One of the whales that have caused the cryptocurrency market to fall recently can be seen as miners.

Until recently, the market had not been able to completely absorb the selling volume from miners, but it can be said that the selling pressure from miners has been greatly reduced for the following two reasons.

1. The quantity of Bitcoin sent by miners to exchanges for sale has decreased significantly since May.

2. The volume of the OTC Desk used by miners for selling purposes was piling up as they could not find a buyer until recently, but on June 29th, the volume of the OTC Desk was all consumed. It's highly likely that someone has shown up to purchase the Bitcoin.

Miners' selling pressure has decreased significantly and their selling volume is being digested quickly.

Sufficient conditions have been created to continue the upward rally again in the third quarter of 2024.

Written by Crypto Dan

Last time, we talked about the Deribit exchange (Photo 2), and since then, Ethereum whales have continued to leave traces.

In particular, we can pay attention to the traces of whales on the Bybit exchange. As in previous periods, we are seeing a pattern of market buying activity reviving during price decline phases (Photo 1).

Although not as prominent as in Ethereum, Bitcoin whales on the Bybit exchange are also showing activity (Photo 3).

It is important to continue monitoring the direct traces of these whales.

Written by Mignolet

Over the past two years, the Bitcoin market has experienced significant growth, influencing the prices of other cryptocurrencies as well. This period has been more promising compared to the bearish market of 2021 and 2022.

To estimate the current state of the Bitcoin market, one of the most effective contemporary tools is the 60-Day Realized to Market Capitalization Variance (RCV) metric. This metric measures the two-month change in the realized cap relative to Bitcoin's market value, making it highly useful for long-term decision-making and investing with the Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) model.

According to this metric, Bitcoin has reached its risk zone. However, there is still potential for market growth to higher levels, such as 0.70. While it's impossible to predict the future with certainty, we can suggest that a demand surge around the 0.50 level in the metric could behave similarly to 2017, potentially setting a new long-term high for Bitcoin.

For Bitcoin investors, these levels are useful for incremental buying and selling, allowing you to DCA this valuable asset according to your long-term investment goals.

Written by Crazzyblockk

The price of TON remains close to its all-time high but has entered a more stable period over the past few months. The price is gradually increasing, while volatility (represented by the blue bars in the graph) has continued to decrease in recent months.

This indicates that the current price range is narrower than it has been over the last 60 days. Typically, periods of lower volatility are followed by periods of higher volatility, and vice versa. Therefore, based on this chart, it is reasonable to anticipate a volatility expansion in the near future.

I would recommend using other on-chain metrics to determine the direction. You can find these on this dashboard down below. Be prepared! 😉

Written by maartunn

While Ethereum currently sits at a crucial support region with significant potential demand, examining the futures market sentiment is vital for predicting its next movements. The chart highlights the Ethereum Open Interest metric and the 7-day moving average of the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio metric alongside the price.

As depicted in the chart, upon reaching the critical support level of $3.3K, the Open Interest metric has shown a slight uptick. This increase signals heightened futures market activity, likely driven by participants' interest in opening long positions. A similar trend is observed in the taker buy/sell ratio metric, which has surged sharply, nearing a value of 1. This development strongly suggests a potential rise in demand and increased buying activity in the perpetual markets, reinforcing the bullish scenario.

If this trend persists and both metrics continue to climb, a significant bullish rebound will become more probable.

Written by ShayanBTC

Based on the metric above, the current market conditions are estimated by considering the realized price of Bitcoin held by short-term holders (less than 155 days) and new entrants (less than 1 month). According to the metric, holders with Bitcoin for less than 6 months are collectively experiencing a loss of approximately 3%, while those holding for less than 1 month are facing a 6.6% loss at current prices.

Since the beginning of the 2023 bull market, Bitcoin has managed to recover from losses in the range of 10-11% for short-term holders and continue its prolonged upward trend. Consequently, the current loss is still smaller compared to previous corrections, suggesting that the short-term market conditions do not appear to be critically adverse.

Written by Crazzyblockk

The Exchange NetFlow Heatmap emerges as an innovative tool to analyze the movement of cryptocurrencies in and out of exchanges, offering valuable insights into market behavior. Values below 0 signify more outflows than inflows, while values above 0 indicate more inflows than outflows. Currently, we observe significant trends that can significantly influence the prices of major cryptocurrencies.

Inflows versus Outflows: A Crucial Indicator

Projects like OCEAN and FET are witnessing a substantial increase in inflows to exchanges compared to their recent history. This influx may signal a potential excess of immediate supply, historically exerting downward pressure on prices. Investors need to stay vigilant of these movements as they indicate possible adjustments in cryptocurrency values in the near future.

On the other hand, cryptocurrencies like LINK, DODO, SNX, and DAR are showing a growing interest in outflows from exchanges. This phenomenon suggests sustained demand and a strong public interest in accumulating these projects over the long term. When more coins are withdrawn from exchanges than deposited, it can indicate potential scarcity in the market, creating favorable conditions for future appreciation.

Implications for the Market and Investment Strategies

For investors, understanding the Exchange NetFlow Heatmap is essential for formulating effective strategies. Careful analysis of these data can provide a competitive advantage by anticipating price movements and market trends. Monitoring the behavior of specific projects, in terms of both inflows and outflows, allows for a clearer view of the underlying dynamics in the cryptocurrency market.

The Exchange NetFlow Heatmap not only reveals cryptocurrency behavior patterns but also provides insight into investor intentions. This deep understanding can help market participants navigate confidently in a dynamic and volatile environment, seizing opportunities as they arise.

Written by joaowedson

With the drop in bitcoin price, NUPL has brought about a cooling phase. To briefly explain NUPL, it is calculated as market cap - realized cap / market cap = NUPL.

Some important levels await us at this value. Where to invest and where to take profits are very important. We will interpret this data straightforwardly without any additional input.

There have been color changes with the rise and fall of the price. What do these mean? In short, they show us how much fear or greed there is. The value of 0 is a threshold level; when the price falls below this level, most people are at a loss because the realized value remains higher while the market value is lower. Below the value of 0 is a great area for investment, as investments made in this way have resulted in very good outcomes in the long term.

Where is it suitable for selling? Here, the levels of 0.25, 0.50, 0.75, and 1 come to the forefront. When we examine the previous bull market levels, we see that the peak level of 0.75 was tested 4 times. This is the peak of the bull and the area of excess. Here, everyone behaves very greedily, and people flock to the market; it is precisely at these levels that exits should be made.

There are also cooling phases that occur during bull trends. These need to be read correctly. Like in 2019-2020, NUPL passed 0.50 and then entered a cooling phase, falling below 0.50, then 0.25, and finally below 0, reaching a very suitable area for investment. Now, we cannot know how long this cooling will last; we need additional data.

It is hovering around 0.50; breaking this level could take us back to 0.25, and as it goes back, the selling pressure will decrease. As it goes up, the selling pressure will increase. I have shown you how to use and interpret this metric straightforwardly. I hope this has been helpful.

Written by XBTManager

When we look at the miner reserves on the Bitcoin side, it is observed that the increases have started. The pressure created by miner sales seems to have eased. Regardless of other metrics, this data creates a bullish expectation. Miners are the oldest and most experienced segment of this sector. Therefore, it is positive for us that they pause sales and increase reserves.

Written by KriptoBaykusV2

Ultra-long-term Bitcoin holders (+7years) tend to send their Bitcoin to exchanges during bull markets

They sent a lot of Bitcoin to exchanges during the last Bitcoin bull market in 2017-2021

Currently, ultra-long term Bitcoin holders are not sending Bitcoin to exchanges

Ultra-long term Bitcoin holders want a stronger bull market

Written by crypto sunmoon

Active Addresses refer to the number of unique addresses on the BTC on-chain network that show significant activity. This metric allows us to understand the activity level on the BTC network, investor participation, and market trends.

By applying the 🔴monthly moving average (30DMA) and the 🔵annual moving average (365DMA) to this metric, we can observe the momentum. Historically, when the 30DMA strongly crosses below the 365DMA (death cross), the market has passed the cycle top and entered a bearish phase.

In the current cycle, the death cross has persisted since the all-time high (ATH). Although the decline is not steep enough to definitively declare a bear market, it is important to be cautious of a potential deepening correction. If the 30DMA drops further, it would be prudent to prepare for a macro bearish reversal.

Written by Yonsei_dent

One of the whales that have caused the cryptocurrency market to fall recently have been miners.

After the Bitcoin halving, mining rewards were cut in half, so older model mining machines were no longer used as they were no longer cost-effective.

As a result, mining activity decreased, and miners began selling Bitcoin in OTC transactions to cover mining operation costs.

The current market can be seen as being in the process of digesting this sell-off, and fortunately, the quantity and number of bitcoins miners are sending out of their wallets has been rapidly decreasing recently.

In other words, the selling pressure of miners is weakening, and if all of their selling volume is absorbed, a situation may be created where the upward rally can continue again.

Positive movements in the cryptocurrency market can be expected in the third quarter of 2024.

Written by Crypto Dan

In a constantly evolving universe of cryptocurrencies, few assets manage to stand out as impressively as TON. In 2024, this project not only surprised but also distinguished itself by repeatedly breaking its historical high, while most altcoins have yet to reach new price highs.

The Price Drawdown Heatmap by Crypto: A Revealing Analysis

An initial analysis through the "Price Drawdown Heatmap by Crypto" provides a clear view of altcoins that have achieved new price highs. Values close to 0 indicate that the All-Time High (ATH) price has been surpassed. TON shone in this scenario, renewing its historical highs several times throughout 2024. This achievement not only demonstrates the project's resilience but also its ability to attract investors in a highly competitive market.

The Price Drawdown from ATH Chart: Measuring Performance

Another valuable metric for assessing TON's performance is the "Price Drawdown from ATH," which quantifies the percentage relative to its last historical peak. By remaining competitive and surpassing its own records, TON not only shows continuous growth but also effective management of its inherent volatility in the cryptocurrency market.

Written by joaowedson

While Ethereum currently rests at a critical support region with significant potential demand, analyzing the futures market sentiment is essential for forecasting its next moves. The chart highlights the Ethereum funding rate metric, which indicates whether buyers or sellers are executing orders more aggressively. Positive funding rates suggest bullish sentiment, whereas negative rates imply bearish sentiment.

The funding rate metric recently showed a notable increase after a period of slight declines, which coincided with a corrective phase in Ethereum’s price. This uptick suggests that demand is present near the crucial support level of $3.3K, potentially halting further downward pressure and initiating a bullish reversal. If the funding rate metric continues its upward trend, it indicates that the futures market sentiment is turning bullish, making a mid-term bullish reversal more likely.

Written by ShayanBTC

Funding rates for OKX, Binance, Bybit, Deribit, HTX, and BitMEX vary significantly, reflecting different trading behaviors. Positive FR means longs pay shorts, indicating a preference for long positions, while negative FR means shorts pay longs, indicating a preference for short positions.

Seeing the funding rates drop again, it looks like we are in a phase of waiting to see when this will end. I expect we will need to watch the market while taking breaks.

Written by nino

As Bitcoin institutionalization grows, trading outside the open market is becoming increasingly common.

OTC trading involves trading outside the order books of exchanges and ETFs, but requires a high volume of liquidity among institutional investors.

Today, the main way these reserves are growing is through distributions made directly by miners, which has been contributing to this growth.

However, it also indicates that many of these institutional investors are not providing enough buying demand, corroborating previous analyses that pointed to risk aversion among large players.

Approximately 90 thousand BTC entered OTC in the last 30 days, increasing its reserves to approximately 293 thousand BTC.

Written by caueconomy

The short-term average realized price(=sth price) is an important key level for the BTC price, typically acting as resistance in bear markets and support in bull markets.

In fact, the sth price was a strong support for the price during the bull market in '23.Q4 and '24.Q.

However, with the recent market decline, the price has fallen below the sth price and investor sentiment has become more subdued indeed!

If the price does not move above the sth price quickly, it will likely turn into a resistance level for the price going forward.

Written by SignalQuant

Short-term holders' realized price is around $62-63K. These are investors who bought BTC within the last 155 days or less. On-chain data shows that the longer someone holds BTC, the more likely they are to keep holding. Short-term investors, however, tend to be more skittish.

Many of these recent buyers got in through Spot ETFs. If we take GBTC out of the picture, the realized price for Spot ETF investors drops to around $55-56K. This means these investors are newer to the market and more likely to react to news and market changes, possibly selling at break-even or with a small loss.

Right now, sell-side liquidity for BTC is strong due to several factors: actions by the US and German governments, moves by miners, the Mt. Gox situation, and the uneasy positions of short-term holders. The big question is whether Spot ETF investors can pass this test. We’ll see if they have a long-term vision or if they’ll bail out quickly.

Written by Kripto Mevsimi

1/ #BTC Open interest remains high. What's driving this? The short positions are getting greedy, with $8B in shorts compared to $1B in longs.

It looks like we need a further cooldown. I suspect we're seeing a repeat of the April-May pattern

2/ #BTC Liquidation Map. Who is getting liquidated first?

3/ #Bitcoin supply in profit has dipped to 76%, which typically signals a great buying opportunity. If you believe, like I do, that we're still in a bull market

4/ #Bitcoin long-term holders haven't signaled a sell yet.

The bull market remains active 🟢

Another retest is likely 🟡

Expect ongoing FUD news for a while 🔴

Written by elcryptotavo

In the past, around March 2024, when the MVRV was at the level of 2.8, I analyzed that Bitcoin had reached an overheating point during the recovery phase. At the same time, I predicted that a price or temporal adjustment of Bitcoin (adjustment of MVRV) was necessary.

Since then, the current MVRV has decreased to around 1.99, with the MV being less than twice the RV. Additionally, it is approaching the mid-band of the Bollinger Bands (a region distinguishing between an uptrend and a downtrend) and the 4-year moving average based on Bitcoin's 4-year cycle. (These are at 1.89 and 1.82 respectively, indicating there is still a gap.)

In the past, during peaks of overheating in recovery phases, the market typically adjusted to these regions. The MV would come down, or the RV would go up, showing signs of resolving the MVRV overheating.

Moreover, these signs were usually observed just before the start of a parabolic rise. It is likely a collaboration of profit-taking by smart money who bought at the bottom and the influx of new funds driven by news and SNS mentions.

The continued balance of these factors resolved the MVRV overheating (the disparity between the market price and the actual purchase price), which generally indicated a local bottom.

We need to watch closely to see if this will be the case this time as well.

Written by CoinLupin