Recently, many fans have asked me about the market. In fact, I've been saying for over a month that I am bullish on BTC in the medium to long term, with an initial target of breaking 100k, and the ultimate goal is to the moon, which is unpredictable; I am also slightly bullish on the big A, but it will take longer.

First, let's talk about the big logic:
1. The global monetary easing cycle is coming
Regardless of any asset, the core of price fluctuations is the liquidity, not the technical analysis, fundamentals, or policies! When there is enough money in the market, even a black swan event can quickly bounce back to a new high, like the US stock market and cryptocurrency during the pandemic. Therefore:
In the coming year, both China and the US, as superpowers, will continue to cut interest rates and reserve requirements, and Europe, Australia, and others will follow suit (excluding Japan).
The global monetary tightening cycle is ending, ushering in a new round of easing.

2. The US election, with a high probability of Trump being elected, is favorable for the crypto market but unfavorable for the big A
Trump's support for digital currencies is obvious, famously stating, "Let the future of BTC happen in the US," with great fervor. The big coin is likely to surge.
On the contrary, Trump is extremely harsh on China, even more so than Biden. After being elected, he may issue stricter policies against China, which will be unfavorable for the big A in the short term.

3. The risk of war in the Middle East is easing, and Russia-Ukraine may welcome a white swan
In the Middle East, Israel and Iran can only engage in minor skirmishes, with neither side having intentions of war. Every provocation is an opportunity to accumulate chips at a lower price.
The Russia-Ukraine war may gradually begin peace talks after the US elections, potentially concluding next year, which would be a white swan for global assets.

4. BTC is entering a four-year cycle
The last bull market for the big coin was from 2020 to 2021. According to the four-year bull-bear cycle, this round will start in 2024, peaking in 2025. Typically, a bull market also begins a few months after the halving. Don't forget, the last halving was on April 20, 2024, and it has been half a year since then!

The combination of the global easing cycle, the four-year BTC cycle, and the Trump effect, along with the potential for a white swan event in the Russia-Ukraine peace talks next year, could present another significant opportunity for wealth accumulation in life!

Are you ready?

Left hand pancake, right hand MEME
This is the correct posture for this cycle.

The previous article suggests that 71586 is suppressed. The highest point during the day is 71587. There are chips received near 68383, and the chips received before 67775. Pay attention to stop profit!

From the daily K, today's rise has broken away from the shock area after the price stepped back on the neckline of the "tower bottom". This area is enough to challenge the historical high after adjustment and accumulation. It has far-reaching significance for the development of the market outlook. At the same time, we must also actively look at the opportunities after the daily sideways or correction.

From the range of 4H to 12H, the upward momentum has not yet weakened, but the market after the continuous rise is prone to divergence at a small level, and the cost-effectiveness of chasing is not high.

From the 15-minute trend, the secondary rush after the sideways trading in a small range has initially produced a divergence. In the personal trading system, this is the position of short-term spot active profit stop and contract short short position. Beware of a sharp drop in the market.

Short-term support 69110~68577 (watch the market), second support 66976~65666, short-term suppression 72735~73777

如果市场每天都在上涨，那么每个人都会意识到行情正在上涨，纷纷选择买入。但这里存在一个关键的逻辑问题：如果所有人都在买入，那么主力资金又该如何获利呢？
因此，市场必然会经历震荡、上涨、回调和再次震荡等不同的阶段。这包括了上涨后的回调，回调后的震荡，然后再继续上涨的循环。
下跌趋势也是如此，市场会经历震荡、下跌、震荡后的短暂反弹，接着再次震荡下跌，最终形成大幅下跌。
这个过程设计得相当复杂，其目的在于让散户难以把握市场趋势，从而做出错误的交易决策。
正如当前的市场情况，当价格上涨时，散户开始涌入市场，但往往在追涨之后，市场便开始震荡回调。一旦市场震荡回调，散户出于对大跌的恐惧而选择割肉离场。而当散户离场后，主力资金便会再次推动市场上涨。
如果市场无休止地上涨，散户一买入就开始盈利，然后立即卖出，那么主力资金的利润从何而来呢？市场的波动和复杂性为主力资金提供了操作空间，使其能够在散户投资者的买卖中获得利润。

圈内的币种大致可以分为三类：

1. 强庄题材币：
这类的基本面较好，通常有机构支持或大z禁介入。在大盘暴跌时，这类的跌幅相对较小，震荡是关键特征。一旦大盘回暖，它们通常会首先恢复并拉升。

2. 山寨空气币：
这类币基本面几乎不存在，长期缺乏z禁参与，可能出现十几天以上的持续下行或横盘，成交量长期低迷。这些币无法通过量价关系进行有效预测，短期内翻倍吸引新手或冒险者追入，但随后往往迅速回落，从此沉寂无声。

3. 介于前两者之间的币：
这类的基本面较好、一般或仅有噱头，机构不时会进行吵作，但其持续性不强。一旦吸引到足够的关注，往往又会隐匿起来。

自己对照一下你手里的币看看是什么类型的。

Is the altcoin season approaching? What signals are worth paying attention to?
Many indicators show that the price of Bitcoin is soaring, and it seems that the 'altcoin season' is about to arrive.
Although the bull market in 2024 has been hindered since March, leading to a continuous decline in the altcoin market, some key indicators suggest that the recent rebound may be a precursor to significant movements in the future.

A few small-cap quality assets, thinking about them is better than meme coins. If you don't want to buy meme coins with a market cap of tens of millions or billions, you can take a look at these few.

1. eths
2. pizza
3. btcs
4. rats
5. blur
6. atom

The above few are all small-cap, have good narratives, poor liquidity, good fundamentals, and are not listed on major exchanges.

After nearly three months, Bitcoin breaks $70,000 again
Currently only a little over $2,000 away from its all-time high, with a 3% increase;
but other altcoins are basically still halfway up the mountain or at the bottom: even ETH is still 46% away from its all-time high
SOL is 30%, BNB is 16%, while popular coins from the last bull market like DOGE, SHIB, ADA, ICP, FIL, DOT, etc., still have declines of 70%, even 90%;
From this perspective, we can only say that it’s a bull market for Bitcoin alone right now, of course bull markets always start with Bitcoin rising;
The current market liquidity hasn’t picked up yet, and can't support a widespread increase. It may be quite difficult to see other altcoins surge along with Bitcoin; it would be good if 20% of altcoins eventually exceed Bitcoin’s increase;
Next, there are a few major events to watch out for in November to prevent black swan occurrences:
November 1, U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Night;
November 5, U.S. Elections;
November 7, Federal Reserve interest rate decision;
Currently, one should have about half of their positions, but don't be too eager to go all in. It’s best to wait for these three events to settle down and decide your investment strategy based on the market fundamentals at that time.

If USDT has problems (I don't think so), which one will benefit?

It will definitely benefit BTC! Because part of USDT will be exchanged for USDC, part will be withdrawn, and the main part will be exchanged for BTC.

Therefore, I mean if USDT really has problems, BTC will definitely panic and plummet first, and then the people who invested in BTC will be happy.

BTC is good for both fiat currency inflation and stablecoin problems. It is really unsolvable.

Advance to attack, retreat to defend

1. With this rise in BTC, various bull market main waves are emerging one after another. BTC has yet to break through the consolidation range, and ETH hasn't even touched the resistance level. It's hard to talk about a main wave. My view remains unchanged; I do not expect any significant main wave, and ETH and altcoins will continue to decline against BTC until the end of the year.

2. The only situation that would make me stop being bearish is if ETH effectively stays above 2820. This viewpoint has been expressed multiple times. If there truly is a main wave, it will be completely timely to consider going long after it stabilizes. Otherwise, it is just a fleeting wave in a long adjustment process.

BTC.D has been rising for more than 2 years, close to 60%. This round's peak will be between 60%-70%, but it will definitely be lower than the previous 70%, due to stablecoins and new coins, which are expected to reach their peak by the end of the year.

The question is, after BTC.D peaks, will altcoins rise faster than BTC, or will BTC fall faster than altcoins?

The Secrets Behind Candlestick Patterns (Part II): A Beginner's Guide, Candlesticks are the Source of Profit in the Trading Market. Mastering Naked Candlesticks Can Lead to Big Earnings!!!
You must thoroughly understand candlestick patterns. If you are just starting to engage in trading, you might find the concepts of bullish and bearish candles quite complex and hard to grasp, but don't worry, it's not as complicated as it seems. I will teach you to learn it step by step.

The second type: We see this kind of bearish and bullish candles, where there is a long shadow. It used to be a large bullish or bearish candlestick. However, it faced strong opposing pressure, and the defending side showed great determination and strength, ultimately regaining lost ground. By the end of the bearish and bullish candlestick, they still maintain control.
Although its body is relatively short, if we think deeper, we will understand that its range is actually not shorter than the first type of bearish and bullish candles mentioned in the previous article.
This form of bearish and bullish candlestick is called a Shooting Star or Hammer. It represents the strong force of recovery from a long lower shadow. Long lower shadow: indicates strong bullish momentum. Long lower shadow: indicates strong bearish momentum.

The third type: In this category of bearish and bullish candles, the body is not particularly short, but there is one aspect that diminishes our impression of it, which is the shadow.
Taking bullish candles as an example, the price once surged to a high point, but encountered opposing forces. We see that this bullish candlestick has a shadow at the top, which represents rejection, indicating that sellers have reclaimed some lost ground. Compared to the first two forms of determined candlesticks, we see here that the candlestick reflects hesitation and reservation.

炒币人的心态通常有以下几种:

-投机心态:许多炒币者把加密货币看作是快速获取财富的途径，希望通过低买高卖在短期内获得巨大的利润，他们往往关注价格的短期波动，频繁交易。

- 赌博心态:一部分人在炒币时就像赌博一样，孤注一掷地投入大量资金，对市场风险缺乏理性的评估，过于依赖运气，寄希望于一次交易就能实现暴富。

-过度自信心态:这类炒币者可能在初期获得了一些小利润，或者自认为对加密货币市场有深入的了解，从而过度自信，高估自己的能力和判断，加大投资规模，然后就爆仓!

-恐惧与贪婪心态:当币价上涨时，贪婪心理会占据上风，他们总觉得还能涨得更高，迟迟不愿卖出;而当币价下跌时，恐惧心理又会出现，害怕损失进一步扩大，从而匆忙抛售。

- 跟风心态:看到身边的人或者网络上的信息说某种币有潜力，就盲目跟随投资，缺乏自己的独立分析和判断，只是随大流进入市场。

一定要学习反思总结经验吸取教训，做到稳定盈利而不是求快。

There will be extreme one-sided market conditions this week, please pay attention to the specific time nodes
👉
East 8 Zone Time, November 1st, Friday at 20:30

US October unemployment rate, previous value 4.1%, expected 4.1%, published value?

US October Non-Farm Payrolls, previous value 25.4, expected 12.3, published value?

Currently, Trump is far ahead. Is it stable? Trump's election is definitely a positive.

历史上有不少抄底结果破产的名人！

案例一：格雷厄姆在1929年股市泡沫破灭后，，1931年去抄底，没想到最后破产了。失败原因就是抄底抄错了！

案例二：利弗莫尔这个投机之神，当年抄底还连续破产了两次呢？在股市调整的时候重仓不断抄底。美国有个很有名的经济学家费雪，他早就预见到了1929年股市泡沫会破灭，可还是买了自认为便宜的股票，结果没几天就损失了几百万美元，变得一贫如洗。失败原因就是觉得优秀企业能穿越周期，也不看价格就瞎买。

案例三：香港有个有名的股评人曹仁超，
1972年香港股灾前1200点他看空，差点被公司开除。1973年港股涨到1773点后大幅下跌，到1974年跌到400点，曹仁超躲过大熊，可自信了。1974年7月港股跌到290点，他觉得能抄底了，就把自己全部积蓄50万港币拿去抄底和记洋行，这个蓝筹股从1973年股市泡沫时的43块一直跌到5.8块。曹仁超全仓买入，结果后面5个月，港股又跌到150点，和记洋行跌到1.1元。最后曹仁超只能斩仓，亏了80%以上。这些有名气的人都被市场收割了，

何况普通人呢？最让人意难平的是，所有种种到后来都涨回来了，还涨的更高，如果他们不割肉，不止损，不破产，也许又将是一个神话。这就是永远拿住归零，卖完起飞的投资市场啊！