This year's trend is basically a copy of last year's!
They all peaked in March, and then fell all the way without a break. They fell 4 days a week, and every day they rose, they fell by a few points. They fell for several months. Last year, it fell for 6 months before rebounding. This year has also fallen for 6 months. The interest rate cut in September is nominally good news, but the capital market generally treats it as a good news landing. Now the US stock market is actually reflecting the interest rate cut in advance and is falling.
At present, I am trading on the left side. The disadvantage is that it is normal to be trapped if I buy too early. If I buy too late, the price of the currency will go up again and it will be uncomfortable to chase the rise. It takes luck to get the right amount of money!
Therefore, the way of batching and fixed investment can share the uncertainty of left-side trading!
In a few hours, if the US unilaterally announces the unemployment rate, if the unemployment rate does not rise, then this wave of Bitcoin is likely to break through the range of 53,000 below.
If the unemployment rate rises, then this wave of Bitcoin will return to the upper level of 57,000-58,000, which is very common tonight.
In a few hours, from the one-hour level, it can be seen that one of its downward channels is still there, so it will bear the brunt. If the unemployment rate rises, this wave will immediately break through 57,000 to test the upper level of more than 58,000.
ADP employment is very poor, which is bearish. In the past, poor employment was a positive, but now the closer it is to a rate cut, the more bearish it is.
In August, ADP employment was 99,000, with an expected 145,000, and the previous value was revised from 122,000 to 111,000. The US ADP employment in August recorded an increase of 99,000, the smallest increase since January 2021.
The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending August 31 was 227,000, with an expected 230,000, and the previous value was revised from 231,000 to 232,000.
The number of continuing jobless claims in the United States for the week ending August 24 was 1.838 million, with an expected 1.865 million, and the previous value was revised from 1.868 million to 1.86 million.
This month is the last chance for everyone to build a position!
$FET in the AI sector: The FET that everyone had ambushed a while ago, Apple's positive news will be realized on the 10th, and you can consider taking profits in batches above 1.2.
$AVAX : The epic upgrade on October 16 will be launched, and Avalanche9000 is expected to trigger a craze.
$SUN : Sun Ge plans to repurchase tokens with 100% of the proceeds, which is a potential positive. You can consider the next move below 0.22.
Big events in September, tomorrow will usher in violent fluctuations, whether it is bullish or bearish, Doraemon will make an analysis first: September 6th, the expected value of the big non-farm in July is 17.5, and the published value is 11.4; The expected value for June is 19, and the published value is 20.6; The expected value for May is 18.5, and the published value is 27.2;
From these expected values, it can be seen that the US economy is in recession, and it is getting worse month by month. If the interest rate cut does not come, the data will be worse.
At the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on September 18, the future of Bitcoin may be determined in these three situations:
25 basis point interest rate cut: first rise and then fall
50 basis point interest rate cut: direct takeoff
US short-term interest rate futures show a high probability of a 50 basis point interest rate cut), maintain interest rates unchanged: continue to pull back,
On September 6, the US unemployment rate data will be released. You have to watch it carefully. Once the unemployment rate moves, the market may be in trouble again.
On September 11, there is also the US CPI data, not to mention this, which is directly related to the rise and fall of prices and is also very important.
On September 18, the Federal Reserve is likely to enter a rate cut cycle, and the news will greatly affect the market trend.
There are only a few days before the rate cut. Cousin CZ is likely to release this month. Many projects were previously planned to go online around September, so no matter whether the market will continue to fall, September is a time full of opportunities. Be diligent and try to seize more opportunities.
In the 10 years from 2013 to 2023, only September of 2015, 2016 and 2023 saw a slight increase in the currency circle, and September of the other seven years was a sharp drop.
However, the market basically rose in October, so the saying of "Gold 9 Silver 10" in the currency circle also exists, but this "Gold 9" may mean that there may be a golden pit in September for you to buy at the bottom!
The black line in the figure is the price of $BTC , and the orange line is the overall average purchase price of BTC on the chain
At the end of the bear market and the beginning of the bull market in 2015, the coin price broke through the average purchase price of BTC on the chain, and reached the bull peak two years and 56 days later
At the end of the bear market and the beginning of the bull market in 2019, the coin price broke through the average purchase price of BTC on the chain, and reached the bull peak two years and 13 days later
At the end of the bear market and the beginning of the bull market in 2023, the coin price broke through the average purchase price of BTC on the chain, and it has been one year and 233 days since then
$TRX showed weakness after hitting the key resistance level of 0.17 and a price reversal may be imminent. After a significant rally, the market appears to be preparing for a pullback.
There are several key price levels worth watching. First up is 0.15, which is immediate support below current prices, below which a move below could signal a deeper decline.
$TRX may consolidate here and try to rise again. If it cannot sustain above $0.15, $0.14 will become an important psychological support point as it coincides with the previous resistance point. A break below $0.14 could intensify selling pressure.
Finally, $0.13 is a key level of long-term support, supported by the 100-day moving average. A break below this level would indicate that TRX may be heading for a larger correction, erasing recent gains.
Friends, since the Ethereum ETF was passed, the price has been falling all the way. It is completely using the news to push it up. It feels like it is for Grayscale to sell.
Moreover, since the Ethereum ETF was passed, there have been only 9 days of net inflow, and the rest of the time has been negative inflow, which is a good way for Grayscale and some large institutions to cash out. It's a pity for a group of retail investors who are stuck at the top of the mountain.
It was about to reach 4,000, but it was cut in half. It's so scary. I just want to ask how many veteran players who play Ethereum have suffered losses from the news this round.
Now there is a wash before and after the interest rate cut, which may give institutions to re-enter the market. Everyone should still have confidence. It doesn't matter how much it falls. It mainly depends on whether there are major players to take over. If no one takes over, it will be difficult to pull it up.
In the future market, it is recommended that everyone complete this round of adjustments first and then ambush the long-term. Ethereum is currently quite depressed, and 2300 is unlikely to hold. Go short to 2100 first and then consider going long.
Friends who are interested in Ethereum or who mainly trade Ethereum can start with this round of transfer and build up their positions first! We will also arrange long-term and wave ideas for you later. Friends who are unsure, look for Doraemon in a week, and you will get back double your investment, and everything will be solved.
The US stock market continued to fall at the opening, and the cryptocurrency market was also affected.
Big Cake $BTC fell to 55606, and Second Cake $ETH fell to 2306. This trend is now a dilemma for short-term investors.
According to historical rules, September is indeed difficult, but history can only be used as a reference and will not be simply repeated. The current market selling pressure has been almost digested. Going down, the space is getting smaller and smaller.
Unless there is a major negative event, such as Ethereum or BlackRock, there will be no halving level of plunge.
Not much nonsense, I will continue to update the market position later.
AI leader, of course you can buy it. The current price of 1.5 is optimistic about this coin in the long term. The large level can be regarded as the bottoming shock before the main rising wave. When the subsequent cottage season comes, this coin will definitely be awesome. Can Core be listed now?
The starting point of the last round is the dense chip turnover area in the range of 0.8-0.6. The current price-performance ratio is good. Remember to take it in batches. The cottage will have adjustment and shock time. The upper trend line resistance level is around 1 US dollar
Can you see 2 at $IO ? Of course, the current price is the same as $WLD , both 1.5. The subsequent market of this coin will not be bad.