground for VC institutions, with more funds shifting from the secondary market to the primary market;
4) The influx of new off-circle funds is relatively scarce, and the inflow of funds is facing pressure.
1) In the coming year, approximately $35 billion in VC coins will gradually be unlocked, with a weekly unlock amount of $700 million;
2) New cryptocurrencies will be launched one after another, continuously attracting funds into the secondary market;
3) The primary market is gradually becoming the main battleground for VC institutions, with more funds shifting from the secondary market to the primary market;
4) The influx of new off-circle funds is relatively scarce, and the inflow of funds is facing pressure.
See original
The market is shrouded in fog, and future trends remain full of variables!
Recently, the market has been highly volatile, lacking substantial positive news, and the overall trend remains unclear. Reviewing the crash on February 3rd, it not only severely undermined the confidence of bulls but also plunged market sentiment into a state of extreme unease.
Market Status: Fragmentation and Slump
According to previous halving cycles, this should be a good time to buy on dips, but the current market environment is already different. The deep involvement of capital and political factors has made Bitcoin the sole focus of the market, while Ethereum and other altcoins are almost silent, creating a noticeable sense of dissonance in the market.
The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is key. The possibility of an interest rate cut in March is minimal, and a real turning point for the market may not come until May-June. If the rate cut continues to be delayed, the market is likely to continue to decline and fluctuate, with holders facing painful profit reversals, and investors lacking long-term faith may find it difficult to persist.
Market Status: Fragmentation and Slump
According to previous halving cycles, this should be a good time to buy on dips, but the current market environment is already different. The deep involvement of capital and political factors has made Bitcoin the sole focus of the market, while Ethereum and other altcoins are almost silent, creating a noticeable sense of dissonance in the market.
The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is key. The possibility of an interest rate cut in March is minimal, and a real turning point for the market may not come until May-June. If the rate cut continues to be delayed, the market is likely to continue to decline and fluctuate, with holders facing painful profit reversals, and investors lacking long-term faith may find it difficult to persist.
See original
Tonight there is unemployment insurance data that needs attention. Yesterday's ADP data exceeded expectations, but the results were not ideal. This negative news led to a wave of market declines. Tonight's expectations may also not be very optimistic; even if the data meets expectations, the increase may not be significant.
See original
If Bitcoin continues to maintain a four-year cycle, it is expected that the first and fourth quarters will experience two waves of significant market movements. However, if Bitcoin performs poorly in the first quarter of this year, and the overall trend remains weak throughout the year, it is likely to enter a slow bull or long bull phase, which also means that Bitcoin's four-year cycle may be broken.
The key still lies in Bitcoin's performance in the first quarter. Looking at the bear market, unless a major financial crisis occurs, there is not much reason to believe that the market will decline significantly. The U.S. cryptocurrency policy is being formulated and is expected to be gradually released. From the perspective of the larger cyclical trend, there is still a possibility of a wave of upward market movement!
The key still lies in Bitcoin's performance in the first quarter. Looking at the bear market, unless a major financial crisis occurs, there is not much reason to believe that the market will decline significantly. The U.S. cryptocurrency policy is being formulated and is expected to be gradually released. From the perspective of the larger cyclical trend, there is still a possibility of a wave of upward market movement!
See original
Trump Launches 'TRUMP' Coin Shocking the Entire Internet! From NFTs to TRUMP Tokens, Why Does He Have Such High Hopes for the Crypto Future?
The logic and trends behind the Trump token issuance event
The news of Trump issuing tokens may seem magical at first glance, but upon reflection, it makes sense. This is not his first foray into the crypto space:
1. Attempt with NFTs
At the end of 2022, Trump issued 45,000 NFTs through the social platform TruthSocial. These NFTs showcase his personal photos in a baseball card-like format, minted on the Polygon chain, priced at $99 each, purchasable with ETH or fiat currency. This time, he chose Ethereum as the endorsement.
2. DeFi layout
In September 2024, the Trump family launched a DeFi project named World Liberty Financial, providing crypto lending services and issuing non-transferable WLFI tokens. According to official documents, 75% of the project's profits belong to Trump's family company DT Marks DEFI LLC, which manages it independently. They chose Ethereum again this time.
The news of Trump issuing tokens may seem magical at first glance, but upon reflection, it makes sense. This is not his first foray into the crypto space:
1. Attempt with NFTs
At the end of 2022, Trump issued 45,000 NFTs through the social platform TruthSocial. These NFTs showcase his personal photos in a baseball card-like format, minted on the Polygon chain, priced at $99 each, purchasable with ETH or fiat currency. This time, he chose Ethereum as the endorsement.
2. DeFi layout
In September 2024, the Trump family launched a DeFi project named World Liberty Financial, providing crypto lending services and issuing non-transferable WLFI tokens. According to official documents, 75% of the project's profits belong to Trump's family company DT Marks DEFI LLC, which manages it independently. They chose Ethereum again this time.
Login to explore more contents