An 8-year veteran practitioner tells you: How to spend the industry's garbage time
The market has gradually become quiet recently. Many colleagues have expressed that they can’t see the direction clearly or are forced to be friends with time. This is actually not the first time.
Looking back, since I entered the circle in 2016, I seem to have experienced four major garbage cycles. Although I often comfort myself in my heart that all this will pass, the positive cycle will come back, and liquidity will come back, but when we are really in the garbage time, we will feel more or less depressed or helpless.
Winter in Zhongguancun.
The first garbage time was when I entered the circle. At that time, the industry had just shifted from the cold winter of 2015 to the recovery period of 2016. OKCoin and Huobi, located in Zhongguancun, also stopped layoffs. The market was gradually recovering, and exchanges finally had positive income.
Today, 9 years later, Ethereum seems to be facing controversy in the community again, with both sides arguing fiercely. In fact, this is not the first time. I am honored to have entered this industry at the beginning of the second year after the birth of Ethereum, and therefore I have personally experienced the biggest crisis since the birth of Ethereum.
I believe that many elderly people have experienced that crisis. Compared with today's community atmosphere, that crisis was real. Many developers and holders did not sleep for several days.
The end of Friday.
That day was June 17, 2016, which was a Friday if I remember correctly. Like everyone else, we were supposed to finish a tiring week at work, but we received a message push from the work group. When we saw the ETH price on the exchange, I believe everyone was almost scared to death.
The first reaction upon seeing it: Indeed very Trump-like, but somewhat pessimistic.
Because the last one who used this strategy was a small government in a certain place, and then people went everywhere to collect $BTC to fill the treasury. In the future, large BTC holders should still be cautious.
Return to rationality, high inflation + high employment, simply put: if you don't work, you'll end up with nothing to eat.
A unique phenomenon of this market is that often a piece of good news + a call to action will cause prices to spike immediately, but since most people don't have much spare cash to jump in at high prices, it will gradually cap off.
If in the first half of the year, there was no new money printing machine churning out cash, we really should think about where the money is actually coming from.
Let's talk about StakeStone's investment in Binance.
Several projects have been snapshotting one after another these days. In fact, the panic period and bear market are the best times for launching altcoins, as everyone’s expectations are very low. If there is no pressure from ICOs or KOLs at this time, and it can open with a low market cap, the potential secondary market space will also be higher. There are many representative cases here.
The StakeStone project was born in May 2023, just when the market was quite sluggish. However, the team believed that there was no good configuration scheme for liquidity distribution in the market, so they started this entrepreneurial venture.
When the previous market trend was still in play, StakeStone provided 90% and 80% TVL liquidity support for two other king-level projects, Manta and Scroll, respectively. This data also helped them gain points in terms of staking performance, which was beneficial for subsequent listings.
After that, StakeStone began to launch liquidity IDOs, and the initial offering of 7 million USD for Story directly allowed participants in that wave to earn a lot in the secondary market later.
Currently, the two main tokens that the official team is promoting are STO and veSTO, where STO is the asset that will be listed on exchanges in the future, and veSTO can be understood as the voting token corresponding to the shareholders after staking STO. The official team hopes to continuously enhance the rights of veSTO to ultimately attract people to stake circulating STO.
This includes governance voting rights, bribery income, mining yield bonuses, and more.
In the last round of financing, StakeStone's valuation was around 200 million USD, and investors entered during the bear market, accompanying a small cycle. As the specific airdrop details have not yet been disclosed, and the shares listed are not revealed, the market's expected valuation still needs to await more information.
Hard to evaluate... MicroStrategy and Tesla have dropped over 40% in this wave, Ethereum and SOL have also seen around 50%, Bitcoin has decreased by about 23%, but there's one asset that not only didn't fall much in this wave but also rebounded strongly, and that is gold...
This wave can be considered a complete underperformance compared to the elderly.
So magical, a preview leaked from the White House, those trading stocks and gold are speculating it's about the Ukraine mineral agreement, then opening the crypto group, everyone is guessing it's to buy Bitcoin $BTC , it seems everyone has different demands from Your Excellency.
Listening to the elders, the liveliest periods in Tokyo were in 2017 and now. In 2017, due to regulatory reasons, Binance decided to move its headquarters from Shanghai to Tokyo. Many influential figures, such as Zhao Dong, followed suit the following year. At that time, the crypto scene in Tokyo was very vibrant, after all, if you wanted to meet CZ, you had to fly to Tokyo.
But everything came to an end with the rumored visit from the Financial Services Agency in March 2018. However, according to the elders, nothing really happened; they politely came to say that you can't do this in Japan unless you comply with regulations, but at that time compliance was still a slow and exploratory process.
After that, Binance left Tokyo for Dubai, which many peers in Tokyo felt was a great loss. Originally, Tokyo could have potentially become the Asian crypto center because of Binance, but it never regained that liveliness.
The reason why we say the second wave of liveliness is now is that everyone has gradually returned, and it's not just Binance.
In 2022 and 2023, after many compliance frameworks and details stabilized, it turned out that as long as you acquire a shell company, you can come back, and offices can operate openly. People feel at ease, and the Japanese government can protect you.
Moreover, many of the initial projects that came here also realized that if they don't engage in the Japanese market or fiat currency deposits and withdrawals, just working here and paying taxes on time would keep them out of trouble. Some projects even received investments from Japanese VCs.
As a result, in 2023, everyone has been lining up to acquire shells. This year, companies starting with G and O have also come over, and the number of people in offices that already have shells is increasing. I have witnessed this transformation from a small room with a few dozen people to an entire floor with nearly a hundred.
In the past few days, several peers visiting Tokyo complained to me that when they came here in 2018 and 2019, two days on a business trip was enough, but now it's at least a week.
If it weren't for the train spirits, a few days wouldn't really be enough, but I am indeed very happy in Tokyo. Binance has returned, and everyone is gradually coming back, making it more crowded, and we often find ourselves looking down, not seeing each other until we look up.
This generation of cryptocurrency practitioners is too miserable, Poor English, exchanges don't want you; Unwilling to go overseas, project parties don't want you; Over 30, they even look down on you for not knowing Ethereum.
And those who only want to trade coins, last night $ETH slightly rebounded, today it has risen again, my dear baby.
The only negative news today is the massive unlocking of SOL. The 41 million SOL sold during the FTX bankruptcy will be released gradually in March and April of this year.
Currently, the total value of these unlocks, at the current price of $SOL , is approximately 1.63 billion USD, and including all shares, it amounts to 5.98 billion USD.
In recent days, there has been a phenomenon where many places are in a state of positive capital inflow.
Perhaps the recent frequent theft incidents + market panic are an emotional turning point. Rather than believing in the world's computers, which always have the risk of money going to 0, it is better to stay at a centralized bank and observe for a while. At least the credibility and payout ability of the casino are still reliable.
Now it's also understandable why PlanB converted BTC into ETF some time ago.
It always feels like the market is lacking something. If it really has completely turned bearish, then we are missing some iconic events:
1. The exchange app suddenly cannot be opened or crashes; 2. A large exchange or a giant whale gets liquidated or explodes; 3. Upstream and downstream media advertising companies start laying off staff; 4. The contract rates across various platforms generally turn negative; 5. Frequent disputes within the industry; 6. Everyone is talking about philosophy or sharing travel experiences.
An article summarizing the RedStone launched on Binance
After LINK in 2017 and PYTH in 2023, the market finally has an oracle project that is going to issue coins. It is led by Jakub, a senior Ethereum developer, and supported by Coinbase and Kraken. It is Babylon’s only on-chain quotation partner.
After 3 years, what is the potential of RedStone? This article sorts it out, the following is the thread:
RedStone is a cross-chain oracle that uses Arweave technology and is the fastest growing project in the same field this year.
It mainly focuses on on-chain price feeding and support for liquidity staking LST, re-staking ReStaking and Bitcoin ecosystem BTCFi.
It's not easy, RedStone has finally launched its token. When I first contacted them, I could feel that this team was not at all inefficient, which helped them capture a significant market share, possibly related to the subsequent hiring of Asian staff.
Previously, I looked at the token economics, and the expected market circulation after the launch is 28%, while the previously listed tokens Kaito and Solayer on Binance were 24% and 21% respectively. It seems like another wave of long and short battles is coming.
Today, the focus of the market has changed from when ETH will rebound to whether Bybit will sue Safe and its related Gnosis company for the theft of 1.5 billion. This is indeed closely related to the support of Vitalik and related Ethereum interest groups.
Currently, the ETH Foundation and V have not responded to the incident. ETH's rebound after the decline also underperformed BNB and SOL.
Recently, there was a big event, that is, Aya, the executive director of the Ethereum Foundation, was promoted to the chairman of the foundation. After studying her background and origin, it is indeed different from this year's star, Lily Liu, the chairman of the Solana Foundation.
But at the turning point of life and the event of entering the circle, they both met different men.
Huh? I know the market is waiting for the huge unlocking of $SOL on March 1st, but SBF unlocked it first? ?
However, judging from the content, the information this guy has access to in prison seems to be limited. I thought that after this wave of industry recovery, it would be the state of the last bull market, but there are no companies with tens of thousands of people in this wave, including its competitor Binance at that time.
After Solana shuts down the Meme, the next one to be hyped is the SBF narrative.