LIVE比特币走势
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中长线分析判断比特币走势，仅供娱乐。
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Long-term analysis of Bitcoin in the next year
Before the big market next week
Write a long article
Since Niu Ding still has exactly one year left
It’s time to write a long-term operation article with a range of up to one year.
Please note that the following is only a forecast analysis. The actual trends may differ. It is meaningful to provide some reference for this article.
Without further ado, here are the pictures.
As you can see, the above picture simulates the approximate trend to the bull peak in the next year.
The key nodes combined with the current time process are as follows:
1. Pull up to 72 in early November
Second, after two weeks of correction, it hit 75 again at the end of November.
3. The three-day line made a big correction, and it returned to 60 in mid-to-late December.
Write a long article
Since Niu Ding still has exactly one year left
It’s time to write a long-term operation article with a range of up to one year.
Please note that the following is only a forecast analysis. The actual trends may differ. It is meaningful to provide some reference for this article.
Without further ado, here are the pictures.
As you can see, the above picture simulates the approximate trend to the bull peak in the next year.
The key nodes combined with the current time process are as follows:
1. Pull up to 72 in early November
Second, after two weeks of correction, it hit 75 again at the end of November.
3. The three-day line made a big correction, and it returned to 60 in mid-to-late December.
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Analysis of gains and losses at market entanglement points
Now we have come to the tangled point again
It is a position that can be moved up and down
Because it is currently at a relatively high position
Without other auxiliary tools such as Qimen
Technical means
Both up and down
First, if we follow the trend of last year, repeatedly wash the market and delay time, waiting for liquidity to be replenished, then referring to the single top trend given at the top, we can return to the weekly middle track around 64 in early December.
Then it will gradually move towards 80,000, and at that time the liquidity can reach 90,000.
This is a slow bull market. The top will not be too high. The top of the big bull market is around 150,000.
Second, if the trend follows the previous bull market peak after the U.S. election day in the year before, a new bull market will start directly, or at least a small bull market peak will appear. Refer to the upper track of the monthly line at 83, and a strong pull may be close to 90, probably in early December. Refer to the figure below.
It is a position that can be moved up and down
Because it is currently at a relatively high position
Without other auxiliary tools such as Qimen
Technical means
Both up and down
First, if we follow the trend of last year, repeatedly wash the market and delay time, waiting for liquidity to be replenished, then referring to the single top trend given at the top, we can return to the weekly middle track around 64 in early December.
Then it will gradually move towards 80,000, and at that time the liquidity can reach 90,000.
This is a slow bull market. The top will not be too high. The top of the big bull market is around 150,000.
Second, if the trend follows the previous bull market peak after the U.S. election day in the year before, a new bull market will start directly, or at least a small bull market peak will appear. Refer to the upper track of the monthly line at 83, and a strong pull may be close to 90, probably in early December. Refer to the figure below.
See original
The History of Economic Crises in the U.S. and Their Impact on the U.S. Stock Market
Overall, it is common for the U.S. stock market to decline for two to three years, with declines of 80-90% being the norm, so everyone must be psychologically prepared to handle it.
Here are the historical records:
Major economic recessions or depressions experienced by the U.S. stock market are often accompanied by severe market declines and prolonged recovery times. Here are some significant market crashes along with their declines and durations:
1. The Great Depression of 1929
• Decline: The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell from 381 points to 41 points, approximately an 89% decline.
• Duration: From October 1929 to July 1932 (about 3 years).
• Background: Economic overheating, the bursting of speculative bubbles, along with bank failures and credit tightening, led to a global economic recession.
Here are the historical records:
Major economic recessions or depressions experienced by the U.S. stock market are often accompanied by severe market declines and prolonged recovery times. Here are some significant market crashes along with their declines and durations:
1. The Great Depression of 1929
• Decline: The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell from 381 points to 41 points, approximately an 89% decline.
• Duration: From October 1929 to July 1932 (about 3 years).
• Background: Economic overheating, the bursting of speculative bubbles, along with bank failures and credit tightening, led to a global economic recession.
See original
Biggs predicted that Trump would be assassinated, the bullet passing through his right ear
He predicted another assassination
Then he predicted Trump would be elected
All of the above are correct
Next, he predicts there will be a financial crisis
The stock market will crash
It will last for several years
The time is roughly around Christmas
So, it will either be this Christmas or next year
This year Trump hasn't taken office yet
It doesn't seem like there will be any major movements yet
Just in time for next year, the last year of the bull market
Running away in October next year 🤪🤪🤪
$BTC
He predicted another assassination
Then he predicted Trump would be elected
All of the above are correct
Next, he predicts there will be a financial crisis
The stock market will crash
It will last for several years
The time is roughly around Christmas
So, it will either be this Christmas or next year
This year Trump hasn't taken office yet
It doesn't seem like there will be any major movements yet
Just in time for next year, the last year of the bull market
Running away in October next year 🤪🤪🤪
$BTC
See original
Six-hour lower and middle tracks are both good short-term bottom-fishing positions
But can only be with low leverage
Note
I will only go in with 0.5 times
Currently continuously converging
It should converge around next Monday
Pay attention to whether it can retrace properly on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday
No hurry $BTC
But can only be with low leverage
Note
I will only go in with 0.5 times
Currently continuously converging
It should converge around next Monday
Pay attention to whether it can retrace properly on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday
No hurry $BTC
See original
1111 Weekly Qimen Trend Analysis
The following is a weekly trend analysis generated by AI from Qimen.
Note that this can only be used as a reference and cannot be used directly as a basis for trading, for entertainment purposes only.
It is essential to fully understand the risks before trading.
And be prepared for the possibility of misjudgment.
Overall, the outlook for next week is favorable for repeated fluctuations and upward movement.
The following is the full analysis:
In the analysis of Qimen Dunjia, the situation of the nine palaces on November 11, 2024, in the Year of Jia Chen, Month of Yi Hai, Day of Ji Mao, and Hour of Jia Zi is Yin Dunjia with six formations, the value symbol is Tian Xin, and the value agent is Kai Men. The specific layout of the nine palaces is as follows:
• Li Palace (Fire Palace): Gui Yi, Liu He, Tian Ying, Jing Men
• Kun Palace (Earth Palace): Xin Yi, Tai Yin, Qin Rui, Si Men
Note that this can only be used as a reference and cannot be used directly as a basis for trading, for entertainment purposes only.
It is essential to fully understand the risks before trading.
And be prepared for the possibility of misjudgment.
Overall, the outlook for next week is favorable for repeated fluctuations and upward movement.
The following is the full analysis:
In the analysis of Qimen Dunjia, the situation of the nine palaces on November 11, 2024, in the Year of Jia Chen, Month of Yi Hai, Day of Ji Mao, and Hour of Jia Zi is Yin Dunjia with six formations, the value symbol is Tian Xin, and the value agent is Kai Men. The specific layout of the nine palaces is as follows:
• Li Palace (Fire Palace): Gui Yi, Liu He, Tian Ying, Jing Men
• Kun Palace (Earth Palace): Xin Yi, Tai Yin, Qin Rui, Si Men
See original
In the short term, it is normal for a pullback to 74 on Sunday and Monday
It belongs to a healthy pullback
At that time, you can use a little leverage
Overall position should not exceed twice
That is to say, cash counts as one time, leverage counts as one time
Look at an 85 at the end of the month to see if it gives it
$BTC
It belongs to a healthy pullback
At that time, you can use a little leverage
Overall position should not exceed twice
That is to say, cash counts as one time, leverage counts as one time
Look at an 85 at the end of the month to see if it gives it
$BTC
See original
So much money is pouring into ETFs
Don't get excited
Don't get agitated
Most of it is from American retail investors
So let's compare the negative correlation between inflows and outflows and trends
Are you afraid?
Anyway, I'm scared
I'll leverage again after FOMO is eliminated
This is also the reason why I decisively only hold spot
The main players are controlling at a high position
Aren't they unloading?
On-chain data
Accounts of long-term holders with over a year of holding are continuously reducing
Among them are the main players!
$BTC
Don't get excited
Don't get agitated
Most of it is from American retail investors
So let's compare the negative correlation between inflows and outflows and trends
Are you afraid?
Anyway, I'm scared
I'll leverage again after FOMO is eliminated
This is also the reason why I decisively only hold spot
The main players are controlling at a high position
Aren't they unloading?
On-chain data
Accounts of long-term holders with over a year of holding are continuously reducing
Among them are the main players!
$BTC
See original
I have seen some posts about various teachers and influencers on the platform causing people to go bankrupt and cry poor.
Although it is self-inflicted,
I still want to say that
for the sake of making money,
you lead novices to follow your trades and shout signals,
making it convenient for you to earn commissions and rebates.
Doesn't your conscience hurt?
And you want to profit from both long and short positions?
Who can say they can help people make money 100% of the time? Never face a margin call?
I often operate at two or three times leverage and still can't make it work.
Are you the only one who can?
Stop harming others already.
This post criticizes paid influencers online.
That's all! $BTC
Although it is self-inflicted,
I still want to say that
for the sake of making money,
you lead novices to follow your trades and shout signals,
making it convenient for you to earn commissions and rebates.
Doesn't your conscience hurt?
And you want to profit from both long and short positions?
Who can say they can help people make money 100% of the time? Never face a margin call?
I often operate at two or three times leverage and still can't make it work.
Are you the only one who can?
Stop harming others already.
This post criticizes paid influencers online.
That's all! $BTC
See original
1108 Weekly Trading Review
Last week I fully utilized three times leverage.
Then I stubbornly held through the daily mid-line callback 🤪
Originally planned to hit the daily lower line at 65 with five times leverage.
Result: the dog trader didn't give it 🤪
Plan went bankrupt, directly opened up.
Sold a total of two times leverage at 702, 752, and 762.
Currently only holding full stock, which is one time leverage.
Wait for a callback and gradually move in a bit.
Reviewing the entire operation, the problems found:
One, bottom-fishing was too quick; I should have expanded expectations and gradually bought in batches, for example, every four hours, six hours, twelve hours, and at the daily lower line buy in batches at 0.5 times leverage, this would lower the risk of bottom-fishing, although it may lead to not fully bottom-fishing resulting in similar returns.
Then I stubbornly held through the daily mid-line callback 🤪
Originally planned to hit the daily lower line at 65 with five times leverage.
Result: the dog trader didn't give it 🤪
Plan went bankrupt, directly opened up.
Sold a total of two times leverage at 702, 752, and 762.
Currently only holding full stock, which is one time leverage.
Wait for a callback and gradually move in a bit.
Reviewing the entire operation, the problems found:
One, bottom-fishing was too quick; I should have expanded expectations and gradually bought in batches, for example, every four hours, six hours, twelve hours, and at the daily lower line buy in batches at 0.5 times leverage, this would lower the risk of bottom-fishing, although it may lead to not fully bottom-fishing resulting in similar returns.
See original
The three-hour lower bound will likely converge around 73
#Tonight
The four-hour lower bound will likely converge around 72
#Sunday
The six-hour lower bound will likely converge around 70
#Next Monday and Tuesday
The above three positions are support lines within a few days
If they can't hold and break down
Then it means at least a trip to the daily lower bound for a correction
It will likely converge around the position of 67
#After next Sunday
If there is indeed an opportunity
I still expect a big rise by the end of the month
$BTC
#Tonight
The four-hour lower bound will likely converge around 72
#Sunday
The six-hour lower bound will likely converge around 70
#Next Monday and Tuesday
The above three positions are support lines within a few days
If they can't hold and break down
Then it means at least a trip to the daily lower bound for a correction
It will likely converge around the position of 67
#After next Sunday
If there is indeed an opportunity
I still expect a big rise by the end of the month
$BTC
See original
To what extent has liquidity collapsed?
See the figure below
If it strongly pulls above 85 next week
Then it will be completely exhausted
The Federal Reserve is not significantly easing
And there is no large-scale issuance
So it won't go too far
More optimistic about repeated fluctuations and corrections
To obtain liquidity
$BTC
See the figure below
If it strongly pulls above 85 next week
Then it will be completely exhausted
The Federal Reserve is not significantly easing
And there is no large-scale issuance
So it won't go too far
More optimistic about repeated fluctuations and corrections
To obtain liquidity
$BTC
See original
This is last week's analysis
Perfectly predicted the market
Bottom area of the lower track in six hours
Top area near 78
So currently, be cautious about going long
Best to hold spot
If it drops to 74, can add a little leverage with a light position
Cannot go too much
Because liquidity is still scarce
If you want to go further
A pullback to the three-day line would be best
$BTC
Perfectly predicted the market
Bottom area of the lower track in six hours
Top area near 78
So currently, be cautious about going long
Best to hold spot
If it drops to 74, can add a little leverage with a light position
Cannot go too much
Because liquidity is still scarce
If you want to go further
A pullback to the three-day line would be best
$BTC
LIVE比特币走势
--
Recent years' historical high near trend reference
One, in 2020, broke the high point of the 2017 bull market.
Repeatedly made two 12-hour lower trend retracements at the 2017 high point, then attacked with a big bull.
Two, in the second half of 2021, broke the high point of the bull market in the first half of the year.
After breaking 65, make a 12-hour retracement, then hit a high point of 69 to end the bull market.
Three, at the beginning of 2024, break the high point of the 2021 bull market.
After rising to 69, a violent washout occurs, making a 6-hour lower trend dip, then rising to a small bull peak of 73777.
Four, currently retracing after breaking the high point of 73777 in the first half of the year.
Currently, the 6-hour lower trend has dropped to the level again. According to past logic, it is expected to support and then reach another high point to end, around 75 to 78.
Repeatedly made two 12-hour lower trend retracements at the 2017 high point, then attacked with a big bull.
Two, in the second half of 2021, broke the high point of the bull market in the first half of the year.
After breaking 65, make a 12-hour retracement, then hit a high point of 69 to end the bull market.
Three, at the beginning of 2024, break the high point of the 2021 bull market.
After rising to 69, a violent washout occurs, making a 6-hour lower trend dip, then rising to a small bull peak of 73777.
Four, currently retracing after breaking the high point of 73777 in the first half of the year.
Currently, the 6-hour lower trend has dropped to the level again. According to past logic, it is expected to support and then reach another high point to end, around 75 to 78.
See original
Look at the big picture and ignore short-term fluctuations!
Whales bought a lot of Bitcoin yesterday
What? You said the whale is the buyer? 🤪
75 still takes over? Okay then
You are more powerful than a giant whale.
Check out the exchange
Bitcoin stock on exchanges hits historic low
Who bought them all?
What will happen next?
Leave it for everyone to think about
2.6 million pieces remaining
Will the United States’ strategic reserves be sold out in seconds?
So who will have the pricing power?
$BTC
What? You said the whale is the buyer? 🤪
75 still takes over? Okay then
You are more powerful than a giant whale.
Check out the exchange
Bitcoin stock on exchanges hits historic low
Who bought them all?
What will happen next?
Leave it for everyone to think about
2.6 million pieces remaining
Will the United States’ strategic reserves be sold out in seconds?
So who will have the pricing power?
$BTC
See original
The lower track of the one-hour market is at 741. Those who are short-term and lightly invested can enter a little. Those who seek stability can wait for the weekend’s four-hour and six-hour correction and convergence. Enter again at the lower track. It may be around 71 or 72. If given the opportunity, we will continue to see a weak rise next week. $BTC
See original
Today I will write about the biggest difference between the last two bull markets and the past. In the past, the bull market was in a state of wild growth. Funds continued to pour in. There was no top. So most of the power was spent in the process of rising. The time for the decline and callback was not enough. The time for washing the plate was naturally insufficient. Because wild growth does not require washing the plate. The method of plummeting to clean leverage was often used. In the last two bull markets, liquidity was stretched. The main force had to wash the plate in various ways to obtain liquidity in order to support further growth. The overall policy environment was not ample. So, it was reflected in the trend comparison. In the past, each bull market had at most one weekly level callback. Now there may be two, three or even four times. Repeated callbacks to clean leverage, forcing longs to take over at high positions. So in the next year, there is a high probability that there will be another weekly level cleanup. Not to mention the three-day line callback, at least one or two times. Everyone, please be safe! $BTC
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